全球变暖与变冷利弊分析

在联合国下属的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的4次评估报告影响下,全球变暖达到前所未有家喻户晓的程度．各国人民似乎对“气候变暖”有谈虎色变的感觉．只要是灾难,不论水灾还是旱灾,不管是降温的雪灾还是高温的热浪,各国媒体均将这些灾害与“气候变暖”紧密联系起来,IPCC第四次报告也是如此．气候真的变暖了吗？真的那么严重变暖了吗？气候变暖真的给人类带来的只是可怕灾难而没有益处吗？水灾与旱灾是一对矛盾的2个方面,如何都能够由“全球变暖”一个因素所导致？地质记录表明,气候冷暖波动是地球气候变化一般形式,过去在人类能够影响大气二氧化碳含量以前,地球气候就是一直在不断地冷暖变化着的．驱动地球冷暖变化的主要因素是地球接收太阳辐射量的变化．不变的气候是短期的,是暂时的,而变化的气候却是长期和永恒的．持续了约550年变冷小冰期于1850年结束,随后进入暖期则是正常的自然过程．人类活动最大可能只是叠加了变暖的影响．本研究综合对比分析全球变暖和全球变冷2种气候变化所产生的一系列后果,认为全球变暖给人类带来结果是利大于弊．     

全球气候变化大趋势与次级波动

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告近百年升温约0.74℃,并将气候变化归因于人为排放的温室气体,然而该报告中的多处结论引起了国际社会对IPCC报告的广泛质疑.人为排放的温室气体对全球升温贡献有多大？人为过程与自然过程对全球变暖分别贡献多少？IPCC评估报告中过去百年0.74℃的变化是否为变冷总趋势中的次级波动？针对这些问题,本研究梳理了近年来全球气候变化的相关研究成果.结果显示,第四纪以来的地球气候波动主要受控于太阳辐射变化周期,各个时间尺度上的气候变化既表现出明显的周期性,也同时存在次一级的波动.在全新世晚期气候变冷的背景下,气候变化千年—百年尺度上同样存在一系列周期性和次级波动,且波动范围在0.5～6℃之间变化.IPCC报告中百年气候变暖的合理解释是全球变冷趋势下的次级波动.     

论我国西北干旱气候的成因

我国西北地区干旱气候历史悠久,其发展过程可分为三个阶段。不同阶段干旱气候的成因和特征是不同的;白垩纪—早第三纪本区因位于当时行星风系的副热带高压带而为干热气候;晚第三纪全球气候开始变冷,海陆热力差异加大,仅在沿海地区出现古季风环流,西北地区虽受西风气流影响,但因距大西洋较远,气候干暖;第四纪全球气温进一步下降,亚洲大陆平均高度,尤其是青藏高原强烈上升,高原对大气层的热力和动力作用,激发了现代亚洲季风环流,而西北地区因西边山地的上升而位于西风气流的雨影区,气候干温(现代和间冰期)或干冷(冰期)。     

文汇思源大讲堂带你了解“盖娅假说”

全球是在变暖还是在变冷？科学家们一直争论不休。但是在全球环境研究领域却有一个趋于统一的看法,那就是全球气候的变化是大地女神盖娅向人类发出的全球警示——这就是“盖娅假说／理论”。“文汇·思源大讲堂”将于本周六上午在文新大厦二楼新闻发布厅举行。严燕来教授将讲述“盖娅假说”,解析全球气候变化。     

鄂尔多斯高原周缘黄河阶地的形成与青藏高原隆升

构造运动和和气候变化是河流阶地形成的两个重要因素。学术界对于构造运动与气候变化中哪个因素是河流阶地形成的控制因素尚未形成一致观点。本文选择位于鄂尔多斯高原周缘的河流阶地,综述了前人在兰州段、中卫段和晋陕峡谷段3个河段的黄河阶地上的研究成果,结合2万年以来的古洪水记录与古地震活动等证据,对比了河流阶地形成、气候变化以及青藏高原的幕式隆升的时间。对比结果显示,鄂尔多斯高原周缘多级河流阶地的形成时间与青藏高原阶段性隆升的时间比较一致,而与气候冰期—间冰期变化之间没有明显规律,这一结果支持构造运动是鄂尔多斯高原周缘的河流阶地形成的控制因素。     

