黄河阶地特征与地震动参数的相关性研究

在分析已有资料的基础上划分了兰州盆地与建设工程分布密切相关的T₀、T₁、T₂、T₃和T₄级黄河阶地,建立201个土层地震反应模型。通过一维等效线性化计算和反应谱分析,得出兰州盆地沉积阶地50年超越概率10%地表地震动参数,分析阶地高度和v_S≤500 m/s覆盖层厚度特征与地震动参数峰值加速度Am和加速度反应谱特征周期T_g的相关性。表明兰州盆地T₀~T₂阶地覆盖层厚度与50年超越概率10%A_m呈正相关,T₃及以上阶地覆盖层厚度对A_m增大有明显的减小作用。T_g值随T₀~T₃阶地覆盖层厚度的增加而变大,当覆盖层厚度进一步变大,T_g值不再同步增大,阶地覆盖层厚度对T_g的影响是有限的,阶地海拔高度与地表50年超越概率10%地震动参数没有关系。     

Response of hydrological processes to land‐cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed,south‐west China

Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes

A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.     

Modelling snowpack surface temperature in the Canadian Prairies using simplified heat flow models

Three practical schemes for computing the snow surface temperature T_s, i.e. the force–restore method (FRM), the surface conductance method (SCM), and the Kondo and Yamazaki method (KYM), were assessed with respect to T_s retrieved from cloud‐free, NOAA‐AVHRR satellite data for three land‐cover types of the Paddle River basin of central Alberta. In terms of R², the mean T_s, the t‐test and F‐test, the FRM generally simulated more accurate T_s than the SCM and KYM. The bias in simulated T_s is usually within several degrees Celsius of the NOAA‐AVHRR T_s for both the calibration and validation periods, but larger errors are encountered occasionally, especially when T_s is substantially above 0 °C. Results show that the simulated T_s of the FRM is more consistent than that of the SCM, which in turn was more consistent than that of the KYM. This is partly because the FRM considers two aspects of heat conduction into snow, a stationary‐mean diurnal (sinusoidal) temperature variation at the surface coupled to a near steady‐state ground heat flux, whereas the SCM assumes a near steady‐state, simple heat conduction, and other simplifying assumptions, and the KYM does not balance the snowpack heat fluxes by assuming the snowpack having a vertical temperature profile that is linear. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation variability and its relationship to hydrologic variability in Alberta

By applying wavelet‐based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) analysis to gridded precipitation (P) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to gridded air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), net precipitation (P‐PET) and runoff (Q), this paper examines the spatial, temporal and frequency patterns of Alberta's climate variability. It was found that only WEOF‐based precipitation patterns, possibly modulated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), delineated Alberta into four major regions which geographically represent northern Alberta Boreal forests, southern Alberta grasslands and Aspen Parklands and the Rocky Mountains and Foothills. The leading mode of wavelet‐based precipitation variability WPC1 showed that between 1900 and 2000, a wet climate dominated northern Alberta with significant 4–8, 11 and 25‐year periodic cycles, while the second mode WPC2 showed that between 1960 and 2000, southern Alberta grasslands were characterized by decreasing precipitation, dominated by 11‐year cycles, and the last two modes WPC3 and WPC4 were characterized by 4–7 and 25‐year cycles and both delineated regions where moisture from the Pacific Ocean penetrated the Rocky Mountains, accounted for much of the sub‐alpine climate. These results show that WEOF is superior to EOF in delineating Alberta precipitation variability to sub‐regions that more closely agree with its eco‐climate regions. Further, it was found that while WPC2 could not explain runoff variations in southern Alberta, WPC1, WPC3 and WPC4 accounted for runoff variability in their respective sub‐regions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Landscape controls on long‐term runoff in subhumid heterogeneous Boreal Plains catchments

