Recent seasonal rainfall and temperature relationships in peninsular Florida

Rainfall and temperature records for the last half century are analyzed for peninsular Florida. A recent increase in winter precipitation, weakening toward the south, appears to be related to the temperature decline of the last several decades. Autumn decrease in precipitation in the last two decades is apparently due to suppression of tropical cyclonic activity. The reverse of both of these trends was evident prior to the 1940s. These climatic patterns have resulted in seasonal redistribution of precipitation throughout the Florida peninsula and extended drought conditions for the southern half of the peninsula.     

城市暴雨强度公式研究进展与述评

能够客观反映城市降雨特征与规律的暴雨强度公式是城市排水防涝基础设施建设、海绵城市建设过程中相关工程规划、设计的重要前提。简述了暴雨强度公式推求的过程,从暴雨强度公式型式、暴雨资料选样方法、频率曲线选择、频率曲线参数估计以及暴雨强度公式的参数求解等方面,系统梳理了国内外发展现状,深入分析、归纳了各种方法的优缺点,对暴雨强度公式编制过程中存在的两步最优与直接拟合、公式拟合的"异参同效"、公式及参数合理性分析以及编制长历时暴雨强度公式等问题进行深入剖析,认为暴雨强度公式还需在全要素误差分析、成果合理性检验、降雨空间分布、气候变化对城市未来降雨的影响等方面进行深入研究。     

Four types of relationships between rainfall and paddy production in Sri Lanka

Due to the absence of marked thermal differences in Sri Lanka, the paddy-climate relationship has been confined to rainfall alone in this study. Increase in total paddy production is highly attributed by the increase in paddy lands rather than yields, particularly in the drier parts, called Dry Zone. The effective rainfall period for the two principal cropping seasons in Sri Lanka, Maha and Yala, were determined according to the crop calendar of the Districts. The deviation values from the trend lines of 20 years (1961–1980) observations in sown, harvest and yield were well correlated with the deviations from the mean rainfall. The effects of rainfall on paddy production are well pronounced in the Dry Zone during the Maha season and in the Wet Zone during the Yala season. From the statictical analyses, four types of relationship, were observed: (1) Type I is the positive relationship, (2) Type II is the negative relationship, (3) Type III is the no realtionship and (4) Type IV a complex one which has a positive relationship below certain critical rainfall value and no or negative relationship above the critical rainfall value. The combination of Types I and IV shows the areas which need irrigation facilities with proper water management while the combination of the Types II and III indicates the areas which are prone to frequent floods and waterloggings.     

Impact of extreme rainfall in the central Sudan during 1999 as a partial analogue for reconstructing early Holocene prehistoric environments

The year 1999 was an exceptionally wet year, with severe floods in China, India and Australia and very high flow in the Nile. In Sudan, the July rainfall was unusually early and heavy, and persistent rains throughout August and early September caused severe floods in much of central Sudan, including Khartoum.The synoptic conditions historically associated with extreme rainfall events in central Sudan include a warm equatorial Indian Ocean, a strong summer monsoon over both Africa and India, a northward shift of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone earlier and further north than usual, and the presence of deep, well-developed westerly air masses accompanied by a strong Tropical Easterly Jet that allowed more moisture transport into Africa from the South Atlantic via the Congo basin, leading to very heavy precipitation in the Ethiopian uplands and the central Sudan.The intense late wet season rains in 1999 caused a major canal in the Gezira Irrigation Area to break its banks and filled normally dry depressions between dunes with water, providing a partial analogue of early Holocene environments in this region when small groups of Later Stone Age peoples occupied the sandy ridges seasonally. Global Circulation Models cannot provide such detailed local information.     

Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand

A higher precipitation concentration, represented by greater percentages of the yearly total precipitation in a few very rainy days, has the potential to impact considerably on water resources. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of daily precipitation concentration in New Zealand has been carried out by means of a daily precipitation dataset. Results show a different behavior between North Island, with the most critical rainfall concentration, and South Island, where precipitation concentration values on the eastern side are comparable to those of North Island, while the western side presents the lowest values of precipitation concentration. On a seasonal scale, the spatial gradients for summer and autumn are similar to the annual one. The application of the Mann–Kendall test shows a general negative trend detected in the eastern part of North Island, in particular in winter and autumn, and a west/east difference trend in South Island, in particular in winter and summer.     

