Numerical analysis of the propagation and amplification of tsunami waves on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m. It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more pronounced.     

Spectra of the Black-Sea tsunamis

We perform the analysis of the time spectra of four tsunamis generated in the Black Sea by the earthquakes of 26.07.1927, 11.09.1927, 26.12.1939, and 12.07.1966. For the analysis of the spectra, we used digitized marigrams obtained for 12 points of the Black-Sea coast. The obtained spectra are, as a rule, multimode and have 1–4 spectral maxima. One maximum corresponds to the periods typical of tsunami waves and the other maxima correspond to the oscillations of the sea level with lower frequencies. It seems likely that the events of tsunami are accompanied by low-frequency oscillations of the level caused by the atmospheric forcing, seiches, or other factors. In numerous cases, the oscillations from the predominant energy range lie outside the characteristic range of periods of the tsunami waves. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 21–30, September–October, 2007.     

Analysis of the necessity and possibility of tsunami early warning on the Black-Sea coast

The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists. The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological observation stations existing in this region. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008.     

Numerical analysis of the propagation and amplification of tsunami waves of seismic generation in the Sea of Azov

The numerical analysis of the evolution of tsunamis is performed for the Sea of Azov. Our calculations are carried out on a grid with steps of 500 m, as applied to seaquakes with magnitudes within the range 6–7 for 18 circular zones of generation covering almost the entire water area of the sea. It is shown that the oscillations of the sea level in the form of cellular waves are formed as a result of the wave reflections from the coasts. Small areas of the elevated activity of waves are formed in the zones of irregularity of the coastline on the north coast of the sea and in the zones of shoals in the southeast part of the basin. On the basis of the determined values of extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level, we can make a conclusion that the tsunami hazard is quite low for the coast of the Sea of Azov.     

Radiation of long waves from Black Sea seismic zones

The paper is concerned with analysis of tsunami wave refraction in the Black Sea, radiated from six seismic areas. Numerical results have been obtained on the basis of a radiation model for long wave propagation, with the sources of tsunamis being pointlike and distributed. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Numerical modeling of the propagation and strengthening of tsunami waves near the Crimean Peninsula and the Northeast Coast of the Black Sea

The linear model of long waves is used for the evaluation of the parameters of tsunami waves along the South Coast of Crimea, in the near-Kerch zone, and near the northeast coast of the Black Sea. Our numerical investigations are carried out for 24 probable locations of the elliptic zones of tsunami generation over the continental slope of the basin. The amplitude characteristics of tsunamis are computed for 27 sites of the Black-Sea coast. It is shown that significant strengthening of tsunami waves is possible in the course of their propagation toward the coast. The highest waves are formed at the sites of the coast closest to the seismic source. The dependence of the intensity of tsunami waves along the Black-Sea coast on the location of the seismic source and its magnitude is analyzed.     

Scenarios of tsunami amplitudes in the north eastern coast of Sea of Marmara generated by submarine mass failure

In this paper the tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure such as slides and slumps triggered by earthquakes or other environmental effects, which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined in one sample region. As the solution method, one hybrid method is developed. The main objective of this method is to combine an analytical solution presenting near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure with a numerical solution indicating the tsunami amplitudes in the coastal regions. For this purpose, one common linear boundary between analytical and numerical solution domains is defined. Movements of Submarine Mass Failures (SMF) are modeled using one simple kinematics source model and the amplitudes of the tsunamis at the region that are closer to the landslide are computed by using the analytical method. SMF is modeled approximately from the bottom geometry, and an average depth is used. Scenarios of SMF are established depending on the velocities and thicknesses of the failure, and near-field tsunami amplitudes are obtained in the open sea during the source time. After the source times, the solutions are found in the numerical region using TELEMAC-2D software system with the mentioned boundary above. In this boundary, the output of the analytical solutions is taken as the boundary conditions or the disturbances for the numerical method. With these disturbances, the numerical method is performed and the amplitudes are calculated in the coastal area. The generation, propagation and coastal amplifications of the tsunamis are illustrated at some certain points and regions both in the open sea and near the coast line. The results have been visualized and discussed.     