火山活动对全球气候变化的影响

火山活动是影响全球气候变化的重要因子之一.强烈的火山喷发会向大气圈排放大量的火山灰、水蒸气和SO2等气体,尤其是SO2能在平流层中形成气溶胶,并停留很长时间,减少太阳对地表的辐射量,影响局地或全球气候.地质历史记录表明,火山活动与气候冷期有密切的联系,现代观测和模拟资料也显示火山活动后的一年至几年内,火山周围地区甚至全球产生不同程度的降温.现有研究表明,在火山喷发的活跃时期,火山气体喷发物对地球气候系统的影响程度可能超过CO2等气体产生的温室效应.     

极地和青藏高原地区的气候变化及其影响

南极、北极和青藏高原素有地球三极之称,是多个国际计划研究全球变化的关键地区.南北极和青藏高原是全球气候变化的敏感地区,要了解全球气候变化,必须对南北极和青藏高原地区有所研究.在当前全球变暖的大背景下,地球三极地区的气候变化在时间和空间上都是多样的,这些变化对全球大气环流和我国的天气气候也会发生影响.加强对南极、北极和青...     

大气CO2浓度变化与全球气候变化关系初步探讨

2007年IPCC公布的第四次评估报告AR4指出：过去50a观测到的地球平均温度升高很可能（90％以上）是由人类活动引起的,其中主要是人类活动引起的温室气体排放的增加．而地质气候记录证明,早在人类排放能够影响大气以前的CO2浓度变化均不同程度地滞后于气温变化．地质时期CO2浓度的波动是跟随气候变化而变化,是被大气温度驱动的结果,而非相反的CO,驱动温度变化．将现在全球变暖完全归因于人类排放CO2的增加,无法解释1940-1978年的降温事件．通过更长尺度的对比研究可以发现,现在气候是处于全新世变干变冷的大趋势之中,即使现在全球略有变暖,也只是处于变干变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动．将近代全球气候变暖片面夸大归因于人类活动排放温室气体,而忽略了自然因素的贡献,其依据显得缺乏科学说服力,其做法不免有些令人担忧．     

辨析“气候变暖”

近年来人们对＂气候变暖＂及其机制的争论达到了前所未有的程度,这可能是因为气候变化不再是单纯研究大气变化规律的科学,而变成一门与＂减排方案＂和＂征收碳税＂有关的政治与经济问题相联系,与国家经济利益有关的崭新课题.＂气候变暖＂既与利益有关,就会难免偏离公正,偏离纯理论科学.本研究对国内外＂气候变暖＂最新动态进行回顾分析,得出以下认识和结论.1）过去百年城市发展,极大地影响了器测温度数据,如果没有对＂热岛效应＂进行矫正,无疑高估了过去百年全球升温的幅度;2）过去百年全球有所变暖是事实,但不同学者增温估算不一致.不仅升温幅度不确定,而且人类和自然因素对升温贡献各占多少也不确定;如果考虑到城市发展对增温估算的影响,过去百年增温应当比0.4℃更低,远没有达到历史上次级波动的变化范围.3）尽管过去百年地球有所变暖,但在万年轨道尺度上,现在地球处于变冷的大趋势过程中.对现在气候变暖更合理解释,是属于变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动;4）不论过去还是现在,大气CO2浓度变化总是落后于温度变化,即总是温度驱动着CO2变化,而不是CO2浓度驱动地球增温.     

青藏高原的主要环境效应

作为地球的"第三极",青藏高原越来越受到世界的关注,本文就青藏高原的环境效应问题进行了研究和探讨.青藏高原的隆起和抬升,形成了其自身独特的自然环境特征,促成了独特的高原季风系统,造就了中国现代季风格局,影响着全球气候的变化和亚洲植被格局的分布,导技致了亚洲干旱地带的北移和植被地带的不对称分布,形成了世界上著名的高原地带性植被格局.对中国东部、西北干旱区、亚洲的气候和植被格局乃至全球气候变化都具有深刻的影响.     

