Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Basin, China

The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of water and sediment discharge of the Zhujiang (Pearl River), China. The gradual trend test (Mann–Kendall test), and abrupt change test (Pettitt test), have been employed on annual water discharge and sediment load series (from the 1950s–2004) at nine stations in the main channels and main tributaries of the Zhujiang. Both the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge at all stations in the Zhujiang Basin showed no significant trend or abrupt shift. Annual water discharges are mainly influenced by precipitation variability, while the construction of reservoirs/dams in the Zhujiang Basin had little influence on water discharge. Sediment load, however, showed significant decreasing trends at some stations in the main channel of the Xijiang and Dongjiang. More stations have seen significantly decreasing trends since the 1990s. The decreasing sediment load in the Zhujiang reflects the impacts of reservoir construction in the basin. In contrast, the Liujiang, the second largest tributary of the Xijiang, has experienced a significant upward shift of sediment load around 1991 likely caused by exacerbated rock desertification in the karst regions. The annual sediment load from the Zhujiang (excluding the delta region) to the estuary has declined from 80.4 × 10⁶ t averaged for the period 1957–1995 to 54.0 × 10⁶ t for the period 1996–2004. More specifically, the sediment load declined steadily since the early 1990s so that in 2004 it was about one-third of the mean level of pre-90s. Water discharge and sediment load of the Zhujiang would be more affected by human activities in the future with the further reservoir developments, especially the completion of the Datengxia hydroelectric project, and an intensification of the afforestation policy in the drainage basin.     

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.     

The policy relevance of global environmental change research

Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX—the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives.     

Impact microcraters on an Australasian microtektite

Abstract— Microcraters attributable to impact have been discovered on an Australasian microtektite from a core in the Central Indian Basin. The craters resemble lunar microcraters and those generated during impact experiments. The largest crater here, which has a welded promontory, is unique. The projectiles that produced the impacts defined varying trajectories and velocities, ranging from hypervelocity to low velocity (a few 10 m/s). The impacts took place while the microtektite was in flight at an elevated target temperature. This is the first observation of the microimpact phenomenon on a microtektite.     

A Large Basin on the Near Side of the Moon

The differences between the surface structure of the near side and the far side of the Moon have been topics of interest ever since photographs of the far side have been available. One recurrent hypothesis is that a large impact on the near side has deposited ejecta on the far side, resulting in thicker crust there. Specific proposals were made by P.H. Cadogan for the Gargantuan Basin and by E.A. Whitaker for the Procellarum Basin. Despite considerable effort, no consensus has been reached on the existence of these basins. The problem of searching for such a basin is one of finding its signature in a somewhat chaotic field of basin and crater impacts. The search requires a model of the topographic shape of an impact basin and its ejecta field. Such a model is described, based on elevation data of lunar basins collected by the Lidar instrument of the Clementine mission and crustal thickness data derived from tracking Clementine and other spacecraft. The parameters of the model are scaled according to the principles of dimensional analysis and isostatic compensation in the early Moon. The orbital dynamics of the ejecta and the curvature of the Moon are also taken into account. Using such a scaled model, a search for the best fit for a large basin led to identification of a basin whose cavity covers more than half the Moon, including the area of all of the impact basins visible on the near side. The center of this basin is at 22 degrees east longitude and 8.5 degrees north latitude and its average radius is approximately 3,160 km. It is a megabasin, a basin that contains other basins (the far side South Pole-Aitken Basin also qualifies for that designation). It has been called the Near Side Megabasin. Much of the material ejected from the basin escaped the Moon, but the remainder formed an ejecta blanket that covered all of the far side beyond the basin rim to a depth of from 6 to 30 km. Isostatic compensation reduced the depth relative to the mean surface to a range of 1–5 km, but the crustal thickness data reveals the full extent of the original ejecta. The elevation profile of the ejecta deposited on the far side, together with modification for subsequent impacts by known basins (especially the far side South Pole-Aitken Basin) matches the available topographic data to a high degree. The standard deviation of the residual elevations (after subtracting the model from the measured elevations) is about one-half of the standard deviation of the measured elevations. A section on implications discusses the relations of this giant basin to known variations in the composition, mineralogy, and elevations of different lunar terranes.     

