Mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones in the surface wind field

The mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific in 2002–2007 at different stages of evolution (from the genesis to the maximum intensity) is studied using the QuikSCAT satellite data and JRA-25 reanalysis data. It is demonstrated that the genesis of the tropical cyclone was preceded by the formation of the stable disturbance that was observed in the vorticity field on the average 47 hours before the first report. The variability is noted of the mesoscale structure of the cyclone during the process of its formation and evolution: the increase in the intensity of mesovortices, the decrease in their number as a result of the merging, the narrowing of the area occupied by them, and localization of this area near the center at the stage of maximum development. It is shown that the relationship between the mean intensity of mesovortices at the initial disturbance and the tropical cyclone intensity is close to linear and has high correlation coefficients.     

爆发性与非爆发性海洋温带气旋

本文选取分别代表爆发性发展(1983年3月)和非爆发性发展(1982年3月)的两个海洋温带气旋个例,对它们进行了比较研究。结果表明,无论是在基本要素场,还是诊断出的物理量场,两者都表现出明显的差异。其中,涡度、位势涡度、扰动动能和总动能之间的差别更大。在爆发阶段,前3项的增加量爆发性气旋是非爆发性气旋的2—4倍,而总动能的增大值两者悬殊更大,比值为13.6:1。     

风廓线雷达资料反演雨滴谱和水汽通量的研究

对2010年7月20日南京浦口地区发生的一次强降水过程,用WP-3000风廓线雷达反演了其雨滴谱分布和垂直水汽通量。并对雨滴谱进行了M-P指数拟合,求得了降水前期、中期、后期和即将停止时的浓度参数n₀和尺度参数λ随高度的变化。同时利用该雷达反演了这次降水过程的回波强度、折射率结构常数和信噪比时间序列图,发现三者有很好的对应关系。结果显示:(1)n₀和λ随着降水的发展而发生变化,n₀在降水达到最强之前达到最大值,λ在降水最强时出现最小值;(2)n₀在大气低层波动比高层明显,λ则在整层少有波动;(3)雨滴大小,随雨强的变化而变化,小雨滴数量多于大雨滴,但影响雨强的主要是大雨滴;(4)整个降水过程中近地面垂直水汽通量处在不断变化之中,但在雨后,表现为水汽向上输送。     

Evaluation of wind resource using numerically optimized data in the southwestern Korean Peninsula

The wind distribution over the Korean Peninsula was analyzed using numerically optimized wind data to reduce the uncertainties in estimating the wind resources. The simulated data were validated by a comparison with surface wind observations and three statistical indexes. According to the simulated surface winds, mesoscale circulation, such as land-sea breeze and mountain-valley winds affect the wind characteristics of the hub height at coastal and inland regions. However, the prevailing winds are strongly associated with the synoptic forcing at the island and mountainous regions, not the regional circulation. On the other hand, the atmospheric stability definitely affects the strength of the daytime and nocturnal wind speed at a hub height. Overall, there was a significant difference between the numerical and logarithmic method to estimate the wind energy at hub height. Moreover, the discrepancy in the wind density estimated using the two methods becomes clear over inland and mountainous areas.     

An error analysis of profile flux,stability, and roughness length measurements made in the marine atmospheric surface layer

An analytical error analysis of profile-derived fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum, along with stability and roughness length, is performed using the accuracies of the constituent temperature, humidity, and wind speed measurements. Five experiments, representing more than two thirds of the existing marine profile data presently contained in the literature, are compared. Much of the profile data examined was used to develop the transfer coefficients presently employed by a large number of competing bulk aerodynamic flux schemes. Depending upon the experiment, typical profile-method measurement errors were found to range from 15 to 35% for a sensible heat flux of ± 10 W m^-2, from 15 to 105% for a latent heat flux of ± 100 W m^-2, from 10 to 40% for a stress of 0.05 N m^-2, from 15 to 60% for a Monin-Obukhov stability of ± 0.05, and from 25 to 100% for a roughness length of 2 × 10^-4 m. Smaller magnitude flux values were found to contain typical errors as large as 100% for sensible heat flux, 300% for latent heat flux, and 60% for stress.     

