Sensitivity of acoustic propagation to uncertainties in the marine environment as characterized by various rapid environmental assessment methods

Accurate sonar performance prediction modelling depends on a good knowledge of the local environment, including bathymetry, oceanography and seabed properties. The function of rapid environmental assessment (REA) is to obtain relevant environmental data in a tactically relevant time frame, with REA methods categorized by the nature and immediacy of their application, from historical databases through remotely sensed data to in situ acquisition. However, each REA approach is subject to its own set of uncertainties, which are in turn transferred to uncertainty in sonar performance prediction. An approach to quantify and manage this uncertainty has been developed through the definition of sensitivity metrics and Monte Carlo simulations of acoustic propagation using multiple realizations of the marine environment. This approach can be simplified by using a linearized two-point sensitivity measure based on the statistics of the environmental parameters used by acoustic propagation models. The statistical properties of the environmental parameters may be obtained from compilations of historical data, forecast conditions or in situ measurements. During a field trial off the coast of Nova Scotia, a set of environmental data, including oceanographic and geoacoustic parameters, were collected together with acoustic transmission loss data. At the same time, several numerical models to forecast the oceanographic conditions were run for the area, including 5- and 1-day forecasts as well as nowcasts. Data from the model runs are compared to each other and to in situ environmental sampling, and estimates of the environmental uncertainties are calculated. The forecast and in situ data are used with historical geoacoustic databases and geoacoustic parameters collected using REA techniques, respectively, to perform acoustic transmission loss predictions, which are then compared to measured transmission loss. The progression of uncertainties in the marine environment, within and between different REA categories, and the consequences on acoustic propagation are examined.     

海洋地球物理研究与海底探测声学技术的发展

海洋地球物理以物理学的思维与方法研究占地球三分之二面积的海洋系统.20世纪地球科学迅猛发展,它的重大进展是海底扩张说与板块构造说的出现和海底大洋的发现,以及前者所引发的地球科学思想革命,从固定论向活动论的思维转变.海底研究对于20世纪地球科学发展的贡献极为巨大,而海洋地球物理是推动海底科学研究的重要原动力.海洋地球物理在20世纪地球科学的发展中有过辉煌的成就,占有十分重要的地位;在新的21世纪里,海洋地球物理研究仍然保持着前沿科学的地位,继续推动着地球科学的进展.目前的海底探测主要还是依赖于声学探测技术.水下声学定位技术是实现水下探测系统精确定位和海底高精度探测的基础.传统性的海洋地震探测技术是研究海底构造与海洋岩石圈深部结构和寻找海底矿产的主力技术,它近年来无论在海上采集技术还是数据处理技术方面都发展得很快.多波束测深、侧扫声呐测图和海底地层剖面测量等则是近数十年快速发展起来探测海底浅部结构信息的技术.这些技术已经在当代海底科学研究、海底资源勘查、海洋工程和海洋开发,以及海洋军事活动等方面发挥出极其重要的作用.     

Ocean feature models – their use and effectiveness in ocean acoustic forecasting

The aim of this paper is to test the effectiveness of feature models in ocean acoustic forecasting. Feature models are simple mathematical representations of the horizontal and vertical structures of ocean features (such as fronts and eddies), and have been used primarily for assimilating new observations into forecasts and for compressing data. In this paper we describe the results of experiments in which the models have been tested in acoustic terms in eddy and frontal environments in the Iceland Faeroes region. Propagation-loss values were obtained with a 2D parabolic-equation (PE) model, for the observed fields, and compared to PE results from the corresponding feature models and horizontally uniform (range-independent) fields. The feature models were found to represent the smoothed observed propagation-loss field to within an rms error of 5 dB for the eddy and 7 dB for the front, compared to 10–15-dB rms errors obtained with the range-independent field. Some of the errors in the feature-model propagation loss were found to be due to high-amplitude oceanographic noise in the field. The main conclusion is that the feature models represent the main acoustic properties of the ocean but do not show the significant effects of small-scale internal waves and fine-structure. It is recommended that feature models be used in conjunction with stochastic models of the internal waves, to represent the complete environmental variability.     