Numerical modeling of impact heating and cooling of the Vredefort impact structure

Abstract— Large meteorite impacts, such as the one that created the Vredefort structure in South Africa?2 Ga ago, result in significant heating of the target. The temperatures achieved in these events have important implications for post‐impact metamorphism as well as for the development of hydrothermal systems. To investigate the post‐impact thermal evolution and the size of the Vredefort structure, we have analyzed impact‐induced shock heating in numerical simulations of terrestrial impacts by projectiles of a range of sizes thought to be appropriate for creating the Vredefort structure. When compared with the extent of estimated thermal shock metamorphism observed at different locations around Vredefort, our model results support our earlier estimates that the original crater was 120–160 km in diameter, based on comparison of predicted to observed locations of shock features. The simulations demonstrate that only limited shock heating of the target occurs outside the final crater and that the cooling time was at least 0.3 Myr but no more than 30 Myr.     

Time-resolved studies of hypervelocity vertical impacts into porous particulate targets: Effects of projectile density on early-time coupling and crater growth

The depth and duration of energy and momentum coupling in an impact shapes the formation of the crater. The earliest stages of crater growth (when the projectile transfers its energy and momentum to the target) are unrecoverable when the event is described by late stage parameters, which collapse the initial conditions of the impact into a singular point in time and space. During the coupling phase, the details of the impact are mapped into the ejecta flow field. In this experimental study, we present new experimental and computational measurements of the ejecta distribution and crater growth extending from early times into main-stage ballistic flow for hypervelocity impacts over a range of projectile densities. Specifically, we assess the effect of projectile density on coupling depth and location in porous particulate (sand) targets. A non-invasive high-speed imaging technique is employed to capture the velocity of individual ejecta particles very early in the cratering event as a function of both time and launch position. These data reveal that the effects of early-stage coupling, such as non-constant ejection angles, manifest not only in early-time behavior but also extend to main-stage crater growth. Time-resolved comparisons with hydrocode calculations provide both benchmarking and insight into the parameters controlling the ejection process. Measurements of the launch position and metrics for the transient diameter to depth ratio as a function of time demonstrate non-proportional crater growth throughout much of excavation. Low-density projectiles couple closer to the surface, thereby leading to lower ejection angles and larger effective diameter to depth ratios. These results have implications for the ballistic emplacement of ejecta on planetary surfaces, and are essential to interpreting temporally resolved data from impact missions.     

Modeling global impact effects on middle-sized icy bodies: applications to Saturn's moons

Disrupted terrains that form as a consequence of giant impacts may help constrain the internal structures of planets, asteroids, comets and satellites. As shock waves and powerful seismic stress waves propagate through a body, they interact with the internal structure in ways that may leave a characteristic impression upon the surface. Variations in peak surface velocity and tensile stress, related to landform degradation and surface rupture, may be controlled by variations in core size, shape and density. Caloris Basin on Mercury and Imbrium Basin on the Moon have disturbed terrain at their antipodes, where focusing is most intense for an approximately symmetric spheroid. Although, the icy saturnian satellites Tethys, Mimas, and Rhea possess giant impact structures, it is not clear whether these structures have correlated disrupted terrains, antipodal or elsewhere. In anticipation of high-resolution imagery from Cassini, we investigate antipodal focusing during giant impacts using a 3D SPH impact model. We first investigate giant impacts into a fiducial 1000 km diameter icy satellite with a variety of core radii and compositions. We find that antipodal disruption depends more on core radius than on core density, suggesting that core geometry may express a surface signature in global impacts on partially differentiated targets. We model Tethys, Mimas, and Rhea according to their image-derived shapes (triaxial for Tethys and Mimas and spherical for Rhea), varying core radii and densities to give the proper bulk densities. Tethys shows greater antipodal values of peak surface velocity and peak surface tensile stress, indicating more surface damage, than either Mimas or Rhea. Results for antipodal and global fragmentation and terrain rupture are inconclusive, with the hydrocode itself producing global disruption at the limits of model resolution but with peak fracture stresses never exceeding the strength of laboratory ice.     

