Probability of plume interception using conditional simulation of hydraulic head and inverse modeling

A procedure to estimate the probability of intercepting a contaminant groundwater plume for monitoring network design has been developed and demonstrated. The objective of the procedure is to use all available information in a method that accounts for the heterogeneity of the aquifer and the paucity of data. The major components of the procedure are geostatistical conditional simulation and parameter estimation that are used sequentially to generate flow paths from a suspected contaminant source location to a designated monitoring transect. From the flow paths, a histogram is constructed that represents the spatial probability distribution of plume centerlines. With an independent estimate of the plume width, a relationship between the total cost and the probability of detecting a plume can be made. The method uses geostatistical information from hydraulic head measurements and is conditioned by the data and the physics of groundwater flow. This procedure was developed specifically for the design of monitoring systems at sites where very few, if any, hydraulic conductivity data are available.     

地下水污染监测网的设计研究进展

地下水污染监测网的设计包括取样点在空间上的采样位置和时间上的取样频率这两方面的确定，其目的是为了准确刻画污染羽在含 水层中随时间的变化状况。概要地回顾了近20年来地下水污染监测网设计的研究成果。分别介绍了统计方法、模拟方法和模拟-优化模型 等监测网设计方法的研究进展。监测网设计方法的选择取决于最终的监测目的以及可供利用的基础资料。指出参数的不确定性是影响污染监 测设计结果的最重要因素。如何将地下水污染监测网设计的理论研究真正与实际应用相结合是今后的主要研究方向。     

Delaunay方法的改进及其在地下水污染监测网设计中的应用

地下水污染监测网的设计包括取样点在空间上的采样位置和时间上的取样频率这两方面的确定,其目的是为了准确刻画污染羽在含水层中随时间的变化状况。介绍了一种新的基于Delaunay三角形剖分方法用于地下水污染监测网在空间上的去冗余设计。同时,针对Delaunay方法没有考虑含水层参数变化和不能新增必要监测点的缺陷,提出了改进措施。改进的Delaunay方法可以直接与污染物的运移模型耦合,通过获取的含水层参数能够比较好地检验监测网在空间上的去冗余设计效果。实例研究表明,该方法在保证监测精度的基础上,能够找到最优的空间取样位置点,同时与改进前相比,利用该方法得到的地下水污染监测网能更加客观地反映污染物在含水层中的空间分布特征。     

基于过程模拟的李官堡水源地地下水污染预警

基于过程模拟的地下水污染预警是基于包气带和饱和带过程模拟的耦合实现的,且融合了涵盖整个地下水系统的四个预警指标。选取浑河冲洪积扇的李官堡水源地为例,基于Hydrus-1D和Visual Modflow分别进行包气带过程模拟和饱和带过程模拟,针对潜层和承压层的复杂程度分别制定了各自的预警临界值;经分析可知,随着时间的推移,地表污染物持续进入到地下水中,污染晕范围不断扩大,地下水中最大浓度值和水源井浓度值也持续增加,且承压含水层的预警级别要高于潜水含水层;同时基于潜层和承压层中污染物最大浓度值与时间分别近似呈线性关系和指数关系可进行长时间尺度的预警;并提出了零级预警区和一级预警区管理措施以监测和预防为主,二级预警区、三级预警区和四级预警区管理措施以控制和监测为主。     

Effectiveness of time-series analysis for thermal plume propagation assessment in an open-loop groundwater heat pump plant

Thermal perturbation produced in the subsurface by open-loop groundwater heat pumps (GWHPs) represents a complex transport phenomenon that is affected by several factors, including intrinsic characteristics of the exploited aquifer, abstraction and reinjection well features, and the temporal dynamics of the accessed groundwater. Post-GWHP water may have become warmed or cooled before being reinjected into the aquifer, thereby creating a thermal plume, known as the thermal affected zone (TAZ), which can alter aquifer temperature. The TAZ is propagated mainly by advection, after which the plume tends to degrade via conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Groundwater monitoring and multiparametric probes are used to check the dynamics of plume propagation and whether a system’s thermal plumes are generating unsuitable interference with wells, subsurface infrastructure, or land use. Analyses of time-series groundwater monitoring data can be used to monitor TAZ movement. In this paper, the thermal plume velocity was calculated by both an analytical solution and cross-correlation. Cross-correlation calculated between temperature measured in the reinjection well and control downstream piezometers can reveal plume dynamics and demonstrate the importance of advective transport in aquifer heat transfer.     

