Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %.     

Social capital,trust, and adaptation to climate change: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Climate change is expected to have particularly severe effects on poor agrarian populations. Rural households in developing countries adapt to the risks and impacts of climate change both individually and collectively. Empirical research has shown that access to capital—financial, human, physical, and social—is critical for building resilience and fostering adaptation to environmental stresses. Little attention, however, has been paid to how social capital generally might facilitate adaptation through trust and cooperation, particularly among rural households and communities. This paper addresses the question of how social capital affects adaptation to climate change by rural households by focusing on the relationship of household and collective adaptation behaviors. A mixed-methods approach allows us to better account for the complexity of social institutions—at the household, community, and government levels—which drive climate adaptation outcomes. We use data from interviews, household surveys, and field experiments conducted in 20 communities with 400 households in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Our results suggest that qualitative measures of trust predict contributions to public goods, a result that is consistent with the theorized role of social capital in collective action. Yet qualitative trust is negatively related to private household-level adaptation behaviors, which raises the possibility that social capital may, paradoxically, be detrimental to private adaptation. Policymakers should account for the potential difference in public and private adaptation behaviors in relation to trust and social capital when designing interventions for climate adaptation.     

Everyday Adaptation: Theorizing climate change adaptation in daily life

Climate science to date demonstrates that natural and human systems must urgently adapt. Adaptation refers to changes in societies and ecological systems as they respond to both actual and anticipated impacts of the changing climate. While adaptation is not limited to the level of planning and policy, existing adaptation practice privileges institutional action. We argue that the definition of adaptation should be broadened to include the small, incremental changes made in our daily lives to accommodate the shifting ecologies in which we live. Drawing on critical adaptation research and our own ethnographic fieldwork in the Global South, we define everyday adaptation as the shifted ways a person works, eats, lives and thinks in response to climate realities, rather than the hardening of coastlines or the relocation of vulnerable structures. We integrate and build on existing scholarship on adaptation and the everyday to theorize the logics of everyday, hyperlocal adaptation. This hyperlocal scale is a critical component of any definition of adaptation and a useful lens for studying the way much of the global population adapts and will continue to adapt their lives to climate change. We offer two theoretical components of adaptation revealed by the everyday - adaptation labor and value adaptation – as lenses to see changes in everyday action. Through considering hyperlocal action, we then identify and explore four logics of everyday adaptation actions: lifestyle stability, socio-ecological reactivity, livelihood flexibility, and community capacity. Everyday adaptations are limited by individuals’ capacity to adapt and thereby determine the longevity, livability, and quality of life of places on the frontlines of climate change. We argue for understanding the aggregate effects of everyday adaptation in order to better align the actions of those living with climate change in their everyday lives and the large-scale adaptation projects aiming to protect them.     

Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes

One of the most controversial conclusions to emerge from many of the first generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate policy was the perceived economic optimality of negligible near-term abatement of greenhouse gases. Typically, such studies were conducted using smoothly varying climate change scenarios or impact responses. Abrupt changes observed in the climatic record and documented in current models could substantially alter the stringency of economically optimal IAM policies. Such abrupt climatic changes — or consequent impacts — would be less foreseeable and provide less time to adapt, and thus would have far greater economic or environmental impacts than gradual warming. We extend conventional, smooth IAM analysis by coupling a climate model capable of one type of abrupt change to a well-established energy–economy model (DICE). We compare the DICE optimal policy using the standard climate sub-model to our version that allows for abrupt change — and consequent enhanced climate damage — through changes in the strength (and possible collapse) of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). We confirm the potential significance of abrupt climate change to economically optimal IAM policies, thus calling into question all previous work neglecting such possibilities — at the least for the wide ranges of relevant social and climate system parameters we consider. In addition, we obtain an emergent property of our coupled social–natural system model: “optimal policies” that do consider abrupt changes may, under relatively low discount rates, calculate emission control levels sufficient to avoid significant abrupt change, whereas “optimal policies” disregarding abrupt change would not prevent this non-linear event. However, there is a threshold in discount rate above which the present value of future damages is so low that even very large enhanced damages in the 22nd century, when a significant abrupt change such as a THC collapse would be most likely to occur, do not increase optimal control levels sufficiently to prevent such a collapse. Thus, any models not accounting for potential abrupt non-linear behavior and its interaction with the discounting formulation are likely to miss an important set of possibilities relevant to the climate policy debate.     

Vulnerability of the oil and gas sector to climate change and extreme weather events

A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector’s supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector’s vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects.     

Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation

Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from ??71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions.     