Decision support using the Multistatic Tactical Planning Aid (MSTPA)

The Multistatic Tactical Planning Aid (MSTPA) is a tool currently in development at NATO Undersea Research Centre which may be used to model the performance of a given multistatic sensor network in terms of the probability of detection of a submarine, the ability to hold a track and whether such a track could be correctly classified as such. The tool therefore considers the entire chain of events from an initial calculation of signal excess, the generation of a contact considering localisation errors, followed by the subsequent tracking and classification process. In its current form, the tool may be used to plan a particular multistatic scenario through operational analysis of many Monte Carlo simulations. The future development of MSTPA will transition towards a real-time decision support tool to assist operators and planners at sea. This study introduces a number of generic decision support techniques which may be wrapped around the MSTPA tool. The acoustic performance metric that will drive decisions will of course be subject to uncertainty relating to environmental measurements and extrapolations. The effect of this uncertainty on acoustic performance is examined here. Future studies will consider the sensitivity of the eventual decision—in terms of optimum sensor positions—to the acoustic uncertainty.     

南极和格陵兰岛GPS连续台站背景噪声时空特性

基于GPS观测数据获取的陆地垂向运动对研究现今两极区域的冰川质量变化具有重要的科学意义.受地表环境负荷对GPS时间序列中背景噪声空间异质性的影响, 在利用GPS时间序列获取垂向速度场时, 估计结果存在较大不确定度.本文针对南极和格陵兰岛区域的GPS连续观测时间序列中背景噪声的空间特性对速度场及其不确定度的影响问题, 利用地表环境负荷模型(包括大气、非潮汐海洋和水文负荷)和重力卫星GRACE/GRACE-FO观测数据反演的地表弹性形变对GPS时间序列进行了改正.通过对改正前后的数据进行背景噪声特性分析, 揭示出修正环境负荷形变能够有效降低极区GPS时间序列背景噪声幅度, 但是大气和非潮汐海洋负荷改正造成了大多数台站背景噪声谱指数的减小, 南极和格陵兰岛分别约为其GPS台站总数的46.1%和84.6%, 直接导致了对GPS速度不确定度估计的改善效果不明显.对背景噪声空间异质性的研究结果表明, 极区台站的背景噪声参数主要表现为随纬度变化的空间特性.

     

A bottom-up methodology for integrating underwater video and acoustic mapping for seafloor substrate classification

A method that links acoustic mapping data to underwater video observations of seafloor substrate is described for use in defining fish habitat. Three study areas in the Aleutian Islands were acoustically mapped using sidescan and multibeam sonar. The sidescan sonar data were used to compute average reflectivity (hardness) and seafloor complexity. The multibeam depth data were used to determine local slope, rugosity (seafloor roughness) and relative height. Underwater video was collected from three to four transects in each of the three study areas. The underwater video was used to classify the seafloor into nine observed primary and secondary substrate classes. A statistical relationship between the observed (video) and the remotely sensed (acoustic) seafloor characteristics was estimated using a classification tree. The best classification tree utilized rugosity, reflectivity and complexity data and produced misclassification rates of less than 25% overall. Mean grain size of sediment samples was not strongly related to the acoustic data. Error rates were highest for those substrate classes with the smallest number of data points. The results highlight the need for adequate sample sizes and coverage of all potential substrate types when groundtruthing acoustic maps.     

Interpreting the sea surface temperature warming trend in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Previous studies have demonstrated that the low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (YECS) is linked to large-scale climate variability, but explanations on the mechanisms vary. This study examines the low-frequency variability and trends of some atmospheric and oceanic variables to discuss their different effects on the YECS warming. The increasing temperature trend is also observed at a hydrographic section transecting the Kuroshio. The increasing rate of ocean temperature decreases with depth, which might result in an increase in vertical stratification and a decrease in vertical mixing, and thus plays a positive role on the YECS warming. The surface net heat flux (downward positive) displays a decreasing trend, which is possibly a result of the YECS warming, and, in turn, inhibits it. Wind speeds show different trends in different datasets, such that its role in the YECS warming is uncertain. The trends in wind stress divergence and curl have large uncertainties, so their effects on SST warming are still unclear. The Kuroshio heat transport calculated in this study, displays no significantly increasing trend, so is an unlikely explanation for the SST warming. Limited by sparse ocean observations, sophisticated assimilative climate models are still needed to unravel the mechanisms behind the YECS warming.     