Analysis of time-varying rainfall infiltration induced landslide

A case study of rainstorm-induced landslide is modeled following the hourly rainfall time series from the stage of infiltration caused by induced slope movement and soil saturated to excess pore pressures—Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS). The grid-based landslide stability analysis was conducted to model the increased pore pressures and runoff in the study area under the specified rainfall conditions. The generated time variances of pore pressures help determine landslide characteristics and mechanisms under rainfall conditions. Inputs of soil properties and permeability parameters for landslide stability analysis in the study area were prepared by TRIGRS adopted for transient infiltration analysis. Results of the analyses show that under heavy rainfall conditions, the infiltrated slope is unstable and the time of debris masses movement initiated is correlated to the recorded time. In the initiated landslide, characteristics and effects are considered and reflected in the numerical modeling under combinations of topography, land use, climatic and geological conditions. Results reveal that there is a plane failure surface and a potential circular failure surface at the study site besides the rock topple failures in the crest. A grid-based slope-stability analysis incorporated with the GIS spatial functions is more advantageous than the traditional two-dimensional analysis for specified slope profiles to determine the whole behavior of a slope.     

北京地区泥石流灾害临界雨量阈值分析

对历史上北京市泥石流灾害发生时前3日的雨量、当日激发雨量和最大1小时雨量进行了分析,确定了临界雨量阚值。参照山洪灾害与降雨频率分析法,分3种方案对北京市的泥石流灾害与降雨频率进行分析,计算了各地区不同时段（最大10分钟、最大30分钟、最大60分钟、最大360分钟、最大24小时、最大3天及最大7天）的临界雨量;并利用历史上泥石流灾害发生时的雨量值对3种方案下的计算结果进行了验证和对比,最后确定了准确度较高的一种计算方案。     

暴雨型滑坡降水入渗机理分析

暴雨能诱发大量的滑坡发生,在不同地区存在不同的临界降雨值,每当雨强大于该值时,滑坡就会大面积发生,这已经被多起滑坡事件证实。一般地,入渗理论认为,当雨强大于一定值时,入渗率是常量,过强的降水会转化为地表径流,这与雨强越大滑坡越易发生、群发性越强的观察结果不一致。在斜坡体上存在大量的裂隙,它们对降水入渗有着很大的贡献,应用有限单元法分别模拟了有裂隙和无裂隙时斜坡体内瞬态渗流场的变化,并用Bishop法对不同埋深滑动面的稳定性做了计算分析。模拟结果表明：考虑裂隙时的计算结果与宏观观察结果更一致,在评价降雨入渗对斜坡稳定性的影响时,一定要充分考虑裂隙的存在,只有雨强大于一个临界值时才会有充足的降水通过裂隙渗入到斜坡深部,裂隙的影响才显著地表现出来。     

降雨条件下道路边坡地下水渗流分析

降雨是影响道路边坡稳定的主要因素之一,根据岩土饱和-非饱和渗流理论,考虑降雨入渗的影响,利用有限元方法,对强降雨条件下公路边坡地下水渗流场动态进行了数值模拟,得到了边坡地下水压力水头、总水头变化、流速的变化规律,为道路边坡的稳定性分析和滑坡预测提供重要的分析数据。     

江西省滑坡与降雨的关系研究

对江西全省1973 年~2002 年间1 158个降雨型滑坡,从考虑滑坡所处地层岩性条件和坡向因素的角度,分析了江西省降雨型滑坡发生的概率与降雨的关系。从坡向因素角度分析,江西省有64 %的滑坡发生于阳坡,但降雨对于不同坡向的滑坡影响近乎相同,只是阴坡所需激发雨量和有效临界雨量较阳坡稍大3 %。6 d累计降雨量、14 d有效降雨量(有效降雨系数为0.82)、3 d累计降雨量和9 d累计降雨量分别是变质岩、岩浆岩、碳酸岩和碎屑岩类地层中发育的滑坡所对应的最相关的降雨因子。各岩类地层中发育的滑坡有80 %发生于降雨当日;岩浆岩、变质岩和碎屑岩类滑坡约12 %～14 %滞后于降雨发生,碳酸岩类滑坡有22 %滞后于降雨发生。滞后时间多为1～3 d,其中碳酸岩类滑坡滞后时间相对较短。这与降雨对不同滑体物质成分的渗透性能、岩土体强度弱化程度和速度等有关。     

