Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options.     

A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change

Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.     

气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。     

气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

 通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。     

Climate change and adaptation: an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects in poorly-gauged regions

Various frameworks related to climate change and adaptations that have been developed to date have notable benefits as well as significant limitations. It is not always practical to implement advanced climate change frameworks in situations with limited data availability. Social aspects, such as people’s experience and perception, are often under-prioritized. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects of climate change to assess its impacts on water resources and to evaluate differing adaptation options in poorly gauged basins. A case study of the Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal is presented to demonstrate the applicability of this framework. Results of the study show that people of the mountainous Mustang district in the KGRB have perceived climate change or climate variability, its impacts on water resources, as well as other water-related issues and potential adaptations or responses. Furthermore, evaluation of people’s perception using available physical data confirms the increase in temperature and average annual discharge in the Kali Gandaki River as well as poor water use, as a major problem at all levels in the basin. Despite increasing water availability, a concurrent increase in water use is difficult due to topographic constraints on irrigation development. However, the impacts of climate change are particularly severe in Mustang, owing to the fact that a large proportion of the population depends on a climate-sensitive livelihood like agriculture. Therefore, various adaptation options are identified in the agricultural sector, and one relevant option is further evaluated. The framework developed in this study has the potential to be further applied to other poorly gauged basins.     

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England

Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements.Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered.     

Are cultural heritage and resources threatened by climate change? A systematic literature review

Climate change poses serious threats to the protection and preservation of cultural heritage and resources. Despite a high level of scholarly interest in climate change impacts on natural and socio-economic systems, a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage and resources across various continents and disciplines is noticeably absent from the literature. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review methodology to identify and characterize the state of knowledge and how the cultural heritage and resources at risk from climate change are being explored globally. Results from 124 reviewed publications show that scholarly interest in the topic is increasing, employs a wide range of research methods, and represents diverse natural and social science disciplines. Despite such increasing and diverse interest in climate change and cultural heritage and resources, the geographic scope of research is limited (predominantly European focused). Additionally, we identified the need for future studies that not only focuses on efficient, sustainable adaptation planning options but also documents if, and how, the implementation of cultural heritage and resources adaptation or preservation is taking place. This systematic literature review can help direct scholarly research in climate change and cultural heritage and resource area. Ultimately, we hope these new directions can influence policy-making for preservation and adaptation of cultural heritage and cultural resources globally.     

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agriculturalcrops under climate change in the Southeastern USA

Summary  It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO₂, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO₂ were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium , the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO₂ were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. Received July 20, 1999/Revised April 18, 2000     

A Regional, Multi-sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-economic Change In The Uk

Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.     

Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation

Researchers who do not take into account farm heterogeneity in implementing specific climate change adaptation options might significantly bias their findings. To prove this point, this paper focusses on irrigation as an adaptation option to climate change and highlights the fact that there is no such thing as “irrigation.” Instead, different farms consider water management options across a spectrum that ranges from purely rainfed farms to purely irrigated farms with in between the extreme practices such as supplemental irrigation, water conservation practices, and different irrigation techniques. Accounting for such differences is necessary, yet difficult due to a lack of farm-specific data on water management and irrigation. This paper uses unique Farm Accountancy Data Network data of Western European farmers on the proportion of farmland that each farm irrigates. Unlike previous work, this allows taking into account some within-irrigation heterogeneity instead of simply categorizing farms as being “irrigated.” We estimate and compare climate response models based on the Ricardian cross-sectional method for a large range of irrigation categories. The results give insights into how the farm irrigation climate response can be significantly different depending on how irrigation is defined. This proves that ignoring within-adaptation differences when comparing non-adaptation with adaptation (in this case, rainfed versus irrigated agriculture) might lead to biased conclusions with regard to effectiveness of adaptation strategies. We therefore argue that it might be more relevant to understand at which point and under which circumstances irrigated agriculture is more or less beneficial than rainfed agriculture.     

气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择。梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序。通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段。该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展。     

Learning with Local Help: Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada

The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies

This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.     

Interdependencies of urban climate change impacts and adaptation strategies: a case study of Metropolitan Boston USA

An analysis of the interdependencies of the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies upon infrastructure systems in the Metro Boston urban area in the northeastern USA found that taking anticipatory actions well before 2050 results in less total adaptation and impact costs to the region than taking no actions. Because of the interrelations among infrastructure systems, it is critical to take account of the impacts that adaptation actions have on each other and other systems. For the most part these cross-system effects are complementary in nature. But there are important exceptions, so an integrated approach to adaptation policy formulation is needed. Furthermore, adaptation efforts must be designed so as not to confound mitigation efforts.     

Integrating biophysical and socio-economic evaluations to improve the efficacy of adaptation assessments for agriculture

This paper demonstrates how biophysical and socio-economic assessments of adaptation options can be integrated to test the effectiveness of options and anticipate social risks and potential barriers to adoption. We present the approach by combining a model analysis with a multiple-criteria evaluation of 12 adaptation options by graziers from the Australian rangelands. Our results show that strategies to manage stocking rates and pasture spelling are likely to be effective in improving climate resilience in the rangelands and are easy-to-implement, short-term solutions. Improving land condition is found to have the greatest potential long-term benefits, but was not considered by the graziers to be feasible or effective due to perceived difficulties of implementation. Areas of concordance identified in the assessments may be used to engage with stakeholders and build a foundation for incorporating climate change considerations into management and policy. The approach also highlights discordant views within the assessments that may result from differing management objectives, adaptive capacity and climate-risk perception. These factors are potential impediments to adaptation. The integrated assessment approach enables adaptation strategies and policy recommendations to be developed that have greater relevance to individual stakeholders, and supports capacity building to facilitate the most effective adaptation actions.     

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual “no policy” scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of “shared socio-economic (reference) pathways”. Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by “shared climate policy assumptions” capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers.     

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation

Ecosystem changes in floodplains could be a major issue during the twenty-first century as designated habitat areas are affected by climate change and floodplain management options. As part of the RegIS project, a Regional Impact Simulator has been developed to investigate these potential changes. This paper presents the methodologies and results of biodiversity metamodels used within the Regional Impact Simulator for two regions of the UK: East Anglia and North West England. Potential impacts and adaptations to future climate and socio-economic scenarios are analysed for three habitat types in floodplains (saltmarsh, coastal grazing marsh and fluvial grazing marsh) and selected species. An important finding is that management choices, which can be linked to socio-economic futures have a greater potential impact on habitat viability than climate change. The choices society makes will therefore be key to protection and conservation of biodiversity. The analyses also show that coastal grazing marsh is the most vulnerable habitat to sea-level rise, although there is a scope for substituting losses with fluvial grazing marsh. These results indicate that these methods provide a useful approach for assessing potential biodiversity changes at the regional scale, including the effect of different policies.     

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.