Analysis about the influence on the thermal regime in permafrost regions with different underlying surfaces

In the last several decades, the underlying surface conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have changed dramatically, causing permafrost degradation due to climate change and human activities. This change severely influenced the cold regions environment and engineering infrastructure built above permafrost. Permafrost is a product of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ground. The formation and change of permafrost are determined by the energy exchange between earth and atmosphere system. Fieldwork was performed in order to learn how land surface change influenced the thermal regime in permafrost regions. In this article, the field data observed in the Fenghuo Mountain regions was used to analyze the thermal conditions under different underlying surfaces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that underlying surface change may alter the primary energy balance and the thermal conditions of permafrost. The thermal flux in the permafrost regions is also changed, resulting in rising upper soil temperature and thickening active layer. Vegetation could prevent solar radiation from entering the ground, cooling the ground in the warm season. Also, vegetation has heat insulation and heat preservation functions related to the ground surface and may keep the permafrost stable. Plots covered with black plastic film have higher temperatures compared with plots covered by natural vegetation. The reason is that black plastic film has a low albedo, which could increase the absorbed solar radiation, and also decrease evapotranspiration. The ＂greenhouse effect＂ of transparent plastic film might effectively reduce the emission of long-wave radiation from the surface, decreasing heat loss from the earth＇s surface, and prominently increasing ground surface temperature.     

1993—2017年气候变化对西藏谷物单产的定量影响

气候变化对农业的影响是全球关注的热点问题之一,青藏高原对气候变化尤其敏感,但气候变化对青藏高原农业产量的定量影响缺乏系统研究。为定量评估气候变化对西藏谷物单产的影响,本文使用气象数据与年鉴统计数据,选取了固定效应模型、差分模型和线性去趋势模型3类统计模型,分析了1993—2017年间气候变化（最低气温、降水量、生长度日和太阳辐射）对西藏县（区）级、市级和自治区3个尺度的谷物单产的影响。结果表明：西藏整体对于温度（最低气温和生长度日）的敏感性大于降水量和太阳辐射。各项气候因子对西藏谷物单产的整体影响为正影响,但不同区域对气候因子的敏感程度和显著性不同。除了生长度日对于拉萨为负影响以外,最低气温、降水量和太阳辐射对于所有市均为正影响。气候趋势对于西藏整体谷物单产的影响为正影响,不同模型计算结果集中在1.5%~4.8%区间内。3类模型中固定效应模型稳定性最好,线性去趋势模型好于差分模型,差分模型在引入气候因子间的交互项后模型稳定性降低。本文有助于西藏实施更加有空间针对性的农业适应气候变化措施,以应对气候造成的青藏高原农业生态系统变化。     

青藏高原东北缘马衔山夷平面特征指标的提取与分析

夷平面研究在地貌演化和新构造运动,特别是青藏高原隆升过程研究中占有极其重要的地位,准确界定夷平面分布范围是开展夷平面定量--半定量研究的重要基础.截至目前,前人已利用计算机图像处理技术和目视解译等方法开展了相关工作,并取得重要研究进展.然而,以往利用坡度高程指标提取夷平面时存在一定的随意性和主观性.青藏高原内部及其周边地区发育系列夷平面,其中高原东北缘马衔山地区较好的保存了两级夷平面.被夷平的地层为前寒武系马衔山群混合岩,山顶面上发育冰缘地貌,主夷平面波状起伏,上有岛山和晚新生代沉积,局部覆盖有40 m左右红粘土和30 m以上更新世黄土,并在局地残留3 m以上风化壳,是开展夷平面研究的理想地区.为探讨如何确定提取夷平面的最佳坡度高程指标,本文基于夷平面的特殊地貌几何形态,利用均值变点分析法和最小误差法确定了提取夷平面的最佳高程和坡度指标,并据此对马衔山地区的两级夷平面的分布范围进行提取和统计分析.最后结合剖面线,坡向分布图和区域地质资料探讨了夷平面的构造变形特征.研究发现马衔山地区两级夷平面最佳坡度指标均为12°,山顶面和主夷平面高程主要分布在3470~3640 m和2670~2870 m;统计分析表明山顶面面积约为6.4 km²,平均高程为3559 m,主夷平面面积约为15.5 km²,平均高程为2771 m;而夷平面的变形特征主要受控于区域断层.     