Contribution of cross time-frequency analysis in assessment of possible relationships between large-scale climatic fluctuations and rainfall of northern central Algeria

This paper is proposed for the investigation of possible relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and rainfall of Sebaou river watershed (Northern central Algeria), covering a period of 39 years at monthly scale. Several time and scale-based methods were used: correlation and spectral analysis (CSA), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA), cross wavelet analysis (XWT), wavelet coherence transform (WCT) and cross multiresolution wavelet analysis (CMRWA). The rainfall analysis by CSA and CWT has been clearly demonstrating the dominance of 1 year and 1–3-year modes, which they explain 30 to 51% and 25 to 28% of the variance respectively. However, the indices have shown that inter-annual fluctuations up to long-term explain between 60 and 90%. CWT and MRWA indicated significant fluctuations materialising a dry period more marked between the 1980s and 1990s with strong trend towards drier conditions starting from the 1980s, explained by the decadal components D7 and the approximation A7. In addition to the annual component, the XWT spectrums reveal strong coefficients for the SOI between 1992–2005 and 1986–2000 for the modes of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years respectively and less intense for NAO. The WCT between NAO and rainfall indicated the most significant relationship for 1 year, 1–3 years and 3–5 years approximately from the early 1980s corresponding to the dry period. However, the SOI affects rainfall only locally and with significant values more or less localised in the time-frequency space between MO, WeMO and rainfall, but this influence could be significant for low-frequency events. CWMRA shows that the components of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years are the most effective to represent climate index-rainfall significant relationships, where change in Daubechies wavelet properties can improve the correlation across the scales. Furthermore, has indicated that the short-term processes dominate the relationship index-rainfall, which masks the long-term phenomena whose influence can sometimes be very distant. As such, the rainfall variability of the study area has shown fairly significant links, at least locally with large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena.     

降雨入渗条件下自嵌式挡土墙倒塌机理分析

某高校自嵌式挡土墙在暴雨入渗后多处发生坍塌,破坏形式主要表现为与挡土砌块相连的土工格栅被拉断,自嵌式挡土砌块及临近土体局部坍塌,但挡土墙后土体基本保持稳定。基于饱和-非饱和土渗流理论,分析降雨入渗情况下墙后土负孔隙水压力的分布,基于Fredlund双变量强度准则采用极限平衡法计算挡土墙稳定,结果表明:降雨入渗后回填土区域负孔隙水压力明显降低且分布较均匀,整体稳定满足要求。为分析局部坍塌原因,现场取样试验得出降雨前后墙后土体总应力强度进行有限元分析,结果表明:砌筑过程中土工格栅在自嵌式挡土砌块与砾石交界处会产生弯折,降雨入渗对土体的软化增大了格栅弯折程度及内力,在弯折段土工格栅处于复合受力状态,复合受力状态下土工格栅的抗拉强度远小于其极限抗拉强度,是导致与挡土砌块相连处格栅被拉断及临近土体局部坍塌的主要原因,设计时应特别引起重视。     

强降雨条件下土质边坡瞬态稳定性分析

基于实际降雨气象资料,设计了单峰降雨和8个不同时间间隔的双峰降雨计算方案,利用非饱和土力学理论,对边坡的瞬态稳定性进行了计算和分析,研究了水分在坡体内的运移对边坡稳定性的时间空间影响效应,同时考察了降雨入渗造成的土性渗透特性的改变。分析发现：一次降雨的影响历时约12 d,降雨后约0.5 d该类土质边坡最危险;不同时间间隔的两次降雨对边坡稳定的影响比单峰降雨的最小安全系数滞后约0.3 d～0.8 d,影响历时基本保持不变;土体物理力学性质、边坡最危险滑动面及其对应的安全系数随水分在坡体内渗透运移而变化。     

