基于水热平衡模型的青海湖水位变化趋势预测

近几十年来,随着气候干暖化,以青海湖为代表的我国内陆湖泊水位持续下降,生态环境问题日益突出,备受世人关注.运用改进的水热平衡模型预测了2050年以前青海湖逐年的湖面蒸发量,并运用多元线性回归的方法估算出流域未来径流量的变化,最终通过水量平衡的方式对2050年以前青海湖水位的变化趋势进行了定量预测.预测表明未来几十年内,青海湖水位会经历先相对稳定再继续下降的过程,2020年以前青海湖水位会相对稳定在3192.7m,之后会继续下降,到2050年约下降到3191.22m,总体上2010-2050年青海湖水位下降趋势将有所缓和.     

晚第四纪青海湖演化研究析视与讨论

本文根据钻孔及湖周湖泊沉积露头的分析,重建了晚第四纪以来青海湖湖面波动的历史,并结合近年有关青海湖演变的文献,评述和讨论了造成青海湖高湖面和低湖面的原因,最后预测了青海湖近代萎缩的未来趋势。     

青海湖水量平衡分析与水资源优化配置研究

在充分收集有关资料的基础上研究青海湖1959-2000年间降水径流蒸发湖泊水位地下水补给量的动态变化建立水量平衡分析方程.青海湖水位在波动中持续下降42年来年平均水位累计下降了 3.32 m平均每年下降了0.079 m近年来下降的幅度减小. 同时青海湖储水量不断减少而湖区降水呈增加的趋势河川径流量地下水的入湖补给量 蒸发量呈现下降的趋势. 根据青海湖水平衡分析计算结果预测2010年青海湖流域耗水量将达1.27108m3为维护生态平衡和社会经济持续发展需要跨流域调水量引大济湖4.1108m3.     

2004年以来青海湖快速扩张对人居设施与草地的潜在影响

作为我国最大的内陆咸水湖,青海湖是青藏高原东北部重要水汽源,在维持区域生态环境及半干旱生态系统功能方面发挥着重要作用.近年来,青海湖水位迅速上升,但是湖泊扩张对周边人居设施与草地的影响尚未得到广泛关注和报道.基于1995-2019年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、Hydroweb多源测高同化水位数据、SRTM-1 DEM数据等,本研究以青海湖近年来增长速率情景开展湖泊快速扩张对周边人居设施(道路、居民点)与草地影响和潜在威胁的定量研究.结果表明:1995-2004年期间青海湖处于萎缩态势,2004年水位和面积出现最小值,之后,青海湖进入稳定扩张期.2004-2019年期间,青海湖水位累计上涨3.27 m,年均增长率约为0.22 m/a;相应地,青海湖水量增长了14.25 km³,年均增长率为0.95 km³/a.湖泊扩张模拟结果显示,若青海湖水量以当前速率增长,水位将在2070年前后达到3207 m(相对2019年约10 m的水位涨幅),届时将会淹没178个居民点、长度约为1286.91 km的道路以及2042.22 km²的植被,其中预测的高风险区域主要为切吉乡、泉吉乡和金滩乡.该研究有望为青海湖快速扩张对当地居民的影响和潜在威胁提供重要的科学参考,并在气候变化背景下为制定缓解气候变化风险的预案提供科学依据.     

湖泊沉积物14C年龄硬水效应校正初探——以青海湖为例

在深入探讨湖泊硬水效应成因和变化规律的基础上,借鉴海洋碳库效应校正方法,首次利用湖水和大气14C放射性比度之间关系的方法对青海湖沉积物14C年龄进行硬水效应校正,并重建了青海湖硬水效应在过去8 ka中的变化过程.笔者认为,青海湖表层沉积物有机质14C年龄不老于1549 aBP,青海湖硬水效应在7000-1000 aBP期间是逐渐增强的.     

近20年青海湖湖水面积变化遥感

采用NOAA/AVHRR资料,对青海湖湖面进行水体判识,并利用线性混合模式对混合象元进行处理,定量估算了近20年青海湖湖水面积并分析了变化趋势,表明近20年青海湖湖水面积在不断减小,每年减少约4km2,并且青海湖干涸部分主要在其北部.进一步采用主成分分析和回归分析方法对青海湖地区降水、气温和蒸发量做了初步气候分析,表明青海湖地区降水减少、气温升高、蒸发量增加是青海湖湖水面积逐年减少的主要原因.     

