The effects of boreal forest expansion on the summer Arctic frontal zone

Over the last 100?years, Arctic warming has resulted in a longer growing season in boreal and tundra ecosystems. This has contributed to a slow northward expansion of the boreal forest and a decrease in the surface albedo. Corresponding changes to the surface and atmospheric energy budgets have contributed to a broad region of warming over areas of boreal forest expansion. In addition, mesoscale and synoptic scale patterns have changed as a result of the excess energy at and near the surface. Previous studies have identified a relationship between the positioning of the boreal forest-tundra ecotone and the Arctic frontal zone in summer. This study examines the climate response to hypothetical boreal forest expansion and its influence on the summer Arctic frontal zone. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the Northern Hemisphere, an experiment was performed to evaluate the atmospheric response to expansion of evergreen and deciduous boreal needleleaf forests into open shrubland along the northern boundary of the existing forest. Results show that the lower surface albedo with forest expansion leads to a local increase in net radiation and an average hemispheric warming of 0.6°C at and near the surface during June with some locations warming by 1–2°C. This warming contributes to changes in the meridional temperature gradient that enhances the Arctic frontal zone and strengthens the summertime jet. This experiment suggests that continued Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and boreal forest expansion might contribute to additional climate changes during the summer.     

Winter AO/NAO modifies summer ocean heat content and monsoonal circulation over the western Indian Ocean

This paper analyzes the possible influence of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO) on the Indian Ocean upper ocean heat content in summer as well as the summer monsoonal circulation. The strong interannual co-variation between winter 1000-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and summer ocean heat content in the uppermost 120 m over the tropical Indian Ocean was investigated by a singular decomposition analysis for the period 1979–2014. The second paired-modes explain 23.8% of the squared covariance, and reveal an AO/NAO pattern over the North Atlantic and a warming upper ocean in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The positive upper ocean heat content enhances evaporation and convection, and results in an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motion over 5°S–5°N and descending over 15°–25°N. Correspondingly, in the lower troposphere, significantly anomalous northerly winds appear over the western Indian Ocean north of the equator, implying a weaker summer monsoon circulation. The off-equator oceanic Rossby wave plays a key role in linking the AO/NAO and the summer heat content anomalies. In boreal winter, a positive AO/NAO triggers a down-welling Rossby wave in the central tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric teleconnection. As the Rossby wave arrives in the western Indian Ocean in summer, it results in anomalous upper ocean heating near the equator mainly through the meridional advection. The AO/NAO-forced Rossby wave and the resultant upper ocean warming are well reproduced by an ocean circulation model. The winter AO/NAO could be a potential season-lead driver of the summer atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Indian Ocean.     

Physical processes responsible for the interannual variability of sea ice concentration in Arctic in boreal autumn since 1979

Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) in boreal autumn exhibits prominent interannual variability since 1979. The physical mechanism responsible for the year-to-year variation of ASIC is investigated through observational data analyses and idealized numerical modeling. It is found that the ASIC interannual variability is closely associated with the anomalous meridional circulations over the Northern Hemisphere, which is further linked with the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. A tropics-wide SST cooling anomaly leads to an enhanced meridional SST gradient to the north of the equator in boreal summer, generating strengthened and northward shifting Hadley circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, the meridional circulations are enhanced and pushed poleward, leading to an enhanced descending motion at the North Pole, surrounded by an ascending motion anomaly; the surface outflow turns into easterly anomalies, opposing the mean-state winds. As a result, positive cloudiness and weakened surface wind speed emerge, which reduce ASIC through changes in the surface latent heat flux and the downward longwave radiation.     