火山喷发对辐射传输影响的研究

本文根据火山灰粒子的辐射光学特性,计算了火山灰粒子和平流层本底的辐射光学参数。另外,采用大气多次散射的辐射传输方程,计算了火山喷发对大气辐射变温的影响效果。结果表明,与平流层本底相比,火山灰粒子具有很强的吸收性。火山喷发使平流层吸收太阳辐射增温,并使到达对流层和地面的太阳辐射减少;同时,对大气长波冷却率的影响甚微。     

中国国家公园与世界遗产地保护——挑战与战略

About 70% of its land area as mountains and plateaus,China is the largest mountain countryin the world.Thanks to its vast territory (9.6 million km2),outstanding relief and varied climates,China boasts extremely plenty of ecosystems and landscapes.From south to north,it traverses almostall the temporal zones from tropical rainforest in the southernmost to frigid-temperate needle-leavedforest in the northernmost; from east to west,it sees a gradual transition fro humid forest landscape toextremely arid desert landscape; vertical change of landscapes is most striking owing to the existenceof many high mountains (above 6000-7000 m,e.g.,the Himalayas,the Kunlun,the Tianshan,theHengduan,etc.) and plateaus,especially the immense Tibetan Plateau (averagely 4500 m above sealevel).All of this give rise to the richness and diversity of ecosystems and landscape in China.Some ofthe ecosystems are endemic to China,e.g.,alpine desert and alpine steppe in the Tibetan Plateau.As aresult,China bears a great responsibility in the protection of global ecosystems and landscape.     

1993-2017年气候变化对西藏谷物单产的定量影响

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change(including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature(minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in Lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%–4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Radiation balance and the response of albedo to environmental factors above two alpine ecosystems in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the energy balance on the Tibetan Plateau is important for better prediction of global climate change. To characterize the energy balance on the Plateau, we examined the radiation balance and the response of albedo to environmental factors above an alpine meadow and an alpine wetland surfaces in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, using 2014 data. Although our two sites belong to the same climatic background, and are close geographically, the annual incident solar radiation at the alpine meadow site(6,447 MJ/(m2·a)) was about 1.1 times that at the alpine wetland site(6,012 MJ/(m2·a)),due to differences in the cloudiness between our two sites. The alpine meadow and the alpine wetland emitted about 38%and 42%, respectively, of annual incident solar radiation back into atmosphere in the form of net longwave radiation; and they reflected about 22% and 18%, respectively, of the annual incident solar radiation back into atmosphere in the form of shortwave radiation. The annual net radiation was 2,648 and 2,544 MJ/(m2·a) for the alpine meadow site and the alpine wetland site, respectively, accounting for only about 40% of the annual incident solar radiation, significantly lower than the global mean. At 30-min scales, surface albedo exponentially decreases with the increase of the solar elevation angle; and it linearly decreases with the increase of soil-water content for our two sites. But those relationships are significantly influenced by cloudiness and are site-specific.     

Protecting the national parks and the world heritage sites in China: challenge and strategy

To protect the richness, diversity and uniqueness of China's ecosystems and landscapes, more than 150 national parks (named "National scenic and historic interest areas" in China), 85 national geoparks and 230 national nature reserves have been delimited nationwide. In addition, a total of 30 world heritage sites (4 mixed, 4 natural, 22 cultural), 24 biosphere reserves and 8 world geoparks have been ratified for China in a short time by the UNESCO. Unfortunately, most of these national and…     

青藏高原:地球动力学与环境演变研究进展

1 Introduction The TP is a spectacular field laboratory for analyzing fundamental processes of geodynamics and environmental change as well as their interrelationships (Kutzbach et al., 1993). Being the largest and highest continental plateau with a mean …