5月青藏高原5套地表感热通量资料的对比分析

基于1979-2017年5月青藏高原地区149个站点观测资料计算的地表感热通量（OBCH）和4套再分析资料提供的地表感热通量,对比分析了青藏高原地表感热通量的时空变化特征。结果表明：5月各地表感热再分析资料在高原主体部分（3 000 m以上部分）的气候平均值均为正值,说明高原主体5月为同一热源,且均呈高原西部（90°E为界）感热通量偏大,东部偏小的特征。5月高原主体各套平均地表感热通量均呈减弱趋势,除ERA感热表现为增强外,其余3套再分析资料在高原西部均表现为减弱,减弱趋势显著;5套资料在高原东部均表现为减弱趋势,除OBCH资料外,均表现为显著减弱。EOF分析发现,除了ERA-Interim资料,其余4套资料在高原主体第一模态主要表现为一致性变化,第二模态空间分布呈明显差异。从各套资料与OBCH资料的时间相关来看,ERA-Interim资料与OBCH资料相关系数可达0.70,说明二者在5月具有较好的年际变化一致性特征,而NCEP2资料与OBCH资料相关系数仅为0.33,说明二者具有较大的年际变化差异。     

A meteorological analysis of ozone episodes using HYSPLIT model and surface data

Ozone episodes (> 100 ppbv) were observed frequently in Jinan, an urban site located between the highly polluted Yangtze Delta and Beijing–Tianjin region in East China. In this study, the ozone episodes observed in 2004 were analysed using the Hybrid Single-particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and surface meteorological data, as well as Air Pollution Index (API). The meteorological conditions of episode days and non-episode days were compared and examined, and categorization of 6 groups of backward trajectories was performed. The results show that, most episodes were caused by local photochemical production (e.g., induced by sufficient sunshine duration and high temperature) and pollutant accumulation (e.g., induced by little rainfall and low wind speed), and transport of pollutants from the highly polluted regions could significantly influence the air quality at the site, especially from Yangtze Delta region. In addition, three typical ozone episodes were analysed using HYSPLIT model to infer any long-distance transport and surface meteorological data to infer the local ozone production potential. At last, the functions and inadequacies about the usage of HYSPLIT model combined with surface meteorological data for the analysis of photochemical pollution were discussed.     

Nonparametric analysis of high wind speed data

In this paper, nonparametric curve estimation methods are applied to analyze time series of wind speeds, focusing on the extreme events exceeding a chosen threshold. Classical parametric statistical approaches in this context consist in fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution, using maximum likelihood or the method of the moments to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Additionally, confidence intervals are usually computed to assess the uncertainty of the estimates. Nonparametric methods to estimate directly some quantities of interest, such as the probability of exceedance, the quantiles or return levels, or the return periods, are proposed. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for these functions. The proposed models are applied to wind speed data in the Gulf Coast of US, comparing the results with those using the GPD approach, by means of a split-sample test. Results show that nonparametric methods are competitive with respect to the standard GPD approximations. The study is completed generating synthetic data sets and comparing the behavior of the parametric and the nonparametric estimates in this framework.     

一次江淮气旋的模拟和海洋敏感试验

运用中尺度WRFV3.0模式,对2009年4月19日00时-22日00时期间的一次江淮气旋进行了数值模拟(控制试验CTR)研究,得出在CTR中江淮气旋的路径和发展趋势总体上比较理想,为此进一步设计海洋属性敏感试验,探讨海洋属性对江淮气旋的路径和强度的影响.结果表明:当海洋属性修改成陆地属性后,江淮气旋路径向东南偏移,入海后,偏离程度增大;气旋强度在大别山附近稍有增强,入海后强度减弱.气旋中心南侧的偏南气流、气旋前部的水汽辐合区和强对流有效位能,以及气旋中心附近的强潜热能,均有利于江淮气旋发展.     