Numerical modeling of contaminant transport in a stratified heterogeneous aquifer with dipping anisotropy

The combined influence of dip angle and adsorption heterogeneity on solute transport mechanisms in heterogeneous media can be understood by performing simulations of steady-state flow and transient transport in a heterogeneous aquifer with dipping anisotropy. Reactive and non-reactive contaminant transport in various types of heterogeneous aquifer is studied by simulations. The hydraulic conductivity (K) of the heterogeneous aquifer is generated by HYDRO_GEN with a Gaussian correlation spectrum. By considering the heterogeneity of the adsorption distribution coefficient (K _d), a perfect negative correlation between lnK and lnK _d is obtained by using the spherical grains model. The generated K and K _d are used as input to groundwater flow and transport models to investigate the effects of dipping sedimentary heterogeneity on contaminant plume evolution. Simulation results showed that the magnitude of the dip angle strongly controls the plume evolution in the studied anisotropic and heterogeneous aquifer. The retarded average pore-water velocity (v/R) of the adsorption model significantly controls the horizontal spreading of the plume. The bottom plume is intensively retarded in the zones between the dipping lenses of lower hydraulic conductivity and the no-flow bottom boundary. The implications of these findings are very important for the management of contaminated heterogeneous aquifers.     

基于不同地质统计方法的渗透系数场对污染物运移的影响

渗透系数场的空间变异性是影响污染物运移结果的决定因素,而地质统计方法是解决渗透系数空间变异性的主要技术手段。本文利用野外场地实测数据,采用普通克里格法和指示克里格法、顺序高斯模拟法和顺序指示模拟法四种地质统计方法,插值估测和模拟再现随机渗透系数场,进而对比研究四种渗透系数场对大尺度污染物运移的影响。研究结果表明,污染羽的质心位置（一阶矩）主要由渗透系数的平均值来决定;污染羽在空间上的展布范围（二阶矩）主要受渗透系数空间变异方差的影响;条件模拟克服了估计法的平滑效果,较好地再现真实曲线的波动性,渗透系数（ lnK）估计方差与污染羽空间二阶矩随着条件模拟次数的增加而减小,并且顺序指示模拟程度更加明显。     

含水层层状非均质对地下水流系统的影响

区域尺度上含水层非均质具有复杂的结构性和随机性,难以准确刻画,造成非均质对区域地下水流系统的影响机制研究不够深入。本文以鄂尔多斯盆地白垩系地下水流系统为研究实例,选择典型剖面,采用剖面二维随机数值模拟方法,通过对比不同非均质刻画方法下地下水流场的变化,探讨含水层层状非均质对地下水流系统的影响机制。结果显示,均质条件下模型各向异性（含水层水平和垂向渗透系数比值Kh/Kv）取值为1000时,地下水流场与实际条件较为接近;非均质条件下,渗透系数方差取值0.91,水平相关长度取值5000 m,Kh/Kv取值150时,接近实际条件。研究表明,在大尺度地下水流模拟研究中,采用水平相关长度、渗透系数方差和各向异性值三个变量生成的随机场能很好地刻画含水层的层状非均质特征及其对水流系统的影响控制作用。由于含水层不同尺度层状非均质的叠加效应,采用均质各向异性介质等效概化含水层层状非均质性会造成等效各向异性值偏大失真的效应。     

昆明地热田岩溶地下热水系统中溶质运移的模拟

通过对昆明地热田深层基岩地下热水系统的地质、水文地质条件和开采现状的分析,建立了考虑温压变化和越流条件的岩溶热储层中地下热水的水流和溶质(污染物)运移的准三维非稳定流数学模型。对开采条件下地热田Ⅱ 块段地下热水系统中水位及F- 、Cl- 、NH+4 、SO2-4 浓度的模拟结果表明,所建立的模型合理、可靠,具有较高的仿真性。模型可预测不同条件下地热田地下热水的流场和溶质浓度的动态变化趋势,为防治地下热水环境的进一步恶化提供参考。      

