电力供应系统功能失效分析

本文介绍了电力系统的地震功能评估方法，尤其对电力系统功能潮流分析方法作了深入的探讨，它不仅考虑电力设施在地震作用下的连通性问题，也考虑了供电系统的潮流（包括电压和功率）变化对供电系统的影响问题。从而为供电系统抗震分析，功能评估及灾害预防提供理论基础。     

Seismic stability assessment of an arch dam-foundation system

A seismic stability assessment of arch dam-foundation systems is presented using a comprehensive approach,in which the main factors that significantly influence the seismic response of an arch dam-foundation system are considered.A large scale finite element model with over 1 million degrees of freedom is constructed for the Baihetan arch dam(289 m high),which is under construction in the Southwest of China.In particular,the complicated geological conditions with faults intersecting interlayer shear weakness zones at the dam base and the dam abutment resisting force body is modeled in the analysis.Three performance indices are adopted to assess the seismic stability of the arch dam.The results demonstrate that the opening of the joints of the Baihetan arch dam is small and the water stop installed between the joints would not be torn during a design earthquake.The yielding formed in the interface between the dam and foundation does not reach the grouting curtain that would remain in an elastic state after an earthquake.The yielding zones occurring on the upper portion of the dam faces extend 1/8 thickness of block section into the dam body and thus cantilever blocks need not be concerned with sliding stability.The faults and interlayer shear weakness zones in the near field foundation exhibit severe yielding,and a potential sliding surface is penetrated.Although the factor of safety against sliding of the surface fluctuates with a decreased trend during an earthquake,the minimum instantaneous value reaches 1.02 and is still larger than 1.0.Therefore,a conclusion is drawn that the Baihetan arch dam-foundation system will remain stable under the design earthquake.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Cyprus

In the present study, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was conducted for Cyprus based on several new results: a new comprehensive earthquake catalog, seismic source models based on new research, and new attenuation relationships. Peak ground acceleration distributions obtained for a return period of 475 years for rock conditions indicate high hazard along the southern coastline of Cyprus, where the expected ground motion is between 0.3 and 0.4 g. The rest of the island is characterized by values representing less severe shaking. Results of this study strongly indicate the inadequacy of the Turkish Earthquake Code that is being used in the northern part of the island and the Eurocode 8 that is in effect in the southern part of the island to approximate the uniform hazard spectra developed for the high hazard and moderate hazard regions of the island.     

汶川地震人员伤亡评估

依据2008年5月12日汶川地震人员实际伤亡情况,利用传统的地震人员伤亡评估和作者提出的地震人员伤亡指数和人员伤亡状态函数评价方法,对汶川地震的人员伤亡进行了静态与动态评估。给出了传统评估方法得到的结果,揭示了动态评估方法得到的被压埋人员由初始伤残到被救出时的伤亡状态的动态变化过程的规律。     

Seismic response assessment of a stiff structure

Seismic response of a lightly reinforced stiff shear‐wall structure subjected to ground motions grouped as near‐ or far‐field according to their distance to causative faults is investigated. A model structure that had earlier been studied both experimentally and analytically in the context of a co‐ordinated research project is re‐examined. The structure is a five‐storey lightly reinforced shear‐wall model subjected analytically to 55 ground motion records from firm soil sites. Several response parameters are obtained by linear and non‐linear analyses. Additional analyses are performed to ascertain the validity and range of applicability of current approximate displacement‐based analysis procedures. The procedures considered in this study are found to be inadequate in representing the anticipated response of the structure employed here regardless of the type of excitation, so modifications are suggested for improved results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

漳州市建筑物抗震能力评价

根据漳州市规划区内房屋的调查资料及建筑物的抗震能力分析方法,对漳州市房屋进行了震害预测,并通过漳州市建筑物抗震能力评价分析结果,提出了有针对性的抗震减灾策略,为编制漳州市的抗震防灾规划和制定防灾决策提供了重要的科学依据。     

钢-混凝土组合结构体系抗震可靠性研究

天津市丽苑小区1号楼工程采用了新型的钢-混凝土组合结构体系,该体系由方钢管混凝土柱和钢梁组成的外框架以及混凝土剪力墙、核心筒组成。本文以该工程为研究对象,利用基于分支限界法编制的程序分析了这种新型结构体系的抗震可靠性,得出了若干结论。     

Seismic fragility assessment of concrete gravity dams

Many concrete gravity dams have been in service for over 50 years, and over this period important advances in the methodologies for evaluation of natural phenomena hazards have caused the design‐basis events for these dams to be revised upwards. Older existing dams may fail to meet revised safety criteria and structural rehabilitation to meet such criteria may be costly and difficult. Fragility assessment provides a tool for rational safety evaluation of existing facilities and decision‐making by using a probabilistic framework to model sources of uncertainty that may impact dam performance. This paper presents a methodology for developing fragilities of concrete gravity dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards. The methodology is illustrated using the Bluestone Dam on the New River in West Virginia, which was designed in the late 1930s. The seismic fragility assessment indicated that sliding along the dam–foundation interface is likely if the dam were to be subjected to an earthquake with a magnitude of the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) specified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Moreover, there will likely be tensile cracking at the neck of the dam at this level of seismic excitation. However, loss of control of the reservoir is unlikely. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic hazard assessment in continental Ecuador

A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.     

Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non‐seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce‘survival curves’, depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small‐scale, network and also on a real‐scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity‐upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of transverse load-resisting elements on inelastic earthquake response of eccentric-plan buildings

The accurate evaluation of code torsional provisions for plan-eccentric structures exhibiting inelastic response relies on the adoption of appropriate systems defining both the torsionally balanced (reference) and torsionally unbalanced cases. Whilst a considerable number of analytical studies of this problem have been presented in the literature, inconsistencies have arisen in their conclusions. It is evident from a review of previous studies that one factor contributing significantly to these discrepancies arises in the definition of the structural layout. An issue of particular importance is whether the transverse load-resisting elements oriented perpendicular to the assumed (lateral) direction of earthquake loading should, for purposes of realism, be included in model definitions. Given the diverse approaches in the existing literature, clarification of this issue is required in order to advance the understanding of inelastic torsional response behaviour and to assist the interpretation and comparison of previous studies. This paper aims to provide such clarification, based on analyses of a series of models defined rigorously according to code design provisions. Such models have been subjected to both uni- and bi-directional ground motion input. It is concluded that for the flexible-edge element, accurate estimates of additional ductility demand arising from torsional effects may be obtained from uni-directional models (in which both the transverse elements and the corresponding earthquake component are neglected) only for medium-period to long-period systems. Such estimates may be over-conservative for short-period systems, which constitute a large proportion of systems for which code static torsional provisions are utilized. It is further concluded that models incorporating the transverse elements but analysed under uni-directional lateral loading may underestimate by up to 100% the torsional effects in such systems, but are reasonably accurate for medium- and long-period structures.     

Seismic hazard assessment using intensity point data

The influence of the attenuation model used in seismic hazard assessment in terms of intensity and acceleration is studied. For two sites in central Italy, the catalogue of the actual observed intensities during the last three centuries has been recovered. In the study region, the data collected during a recent seismic sequence give the basis for relating intensity and acceleration. The results show the importance of establishing statistical relationships among the used quantities, based on a representative set of data.     

Seismic fragility assessment of low-rise stone masonry buildings

Many historic buildings in old urban centers in Eastern Canada are made of stone masonry reputed to be highly vulnerable to seismic loads.Seismic risk assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first step in the risk mitigation process to provide adequate planning for retrofit and preservation of historical urban centers.This paper focuses on development of analytical displacement-based fragility curves reflecting the characteristics of existing stone masonry buildings in Eastern Canada.The old historic center of Quebec City has been selected as a typical study area.The standard fragility analysis combines the inelastic spectral displacement,a structure-dependent earthquake intensity measure,and the building damage state correlated to the induced building displacement.The proposed procedure consists of a three-step development process:(1) mechanics-based capacity model,(2) displacement-based damage model and(3) seismic demand model.The damage estimation for a uniform hazard scenario of 2% in 50 years probability of exceedance indicates that slight to moderate damage is the most probable damage experienced by these stone masonry buildings.Comparison is also made with fragility curves implicit in the seismic risk assessment tools Hazus and ELER.Hazus shows the highest probability of the occurrence of no to slight damage,whereas the highest probability of extensive and complete damage is predicted with ELER.This comparison shows the importance of the development of fragility curves specific to the generic construction characteristics in the study area and emphasizes the need for critical use of regional risk assessment tools and generated results.     

Seismic risk assessment for the Greater Sochi area

Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8–9 and 9–10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.     

Seismic analysis of a rotor-bearing system

The seismic analysis of a rotor-bearing system is presented in the time domain. The governing equations of motion for the rotor are derived including the effects of rotatory inertia, shear deformation, gyroscopic effects, axial force, axial torque, stiffness and damping provided by the lubricants in the bearings, base translation and base rotation. A simple and efficient finite rotor element based on a Galerkin formulation is proposed to model the rotor. The effects of disks and flywheels mounted on the rotor are also included in the analysis. An example problem for a rotor-bearing system is solved using El Centro earthquake data. Four cases are investigated that will permit one to study the influence of spin, base rotation, comparison between rigid body model and beam model and the influence of axial force and axial torque. The results of the above study show that the gyroscopic effects amplify the response of the rotor-bearing system. The base rotations of the rotor-bearing system under seismic excitation contribute significantly to the response.