EFFECT OF PLANETARY AND SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES IN MAINTAINING MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS AT MID AND LOW LATITUDES*

Following Wu and Chen(1989), in terms of the elliptical differential equation with mean meridional stream function, an equation similar in form to that developed by Kuo(1956) and by use of time average statistics of atmospheric circulation in wavenumber domains at the same intervals of time, a study is made of the contribution of the internal forcing of the atmosphere in two space scales to mean meridional circulation. Results show that planetary waves have considerable influence on the intensity of the upper center of the bi-Hadley cell, and, in contrast, synoptic-scale waves exert vital effect on the Ferrel cell, and that in the Northern Hamisphere(NH) such internal forcings by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves are comparable on mean meridional circulations whereas the latter contribute far more than the former in the Southern Hemisphere(SH).Further, in the northern winter(summer) the contribution of heat(angular momentum) transport of planetary waves allows the descending(ascending) branch to occur as far as around 40°N, some kind of effect that makes quite important contribution to the winter(summer) monsoon circulation in eastern Asia.     

澳洲大陆热力强迫对南北半球环流异常的影响效应

本文采用OSU-AGCM动力框架加入牛顿加热项构成的简化大气环流模式,研究澳洲大陆热力强迫与南北半球环流异常的相关关系。本文对不同平衡温度模拟结果的差异(偏差场)进行了分析,探讨某局地热力强迫对全球其它区域环流异常的影响效应.数值试验结果表明,南北半球海陆热力结构有利于两半球行星尺度经向环流的加强及其低纬跨赤道气流的形成:南半球澳洲大陆热力强迫可以通过东、西风带侧向藕合效应,显著地影响北半球中纬西风带急流状况;二维Rossby波能量频散径向传播可能足澳洲热力强迫与北半球常定环流系统的异常变化相关现象的重要成因,且澳洲大陆强迫产生的径向波列路经与PNA、EU型相似.     

南极海冰涛动对北半球夏季大气环流的影响

南极海冰首要模态呈现偶极子型异常,正负异常中心分别位于别林斯高晋海/阿蒙森海和威德尔海。过去研究表明冬春季节南极海冰涛动异常对后期南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）型大气环流有显著影响,而AAO可以通过经向遥相关等机制影响北半球大气环流和东亚气候。本文中我们利用观测分析发现南极海冰涛动从5～7月（May–July,MJJ）到8～10月（August–October, ASO）有很好的持续性,并进一步分析其对北半球夏季大气环流的可能影响及其物理过程。结果表明,MJJ南极海冰涛动首先通过冰气相互作用在南半球激发持续性的AAO型大气环流异常,使得南半球中纬度和极地及热带之间的气压梯度加大,在MJJ至JAS,纬向平均纬向风呈现显著的正负相间的从南极到北极的经向遥相关型分布。对流层中层位势高度场上,在澳大利亚北部到海洋性大陆区域,出现显著的负异常,在东亚沿岸从低纬到高纬呈现南北走向的“? + ?”太平洋—日本（Pacific–Japan,PJ）遥相关波列,其对应赤道中部太平洋及赤道印度洋存在显著的降水和海温负异常,西北太平洋至我国东部沿海地区存在显著降水正异常和温度负异常;低纬度北美洲到大西洋一带存在的负位势高度异常和北大西洋附近存在的正位势高度异常中心,构成一个类似于西大西洋型遥相关（Western Atlantic,WA）的结构,对应赤道南大西洋降水增加和南撒哈拉地区降水减少。从物理过程来看,南极海冰涛动首先通过局地效应影响Ferrel环流,进而通过经圈环流调整使得海洋性大陆区域和热带大西洋上方的Hadley环流上升支得到增强,海洋性大陆区域特别是菲律宾附近的热带对流活动偏强,激发类似于负位相的PJ波列,影响东亚北太平洋地区的大气环流,而热带大西洋对流增强和北传特征,则通过激发WA遥相关影响大西洋和欧洲地区的大气环流。以上两种通道将持续性MJJ至ASO南极海冰涛动强迫的大气环流信号从南半球中高纬度经热带地区传递到北半球中高纬地区,从而对热带和北半球夏季大气环流产生显著影响。     

有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展

南半球大气环流是全球大气环流的重要组成部分,也是影响气候变化和亚洲季风系统的一个重要因素.中国气象学家很早就注意到南半球大气环流对东亚夏季风降水的影响.近年来,有关南半球气候变率的研究目前正受到世界气象学家越来越多的关注.南半球中高纬大气资料的丰富及南极涛动的确定,使得认识南半球高中纬环流的年际变动规律及其与东亚气候关系成为可能.本文主要介绍近年来有关南极涛动的年际变化与沙尘天气发生频次及东亚冬春季气候的关系,古气候资料揭示的南极涛动与华北降水的关系,以及南半球大气环流与长江中下游夏季降水的关系和南极涛动变率的可预测性等方面的研究进展.并对未来研究方向作了初步的展望.     