Site characterization and monitoring of natural attenuation indicator parameters in a fuel contaminated coastal aquifer: Karaduvar (Mersin,SE Turkey)

This paper presents results from a site characterization and monitoring study at Karaduvar area (Mersin, SE Turkey), where high concentrations of refined petroleum products have been detected in domestic and irrigation water wells. The saturated and unsaturated zones in the deltaic aquifer are contaminated by large quantities of gasoline and diesel range fuel hydrocarbons (GRHs and DRHs) released from diverse sources that include accidental spills, storage tank fires, pipeline breaks, deliberate discharge of waste petroleum products from slop tanks and illegal tanker truck washing facilities. At the site, due to the complex nature of the pollution sources, overlapping contaminant plumes exist and cover an area of about 0.5 km². In both polluted and unpolluted parts of the aquifer, monitoring of groundwater physicochemical parameters in a total of 55 sampling points was carried out between 2006 and 2007. The results show that the terminal electron acceptors (e.g. dissolved oxygen, nitrate, Mn(IV), Fe(III), sulfate) were reduced near the source area(s) indicating presence of actively operating biodegradation processes at the site. Close to the contaminant source area(s), conditions in the plume are highly anoxic and reducing; where high amounts of transformation products (e.g. bicarbonate, dissolved iron, and manganese) are present in solution. Additionally, at the site, excessive pumping, careless land use, and deliberate wastewater discharges significantly deteriorated the quality and quantity of groundwater. Excessive groundwater pumping for industrial and agricultural uses has resulted in substantial water level declines (2–3 m) near the coastal part where seawater intrusion threatens the groundwater resources.     

The effect of aquifer heterogeneity on natural attenuation rate of BTEX

Monitored natural attenuation can be a viable option for remediation of groundwater contamination by BTEX compounds. Under the field conditions, the rate of contaminant mass attenuation through natural processes, such as biodegradation, to a large extent affected by the groundwater flow regime, which is primarily controlled by the aquifer heterogeneity. Numerical simulation techniques were used to describe quantitatively the relationship between biodegradation rate of BTEX and aquifer heterogeneity. Different levels of aquifer heterogeneity were described by random hydraulic conductivity fields (K) having different statistical parameters, the coefficient of variation (CV) and the correlation length (h). The Turning Bands Algorithm was used to generate such K fields. Visual MODFLOW/RT3D was used to simulate the fate and transport of dissolved BTEX plume within heterogeneous aquifers. The multispecies reactive transport approach described BTEX degradation using multiple terminal electron-accepting processes. First-order biodegradation rate constants were calculated from simulated BTEX plumes in heterogeneous flow fields. The results showed that aquifer heterogeneity significantly affected biodegradation rate; it decreased with increasing CV when h was in the range of up to 12 m, whereas it increased with increasing CV when h was greater than about 12 m. For well characterized aquifers, this finding could be of great value in assessing the effectiveness of natural attenuation during feasibility studies at BTEX contaminated sites.     

含水层非均质性不同刻画方法对地下水流和溶质运移预测的影响

为探讨含水层非均质性不同刻画方法对地下水流和溶质运移预测的影响,基于非均质含水层砂箱实验,分别用传统等效均质模型、克立金插值和水力层析刻画含水层渗透系数场,并探讨了先验信息对水力层析结果的影响.将不同方法估算的渗透系数场用以预测地下水流和溶质运移过程,以此判断不同方法估算结果的优劣,分析含水层非均质性对地下水流和溶质运移的影响.结果表明:与克立金插值法相比,水力层析法可以更好地刻画含水层非均质性,较准确地预测地下水流和溶质运移过程;钻孔岩心渗透系数样本值作为先验信息可以提高水力层析法估算结果的精度;传统等效均质模型无法准确预测地下水流和溶质运移过程.含水层非均质性的增强将导致溶质污染羽分布形态和运移路径的空间变异性增强,并且优势通道直接决定溶质的分布及运移路径.      