Improving the methodology for assessing natural hazard impacts

The impacts of natural hazards such as cyclones have been conventionally measured through changes in human, social and economic capital, typically represented by stock variables such as population, built property and public infrastructure, livestock, agricultural land, etc. This paper develops an alternative approach that seeks to detect and quantify impacts as changes in flow variables. In particular, we explore whether changes in annual agricultural output, when measured at an appropriate spatial level, could be used to measure impacts associated with tropical cyclones in coastal regions of India. We believe that such an approach may have a number of benefits from a policy perspective, particularly with regard to the debate between relief versus recovery as disaster management strategies. A focus on flow variables is also likely to be more relevant and useful in developing countries; the maintenance of economic activity directly affects livelihood and is perhaps of greater importance than loss of built property or other physical capital.     

大规模灭绝和小天体撞击的相关性——关于湿婆假说的评述之一

本文试图用观测证据来说明小天体撞击和大规模绝灭的相关性。我们首先简要回顾有关大规模绝灭周期的研究进展,这个经过各种古生物数据和统计分析方法检验的周期性使得我们认为它可以作为大规格绝灭地外原因的一个间接观测证据。接着我们用来自绝灭界线的冲击矿物学证据和大撞击坑与地层阶界线的年龄相关性来说明大规模绝灭总是伴随着小天体撞击发生的。最后我们用绝灭界线上的地质证据来描述小天体撞击在全球范围内造成的生态灾难。这些毁灭性的生态灾难使我们从小天体撞击灾害与大规模绝灭的相关性中看到它们的因果关系。     

The Lawn Hill annulus: An Ordovician meteorite impact into water‐saturated dolomite

The Lawn Hill Impact Structure (LHIS) is located 250 km N of Mt Isa in NW Queensland, Australia, and is marked by a highly deformed dolomite annulus with an outer diameter of ~18 km, overlying low metamorphic grade siltstone, sandstone, and shale, along the NE margin of the Georgina Basin. This study provides detailed field observations from sections of the Lawn Hill annulus and adjacent areas that demonstrate a clear link between the deformation of the dolomite and the Lawn Hill impact. ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar dating of impact‐related melt particles provides a time of impact in the Ordovician (472 ± 8 Ma) when the Georgina Basin was an active depocenter. The timing and stratigraphic thickness of the dolomite sequence in the annulus suggest that there was possibly up to 300 m of additional sedimentary rocks on top of the currently exposed Thorntonia Limestone at the time of impact. The exposed annulus is remarkably well preserved, with preservation attributed to postimpact sedimentation. The LHIS has an atypical crater morphology with no central uplift. The heterogeneous target materials at Lawn Hill were probably low‐strength, porous, and water‐saturated, with all three properties affecting the crater morphology. The water‐saturated nature of the carbonate unit at the time of impact is thought to have influenced the highly brecciated nature of the annulus, and restricted melt production. The impact timing raises the possibility that the Lawn Hill structure may be a member of a group of impacts resulting from an asteroid breakup that occurred in the mid‐Ordovician (470 ± 6 Ma).     

Atmospheric erosion induced by oblique impacts

Abstract— Previous investigations of impact‐induced atmospheric erosion considered vertical impacts only. Numerical simulations of oblique impacts presented in this paper show that the loss of air strongly depends on trajectory inclination and it increases as the impact angle decreases. The results of numerical simulations over the wide range of impact parameters (projectile sizes from 1 to 30 km, impact velocities from 15 to 70 km/s, escape velocities from 5 to 11.2 km/s, projectile densities from 1 to 3.3 g/cm³, normal atmospheric densities varying by three orders of magnitude) can be approximated by simple analytical formulae.     

Amino acid survival in large cometary impacts

Abstract— A significant fraction of the Earth's prebiotic volatile inventory may have been delivered by asteroidal and cometary impacts during the period of heavy bombardment. The realization that comets are particularly rich in organic material seemed to strengthen this suggestion. Previous modeling studies, however, indicated that most organics would be entirely destroyed in large comet and asteroid impacts. The availability of new kinetic parameters for the thermal degradation of amino acids in the solid phase made it possible to readdress this question. We present the results of new high-resolution hydrocode simulations of asteroid and comet impact coupled with recent experimental data for amino acid pyrolysis in the solid phase. Differences due to impact velocity as well as projectile material have been investigated. Effects of angle of impacts were also addressed. The results suggest that some amino acids would survive the shock heating of large (kilometer-radius) cometary impacts. At the time of the origins of life on Earth, the steady-state oceanic concentration of certain amino acids (like aspartic and glutamic acid) delivered by comets could have equaled or substantially exceeded concentrations due to Miller-Urey synthesis in a CO₂-rich atmosphere. Furthermore, in the unlikely case of a grazing impact (impact angle ～5° from the horizontal), an amount of some amino acids comparable to that due to the background steady-state production or delivery would be delivered to the early Earth.     