We compared median runoff (R) and precipitation (P) relationships over 25 years from 20 mesoscale (50 to 5,000 km²) catchments on the Boreal Plains, Alberta, Canada, to understand controls on water sink and source dynamics in water‐limited, low‐relief northern environments. Long‐term catchment R and runoff efficiency (RP^?1) were low and varied spatially by over an order of magnitude (3 to 119 mm/year, 1 to 27%). Intercatchment differences were not associated with small variations in climate. The partitioning of P into evapotranspiration (ET) and R instead reflected the interplay between underlying glacial deposit texture, overlying soil‐vegetation land cover, and regional slope. Correlation and principal component analyses results show that peatland‐swamp wetlands were the major source areas of water. The lowest estimates of median annual catchment ET (321 to 395 mm) and greatest R (60 to 119 mm, 13 to 27% of P) were observed in low‐relief, peatland‐swamp dominated catchments, within both fine‐textured clay‐plain and coarse‐textured glacial deposits. In contrast, open‐water wetlands and deciduous‐mixedwood forest land covers acted as water sinks, and less catchment R was observed with increases in proportional coverage of these land covers. In catchments dominated by hummocky moraines, long‐term runoff was restricted to 10 mm/year, or 2% of P. This reflects the poor surface‐drainage networks and slightly greater regional slope of the fine‐textured glacial deposit, coupled with the large soil‐water and depression storage and higher actual ET of associated shallow open‐water marsh wetland and deciduous‐forest land covers. This intercatchment study enhances current conceptual frameworks for predicting water yield in the Boreal Plains based on the sink and source functions of glacial landforms and soil‐vegetation land covers. It offers the capability within this hydro‐geoclimatic region to design reclaimed catchments with desired hydrological functionality and associated tolerances to climate or land‐use changes and inform land management decisions based on effective catchment‐scale conceptual understanding.     

Synergistic effect of vegetation and air temperature changes on soil water content in alpine frost meadow soil in the permafrost region of Qinghai‐Tibet

Seasonal changes over 2 years (2004–2006) in soil moisture content (θ_v) of frozen alpine frost meadow soils of the Qinghai‐Tibet plateau permafrost region under three different levels of vegetation cover were investigated. Vegetation cover and air temperature changes had significant effects (synergistic effect) on θ_v and its distribution in the soil profile. During periods of soil freezing or thawing, the less the vegetation cover, the quicker the temperature drop or rise of soil water, and the shorter the duration of the soil water freeze–thaw response in the active soil layer. Under 30% and 65% vegetation cover the amplitude of variation in θ_v during the freezing period was 20–26% greater than that under 93% cover, while during the thawing period, it was 1·5‐ to 40·5‐fold greater. The freezing temperature of the surface soil layer, ^fT_s, was 1·6 °C lower under 30% vegetation cover than under 93% vegetation cover. Changes in vegetation cover of the alpine frost meadow affected θ_v and its distribution, as well as the relationship between θ_v and soil temperature (T_s). As vegetation cover decreased, soil water circulation in the active layer increased, and the response to temperature of the water distribution across the soil profile was heightened. The quantity of transitional soil phase water at different depths significantly increased as vegetation cover decreased. The influence of vegetation cover and soil temperature distribution led to a relatively dry soil layer in the middle of the profile (0·70–0·80 m) under high vegetation cover. Alpine meadow θ_v and its pattern of distribution in the permafrost region were the result of the synergistic effect of air temperature and vegetation cover. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multimodel comparison for assessing water temperatures under changing climate conditions via the equilibrium temperature concept: case study of the Middle Loire River,France

This paper investigates three categories of models that are derived from the equilibrium temperature concept to estimate water temperatures in the Loire River in France and the sensitivity to changes in hydrology and climate. We test the models' individual performances for simulating water temperatures and assess the variability of the thermal responses under the extreme changing climate scenarios that are projected for 2081–2100. We attempt to identify the most reliable models for studying the impact of climate change on river temperature (T_w). Six models are based on a linear relationship between air temperatures (T_a) and equilibrium temperatures (T_e), six depend on a logistic relationship, and six rely on the closure of heat budgets. For each category, three approaches that account for the river's thermal exchange coefficient are tested. In addition to air temperatures, an index of day length is incorporated to compute equilibrium temperatures. Each model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate the seasonal patterns of river temperatures and heat peaks. We found that including the day length as a covariate in regression‐based approaches improves the performance in comparison with classical approaches that use only T_a. Moreover, the regression‐based models that rely on the logistic relationship between T_e and T_a exhibit root mean square errors comparable (0.90 °C) with those obtained with a classical five‐term heat budget model (0.82 °C), despite a small number of required forcing variables. In contrast, the regressive models that are based on a linear relationship T_e = f(T_a) fail to simulate the heat peaks and are not advisable for climate change studies. The regression‐based approaches that are based on a logistic relationship and the heat balance approaches generate notably similar responses to the projected climate changes scenarios. This similarity suggests that sophisticated thermal models are not preferable to cruder ones, which are less time‐consuming and require fewer input data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (T_s) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long‐term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short‐term historical T_s observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (T_a) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in T_s. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The T_s models were then used to estimate temporal changes in T_s at each site using both historical estimates and future T_a projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in T_s across sites, and the relationships between T_s and T_a remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean T_s between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade^?1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in T_s from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade^?1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future T_s changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature‐sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐year water balance assessment of a newly constructed wetland,Fort McMurray,Alberta