Testing of stack-unit/aquifer sensitivity analysis using contaminant plume distribution in the subsurface of Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA

Published information on the correlation and field-testing of the technique of stack-unit/aquifer sensitivity mapping with documented subsurface contaminant plumes is rare. The inherent characteristic of stack-unit mapping, which makes it a superior technique to other analyses that amalgamate data, is the ability to deconstruct the sensitivity analysis on a unit-by-unit basis. An aquifer sensitivity map, delineating the relative sensitivity of the Crouch Branch aquifer of the Administrative/Manufacturing Area (A/M) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, USA, incorporates six hydrostratigraphic units, surface soil units, and relevant hydrologic data. When this sensitivity map is compared with the distribution of the contaminant tetrachloroethylene (PCE), PCE is present within the Crouch Branch aquifer within an area classified as highly sensitive, even though the PCE was primarily released on the ground surface within areas classified with low aquifer sensitivity. This phenomenon is explained through analysis of the aquifer sensitivity map, the groundwater potentiometric surface maps, and the plume distributions within the area on a unit-by- unit basis. The results of this correlation show how the paths of the PCE plume are influenced by both the geology and the groundwater flow.     

Optimizing groundwater monitoring systems for landfills with random leaks under heterogeneous subsurface conditions

Landfills are one of the most common human activities threatening the natural groundwater quality. The landfill may leak, and the corresponding plumes may contaminate an area, entailing costly remediation measures. The objective of the installation of monitoring systems at landfill sites is to detect the contaminant plumes before they reach the regulatory compliance boundary in order to enable cost-effective counter measures. In this study, a classical decision analysis approach is linked to a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal groundwater monitoring system given uncertainties due to the hydrogeological conditions and contaminant source characteristics. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate uncertainties. Hydraulic conductivity and the leak location are the random inputs of the simulation model. The design objectives are to: (1) maximize the detection probability, (2) minimize the area of contamination at the time of detection, and (3) minimize the total cost of the monitoring system. A synthetic test case based on a real-world case in the Netherlands is analyzed. The results show that monitoring systems located close to the source are optimal except for the cases with very high unit installation and sampling cost and/or very cheap unit remediation.     

Monitoring well placement using conditional simulation of hydraulic head

A theoretical technique for conditioning simulations in frequency domain is developed and then applied to a hydraulic-head data set from Pittman, Nevada. Frequency-domain simulation rapidly generates simulations while requiring minimal computer memory. This makes it possible by using a personal computer to create large numbers of simulations of a physical parameter field for use in studying stochastic processes. In our application, groundwater flowlines are constructed from the simulations of the hydraulic head field. Then, the crossings of the flowlines at a transect down-stream from a contaminant point source generate histograms for predicting the probability of plume interception by groundwater monitoring wells. The simulation process is discussed in detail for the Pittman study site.     

基于转移概率地质统计的淮南顾桥矿区松散层含水介质刻画

含水介质的空间分布及其非均质性对地下水流和溶质运移有着重要的影响。以淮南顾桥矿区作为研究对象,为了刻画矿区松散层含水介质的空间分布,使用转移概率地质统计方法建立含水介质的随机模型,对矿区水文地质结构的空间连续性和空间变异性进行表征;并将随机模拟得到的顾桥矿区含水介质剖面图与矿区原始水文地质剖面进行对比。结果表明,基于转移概率地质统计模拟方法可以比较准确地刻画矿区的水文地质结构;模拟剖面与原始水文地质剖面的比较显示模拟结果与实际含水介质空间分布情况有较好的一致性,转移概率地质统计方法在对含水介质非均质性刻画中具有较好的适用性。     

The effects of aquifer heterogeneity on the 3D numerical simulation of soil and groundwater contamination at a chlor-alkali site in China