Shortwave radiation�CSST relationship over the mid-latitude North Pacific during boreal summer in climate models

Over the mid-latitude North Pacific, there is a close relationship between interannual variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface shortwave radiation during boreal summer. The present study evaluates this relationship in coupled model simulations, forced model simulations, and retrospective forecasts. It is found that the simulation of this relationship in climate models is closely related to the model biases in the meridional gradients of mean SST and surface shortwave radiation. A southward shift in the region of large mean meridional gradients leads to a similar southward shift in the region of large correlation between the SST and shortwave radiation variations. The relationship is enhanced (weakened) when the mean meridional gradients are stronger (weaker) compared to observations. The shortwave radiation?CSST correlation is weak in individual forced simulations because of the interference of internally generated shortwave radiation variations. The shortwave radiation?CSST correlation increases significantly in the ensemble mean due to reduction of internally generated variability. The long-lead Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecasts have a better simulation of the shortwave radiation?CSST correlation compared to the short-lead forecasts. Estimation based on the CFS ensemble forecasts indicates that the high-frequency atmospheric variations contribute importantly to the SST variability over the mid-latitude North Pacific during boreal summer.     

Influence of tropical cyclones on sea surface temperature seasonal cycle and ocean heat transport

Recent studies suggested that tropical cyclones (TCs) contribute significantly to the meridional oceanic heat transport by injecting heat into the subsurface through mixing. Here, we estimate the long-term oceanic impact of TCs by inserting realistic wind vortices along observed TCs tracks in a 1/2° resolution ocean general circulation model over the 1978–2007 period. Warming of TCs’ cold wakes results in a positive heat flux into the ocean (oceanic heat uptake; OHU) of ~480 TW, consistent with most recent estimates. However, ~2/5 of this OHU only compensates the heat extraction by the TCs winds during their passage. Another ~2/5 of this OHU is injected in the seasonal thermocline and hence released back to the atmosphere during the following winter. Because of zonal compensations and equatorward transport, only one-tenth of the OHU is actually exported poleward (46 TW), resulting in a marginal maximum contribution of TCs to the poleward ocean heat transport. Other usually neglected TC-related processes however impact the ocean mean state. The residual Ekman pumping associated with TCs results in a sea-level drop (rise) in the core (northern and southern flanks) of TC-basins that expand westward into the whole basin as a result of planetary wave propagation. More importantly, TC-induced mixing and air-sea fluxes cool the surface in TC-basins during summer, while the re-emergence of subsurface warm anomalies warms it during winter. This leads to a ~10 % reduction of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle within TCs basins, which may impact the climate system.     

Resolution of the atmospheric model matters for the Northern Hemisphere Mid-Holocene climate

This study evaluates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on model resolution and orography for the mid-Holocene. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 are performed with low (∼3.75°, 19 vertical levels) and high (∼1.1°, 31 vertical levels) resolution. Results are compared to the respective preindustrial runs. It is found that the large-scale temperature anomalies for the mid-Holocene (compared to preindustrial) are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions. For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes caused by the response to thermal forcing in conjunction with orographic resolution. For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. The anomaly differences (low minus high resolution version) in the Northern Hemisphere are regionally as large as the anomalous mid-Holocene temperature signals. Furthermore, they depend on the applied surface boundary conditions. We conclude that the resolution matters for the Northern Hemisphere response in mid-Holocene simulations, which should be taken into account in model-model and data-model comparisons.     