Integrative propositions for adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change

Conservation policies have changed over time in response to changes in human and ecological drivers. The impacts of climate (and other) concurrent changes prompt consideration of further iterations for both conservation means and objectives. In this paper we bring together previous disparate literatures and apply them to the question of how to adapt conservation polices to suit an era of climate change impacts. Our approach is based on two assertions: (i) that the integration of specific natural and social science insights is essential for understanding and effectively responding to this challenge, and (ii) that in addition to adaptive conservation means (strategies), attention needs to be given to considering adaptive conservation objectives. Specifically, we convert a core set of natural and social science insights into analytical tools known as heuristics or rules of thumb. We then use the heuristics as a basis to offer a list of preliminary propositions that can help inform the development of new means and objectives. The propositions address key considerations including recalibrating management objectives, the role of disturbance in facilitating ecological transitions, and overarching topics relating to governance. The propositions are speculative, and so intended only to outline potential avenues for further empirical research and subsequent refinement. In the spirit of adaptation, we expect and welcome their revision.     

What risks matter? Public views about assisted migration and other climate-adaptive reforestation strategies

The world’s forests play an important role in regulating climate change through their capacity to sequester carbon. At the same time, they are also increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the western Canadian province of British Columbia, changes in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes are already impacting forests. In response to these observed and anticipated changes, adapted reforestation practices are being developed and proposed as a means to help forest ecosystems adjust to changing climatic conditions. One such practice under consideration is assisted migration—planting species within or outside of the native historical range into areas that are anticipated to be climatically suitable in the future. We used a survey of British Columbia’s population at large (n?=?1923) to quantify levels of support for a range of potential reforestation options (including assisted migration) to adapt to climate change, and to explore what factors can help predict this support. Our findings reveal that the likely location of potential public controversy resides not with the potential implementation of assisted migration strategies per se, but rather with assisted migration strategies that involve movement of tree species beyond their native range.     

Potential impacts of climate change on warmwater megafauna: the Florida manatee example (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Most discussions of impacts of Climate Change have focused on species from temperate or polar regions. Impacts to species inhabiting warm climates are often believed to be small relative to those of species living in cooler climates. However, it is evident that some tropical/sub-tropical species, including some marine megafauna may face potentially serious consequences from a changing climate. For example, larger, warmer oceans may appear to benefit marine wildlife species like cold-sensitive Florida manatees; however, findings regarding the impact of global climate change (GCC) on estuaries and nearshore areas of Florida indicate that predicted impacts of climate change may be detrimental to endangered manatees. An examination of how projected impacts of climate change will affect threats to manatees and their habitat indicates that threats may be exacerbated. The most significant threats to the Florida manatee population, such as cold-stress, watercraft collisions, and harmful algal blooms likely will increase. Habitat is likely to be degraded under future climate scenarios. Alterations to Florida’s marine environment are ongoing, yet current manatee management plans do not consider the impacts of climate change. The ability of manatees to adapt to change will be influenced by the speed of change and the degree to which human activity impedes or alters it. To minimize impacts to species we must recognize the influence GCC may have on populations, and begin to identify and implement ways to slow or reverse negative impacts arising from it.     

An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia

Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.     

Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies

We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate change on several environmental systems and resources — ecosystems, food security, water resources, malaria and coastal flooding. These scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected experiment (made using HadCM3), but consider only the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The scenarios are presented for three future time periods — 30-year means centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s — and are expressed with respect to the mean 1961–1990 climate. A global land observed climatology at 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe current climate. Other scenario variables — atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating to population and economy — are also provided. We discuss the limitations of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled.     

山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析——以玉龙雪山地区为例

通过问卷调查和访谈,揭示了青藏高原东南缘玉龙雪山地区居民对当地气候变化及其影响与适应的感知认识。结果表明：居民对玉龙雪山地区气候变化的感知强度与科学研究结果总体上具有很高的一致性。居民对气候变化对农业环境影响的感知不很强烈,认为气候变化并未影响到农作物长势和产量,但对气候变化导致农作物病虫害略有增加和作物生长期延长的感知却持较高赞同度。居民对气候变化及其适应的感知强度总体上与海拔高度相关显著,而对气候变化及其影响的感知则与年龄显著相关。气候变化已促使山区居民调整产业结构,发展低耗水农业经济,并积极参与山区旅游、外出打工,以弥补微薄的农业收入。同时,居民也期望政府能够给予他们一定的经济补偿,以弥补由于干旱和倒春寒等带来的经济损失。     

Turning climate change information into economic and health impacts

The PRUDENCE project has generated a set of spatially and temporally high-resolution climate data, which provides new opportunities for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on economic and human systems in Europe. In this context, we initiated the development of new approaches for linking climate change information and economic studies. We have considered a number of case studies that illustrate how linkages can be established between geographically detailed climate data and economic information. The case studies included wheat production in agriculture, where regional climate data has been linked to farm enterprise data in an integrated model of physical conditions, production inputs and outputs, and farm management practices. Similarly, temperature data were used to assess consequences of extreme heat and excess mortality in urban areas. We give an introduction of an analytical approach for assessing economic impacts of climate change and discuss how economic concepts and valuation paradigms can be applied to climate change impact evaluation. A number of methodological difficulties encountered in economic assessments of climate change impacts are described and a number of issues related to social and private aspects of costs are highlighted. It is argued that, in particular, detailed climate information matters in relation to understanding how private agents react to observed climate data.     