The simulation of groundwater flow and solute transport at contaminated sites often neglects the important influence that aquifer heterogeneity can have on the sub-surface distribution of contaminants. In this paper, the method of transition probability for geological statistics (T-PROGS) included in the Groundwater Model System (GMS) was applied to a chlor-alkali-contaminated site that was sampled with 68 soil borings and 15 groundwater monitoring wells. A 3-D groundwater numerical model and solute transport model was developed that was constrained by soil and groundwater data from the site. The spatial distribution of chloroethylene concentrations was simulated for a number of times using the levels measured in the field as a baseline. The results of these simulations showed that shapes and distribution of contaminant plumes are irregular both vertically and horizontally. The solute-transport simulations indicated that much of the contamination will preferentially move in groundwater through silt and fine-sands whereas flow is largely blocked in clays. Consequently, fine sand and silts become the most seriously polluted zones at the site, whereas, areas underlain by clays are largely uncontaminated. Heterogeneous lithologies beneath a site increase the complexity of coupling simulations of soil and groundwater.     

深层水漏斗区开采量组成变化特征与机制

为阐明强烈开采条件下华北平原深层水的开采水量来源及组成问题,以德州地区深层水漏斗分布区为重点研究区,通过基于大量钻孔资料对含水层组及其粘性土夹层或透镜体的分析和野外地下水采样、动态监测及地面沉降测量资料等分析,采用分层、分区计算方法对漏斗中心至外围的各分区弹性释水量、粘性土压密释水量、侧向流入和越流补给量进行均衡计算。结果表明:在强烈开采条件下,深层水开采量中弹性释水量和压密释水量所占比率不是常量,随着深层水位下降的幅度和深度增大、超采释压持续时间愈长、开采层中粘性土夹层或透镜体愈多,则区内弹性释水和压密释水的强度及累积地面沉降量愈大;愈靠近漏斗中心,弹性和压密释水强度愈大,相同降深下平均单位降深的地面沉降量愈小。在深层水开采量中粘性土压密释水占35.5%~61.9%,与地面沉降密切相关。     

基于MODFLOW参数不确定性的地下水水流数值模拟方法

考虑到模型不确定性引起的地下水数值模拟不确定性对模拟过程的影响,在简要介绍含水层水文地质参数变异性研究进展和地质统计学的基础上,基于常用的确定性地下水流数值模拟软件MODFLOW开发了MODFLOW-Gslib软件,相较于传统的数值模拟方法,将地质统计学与数值模拟结合的方法能够模拟非均质含水层中的参数变异性问题。将MODFLOW-Gslib软件运用于模拟实例中,选择常见的不确定性因素进行模拟,并对其模拟产生的数据进行统计分析,结果表明,软件转化后的参数符合水文地质参数不确定性的相关特征;与原模拟结果进行对比,该软件能够更加真实地刻画含水层参数变异性特征。     

Contamination,risk, and heterogeneity: on the effectiveness of aquifer remediation

The effectiveness of aquifer remediation is typically expressed in terms of a reduction in contaminant concentrations relative to a regulated maximum contaminant level (MCL), and is usually confirmed by sparse monitoring data and/or simple model calculations. Here, the effectiveness of remediation is re-examined from a more thorough risk-based perspective that goes beyond the traditional MCL concept. A methodology is employed to evaluate the health risk to individuals exposed to contaminated household water that is produced from groundwater. This approach explicitly accounts for differences in risk arising from variability in individual physiology and water use, the uncertainty in estimating chemical carcinogenesis for different individuals, and the uncertainties and variability in contaminant concentrations within groundwater as affected by transport through heterogeneous geologic media. A hypothetical contamination scenario is developed as a case study in a saturated, alluvial aquifer underlying an actual Superfund site. A baseline (unremediated) human exposure and health risk scenario, as induced by contaminated groundwater pumped from this site, is predicted and compared with a similar estimate based upon pump-and-treat exposure intervention. The predicted reduction in risk in the remediation scenario is not an equitable one—that is, it is not uniform to all individuals within a population and varies according to the level of uncertainty in prediction. The importance of understanding the detailed hydrogeologic connections that are established in the heterogeneous geologic regime between the contaminated source, municipal receptors, and remediation wells, and its relationship to this uncertainty is demonstrated. Using two alternative pumping rates, we develop cost-benefit curves based upon reduced exposure and risk to different individuals within the population, under the presence of uncertainty.