Lunar-forming collisions with pre-impact rotation

Prior models of lunar-forming impacts assume that both the impactor and the target protoearth were not rotating prior to the Moon-forming event. However, planet formation models suggest that such objects would have been rotating rapidly during the late stages of terrestrial accretion. In this paper I explore the effects of pre-impact rotation on impact outcomes through more than 100 hydrodynamical simulations that consider a range of impactor masses, impact angles and impact speeds. Pre-impact rotation, particularly in the target protoearth, can substantially alter collisional outcomes and leads to a more diverse set of final planet-disk systems than seen previously. However, the subset of these impacts that are also lunar-forming candidates—i.e. that produce a sufficiently massive and iron-depleted protolunar disk—have properties similar to those determined for collisions of non-rotating objects [Canup, R.M., Asphaug, E., 2001. Nature 412, 708-712; Canup, R.M., 2004a. Icarus 168, 433-456]. With or without pre-impact rotation, a lunar-forming impact requires an impact angle near 45 degrees, together with a low impact velocity that is not more than 10% larger than the Earth's escape velocity, and produces a disk containing up to about two lunar masses that is composed predominantly of material originating from the impactor. The most significant differences in the successful cases involving pre-impact spin occur for impacts into a retrograde rotating protoearth, which allow for larger impactors (containing up to 20% of Earth's mass) and provide an improved match with the current Earth-Moon system angular momentum compared to prior results. The most difficult state to reconcile with the Moon is that of a rapidly spinning, low-obliquity protoearth before the giant impact, as these cases produce disks that are not massive enough to yield the Moon.     

Numerical modeling of oblique hypervelocity impacts on strong ductile targets

Abstract– The majority of meteorite impacts occur at oblique incidence angles. However, many of the effects of obliquity on impact crater size and morphology are poorly understood. Laboratory experiments and numerical models have shown that crater size decreases with impact angle, the along‐range crater profile becomes asymmetric at low incidence angles, and below a certain threshold angle the crater planform becomes elliptical. Experimental results at approximately constant impact velocity suggest that the elliptical threshold angle depends on target material properties. Herein, we test the hypothesis that the threshold for oblique crater asymmetry depends on target material strength. Three‐dimensional numerical modeling offers a unique opportunity to study the individual effects of both impact angle and target strength; however, a systematic study of these two parameters has not previously been performed. In this work, the three‐dimensional shock physics code iSALE‐3D is validated against laboratory experiments of impacts into a strong, ductile target material. Digital elevation models of craters formed in laboratory experiments were created from stereo pairs of scanning electron microscope images, allowing the size and morphology to be directly compared with the iSALE‐3D craters. The simulated craters show excellent agreement with both the crater size and morphology of the laboratory experiments. iSALE‐3D is also used to investigate the effect of target strength on oblique incidence impact cratering. We find that the elliptical threshold angle decreases with decreasing target strength, and hence with increasing cratering efficiency. Our simulations of impacts on ductile targets also support the prediction from Chapman and McKinnon (1986) that cratering efficiency depends on only the vertical component of the velocity vector.     