ASCAT近岸风在山东沿海的适用性分析

利用2013年1月—2014年12月山东近海的8个浮标站、海岛站和自动站资料与ASCAT近岸风速和风向进行对比,以分析ASCAT反演风场在山东沿海的适用性。研究发现：总体上看,ASCAT近岸风速与代表站实况风速正相关,ASCAT近岸风速在山东沿海误差较小,风向有明显的偏离。ASCAT近岸风在渤海、渤海海峡和黄海北部的适用性优于黄海中部。风力不同时,ASCAT近岸风速与实况偏差有明显差别,表现为当实况出现6级及以上的大风,ASCAT近岸风速小于实况;当实况出现6级以下的风,ASCAT近岸风速大于实况。就ASCAT风速偏差而言,6级以下的风速偏差小于6级及以上风。ASCAT近岸风向与实况偏差也有明显差别,当实况出现6级及以上的大风,ASCAT近岸风向与实况的偏离变小;当实况出现6级以下的风,ASCAT近岸风向与实况的偏离变大。因此,ASCAT近岸风速在山东沿海有较好的适用性,6级以下风更优;ASCAT近岸风向也有一定的适用性,6级及以上风向可用性比6级以下强。     

The feasibility of estimating large-scale surface wind fields for the summer MONEX using cloud motion and ship data

Cloud motion data were compared to ship observations over the Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon, 1 May to 31 July 1979, with the objective of using the cloud data for estimating surface wind and ultimately the wind stress on the ocean. The cloud-ship comparison indicated that the cloud motions could be used to estimate surface winds within reasonable accuracy bounds, 2.6 m s^-1 r.m.s. speeds and 22° to 44° r.m.s. directions (22° r.m.s. for winds < 10 m s^-1). A body of statistics is presented which can be used to construct an empirical boundary layer with the eventual goal of producing a stress analysis for the summer MONEX from cloud motion data.     

An analysis of wind velocity fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer using an orthonormal wavelet transform

A wavelet analysis can supply information of both the location (time) and the scale of fluctuations. This method is applied to the fluctuations of the natural wind and the turbulent transport of momentum in the atmospheric surface layer. The shapes of both the wavelet spectra and the Fourier spectra of the three components of the wind velocity fluctuations are similar to each other. The quadrant representation of momentum transport shows the scale difference of the transport. The large-scale fluctuations mainly contribute to the downward transport of momentum.     

Studying an interaction between tropical cyclones and jet streams using the numerical simulation data

Discussed are the results of studying an evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Pacific Ocean using the data of computation of ETA and WRF NMM mesoscale numerical atmospheric models. Computed are the trajectories of TCs and the fields of meteorological variables in the typhoons, of the wind speed and kinetic energy in the subtropical jet stream during the development of Parma, Melor, and Lupit typhoons. Carried out are the analysis and comparison of computed fields of pressure, wind, kinetic energy, and trajectories of TCs obtained using these models and their comparison with the actual fields. It is demonstrated that both models computed rather well the complex trajectories and the fields of wind and kinetic energy varying in the course of the interaction. Proposed is an explanation of processes taking place during the interaction between the vortices and the subtropical jet stream and the polar front.     

Observations of planview flux patterns within convective structures of the marine atmospheric surface layer

Air/sea flux variability on horizontal scales from 50 m to several km results, in part, from the presence of coherent convective structures within the atmospheric boundary layer. The horizontal distribution of fluxes within these convective updrafts and downdrafts is, therefore, central to studies of air/sea interaction and remote sensing of sea surface wind and wave fields. This study derives these flux patterns from observations of the Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer (MASL).Research aircraft flights through the MASL provide an optimal means for sampling large numbers of the above-mentioned coherent structures. The NCAR Electra flew numerous legs through the MASL at a height of 50 m during the 1987 stratocumulus phase of Project FIRE (First ISSCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program) Regional Experiment).In situ measurements from these legs serve as the dataset for this paper. The data are processed in such a way as to retain only the turbulence fluctuations. Conditional sampling, based on the vertical velocity field, results in the isolation of convective updrafts and downdrafts. Compositing of the data for these two classes of convective drafts results in horizontal planviews of the vertical fluxes of buoyancy, absolute humidity, along-meanwind component of momentum, and vertical velocity. To ensure dynamical similarity, these horizontal planviews are oriented in a coordinate system aligned with the mean wind.     