经圈环流对定常波传播的影响

在一般斜压大气中，基本气流中包含经圈环流时，定常波传播不仅能穿过东风带，而且明显增强。在基流含有经圈环流的情况下，北半球中纬度地形强迫可引起低纬大气的显著响应，这表明经圈环流在中低纬定常响应的相互联系中起着重要作用；北半球中纬度热力强迫可产生类似北半球夏季季风环流的波列分布，这说明经圈环流在夏季季风环流的形成中起着一定的作用；在赤道东太平洋加热强迫情况下，在冬半球可引起ＰＮＡ型的定常波传播波列，而在夏半球却没有明显的ＰＮＡ特征。这表明经圈环流对冬、夏半球的定常波传播路径有着显著的影响。     

Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model

Storm tracks play a major role in regulating the precipitation and hydrological cycle in midlatitudes. The changes in the location and amplitude of the storm tracks in response to global warming will have significant impacts on the poleward transport of heat, momentum and moisture and on the hydrological cycle. Recent studies have indicated a poleward shift of the storm tracks and the midlatitude precipitation zone in the warming world that will lead to subtropical drying and higher latitude moistening. This study agrees with this key feature for not only the annual mean but also different seasons and for the zonal mean as well as horizontal structures based on the analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 model simulations. Further analyses show that the meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes associated with the storm tracks shift poleward and intensify in both boreal summer and winter in the late twenty-first century (years 2081?C2100) relative to the latter half of the twentieth century (years 1961?C2000). The maximum dry Eady growth rate is examined to determine the effect of global warming on the time mean state and associated available potential energy for transient growth. The trend in maximum Eady growth rate is generally consistent with the poleward shift and intensification of the storm tracks in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres in both seasons. However, in the lower troposphere in northern winter, increased meridional eddy transfer within the storm tracks is more associated with increased eddy velocity, stronger correlation between eddy velocity and eddy moist static energy, and longer eddy length scale. The changing characteristics of baroclinic instability are, therefore, needed to explain the storm track response as climate warms. Diagnosis of the latitude-by-latitude energy budget for the current and future climate demonstrates how the coupling between radiative and surface heat fluxes and eddy heat and moisture transport influences the midlatitude storm track response to global warming. Through radiative forcing by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapor, more energy is gained within the tropics and subtropics, while in the middle and high latitudes energy is reduced through increased outgoing terrestrial radiation in the Northern Hemisphere and increased ocean heat uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. This enhanced energy imbalance in the future climate requires larger atmospheric energy transports in the midlatitudes which are partially accomplished by intensified storm tracks. Finally a sequence of cause and effect for the storm track response in the warming world is proposed that combines energy budget constraints with baroclinic instability theory.     

On the role of high latitude ice,snow, and vegetation feedbacks in the climatic response to external forcing changes

A seasonal energy balance climate model containing a detailed treatment of surface and planetary albedo, and in which seasonally varying land snow and sea ice amounts are simulated in terms of a number of explicit physical processes, is used to investigate the role of high latitude ice, snow, and vegetation feedback processes. Feedback processes are quantified by computing changes in radiative forcing and feedback factors associated with individual processes. Global sea ice albedo feedback is 5–8 times stronger than global land snowcover albedo feedback for a 2% solar constant increase or decrease, with Southern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback being 2–5 times stronger than Northern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback.In the absence of changes in ice extent, changes in ice thickness in response to an increase in solar constant are associated with an increase in summer surface melting which is exactly balanced by increased basal winter freezing, and a reduction in the upward ocean-air flux in summer which is exactly balanced by an increased flux in winter, with no change in the annual mean ocean-air flux. Changes in the mean annual ocean-air heat flux require changes in mean annual ice extent, and are constrained to equal the change in meridional oceanic heat flux convergence in equilibrium. Feedback between ice extent and the meridional oceanic heat flux obtained by scaling the oceanic heat diffusion coefficient by the ice-free fraction regulates the feedback between ice extent and mean annual air-sea heat fluxes in polar regions, and has a modest effect on model-simulated high latitude temperature change.Accounting for the partial masking effect of vegetation on snow-covered land reduces the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant decrease or increase by 20% and 10%, respectively, even though the radiative forcing change caused by land snowcover changes is about 3 times larger in the absence of vegetational masking. Two parameterizations of the tundra fraction are tested: one based on mean annual land air temperature, and the other based on July land air temperature. The enhancement of the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature response to solar constant changes when the forest-tundra ecotone is allowed to shift with climate is only 1/3 to 1/2 that obtained by Otterman et al. (1984) when the mean annual parameterization is used here, and only 1/4 to 1/3 as large using the July parameterization.The parameterized temperature dependence of ice and snow albedo is found to enhance the global mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant increase by only 0.04 °C, in sharp contrast to the results of Washington and Meehl (1986) obtained with a mean annual model. However, there are significant differences in the method used here and in Washington and Meehl to estimate the importance of this feedback process. When their approach is used in a mean annual version of the present model, closer agreement to their results is obtained.     