Sonar Studies of Submarine Mass Wasting and Volcanic structures off Savaii Island, Samoa

—Sidescan sonar observations show that mass wasting plays an important role in the geologic development of the Savaii Island edifice. Observations on the south and west flanks indicate that debris movement on the submarine slopes between rift zones is characterized by large sheets of unchannelized debris. Farther downslope these sheets have slumped into folded although still relatively coherent slump sheets. Closer to the rift zones, more chaotic slumps are found. The presence of large detached landslide blocks, without obvious upslope headwall scarps, suggests that earlier slumps are covered by subsequent veneers of debris moving downslope.¶In contrast, on Stearns Bank west of the island of Savaii most of the features are of constructional origin, formed during the building of this volcanic edifice of unknown age. Two prominentsubmarine platforms are evident, the shallower one with a summit cone. Sea cliffs and subdued terraces record platforms cut by sea-level oscillations late in the history of the volcanic edifice. Fractures and fissures are present on the bank, however there is little evidence of landslides in this area. The absence of landslides may reflect differing ages of the bank and the island or the edifice could have remained submarine during its construction with few or no subaerially derived ashes and clays present to facilitate mass wasting.¶We conclude that mass wasting is an important influence on the evolution of the Savaii volcanic edifice. It appears that sediment and debris cover most of the slope outside the submarine rift zones. The sonar images indicate that mass wasting is a common process in the submarine environment. Unlike the giant landslides documented by GLORIA imagery around the Hawaiian Islands, the southern margin of Samoa is characterized by numerous small slumps and slides. Although we have little information at present regarding the recurrence interval for submarine landslides, their ubiquitous presence in these sidescan sonar records indicates that they are an important component of the geologic record of the Samoan Islands.     

基于含气泡液体声波方程的海底冷泉数值模拟

海底冷泉羽状流与海底天然气水合物的分布密切相关,对水合物稳定带的边界具有指示作用,是未来能源勘探的重要领域.研究海底冷泉羽状流的地震响应特征,对确定天然气水合物的储集区域及成藏环境等均有重要意义.当前获得海底冷泉羽状流的地震响应主要通过数值模拟进行,然而该过程所依据的含气泡介质声速模型及随机介质理论不能完整描述海底冷泉的物理性质,采用的声波方程也不适用于高频地震波数值模拟.为了准确地实现海底冷泉羽状流地震波数值模拟,精确分析其地震响应特征,本文提出利用Keller-Miksis气泡振动模型来描述气泡在声波作用下的运动状态,同时考虑气泡间的相互作用,建立海底冷泉气泡模型.在此基础上,本文创新性地采用含气泡液体声波方程进行海底冷泉高频地震波数值模拟.数值模拟结果表明,本文提出的方法能够实现海底冷泉羽状流地震响应的高精度数值模拟.

     

Acoustic seabed segmentation from direct statistical clustering of entire multibeam sonar backscatter curves

A fast, simple method is presented to obtain acoustic seabed segmentation from multibeam sonar backscatter data, for situations where processed backscatter curves are already available. Unsupervised statistical clustering is used to classify multibeam sonar backscatter curves in their entirety, with the curves essentially treated as geometrical entities. High variability in the backscatter curves is removed by along-track averaging prior to clustering, and no further preprocessing is required. The statistical clustering method is demonstrated with RESON 8125 multibeam sonar data obtained in two bathymetrically complex environments. These are a sandwave field in Keppel Bay, Queensland, and an area of inter-island sand, reef, seagrass, and rhodolith beds in Esperance Bay, Western Australia. The resulting acoustic charts are visually compelling. They exhibit high spatial coherence, are largely artifact free, and provide spatial context to comparatively sparse grab samples with relatively little effort. Since the backscatter curve is an intrinsic property of the seafloor, the mappings form standalone charts of seafloor acoustic properties. In themselves they do not need ground truthing. Conceptually, use of the full angular backscatter curve should form the primary means of obtaining acoustic seabed segmentation. However, this is dependent on the scale and configuration of seabed backscatter features compared to the dimensions of the averaged swathe used to obtain reliable realisations of the backscatter curve.     

基于含气泡液体声波方程的海底冷泉数值模拟

海底冷泉羽状流与海底天然气水合物的分布密切相关,对水合物稳定带的边界具有指示作用,是未来能源勘探的重要领域.研究海底冷泉羽状流的地震响应特征,对确定天然气水合物的储集区域及成藏环境等均有重要意义.当前获得海底冷泉羽状流的地震响应主要通过数值模拟进行,然而该过程所依据的含气泡介质声速模型及随机介质理论不能完整描述海底冷泉的物理性质,采用的声波方程也不适用于高频地震波数值模拟.为了准确地实现海底冷泉羽状流地震波数值模拟,精确分析其地震响应特征,本文提出利用Keller-Miksis气泡振动模型来描述气泡在声波作用下的运动状态,同时考虑气泡间的相互作用,建立海底冷泉气泡模型.在此基础上,本文创新性地采用含气泡液体声波方程进行海底冷泉高频地震波数值模拟.数值模拟结果表明,本文提出的方法能够实现海底冷泉羽状流地震响应的高精度数值模拟.     