Evaluation of the Parameters of Tsunami Waves along the South Coast of the Crimean Peninsula

Within the framework of a nonlinear model of long waves, we present the estimates of the parameters of tsunami waves along the south coast of the Crimean Peninsula (from Cape Khersones to Cape Meganom) with a space resolution of 2.5 km. The numerical analysis is carried out for four typical positions of the elliptic zones of generation and the range of magnitudes 6.5–7.5. We study the space structure of waves and determine the amplitudes and periods of oscillations of the level at 11 points of the analyzed part of the coastline of the Black Sea. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 3 – 10, May–June, 2005.     

Strongest tsunamis in the World Ocean and the problem of marine coastal security

We consider the problems of assessing tsunami danger for sea coasts taking into account the risk of the strongest tsunamis of seismic origin. We identify a class of particularly dangerous transoceanic events characterized by extremely high runups (up to 40–50 m) at extended coastal areas (up to 500–1000 km). In most cases these transoceanic tsunamis are caused by underwater mega-earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or more occurring with a period between 200–300 and 1000–1200 years in some areas of subduction zones. The possibility of these earthquakes in subduction zones directly threatening a given coast should be taken into account in creating maps of tsunami zoning of any scale.     

Hydrooptical Characteristics of Subsatellite Test Ranges in the Mediterranean and Black Seas According to the Data of Investigations Performed by the R/V Gorizont in 1998

Hydrooptical investigations were performed for three subsatellite test ranges located near the Rhodes Island in the Levant Sea, near Dardanelles in the north part of the Aegean Sea, and near the Crimean Peninsula in the northwest part of the Black Sea. In the course of observations, we measured the beam attenuation coefficient, the depth of visibility of the Secchi disk, and the color of water. These data are used to characterize the space and time variability of the optical properties of water in the investigated regions.     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.     

Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation in the open Black Sea

This paper focuses on the numerical modelling of tsunami propagation in the open Black Sea. Two types of numerical models are discussed: a model for the radial propagation of long waves and an evolutionary finite-difference prognostic model. Experimentally derived numerical data on the model source of tsunamis are reported. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Scenarios of local tsunamis in the China Seas by Boussinesq model

The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea.     

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events). Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian coast of the Black Sea.     

Correlation between the intensity of tsunami in the Black Sea and the magnitude of underwater earthquakes

We perform the analysis of tsunami waves in the shelf zone of the Crimean peninsula generated by underwater earthquakes whose epicentres are located near the lower boundary of the continental slope. For this purpose, we use a one-dimensional nonlinear dissipative numerical model of long waves. The investigated distributions of the depth of the basin correspond to four points of the south coast of the Crimean peninsula. We use the empirical dependences of parameters of the sources of tsunami waves on the magnitude of the earthquake obtained earlier for the Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the height, vertical climb, and duration of tsunami waves increase with the magnitude of the earthquake. For equal magnitudes of the earthquake, the highest tsunamis on the south coast of the Crimea are observed between Alushta and Yalta. We also deduced a generalized regression dependence of the height of tsunami waves near the coast on the magnitude of the earthquake. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

The Kuril Earthquakes and tsunamis of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007: Observations,analysis, and numerical modeling

Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M _w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.     

Modelling of underwater seismic centres and the generation and transformation of tsunami waves in seismic areas

The mechanism of underwater earthquakes and tsunami wave generation in the Azov Sea-Black Sea region is studied, and theoretical principles of selecting simulation models are elaborated. In this connection, the geophysical data on the distribution, intensity and mechanisms of underwater seismic zones that may give rise to catastrophic disturbances of the marine environment are summarized and categorized, specifically, those that give rise to tsunamis. This makes possible the development and updating of mathematical models for the generation of seismic and surface gravity waves, considering geological heterogeneities, bottom irregularities, bottom sediments, etc. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.