骆马湖大风试验资料对比分析

骆马湖是江苏省四大湖泊之一,位于宿迁和徐州两市交界,与宿豫区、新沂市、邳州市、濉宁县相邻,南北长27Km,东西宽13Km,是集防洪、灌溉、航运、发电、水产养殖、捕捞、采沙、旅游观光等于一体的综合性大型平原水库,湖区大风的发生与演变关系到湖区航运、水产养殖、捕捞、采沙、旅游观光等的作业安全。根据宿迁市政府关于骆马湖安全气象保障服务和风能开发利用及多轨道气象业务的需要,宿迁市气象局2005-04—2006—04进了骆马湖大风试验观测。     

Estimating surface sensible heat flux using sodar and surface temperature measurements in the evolving convective boundary layer

A simple method is described for estimating the sensible heat flux by using a Doppler sodar system and a thermal probe. This method, which can be applied to a convective boundary layer in morning hours, is based on knowing the zero heat flux level from the reflectivity and the vertical wind speed.     

利用AMDAR数据分析厦门、泉州双雷达三维风场反演误差

利用2016年全年进出厦门机场和晋江机场航班的AMDAR(Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay)数据对双雷达反演风场进行检验,分析了厦门、泉州双雷达风场反演的总体误差,研究结果表明:1)验证了双雷达连线附近区域反演风场的平均绝对误差较大,发现了与两部雷达连线的夹角小于15°和大于165°的区域的反演结果的平均绝对误差明显大于误差的年平均值。2)对于反演风向而言,误差随着高度增加而减小。对于反演风速而言,高度在9 km以下的反演误差在5 m/s左右,而9 km以上的反演误差较小。3)剔除了双雷达连线附近区域(与两部雷达连线的夹角小于15°和大于165°的区域)和反射率因子小于5 dBZ以及等于100 dBZ(剔除非气象回波)的反演结果后,双雷达反演风场误差较小,相对于AMDAR数据的风向年平均绝对误差为29.4°,风速年平均绝对误差为3.28 m/s,总体误差在可接受范围之内,反演结果接近"真值",该反演方法稳定可靠。     

Latent and sensible heat flux predictions from a uniform pine forest using surface renewal and flux variance methods

A surface renewal model that links organized eddy motion to the latent and sensible heat fluxes is tested with eddy correlation measurements carried out in a 13m tall uniform Loblolly pine plantation in Duke Forest, Durham, North Carolina. The surface renewal model is based on the occurance of ramp-like patterns in the scalar concentration measurements. To extract such ramp-like patterns from Eulerian scalar concentration measurements, a newly proposed time-frequency filtering scheme is developed and tested. The time-domain filtering is carried out using compactly-supported orthonormal wavelets in conjunction with the Universal Wavelet Thresholding approach of Donoho and Johnstone, while the frequency filtering is carried out by a band-pass sine filter centered around the ramp-occurrence frequency as proposed by other studies. The method was separately tested for heat and water vapour with good agreement between eddy correlation flux measurements and model predictions. The usefulness of the flux-variance method to predict sensible and latent heat fluxes is also considered. Our measurements suggest that the simple flux-variance method reproduces the measured heat and momentum fluxes despite the fact that the variances were measured within the roughness sublayer and not in the surface layer. Central to the predictions of water vapour fluxes using the flux-variance approach is the similarity between heat and water vapour transport by the turbulent air flow. This assumption is also investigated for this uniform forest terrain.