Oil sands mining in Alberta transforms the boreal landscape of forests and wetlands into open pits, tailings ponds and overburden piles. Whereas reclamation efforts have primarily focused on upland forests, rebuilding wetland systems has recently become a motivation for research. Wetland creation and sustainability in this region is complicated by the sub‐humid climate and salinity of underlying mining material. In 2012, Syncrude Canada Ltd. completed the construction of the Sandhill Fen Watershed (SFW), a 52‐ha upland‐wetland system to evaluate wetland reclamation strategies on soft tailings. SFW includes an active pumping system, upland hummocks, a fen wetland and underdrains. To evaluate the influence of management practices on the hydrology of the system, this study reports the water balance from January 2013 to December 2014, the first 2 years after commissioning. A semi‐distributed approach was taken to examine the fluxes and stores of water in uplands and lowlands. Natural and artificial inputs and outputs were measured using a series of precipitation gauges and pumps, and evapotranspiration was quantified using three eddy covariance towers. A series of near surface wells recorded water table position. Both 2013 and 2014 were normal rainfall years, with 2013 having more and 2014 less snow than normal. In 2013, inflow/outflow from pumping was the predominant hydrological fluxes, resulting in considerable variability in water table position and storage changes throughout the summer. In 2014, the artificial addition of water was negligible, yet the water table remained near the surface in lowland locations, suggesting that wetland conditions could be maintained under current conditions. Evapotranspiration rates between uplands and lowlands were similar between years and sites, ranging from 2.2 ± 1.8 to 2.5 ± 1.2 mm/day and were largely controlled by climate. These rates were less than nearby older upland systems, suggesting that water balance partitioning will change as vegetation develops. Comparison between years and with natural systems provides insight on how management practices influence hydrologic dynamics and the overall water balance of the SFW. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaporation of perennial semi‐arid woodland in southeastern Australia is adapted for irregular but common dry periods

Measurements of water vapour flux from semi‐arid perennial woodland (mallee) were made for 3 years using eddy covariance instrumentation. There have been no previous long‐term, detailed measures of water use in this ecosystem. Latent energy flux (LE) on a half hourly basis was the measure of the combined soil and plant evaporation, ‘evapotranspiration’ (E_LE) of the site. Aggregation over 3 years of the site measured rain (1136 mm) and the estimated evaporation (794 mm) suggests that 342 mm or 30% of rain had moved into or past the root zone of the vegetation. Above average rainfall during 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 (633 mm, 15 months) would likely have been the period during which significant groundwater recharge occurred. At times immediately after rainfall, E_LE rates were the same or exceeded estimates of potential E calculated from a suitably parameterized Penman–Monteith (E_PMo) equation. Apparent free water E from plant interception and soil evaporation was about 2.3 mm and lasted for 1.3 days following rainfall in summer, while in autumn, E was 5.1 mm that lasted over 5.4 days. The leaf area index (LAI) needed to adjust a wind function calibrated Penman equation (E_PMe) to match the E_LE values could be back calculated to generate seasonal change in LAI from 0.12 to 0.46 and compared well with normalized difference vegetation index; r = 0.38 and p = 0.0213* and LAI calculated from digital cover photography. The apparently conservative response of perennial vegetation evaporation to available water in these semi‐arid environments reinforces the conclusion that these ecosystems use this mechanism to survive the reasonably common dry periods. Plant response to soil water availability is primarily through gradual changes in leaf area. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin: reference crop evaporation or Shuttleworth–Wallace?