Impact experiments: 1. Ejecta velocity distributions and related results from regolith targets

Velocity distributions are determined for ejecta from 14 experimental impacts into regolithlike powders in near-vacuum conditions at velocities from 5 to 2321 m/sec. Of the two powders, the finer produces slower ejecta. Ejecta include conical sheets with ray-producing jets and (in the fastest impacts at $\text{V}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>imp</mtext>}}\text{? 700}\text{m/sec}\text{)}$ high-speed vertical plumes of uncertain nature. Velocities in the conical sheets and jets increase with impact velocity (Sect. 6). Ejecta velocities also increase as impact energy and crater size increase; a suggested method of estimating ejecta velocity distributions in large-scale impacts involves homologous scaling according to R/R_crater, where R is radial distances from the crater (Sect. 7). The data are consistent with Holsapple-Schmidt scaling relationships (Sect. 8). The fraction of initial total impact energy partitioned into ejecta kinetic energy increases from around 0.1% for the slow impacts to around 10% for the fast impacts, with the main increase probably at the onset of the hypervelocity impact regime (Sect. 9). Crater shapes are discussed, including an example of a possible “frozen” transient cavity (Sect. 10). Ejecta blanket thickness distributions (as a function of R) vary with target material and impact speed, but the results measured for hypervelocity impacts agree with published experimental and theoretical values (Sect. 11). The low ejecta velocities for powder targets relative to rock targets, together with the paucity of powder ejecta in low-speed impacts ( < 1 projectile mass for V_imp ≈ 10 m/sec) enhance early planetary accretion effeciency beyond that in some earlier theoretical models; 100% efficient accretion is found for certain primordial conditions (Sect. 12).     

Features of a comet nucleus: The case of 103P/Hartley 2

In the paper two chosen features of the comet 103P/Hartley 2 are studied. The first one are ‘cometary geysers’ which have been recorded by the camera on Deep Impact spacecraft. The numerical calculations related with this phenomenon have been carried out for large number of values of probable cometary characteristics. Our calculations confirm the assumption what also has been observed by NASA's scientists that the jets of carbon dioxide from the geysers are able to lift large chunks of water ice from the comet. The second discussed feature of the comet 103P/Hartley 2 is the lack of impact holes on the surface of its nucleus. The expected rate of impact holes on the surface of the nucleus of 103P/Hartley 2 is discussed. These holes could be the product of impacts between this comet and other small bodies orbiting in the main asteroid belt. The probability of such impacts, the total number of expected perceptible holes and changes in the luminosity of the comet caused by collisions are examined. We conclude that indeed the number of visible holes on its surface should be negligible (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Giga-Pixels and Sky Surveys

We describe a project to build a new type of astronomical CCD that should significantly decrease the cost per pixel of detectors. This device should also provide very fast readout, autoguiding capability, image motion compensation, and good red sensitivity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact cratering as a cause of climate change,surface alteration,and resurfacing during the early history of Mars

Ancient valley networks (VNs) and related open- and closed-basin lakes are testimony to the presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars in the Late Noachian and Early Hesperian. Uncertain, however, has been the mechanism responsible for causing the necessary rainfall and runoff and/or snowfall and subsequent melting. Impact cratering has been proposed (e.g., Segura et al. 2002) as a process for temporarily raising temperatures and inducing conditions that would produce rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, and formation of the VNs and associated lacustrine features. We refer to the collective effects of this process as the ICASE model (impact cratering atmospheric/surface effects). In this contribution, we assess the proposed impact cratering mechanism in order to understand its climatic implications for early Mars: we outline the step-by-step events in the cratering process and explore the predictions for atmospheric and surface geological consequences. For large and basin-scale impacts, rainfall should be globally and homogeneously distributed and characterized by very high temperatures. Rainfall rates are predicted to be high, ~2 m yr⁻¹, similar to rates in tropical rainforests on Earth, and runoff rates are correspondingly very high. These predicted characteristics do not seem to be consistent with the observed VNs, which are mainly equatorial and not homogeneous in their distribution. Prior to the Late Noachian, however, we predict that basin-scale impact effects are very likely to contribute significantly to degradation of crater rims and regional smoothing of terrain, implying vast resurfacing and resetting of crater ages following large crater and basin-scale impacts. Furthermore, the high temperatures of impact-induced rainwater and snowmelt and the pervasive penetration of heat into the regolith substrate are predicted to have a significant influence on the mineralogical alteration of the crust and its resulting physical properties. We conclude by describing a case example (Isidis basin) and describe how the ICASE model provides an alternative scenario for the interpretation of the layered phyllosilicates in the Nili Fossae and NE Sytris regions. We outline specific conclusions and recommendations designed to improve the ICASE model and to promote further understanding of its implications for the geological, mineralogical, and climate history of early Mars.