地震预测的评估方法

要研究地震预测的可能性,客观评估预测结果必不可少。鲜少发生的大地震和小地震的发生概率大相径庭,预测成功时的评估也大不相同。地震活动程度中的地域差也与评估相关。首先,需要确立适合各地域的基于以往经验的地震活动的基准预测。作为评估概率预测成绩的手段,信息增益比较合理。当新的预测模型被提出时,对比基准模型的预测,即可评估预测能力是否提高及其提高的程度。赤池信息量准则AIC及ABIC是仅仅使用现有的数据预先对提议模型将来预测准确度进行推测并给出评估分数是有用的。由于预测的演算方法和经验尚处于发展完善过程中,有时难以给出概率的数值预测。因此,大多数都属于警告型预测(二值预测)。本文将进一步就评估警告型地震预测的图示法和赌局计分法进行说明。为此,仍然必须设定地震的大小程度和活动度的基准概率(行情)的经验值。也就是在基于行情的公平的赌局中,比较警告型预测的成功或失败结果的得失分数的评估方法。作为经验基准概率,将古登堡-里克特关系(指数分布)当作地震大小的出现频度。时间和空间一样的地震发生模型(平稳泊松过程)可以考虑。然而,更为现实地将相应地震活动性空间不一致的泊松过程和地震的连锁过程等设定为基准模型,则现今的警告型预测要得到比基准预测更好的评估结果将变得更难。     

中国十大湖泊

正青海湖青海湖又名"措温布",即藏语"青色的海"之意,位于青海省西北部的青海湖盆地内,周长360公里,面积4400平方公里,湖面海拔为3260米,既是中国最大的内陆湖泊,也是中国最大的咸水湖。由祁连山的大通山、日月山与青海南山之间的断层陷落形成。鄱阳湖鄱阳湖,古称彭蠡、彭蠡泽、彭泽,地处江西省的北部,长江中下游南岸,为长江流域的重要一个过水性、吞吐型、季节性的浅水湖泊。湖区面积,在平水位     

EY60回声探测仪在青海湖鱼类资源量评估中的应用

2006年8月16-18日通过使用回声探测仪(Simrad公司EY60型,200kHz换能器)对青海湖的鱼类资源进行了探测评估.结果表明:青海湖裸鲤(Gymnocypris przewalski)水平分布具不均匀性,有小型鱼群聚集现象;在不同的设定分区,鱼类密度在0.168-12.8ind./1000m~3之间,均值为1.16 ind./1000m~3;布哈河口鱼类较为密集,密度最大值为12.8ind./1000m~3.初步估算青海湖裸鲤达可捕规格(体长大于20cm)个体数量为6.5×10~7ind.,95%置信度区间为35.6×10~7-118.4×10~7ind.,应用资源密度体积法估算青海湖裸鲤的可捕资源量约为1 5275t.探测实验还证实,EY60回声探测仪在青海湖中进行鱼类资源评估时探测效果良好,分析软件Sonar5可以对鱼类个体自动识别、计数,便于进行鱼类资源量评估.     

青海湖表层底泥中放射性同位素137Cs的来源

青海湖是我国环境研究中的一个热点地区,近年来137Cs计年技术已在这一地区得到广泛的应用.已报道的青海湖沉积物中137Cs垂直分布曲线显示,剖面最表层0-1 cm泥沙的137Cs浓度约60 Bq/kg,大致为峰值浓度的2/3,远超过近年来大气沉降137Cs所应带来的沉积水平为查明青海湖表层底泥中放射性同位素137Cs的来源,深入理解湖泊沉积过程,本文对青海湖沉积剖面的137Cs面积活度与137Cs本底值、湖泊表层底泥的137Cs浓度与入湖河流洪水沉积泥沙开展了比对研究.结果表明核爆期间的大气直接沉降是青海湖东南湖湾表层沉积物中的137Cs主要来源,约占4/5,风沙和入湖径流河沙的间接输入的137Cs仅占1/5而最表层0-1 cm的沉积物中137Cs很可能主要来源于底泥扰动,在这样的情况下,利用沉积岩芯开展青海湖环境研究时,分辨率的选取需要慎重考虑这一因素.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Dissolved Carbohydrate Concentration,Composition, and Bioavailability to Microbial Heterotrophs in Stream Water

Dissolved total carbohydrates (DTCH), dissolved free monosaccharides (DFMS), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), biodegradable DOC (BDOC), and humic substances (HS) were measured in White Clay Creek (WCC), a stream in southeastern Pennsylvania Piedmont, USA. Samples were collected over different seasons and under baseflow and stormflow conditions. DOC concentrations ranged from 1.0 to 12.8 mg/L C with the highest concentrations associated with stormflows. Carbohydrates ranged from 0.42 to 12.4 μM and accounted for 2.9 to 12.7% of the DOC. Humic substances represented the major DOC fraction, accounting for 55 to 72% of the DOC pool under all flow conditions. The humic fraction had a lower carbohydrate content (4.4%) than the non-humic fraction of DOC (7.2%). Stormflow DOC was enriched in carbohydrates relative to baseflow DOC, but the percentage of humic-C changed little. Carbohydrates were primarily present as dissolved polysaccharides (55%), but a significant fraction was bound to humic substances (40%), while a small proportion was present as monosaccharides (5%). The major monosaccharides in stream water, listed in order of decreasing concentration, included glucose, galactose, rhamnose, xylose, arabinose, mannose, and fucose. On average (30.6 ± 7.4)% (n = 44) of the stream water DOC was biodegradable, and carbohydrates accounted for 9.9 to 17.7% of the BDOC.