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a key input to hydrological models. Its estimation has often been via the Penman–Monteith (P–M) equation, most recently in the form of an estimate of reference evapotranspiration (RET) as recommended by FAO‐56. In this paper the Shuttleworth–Wallace (S–W) model is implemented to estimate PET directly in a form that recognizes vegetation diversity and temporal change without reference to experimental measurements and without calibration. The threshold values of vegetation parameters are drawn from the literature based on the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme land cover classification. The spatial and temporal variation of the LAI of vegetation is derived from the composite NOAA‐AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a method based on the SiB2 model, and the Climate Research Unit database is used to provide the required meteorological data. All these data inputs are publicly and globally available. Consequently, the implementation of the S–W model developed in this study is applicable at the global scale, an essential requirement if it is to be applied in data‐poor or ungauged large basins. A comparison is made between the FAO‐56 method and the S–W model when applied to the Yellow River basin for the whole of the last century. The resulting estimates of RET and PET and their association with vegetation types and leaf area index (LAI) are examined over the whole basin both annual and monthly and at six specific points. The effect of NDVI on the PET estimate is further evaluated by replacing the monthly NDVI product with the 10‐day product. Multiple regression relationships between monthly PET, RET, LAI, and climatic variables are explored for categories of vegetation types. The estimated RET is a good climatic index that adequately reflects the temporal change and spatial distribution of climate over the basin, but the PET estimated using the S–W model not only reflects the changes in climate, but also the vegetation distribution and the development of vegetation in response to climate. Although good statistical relationships can be established between PET, RET and/or climatic variables, applying these relationships likely will result in large errors because of the strong non‐linearity and scatter between the PET and the LAI of vegetation. It is concluded that use of the implementation of the S–W model described in this study results in a physically sound estimate of PET that accounts for changing land surface conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff generation and routing on artificial slopes in a Mediterranean–continental environment: the Teruel coalfield,Spain

The aim of this study was to identify the mechanisms of runoff generation and routing and their controlling factors at the hillslope scale, on artificial slopes derived from surface coal mining reclamation in a Mediterranean–continental area. Rainfall and runoff at interrill and microcatchment scales were recorded for a year on two slopes with different substrata: topsoil cover and overburden cover. Runoff coefficient and runoff routing from interrill areas to microcatchment outlets were higher in the overburden substratum than in topsoil, and greater in the most developed rill network. Rainfall volume is the major parameter responsible for runoff response on overburden, suggesting that this substratum is very impermeable—at least during the main rainfall periods of the year (late spring and autumn) when the soil surface is sealed. In such conditions, most rainfall input is converted into runoff, regardless of its intensity. Results from artificial rainfall experiments, conducted 3 and 7 years after seeding, confirm the low infiltration capacity of overburden when sealed. The hydrological response shows great seasonal variability on the overburden slope in accordance with soil surface changes over the year. Rainfall volume and intensities (I₃₀, I₆₀) explain runoff at the interrill scale on the topsoil slope, where rainfall experiments demonstrated a typical Hortonian infiltration curve. However, no correlation was found at the microcatchment level, probably because of the loss of functionality of the only rill as ecological succession proceeded. The runoff generation mechanism on the topsoil slope is more homogeneous throughout the year. Runoff connectivity, defined as the ratio between runoff rates recorded at the rill network scale and those recorded at the interrill area scale in every rainfall event, was also greater on the rilled overburden slope, and in the most developed rill network. The dense rill networks of the overburden slope guarantee very effective runoff drainage, regardless of rainfall magnitude. Rills drain overland flow from interrill‐sealed areas, reducing the opportunity of reinfiltration in areas not affected by siltation. Runoff generation and routing on topsoil slopes are controlled by grass cover and soil moisture content, whereas on overburden slopes rill network density and soil moisture content are the main controlling factors. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Woody buffer effects on water temperature: The role of spatial configuration and daily temperature fluctuations

Water temperature is a key driver for riverine biota and strongly depends on shading by woody riparian vegetation in summer. While the general effects of shading on daily maximum water temperature T_max are well understood, knowledge gaps on the role of the spatial configuration still exist. In this study, the effect of riparian buffer length, width, and canopy cover (percentage of buffer area covered by woody vegetation) on T_max was investigated during summer baseflow using data measured in seven small lowland streams in western Germany (wetted width 0.8–3.7 m). The effect of buffer length on T_max differed between downstream cooling and heating: T_max approached cooler equilibrium conditions after a distance of 0.4 km (~45 min travel-time) downstream of a sharp increase in canopy cover. In contrast, T_max continued to rise downstream of a sharp decrease in canopy cover along the whole 1.6 km stream length investigated. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max depended on buffer width, with changes in canopy cover in a 10 m wide buffer being a better predictor for changes in T_max compared to a 30 m buffer. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max was linearly related to canopy cover but also depended on daily temperature range T_range, which itself was governed by cloudiness, upstream canopy cover, and season. The derived empirical relationship indicated that T_max was reduced by −4.6°C and increased by +2.7°C downstream of a change from unshaded to fully shaded conditions and vice versa. This maximum effect was predicted for a 10 m wide buffer at sunny days in early summer, in streams with large diel fluctuations (large T_range). Therefore, even narrow woody riparian buffers may substantially reduce the increase in T_max due to climate change, especially in small shallow headwater streams with low baseflow discharge and large daily temperature fluctuations.     