Earth Science Education in Sudan

This paper describes Earth Science Education in Sudan, with particular emphasis on the University of Khartoum. The first geological department in Sudan was founded in 1958 in the University of Khartoum. In the 1980s, six more geological departments have been added in the newer universities. The types of courses offered include Diploma, B.Sc. (General), B.Sc. (Honours), M.Sc. and Ph.D. The Geology programmes are strongly supported by field work training and mapping. Final-year students follow specialised training in one of the following topics: hydrogeology, geophysics, economic geology, sedimentology and engineering geology. A graduation report, written in the final year, represents 30–40% of the total marks. The final assessment and grading are decided with the help of internal and external examiners.Entry into the Geology programmes is based on merit and performance. The number of students who graduate with Honours and become geologists is between 20% to 40% of the initial intake at the beginning of the second year. Employment opportunities are limited and are found mainly in the Government's geological offices, the universities and research centres, and private companies. The Department of Geology at the University of Khartoum has long-standing internal and external links with outside partners. This has been manifested in the training of staff members, the donation of teaching materials and laboratory facilities. The chief problems currently facing Earth Science Education in Sudan are underfunding, poor equipment, laboratory facilities and logistics. Other problems include a shortage of staff, absence of research, lack of supervision and emigration of staff members.Urgent measures are needed to assess and evaluate the status of Earth Science Education in terms of objectives, needs and difficulties encountered. Earth Science Education is expected to contribute significantly to the exploitation of mineral resources and socio-economic development in the Sudan.     

Petrographic of Northwestern Sudan

The sedimentology of the Northwestern Sudan consists of lower, middle and upper cycles. The lower and upper cycles are composed of intercalated fluvial and shallow marine facies, whereas the middle cycle consists entirely of fluvial and glaciofluvial facies. The petrographic analysis shows that the lower and upper cydes consist of quartz and lithic arenite sandstones, whereas the middle cycle consists of arkosic and lithic arenite sandstones. The lower and upper cycle sandstones reflect derivation mainly from recycled orogens with minor contribution from craton interior provenances. However, the middle cycle sandstones indicate derivation from basement uplift, transitional and mainly recycled orogens provenances.     

降雨条件下大型滑坡体渗流稳定性分析

西南高山峡谷地区,大型滑坡体分布广泛,降雨作用下极易产生失稳。古水水电站争岗特大型滑坡堆积体方量高达4 750×104 m3,存在多处厚度超过50 m 的超深层滑坡。2008年强降雨导致滑体变形再次启动并加剧,依据野外勘测,首先对地质结构和水文条件进行了分析,基于此对降雨入渗机制和稳定性现状开展了定性评价,认为降雨引起了滑体材料强度降低,整体处于沿贯通底滑面蠕滑变形的状态,须开挖加固治理。其次,运用饱和非饱和渗流理论,对降雨条件下滑体开挖治理前、后渗流特性进行了定量研究,揭示了入渗引起滑动变形的动态机制,并对稳定性和治理措施进行了评价,提出了有效的排水措施。结果显示,入渗引起土体饱和,形成浸润线并出现滞水现象;治理前滑体局部和滑带处滞水严重,雨停4 d后,滞水层厚度最高达6 m,此时稳定性最差;治理后滞水层明显减小,稳定性显著提升。其结果真实地反映了滑体稳定性现状与规律,与现场勘查相吻合。治理措施亦有显著效果,依据滞水层分布位置,提出相关排水措施,更有利于保持其稳定性。研究成果可为类似工程问题提供有意义的参考。     

Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in June 2003, a number of new landslides have occurred and existing landslides have been made worse. The 1,260 × 10⁴ m³ Baishuihe landslide, located at 56 km west of the Three Gorges Dam, began to deform more noticeably after the first impoundment in early July 2003. The sliding of the two blocks comprising the landslide, one an active block and the other a relatively stable block, became apparent after approximately 5 years of monitoring. Field recordings show that the landslide displacement is affected by the combined effects of the rainfall and water level in the reservoir. These effects have been investigated in the present paper, including the deformation characteristics (movement pattern, direction, displacement and velocity) earmarking the temporal evolution of the active block. Based on a practical creep model of a large rock slide, alert velocity thresholds for pre-alert, alert and emergency phases have been computed corresponding to the imminence of failure. The alert velocity thresholds are being proposed to be included as a part of an early-warning system of an emergency plan drawn up to minimize the adverse impact in the event of landslide failure. The emergency plan is intended to be implemented as a risk management tool by the relevant authorities of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the near future.