Sensitivity of the northern extratropics hydrological cycle to the changing insolation forcing at 126 and 115 ky BP

The orbital configuration at the end of the last interglacial, 115,000 years BP (115 ky BP), was such that the Northern Hemisphere seasonal contrast was decreased when compared to the last interglacial maximum, 126 ky BP. Climatic reconstructions argue for increased latitudinal surface temperature and salinity gradients in the North Atlantic at 115 ky BP compared to 126 ky BP. According to proxy measurements the high-latitude ocean freshening may be explained by enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection which would have then led to decreased deep convection activity in the northern seas. To evaluate such re-adjustments of the atmospheric circulation to the insolation forcing changes, we have explored the changes in atmospheric energy balance and transport with two AGCM experiments, one for each climate. We show that the northward increase in static heat transport at 115 ky BP to 126 ky BP constitutes a first order response to the changing insolation. It tends to equalise the heat balance of the atmosphere. Despite sea surface temperatures fixed (SSTs) to present-day this feature is strongly amplified by the air–sea heat flux exchanges. By comparing with OAGCM experiments for the same periods, we find that the simulated surface ocean heat flux responses to insolation forcing are similar whether the ocean is allowed to vary or not. The latent heat transport does not undergo the same changes as the dry static one. On an annual basis, it decreases over the high northern latitudes. This is the result of summer modification of moisture sources and transient activity. The latter appears to affect latent heat transport much more than the dry static one. The winter response, however, differs from the summer response which dominates the annual mean. There is an enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection during winter at 115 ky BP, which is responsible for the freshening of high-latitude ocean during this season. This result seems to confirm the hypothesis inferred from marine data.     

THE ROLE OF THE MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN STATIONARY WAVE PROPAGATION

In a general baroclinic atmosphere,when the basic state includes meridional circulation,the sta-tionary waves might not only pass through the equatorial easterlies,but also strengthen significantly.The orographic forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude might cause marked responses in thelow latitude atmosphere.This suggests that the meridional circulation plays an important role in theconnection of stationary responses in mid and low latitudes,and so does the heating forcing in theNorthern Hemisphere mid-latitude.Forced by the heating forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude,the features similar to the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation can be ob-tained.It appears that the meridional circulation plays certain role in the formation of summer mon-soon circulation.The heating anomaly forcing located at the eastern equatorial Pacific makes the sta-tionary waves present PNA(Pacific-North America)pattern in the winter hemisphere,but it doesnot in the summer hemisphere.It suggests that the meridional circulation has a marked influence onthe route of stationary wave propagation both in the winter and summer hemispheres.     

