2013年气象条件对佳县枣树坐果率的影响

根据陕西佳县2013年1—7月光、热、水气象资料,结合枣林区红枣坐果率的实际情况对气象条件对枣树坐果率的影响进行了分析,得出低温冻害、连阴雨、多雨、寡照等是导致2013年佳县红枣挂果数量严重下降的主要因素,以期为枣树丰产提供参考。     

2004年春季气候对库尔勒香梨坐果的影响

通过对2004年春季库尔勒香梨种植区的实地调查,并与当地气温、风速、湿度和降水等气候资料进行对比分析,找出影响香梨坐果率的气象因素,提出提高坐果率的技术措施。     

Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?简

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.     

Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.     

Changes in Climate Regionalization Indices in China during 1961–2010简

The regionalization of climate in China is based on a three-level classification in terms of lasting days for accumulated temperature （AT）,aridity index,and July mean temperature.Based on daily meteorological observational data from 756 stations,trends and interdecadal variation in indices for classifying temperature zones,moisture regions and climatic subregions in the period 1961-2010 are discussed.Results reveal that the nationwide AT ≥ 10℃C （AT10） and its lasting days are basically increasing,while aridity in northern Xinjiang is decreasing.The increasing trend of July mean temperature in North China is found to be notably larger than in South China.In terms of their national averages,a marked step increase of AT10 and its lasting period,as well as July mean temperature occurred around 1997,while the aridity index presents no such clear change.By comparing regionalization areas for 1998-2010 with those for 1961-97,it is found that the semi-humid,semi-dry and dry regions in the sub-temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the middle subtropical zone,have experienced substantial shrinkage in terms of area.In contrast,the areas of semi-dry and dry regions in the warm temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the south subtropical zone,present drastically increasing trends.Owing to the influence of such step changes that took place in 1997,that particular point in time should be given close attention in future studies regarding the regionalization of climate in China.     

An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2简

The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2） in simulat ing global monsoon precipitation （GMP） was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-sl, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon （NWPM） and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s 1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negatiw,＇ pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Nina years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Nifia years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere （lower-troposphere） divergence （convergence） over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical as cent （descent） over the Southwest Indian Ocean （South African monsoon region）, inducing local excessive （deficient） rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMR especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.     

A Velocity Dealiasing Scheme for C-band Weather Radar Systems简

A dealiasing algorithm for radar radial velocity observed by C-band Doppler radars is presented as an extension of an existing S-band dealiasing algorithm. This has operational significance in that many portable and many commercial broadcast radars, as well as approximately one half of the Chinese weather radar network （CINRAD）, are C-band radars. With a wavelength of about 5 cm, the Nyquist interval of C-band radars is just about one half that of S-band radars （wavelength of about 10 cm） and thus has more velocity folding. The proposed algorithm includes seven modules to remove noisy data, find the starting radials, dealias velocities, and apply least squares error checking in both the radial and azimuth directions. The proposed velocity dealiasing method was applied to one widespread rain case and three strong convective cases from radars operating in China. It was found that, on average, 92.95% of the aliased radial velocity data could be correctly de-aliased by the algorithm, resulting in 96.65% of the data being valid.