Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin

Abstract

Pakistan has suffered a devastating flood disaster in 2010. In the Kabul River basin (92 605 km²), large-scale riverine and flash floods caused destructive damage with more than 1100 casualties. This study analysed rainfall–runoff and inundation in the Kabul River basin with a newly developed model that simulates the processes of rainfall–runoff and inundation simultaneously based on two-dimensional diffusion wave equations. The simulation results showed a good agreement with an inundation map produced based on MODIS for large-scale riverine flooding. In addition, the simulation identified flash flood-affected areas, which were confirmed to be severely damaged based on a housing damage distribution map. Since the model is designed to be used even immediately after a disaster, it can be a useful tool for analysing large-scale flooding and to provide supplemental information to agencies for relief operations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Sayama, T., Ozawa, G., Kawakami, T., Nabesaka, S. and Fukami, K., 2012. Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 298–312.     

Rainfall–runoff,flood inundation and sensitivity analysis of the 2014 Pakistan flood in the Jhelum and Chenab river basin

ABSTRACT

The major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow.     

A wavelet based approach for combining the outputs of different rainfall–runoff models

The rainfall–runoff modelling being a stochastic process in nature is dependent on various climatological variables and catchment characteristics and therefore numerous hydrological models have been developed to simulate this complex process. One approach to modelling this complex non-linear rainfall–runoff process is to combine the outputs of various models to get more accurate and reliable results. This multi-model combination approach relies on the fact that various models capture different features of the data, and hence combination of these features would yield better result. This study for the first time presented a novel wavelet based combination approach for estimating combined runoff The simulated daily output (Runoff) of five selected conventional rainfall–runoff models from seven different catchments located in different parts of the world was used in current study for estimating combined runoff for each time period. Five selected rainfall–runoff models used in this study included four data driven models, namely, the simple linear model, the linear perturbation model, the linearly varying variable gain factor model, the constrained linear systems with a single threshold and one conceptual model, namely, the soil moisture accounting and routing model. The multilayer perceptron neural network method was used to develop combined wavelet coupled models to evaluate the effect of wavelet transformation (WT). The performance of the developed wavelet coupled combination models was compared with their counterpart simple combination models developed without WT. It was concluded that the presented wavelet coupled combination approach outperformed the existing approaches of combining different models without applying input WT. The study also recommended that different models in a combination approach should be selected on the basis of their individual performance.     

Effect of climate changes on the maximal runoff in the Amur Basin: Estimation based on dynamic–stochastic simulation

The potentialities of dynamic–stochastic simulation are analyzed as applied to changes in the regime of summer–autumn rain-flood runoff, which is the governing phase of water regime in the Amur Basin. The scenario of climate changes was formulated in a maximally generalized form as an increase in the sum of seasonal precipitation by an amount of up to 20% of its average long-term value; therefore, all obtained estimates are to be regarded as tentative. Notwithstanding the relatively poor support by observation data, a regionally adapted hydrological model with a flood cycle model (FCM) as its core yields reliable and convincing results. The most important conclusion regards the possible disproportionate response to a climate impact, i.e., the relative increase in minimal-runoff characteristics is far in excess of the assumed increase in the total precipitation.     

Following the curve? Reviewing the physical basis of the SCS curve number method for estimating storm runoff

Less attention has been paid to runoff generation from semi-arid than from humid-temperate catchments. The SCS curve number approach is simple to apply and widely used, but lacks physical underpinning. Here output from a runoff generation models is compared with data from field measurements, making use of 11 years data from rainfall and runoff events at the Sierra de Enguera Soil Erosion Experimental Station in Eastern Spain. Runoff from natural rainfall events was monitored for 10 years on bare plots of 1–16 m length. The largest storm event was of 142 mm, generating runoff of up to 115 mm on the smallest plots. The model presented simulates overland storm flow on a sloping rough and unvegetated surface, representing an area of 320 × 320 m. Green-Ampt infiltration constants are randomly assigned to each cell in a 128 × 128 grid, and rectangular storms applied at a range of total amounts and intensities to simulate runoff at each transect across the area. A simple algebraic expression is developed to estimate total runoff and storage in terms of storm size and duration, and plot length, with parameters that reflect infiltration behaviour, and this expression is compared with the SCS curve number approach. For the very largest storms, both expressions converge asymptotically towards 100% runoff, but the revised expression greatly improves estimates of runoff from smaller events. Output of these simulations is compared with measured storm runoff data on bare runoff plots at the Sierra de Enguera experimental Station in SE Spain and gives further support to the proposed expression for storm runoff.     

Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York,UK (1200–2000)

Abstract

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.

Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162.     

Comparison of electronic and mechanical Schmidt hammers in the context of exposure‐age dating: are Q‐ and R‐values interconvertible?

Application of Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) to landforms has substantially increased in recent years. The original mechanical Schmidt hammer records R‐(rebound) values. Although the newly introduced electronic Schmidt hammer (SilverSchmidt) facilitates greatly improved data processing, it measures surface hardness differently, recording Q‐(velocity) values that are not a priori interconvertible with R‐values. This study is the first to compare the performance of both instruments in the context of field‐based exposure‐age dating with a particular focus on the interconvertibility of R‐values and Q‐values. The study was conducted on glacially polished pyroxene‐granulite gneiss, Jotunheimen, southern Norway. Results indicate that mean Q‐values are consistently 8–10 units higher than mean R‐values over the range of values normally encountered in the application of SHD to glacial and periglacial landforms. A convenient conversion factor of ±10 units may, therefore, be appropriate for all but the softest rock types close to the technical resolution of the instruments. The electronic Schmidt hammer should therefore be regarded as a useful complement and potential replacement for the mechanical Schmidt hammer. Conversion of published R‐values data to Q‐values requires, however, careful control and documentation of instrument calibration. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can ground densification improve seismic performance of the soil‐foundation‐structure system on liquefiable soils?

Over the past few decades, soil densification has been widely employed to reduce the liquefaction hazard or consequences on structures. The decision to mitigate and the design of densification specifications are typically based on procedures that assume free‐field conditions or experience. As a result, the influence of ground densification on the performance of structures and the key mechanisms of soil‐structure interaction remains poorly understood. This paper presents results of four centrifuge tests to evaluate the performance of 3‐ and 9‐story, potentially inelastic structures on liquefiable ground with and without densification. Densification was shown to generally reduce the net excess pore pressures and foundation permanent settlements (although not necessarily to acceptable levels), while amplifying the accelerations on the foundation. The influence of these demands on the performance of the foundation and superstructure depended on the structure's strength and dynamic properties, as well as ground motion characteristics. In addition, densification tended to amplify the moment demand at the beam and column connections, which increased permanent flexural deformations and P‐Δ effects (particularly on the heavier and weaker structure) that could have an adverse effect on foundation rotation. The experimental results presented aim to provide insight into the potential tradeoffs of ground densification, which may reduce foundation permanent settlement, but amplify shaking intensity that can result in larger foundation rotation, flexural drifts, and damage to the superstructure, if not considered in design. These considerations are important for developing performance‐based strategies to design mitigation techniques that improve performance of the soil‐foundation‐structure system in a holistic manner.     

Rock‐protecting seaweed? Experimental evidence of bioprotection in the intertidal zone

Biogeomorphological processes are an important component of dynamic intertidal systems. On rocky shores, the direct contribution of microorganisms, plants and animals to weathering and erosion is well known. There is also increasing evidence that organisms can alter rock breakdown indirectly, by moderating temperature and moisture regimes at the rock–air interface. These influences have been purported to represent mechanisms of bioprotection, by buffering microclimatic fluctuations associated with weathering processes such as wetting and drying and salt crystallization. However, virtually nothing has been done to test whether microclimatic buffering translates to differences in actual rock breakdown rates. Here we report a preliminary laboratory experiment to assess how an artificial canopy (chosen to represent seaweed) affects mechanical rock breakdown. Using a simplified and accelerated thermal regime based on field data from a rocky shore platform in southern England, UK, we find that breakdown (mineral debris release) of mudstone covered with a canopy is reduced by as much as 79% relative to bare rock after around 100 thermal cycles. Reduction in rock surface hardness (measured using an Equotip device) was also greater for bare rock (17%) compared to covered rock (10%) over this period. Measurements of salt crystal formation indicate that the mechanism driving these differences was a reduction in the frequency of crystallization events, via moisture retention and shading of the rock surface. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca,Perú)

Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini ( 2012 ) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Calibration of a rainfall–runoff model at regional scale by optimising river discharge statistics: Performance analysis for the average/low flow regime

Traditional procedures for rainfall–runoff model calibration are generally based on the fit of individual values of simulated and observed hydrographs. We use here an alternative option that is carried out by matching, in the optimisation process, a set of streamflow statistics. Such an approach has the significant advantage to enable also a straightforward regional calibration of model parameters, based on the regionalisation of the selected statistics. The minimisation of the set of objective functions is carried out by using the AMALGAM algorithm, leading to the identification of behavioural parameter sets. The procedure is applied to a set of river basins located in central Italy: the basins are treated alternatively as gauged and ungauged and, as a term of comparison, the results obtained with a traditional time-domain calibration are also presented. With respect to previous applications of analogous procedures, we investigate here the identification of the target statistics depending on the purposes of the application, and in particular when the focus is on the reproduction of the low-flows. The results show that a suitable choice of the statistics to be optimised leads to interesting results in real world case studies as far as the reproduction of the different flow regimes is concerned.     

Should the Three Gorges Dam be blamed for the extremely low water levels in the middle–lower Yangtze River?

Extremely low water level events have frequently occurred in the middle–lower Yangtze River (MLYR) in recent years (2006–2011). Most of these drought events coincided with the initial operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The TGD was therefore the focus of controversy about the causes of the hydrological droughts of the rivers and lakes of the region. We quantified the effects of the TGD's operation on water levels from 2006 to 2011 using a newly developed hydrodynamic model. The operation of the TGD significantly exacerbated the severe hydrological droughts that occurred in late September to November because of water impoundment, but it increased water levels from April to early June in the MLYR because of the drawdown of TGD water levels. Evidence suggests that the recent extremely low water levels were mainly because of the remarkable decline in inflows to the MLYR resulting from precipitation changes and possible human activities. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the effects of the TGD on downstream rivers and lakes will be intensified in the foreseeable future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continuous measurement of nitrate concentration in a highly event‐responsive agricultural catchment in south‐west of France: is the gain of information useful?

A nitrate sensor has been set up to measure every 10 min the nitrate signal in a stream draining a small agricultural catchment dominated by fertilized crops during a 2‐year study period (2006–2008) in the south‐west of France. An in situ sampling protocol using automatic sampler to monitor flood events have been used to assume a point‐to‐point calibration of the sensor values. The nitrate concentration exhibits nonsystematic concentration and dilution effects during flood events. We demonstrate that the calibrated nitrate sensor signal gathered from the outlet is considered to be a continuous signal using the Nyquist–Shannon sampling theorem. The objectives of this study are to quantify the errors generated by a typical infrequent sampling protocol and to design appropriate sampling strategy according to the sampling objectives. Nitrate concentration signal and flow data are numerically sampled to simulate common sampling frequencies. The total fluxes calculated from the simulated samples are compared with the reference value computed on the continuous signal. Uncertainties are increasing as sampling intervals increase; the method that is not using continuous discharge to compute nitrate fluxes bring larger uncertainty. The dispersion and bias computed for each sampling interval are used to evaluate the uncertainty during each hydrological period. High underestimation is made during flood periods when high‐concentration period is overlooked. On the contrary, high sampling frequencies (from 3 h to 1 day) lead to a systematic overestimation (bias around 3%): highest concentrations are overweighted by the interpolation of the concentration in such case. The in situ sampling protocol generates less than 1% of load estimation error and sample highest concentration peaks. We consider useful such newly emerging field technologies to assess short‐term variations of water quality parameters, to minimize the number of samples to be analysed and to assess the quality state of the stream at any time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of homogeneous regional classes for flood frequency analysis in the light of regional taxonomy / Identification de classes régionales homogènes pour l'analyse fréquentielle des crues à la lumière d'une taxinomie régionale

Abstract

The paper analyses delineation of hydrological regional classes in the light of regional taxonomy. A brief review of terminological and methodological aspects of regional taxonomy is outlined. The analysis of identification of hydrological regional classes from the point of view of the definition of the basic spatial unit, formulation of the regional taxonomic problem and evaluation of the hydrological response of the physical regional classes is then followed. A more detailed delineation of physical regional classes and a marked separation concerning their hydrological response are achieved if the basic spatial unit is defined as a small basin. Formulation of a hydrological regionalization or regional typification by means of problems defined in regional taxonomy can remove ambiguous and inconsistent features in identifying regional classes. The physical regional classes formed for the purpose of regional flood frequency analysis are considered as regional also from the hydrological point of view only if they satisfy both conditions of intra-class similarity and of inter-class dissimilarity regarding the hydrological attributes.     