Sea-level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends

Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0·3 and 3 mm yr^?1, with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sea-level data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by ～ 1 m, with a ‘best-guess’ value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example, Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica, because in a warmer world, precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However, the impacts of attritional processes, such as thinning of the ice shelves, have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore, not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections, careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally, because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates, wave climates and tidal regimes, it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise), rather than a single global mean sea-level trend, that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR.     

Internal Variability Of The North Atlantic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

A new approach to understand the physical processes that govern internal variability of the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation is outlined and current methods and results are reviewed. In this approach, based on the theory of dynamical systems, internal variability is viewed as arising through successive transitions when parameters are changed. The potential of the approach is demonstrated through analysesof solutions of intermediate complexity models of the wind-driven ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. In a quasi-geostrophic modelfor the flow in a rectangular basin with idealized wind forcing, the basic transitions are already found and physical mechanisms at work can be described in detail. Qualitatively, this transition behavior remains robust in more realistic models, having shallow water dynamics, realistic wind forcingand continental geometry, although patterns and time scales changethrough the model hierarchy. The relevance of the results is discussed inrelation to those of observations and of ocean general circulation models.     

Simulating the migration of drifters deployed in the Bay of Biscay, during the Prestige crisis

A main conclusion following the oil spill from the Prestige tanker was that improvements in ocean circulation models were necessary; this was in order to predict, more accurately, the trajectories followed by the oil slicks and hence assist in fight against oil pollution operations. In this contribution, the results of the validation of a semi-empirical ocean circulation model, parameterised for the Bay of Biscay and forced with operational oceano-meteorological remote sensing observations, are shown. The model results have been validated with observations from drifting buoys, deployed in the Bay of Biscay during the crisis. The results show that the model explains a relatively large percentage of the current variability. The comparisons between the real and the estimated drifter trajectories indicate that for 3, 5 and 7 day-long trajectories, the drifter position is estimated with errors of approximately 23, 35 and 46km, respectively. The model reproduces relatively well the trajectory followed by the drifter with the shortest period (23 days).     

利用GRACE卫星重力资料解算气候驱动的地表周年垂直形变

卫星重力和GPS测量技术可以监测地表流体(大气、海洋和陆地水)质量季节性迁移引起的地表周年形变;与陆地水等地表流体模型综合模拟的地表形变相比,卫星重力的形变监测结果避免了模型的精度不确定性带来的误差.本文利用前60阶GRACE卫星时变重力资料和“去相关”、组合滤波两类滤波方法分别解算了中国及邻区的地表季节性垂直形变,并与区内42个GPS台站上观测到的季节性信号进行了比较,发现采用“去相关”滤波方法处理后的结果优于采用组合滤波处理后的结果.文中采用“去相关”滤波方法,GRACE解算的周年垂直形变的振幅、相位和GPS结果总体上一致;少数站上GRACE和GPS得到的振幅或相位相差较大,主要因素可能与GPS解算策略、GPS观测资料的连续性或局部大气、水文过程等地球物理因素有关.在中国及邻区的陆地上GRACE解算的周年垂直形变的振幅最小值出现在TASH台站东南,约1×10-3 m;最大值出现在恒河—澜沧江流域,可达10×10-3 m.文中的结果证实了在中国及邻区可以用GRACE卫星重力这种新手段监测大尺度的地表周年垂直形变.     

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in the Large-Scale Response of the Water Cycle

Despite their obvious environmental, societal and economic importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations in the global water cycle is still unsatisfactory. Uncertainties in hydrological predictions from the current generation of models pose a serious challenge to the reliability of forecasts and projections across time and space scales. This paper provides an overview of the current issues and challenges in modelling various aspects of the Earth’s hydrological cycle. These include: the global water budget and water conservation, the role of model resolution and parametrisation of precipitation-generating processes on the representation of the global and regional hydrological cycle, representation of clouds and microphysical processes, rainfall variability, the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on rainfall patterns and their variability, monsoon processes and teleconnections, and ocean and cryosphere modelling. We conclude that continued collaborative activity in the areas of model development across timescales, process studies and climate change studies will provide better understanding of how and why the hydrological cycle may change, and better estimation of uncertainty in model projections of changes in the global water cycle.     