Evaluating relative sensitivity of SWAT‐simulated nitrogen discharge to projected climate and land cover changes for two watersheds in North Carolina,USA

We investigated how projected changes in land cover and climate affected simulated nitrate (NO₃^?) and organic nitrogen discharge for two watersheds within the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA, for years 2010–2070. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model to predict nitrogen discharge using (1) atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2) land cover change predicted by the Integrated Climate and Land Use Change project and (3) precipitation and temperature simulated by two statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected Global Circulation Models. We determined the sensitivity of simulated nitrogen discharge to separate changes in each treatment [(1) CO₂, (2) land cover and (3) precipitation and temperature (PT)] by comparing each treatment to a reference condition. Results showed that nitrogen discharges were most sensitive to changes in PT over the 60‐year simulation. Nitrogen discharges had similar sensitivities to the CO₂ and land cover treatments, which were only one‐tenth the influence of the PT treatment. Under the CO₂ treatment, nitrogen discharges increased with increasing ambient CO₂. NO₃^? discharge decreased with increased urbanization; however, organic nitrogen had a varied response. Under the PT treatment, there was high spatial variability in nitrogen discharges. In a single year, certain sub‐basins showed an 80% increase in nitrogen discharge relative to reference, while others showed a 400% decrease. With nitrogen discharge showing high sensitivity to PT change, we suggest that more emphasis should be placed on investigating impacts of PT on nutrient transport in the Neuse River Basin. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA     

A new approach of dynamic monitoring of 5‐day snow cover extent and snow depth based on MODIS and AMSR‐E data from Northern Xinjiang region

Taking the Northern Xinjiang region as an example, we develop a snow depth model by using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer‐Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E) horizontal and vertical polarization brightness temperature difference data of 18 and 36 GHz bands and in situ snow depth measurements from 20 climatic stations during the snow seasons November–March) of 2002–2005. This article proposes a method to produce new 5‐day snow cover and snow depth images, using Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow cover products and AMSR‐E snow water equivalent and daily brightness temperature products. The results indicate that (1) the brightness temperature difference (Tb_18h–Tb_36h) provides the most accurate and precise prediction of snow depth; (2) the snow, land and overall classification accuracies of the new images are separately 89.2%, 77.7% and 87.2% and are much better than those of AMSR‐E or MODIS products (in all weather conditions) alone; (3) the snow classification accuracy increases as snow depth increases; and (4) snow accuracies for different land cover types vary as 88%, 92.3%, 79.7% and 80.1% for cropland, grassland, shrub, and urban and built‐up, respectively. We conclude that the new 5‐day snow cover–snow depth images can provide both accurate cloud‐free snow cover extent and the snow depth dynamics, which would lay a scientific basis for water management and prevention of snow‐related disasters in this dry and cold pastoral area. After validations of the algorithms over other regions with different snow and climate conditions, this method would also be used for monitoring snow cover and snow depth elsewhere in the world. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Review Paper: A semi‐empirical model of strain sensitivity for 4D seismic interpretation

We reformulate the original model of Hatchell and Bourne and Røste, Stovas and Landrø that couples fractional velocity change to subsurface strain via a fundamental constant R. The new model combines elastic compressibility of a dual‐porosity system for a sand–shale mixture with horizontal planes of inter‐granular weakness. The majority of observed R‐factor magnitudes from post‐stack 4D seismic data in both the reservoir and overburden can thus be explained. R is predicted to depend strongly on lithology and also initial strain state. The model is also extended to predict the observed angle‐dependence of time‐lapse time‐shifts from pre‐stack data. An expression for the gradient of time‐shift with incidence angle is obtained in terms of the background V_P/V_S, and also the ratio of tangential to normal compliances B_T/B_N representing loss or creation of inter‐granular coupling. If accurately estimated from data, this compliance ratio can be used as an additional parameter to assess the post‐production state of the overburden. It is concluded that whilst R remains the over‐arching parameter controlling the magnitude of time‐shifts measured from 4D seismic data, B_T/B_N is a subtler parameter that may also prove of future value.     

Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded‐ice and floating‐ice regimes on the Arctic coastal plain,Alaska

Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? E_L) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? E_L. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.