‘Out with the Old?’ Why coarse spatial datasets are still useful for catchment‐scale investigations of sediment (dis)connectivity

The increasing popularity of remote sensing techniques has created numerous options for researchers seeking spatial datasets, especially digital elevation models (DEMs), for geomorphic investigations. This yields an important question regarding what DEM resolution is most appropriate when answering questions of geomorphic significance. The highest possible resolution is not always the best choice for a particular research aim, and DEM resolution should be tailored to fit both the scale of investigation and the simplicity/complexity of modelling processes applied to the dataset. We find that DEM resolution has a significant effect on a simple model of bed load sediment connectivity in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland. We apply a simple bed load transport threshold to catchment DEMs at three different resolutions – 1 m, 5 m, and 25 m. We find that using a 1 m resolution DEM generates numerous disconnections along tributary channel networks that underestimates the sediment contributing area, i.e. effective catchment area (ECA), of seven tributary basins of Lockyer Creek. Utilizing a coarser (lower‐resolution) DEM helps eliminate erroneous disconnections, but can reduce the detail of stream network definition. We find that the 25 m resolution DEM provides the best measure of ECA for comparing sediment connectivity between tributary catchments. The utility of simple models and coarse‐resolution datasets is important for undertaking large, catchment‐scale geomorphic investigations. As catchment‐scale investigations are becoming increasingly entwined with river management and rehabilitation efforts, scientists need not embrace an ‘out with the old’ philosophy. Simple models and coarse‐resolution datasets can help better integrate geomorphic research with management strategies and provide inexpensive and quick first‐order insights into catchment‐scale processes that can help focus future management efforts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The methods and program implementation for river longitudinal profile analysis—RiverProAnalysis,a set of open-source functions based on the Matlab platform

Science China Earth Sciences - River is one of the geomorphic units that are the most sensitive to tectonic activity, of which the longitudinal profile serves as a key archieve to record...     

Does litter decomposition vary between the foraging pits of two soil‐disturbing mammal species?

Soil‐disturbing animals play a critical role in many ecosystem processes. The loss of native soil‐foraging mammals (e.g. greater bilby Macrotis lagotis; burrowing bettong, Bettongia lesueur) throughout vast areas of Australia has altered fundamental soil processes such as decomposition. Little is known about whether surviving native soil‐disturbing animals (e.g. short‐beaked echidna, Tachyglossus aculeatus) produce soil disturbances that are functionally equivalent to those of locally‐extinct native animals. We used a litter bag study to compare abiotic and biotic mechanisms of decomposition within the foraging pits of two native mammal species. We compared decomposition rates between landforms, which we used as a surrogate for soil texture; grass species Austrostipa scabra subsp. scabra and Triodia scariosa subsp. scariosa, which we used as our substrates; and the effects of chemically excluding fungi and/or termites. There were initial differences in the organic mass loss between echidna and bilby/bettong foraging pits, with bilby/bettong pits losing more over 30 days, and echidnas losing more over 63 days. However, over 396 days there was no significant difference between the two pit types. Landform (soil texture) and chemical exclusion of termites and fungi did not affect our measures of decomposition until the final stage of the study. The two grass species lost significantly different amounts of organic material at each collection interval, with Austrostipa losing more at 30, 63 and 130 days and Triodia losing more at the final 396 day collection. This provided the most consistent effect on decomposition. Our results highlight the temporal idiosyncrasies in the various drivers of decomposition in this dune‐swale system. Overall, this study provides evidence that the foraging pits of the short‐beaked echidna do not differ markedly from those of the locally extinct greater bilby and burrowing bettong in terms of their capacity to maintain rates of decomposition at an annual scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.