The 1877–1878 El Niño episode: associated impacts in South America

At times when attention on climate issues is strongly focused on the assessment of potential impacts of future climate change due to the intensification of the planetary greenhouse effect, it is perhaps pertinent to look back and explore the consequences of past climate variability. In this article we examine a large disruption in global climate that occurred during 1877–1878, when human influence was negligible. The mechanisms explaining this global disturbance are not well established, but there is considerable evidence that the major El Niño episode that started by the end of 1876 and peaked during the 1877–1878 boreal winter contributed significantly to it. The associated regional climate anomalies were extremely destructive, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where starvation due to intense droughts in Asia, South-East Asia and Africa took the lives of more than 20 million people. In South America regional precipitation anomalies were typical of El Niño events, with rainfall deficit and droughts in the northern portion of the continent as well as in northeast Brazil and the highlands of the central Andes (Altiplano). In contrast, anomalously intense rainfall and flooding episodes were reported for the coastal areas of southern Ecuador and Northern Perú, as well as along the extratropical West coast of the continent (central Chile, 30° S–40° S), and in the Paraná basin in the southeast region. By far the most devastating impacts in terms of suffering and loss of life occurred in the semiarid region of northeast Brazil where several hundreds of thousands of people died from starvation and diseases during the drought that started in 1877.     

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

 The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO₂ concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks. Received: 5 December 1996 / Accepted: 16 June 1997     

一个海洋环流模式模拟的北印度洋经向环流及其热输送

对比两个同化资料GODAS（Global Ocean Data Assimilation System）和SODA（Simple Ocean Data Assimilation）,考察中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统海洋模式LICOM（LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model）模拟的北印度洋经向环流及热输送的气候态。LICOM能抓住北印度洋大尺度环流的季节变化特征,模拟的年平均越赤道热输送为-0.24 PW （1 PW=1015W）,较之以往的数值模式结果更接近观测和同化资料。与同化资料的差异主要体现在季节变化强度,北半球夏季在赤道以南偏弱0.5 PW,这与模式夏季的纬向风应力偏弱,热输送中的大项Ekman热输送模拟偏弱,从而模拟的经圈翻转环流较浅有关。     

从Rossby波能量频散理论到准定常行星波动力学研究的发展

本文是为纪念叶笃正院士诞辰百周年和他对大气动力学发展的重大贡献而撰写的.叶先生在20世纪40年代所提出的罗斯贝波能量频散理论不仅至今仍广泛应用于天气预报,而且开创了准定常行星波动力学的研究.在罗斯贝波频散理论的启迪和引领下,行星波动力学和大气环流异常遥相关的研究取得重要进展.特别是关于准定常行星波在二维和三维球面大气的传播特征以及北半球夏季大气环流异常的EAP(East Asia-Pacific)型和"丝绸之路(Silk Road)"型遥相关及其机理已做出系统的研究,本文简要地回顾这些研究.并且,本文还回顾了在叶先生所提出罗斯贝波能量频散理论的引领下,近年来我们关于东亚冬、夏季风和我国气候灾害的年际和年代际变化的内动力学机理研究所取得的进展.     

Simulation of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes by CAMS-CSM

As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circulation, and their variabilities substantially impact the climate in mid-high latitudes. A 35-yr(1979-2013) simulation by the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) was carried out based on observed sea surface temperature and sea ice data. The ability of CAMS-CSM in simulating horizontal and vertical structures of the NAM and SAM, relation of the NAM to the East Asian climate, and temporal variability of the SAM is examined and validated against the observational data. The results show that CAMS-CSM captures the zonally symmetric and out-of-phase variations of sea level pressure anomaly between the midlatitudes and polar zones in the extratropics of the NH and SH. The model has also captured the equivalent barotropic structure in tropospheric geopotential height and the meridional shifts of the NH and SH jet systems associated with the NAM and SAM anomalies. Furthermore, the model is able to reflect the variability of northern and southern Ferrel cells corresponding to the NAM and SAM anomalies. The model reproduces the observed relationship of the boreal winter NAM with the East Asian trough and air temperature over East Asia. It also captures the upward trend of the austral summer SAM index during recent decades. However, compared with the observation, the model shows biases in both the intensity and center locations of the NAM's and SAM's horizontal and vertical structures. Specifically, it overestimates their intensities.