不同海潮模型对中国大陆构造环境监测网络GNSS数据解算的影响

选取2018年中国大陆构造环境监测网络GNSS基准站及中国周边IGS站数据,基于CSR4、FES2004、GOT00、NAO99b等海潮负荷改正模型,采用单一变量的解算方式,分析不同海潮模型对我国GNSS基准站基线、三维坐标、时间序列等造成的影响。结果表明：利用不同海潮模型解算基线精度,水平方向相差不大于1 mm,垂向相差不大于3 mm;各测站NEU坐标精度均在毫米级以下,以耿马站时间序列为例,与其他模型相比,基于FES2004模型解算的各向偏差趋势波动较弱,其年序列图的精度及连续性、稳定性更佳。简言之,利用FES2004海潮模型解算GNSS站点位置,效果较好。     

Biogeochemical processes controlling methane in gassy coastal sediments—Part 2: groundwater flow control of acoustic turbidity in Eckernförde Bay Sediments

To understand the origin of the methane distributions in sediments of Eckernförde Bay, three sites were sampled in May 1994 for determination of methane, sulfate and chloride concentrations in the sediment porewaters. In much of the Bay, bubbles of biogenic methane gas within the sediments lead to widespread ‘acoustic turbidity’ seen in acoustic surveys, masking the sedimentary structure below the gassy horizon. Acoustic windows, where the gas does not appear to be present, occur in several locations in the Bay, often surrounded by acoustically turbid sediments. Pockmarks, shallow depressions in the sediment, are also found in Bay sediments and may show acoustic turbidity at even shallower depths below the interface than surrounding sediments. One site of each type was sampled in this study. The site probably representative of much of the bay below 20 m water depth, revealed methane saturated conditions by about 75 cm depth below the interface, confirming inferences from acoustic scattering data that free gas was present in the sediment. Above this, the methane concentration profile was concave-upward, indicative of methane oxidation in the overlying, sulfate-reducing sediments. These porewaters showed a slightly decreasing chlorinity with depth. At an acoustic window site, methane concentrations rose to a maximum at about 125 cm depth, but did not reach saturation. Below this depth they decreased in a concave-down pattern. Chloride concentrations decreased markedly with depth, indicative of vertical freshwater flow from below. The third site was a pockmark exhibiting very shallow acoustic turbidity at about 25 cm depth. Here methane concentrations rose to exceed saturation within 25 cm depth below the interface and the porewaters became almost fresh by 1.5 m depth, indicative of a stronger flow of freshwater from below. These groundwater flows have competing effects on the methane inventory. They help exclude sulfate from the sediment, allowing the earlier/shallower onset of methanogenesis, but they also aid loss of methane through advection. A diagenetic model that couples the biogeochemistry of sulfate and methane is used to explain the presence or absence of methane gas in these sediments in relation to the flow rate of fresh groundwater from below. Model results indicate that acoustic windows within otherwise acoustically turbid sediments of the bay are likely due to relatively higher rates of vertical advection of fresh groundwater. The gassy pockmark, however, with an even higher vertical advection rate, seems to require the input of additional reactive organic carbon to explain its vertical methane distribution.     

1969年渤海Ms7.4地震发震断层的声学探测

发生于1969年的渤海M_s7.4地震是渤海海域惟一一个主震被现代仪器记录的大地震,对其发震断层的讨论争议颇多.2005~2008年,我们在主震震区进行了3个航次的高分辨率声学探测,获得了包括浅层单道地震、侧扫声纳以及CHIRP剖面等在内的数百公里综合地球物理观测资料.本文报道了对上述声学资料的研究结果.研究表明,在震区海底之下2~3 m发现了一条走向NE30°、长20 km、宽约3 km的微型凹陷带,地质时代为5000 a B.P.,沉积面的最大下凹幅度为1.5 m;在空间位置上微型凹陷带与BZ28断裂、余震活动分布基本一致,因此,微型凹陷带是BZ28断裂活动的结果,而A层底界的下凹变形则是1969年渤海7.4级地震活动的结果, BZ28断裂是该地震的发震断层.BZ28断裂呈NE30°走向,是郯庐断裂带的次级断裂,浅层地震剖面揭示其最新活动时间为全新世中晚期,根据地质时代以及断层的垂向位移量,计算得到BZ28断裂晚更新世以来的垂向活动速率约为0.05 mm/a,全新世为0.3 mm/a,具有活动强度增加的趋势.