Marginal abatement cost estimates for non-CO2 greenhouse gases: lessons from RECLAIM

Recognizing the potential for over- as well as under-estimating the mitigation costs of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in an offset programme, this article examines the accuracy of cost estimates prepared by government agencies for the control of other types of emissions from small/medium sources via an offset programme. Specifically, analogy is made to the control of SO_x and NO_x controlled by California's Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) Program. Even allowing for the energy crisis in 2000–2001 that drove up NO_x emissions and control costs, it appears that the engineering cost methods used turned out to be generally accurate, defined as ±25%. Although such a finding does not ensure that the same results will apply to the case of non-CO₂ GHGs, it certainly reinforces the growing literature on ex ante—ex post cost comparisons of environmental controls.     

Evaluation of Simulated CO_2 Concentrations from the CarbonTracker-Asia Model Using In-situ Observations over East Asia for 2009–2013

The CarbonTracker(CT) model has been used in previous studies for understanding and predicting the sources, sinks, and dynamics that govern the distribution of atmospheric CO_2 at varying ranges of spatial and temporal scales. However, there are still challenges for reproducing accurate model-simulated CO_2 concentrations close to the surface, typically associated with high spatial heterogeneity and land cover. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of nested-grid CT model simulations of CO_2 based on the CT2016 version through comparison with in-situ observations over East Asia covering the period 2009–13. We selected sites located in coastal, remote, inland, and mountain areas. The results are presented at diurnal and seasonal time periods. At target stations, model agreement with in-situ observations was varied in capturing the diurnal cycle. Overall, biases were less than 6.3 ppm on an all-hourly mean basis, and this was further reduced to a maximum of 4.6 ppm when considering only the daytime. For instance, at Anmyeondo, a small bias was obtained in winter, on the order of 0.2 ppm. The model revealed a diurnal amplitude of CO_2 that was nearly flat in winter at Gosan and Anmyeondo stations, while slightly overestimated in the summertime. The model's performance in reproducing the diurnal cycle remains a challenge and requires improvement. The model showed better agreement with the observations in capturing the seasonal variations of CO_2 during daytime at most sites, with a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.70 to 0.99. Also, model biases were within-0.3 and 1.3 ppm, except for inland stations(7.7 ppm).     

Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part II. Accounting for Adaptation and CO2 Direct Effects

We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses tolow-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO₂), significantly different from simulated yield responses tohigh-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO₂)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 × CO₂ versus 2 × CO₂)climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO₂ levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity.     

DMS and SO2 at Baring Head, New Zealand: Implications for the Yield of SO2 from DMS

Atmospheric dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were measured at Baring Head, New Zealandduring February and March 2000. Anti-correlated DMS and SO₂ diurnalcycles, consistent with the photochemical production of SO₂ from DMS, were observed in clean southerly air off the ocean. The data is used to infer a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation. The estimated yields are highly dependent on assumptions about the DMS oxidation rate. Fitting the measured data in a photochemical box model using model-generated OH levels and the Hynes et al. (1986) DMS + OH rate constant suggests that theSO₂ yield is 50–100%, similar to current estimates for the tropical Pacific.However, the observed amplitude of the DMS diurnal cycle suggests that the oxidation rate is higher than that used by the model, and therefore, that theSO₂ yield is lower in the range of 20–40%.     

Assessment of the soil CO2 gradient method for soil CO2 efflux measurements: comparison of six models in the calculation of the relative gas diffusion coefficient

This paper uses a refined soil gradient method to estimate soil CO₂ efflux. Six different models are used to determine the relative gas diffusion coefficient (ξ). A weighted harmonic averaging is used to estimate the soil CO₂ diffusion coefficient, yielding a better estimate of soil CO₂ efflux. The resulting soil CO₂ efflux results are then compared to the soil CO₂ efflux measured with a soil chamber. Depending on the choice of ξ model used, the estimated soil CO₂ efflux using the gradient method reasonably approximates the efflux obtained using the soil chamber method. In addition, the estimated soil CO₂ efflux obtained by this improved method is well described by an exponential function of soil temperature at a depth of 0.05 m with the temperature sensitivity ( Q ₁₀) of 1.81 and a linear function of soil moisture at a depth of 0.12 m, in general agreement with previous findings. These results suggest that the gradient method is a practical cost-effective means to measure soil CO₂ emissions. Results from the present study suggest that the gradient method can be used successfully to measure soil CO₂ efflux provided that proper attention is paid to the judicious use of the proper diffusion coefficient.     

Modelling Fluxes and Concentrations of CO 2 , H 2 O and Sensible Heat Within and Above a Mountain Meadow Canopy: A Comparison of Three Lagrangian Models and Three Parameterisation Options for the Lagrangian Time Scale

Two simple analytical Lagrangian and a Lagrangian random walk model,together with three options for the parameterisation of the Lagrangian timescale, are compared in their ability to predict fluxes and scalar concentrationsof CO₂, H₂O and sensible heat within and above a mountain meadowin the eastern Alps. Results indicate that both scalar concentrations and ecosystemfluxes exhibit little sensitivity to the differences between the investigated modelsand may be predicted satisfactorily by one of the simpler models so long as thesource/sink strength is parameterised correctly. Model results also show littlesensitivity to the parameterisation of the vertical variation of the Lagrangiantime scale, yet the increase of the Lagrangian time scale towards the groundpredicted by one of the three investigated parameterisation options resulted inless agreement with measurements as compared to the other two, which assumedthe Lagrangian time scale to be either constant with height or to decay towardszero at the ground surface. Correspondence between simulated and measuredfluxes and scalar concentrations of CO₂, H₂O and sensible heat weregenerally satisfactory, except for shortly after the meadow was cut, when thesignificant increase of respiratory carbon losses could not be captured by themodel.