Accessing adaptation: Multiple stressors on livelihoods in the Bolivian highlands under a changing climate

Smallholder farmers continuously confront multiple social and environmental stressors that necessitate changes in livelihood strategies to prevent damages and take advantage of new opportunities, or adaptation. Vulnerability, meaning susceptibility to harm, is attributable to social determinants that limit access to assets, leading to greater exposure and sensitivity to stressors and a limited capacity to adapt. Stressors and adaptation are intertwined because stressors deplete resources available for adaptation, while adaptation may erode resources available to respond to future stressors. We present empirical evidence demonstrating the interactions of multiple stressors and adaptations over time through a case study of indigenous farmers in highland Bolivia. We examine how farmers perceive the stress on their livelihoods, their strategies for adapting to these threats, and the influence of past adaptation and exposure on vulnerability under increasing climatic change. We find that vulnerability changes over time as multiple stressors, such as land scarcity and delayed seasonal rainfall, compound, simultaneously reducing access and demanding the expenditure of household assets for adaptation, including natural capital (water and land), human capital (including labor), and financial, physical, and social capital. To reduce vulnerability over time, constraints on access to key resources must be addressed, allowing households the flexibility to reduce their exposure and improve their adaptive capacity to the multiple stressors they confront.     

Learning to Adapt: Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour.     

Materialising energy and water resources in everyday practices: Insights for securing supply systems

Policies to secure energy and water supplies from the impacts of climate change are currently being developed or are in place in many developed nations. Little is known about how these policies of security, and the systems of resource provision they prioritise, affect householders’ capacity to adapt to climate change. To better understand the connections between resource provision and consumption, this paper explores the notion that different ‘energies’ and ‘waters’ can be conceptualised as material elements of social practices, which shape the way practices are performed. We draw on a study of Australian migrants and their experiences with different resource provision systems in multiple countries, time periods and contexts across three generations. We discuss the differing characteristics of energy and water provision across three broad resource ‘eras’, and the way resources enable or reduce resourcefulness, adaptive capacity and resilience. We find that policy makers may inadvertently reduce householders’ capacity to respond and adapt to climate change impacts by prioritising the resource characteristics of immateriality, abundance and homogeneity. We conclude that policy which prioritises the resource characteristics of materiality, diversity and scarcity is an important, underutilised and currently unacknowledged source of adaptive capacity.     

Extreme weather exposure and support for climate change adaptation

Policy efforts to address climate change are increasingly focused on adaptation, understood as adjustments in human systems to moderate the harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities, related to actual or expected climate impacts. We examine individual-level determinants of support for climate adaptation policies, focusing on whether individuals’ exposure to extreme weather events is associated with their support for climate adaptation policies. Using novel public opinion data on support for a range of adaptation policies, coupled with high resolution geographic data on extreme weather events, we find that individuals experiencing recent extreme weather activity are more likely to support climate change adaptation policy in general, but that the relationship is modest, inconsistent across specific adaptation policies, and diminishes with time. The data thus suggest that experiencing more severe weather may not appreciably increase support for climate adaptation policies.     

Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector.     

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: A case study in the Yakima River Basin,Washington, USA

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.     

Learning with practitioners: climate change adaptation priorities in a Canadian community

Adaptation is already a necessary response to climate change for northern communities. The City of Prince George, in British Columbia, Canada, has been adjusting to impacts for years and there is a high level of local awareness of climate change. The purpose of this study was to collaborate with City staff and other organizations to undertake action-oriented research with the goal of creating a local adaptation strategy. Steps taken toward this goal included: producing downscaled climate scenarios; facilitating a workshop with local practitioners to prioritize impacts; gathering public feedback regarding impacts; and triangulating sources of information to determine community adaptation priorities. Changes to forests and increased flooding are the top local adaptation priorities, and impacts related to transportation, severe weather and water supply are high priorities. Other impacts, such as health effects and agricultural changes, are also important but did not rank highly using a risk framework focused on negative physical effects. Local impacts, actions the City is undertaking to address them and suggestions for implementing adaptation measures are summarized. The process of creating an adaptation strategy has proven highly valuable in Prince George and has precipitated further engagement and action. Due to the low profile of adaptation and limited resources in many communities, researchers and practitioners must capitalize on opportunities to incorporate adaptation into existing plans and processes. Lessons from the Prince George experience can be applied to other communities as they strive to effectively adapt to climate change.