数据深度加权半参数估计法在方差分量估计中的应用研究

针对天地基联合测控中多源异质数据存在多耦合性系统模型误差和粗差的情况,提出了基于数据深度加权半参数估计的方差分量估计法.利用半参数估计法补偿不确定性模型误差,同时构建数据深度权抑制粗差的影响,使半参数估计不受粗差的影响,为方差分量估计提供合理的权矩阵,使得方差分量估计能对存在不确定性模型误差和粗差的结构定权.进行了天地基对空间目标的联合测控仿真试验.结果表明,改进的方差分量估计法能有效补偿不确定性模型误差并抑制粗差的影响,确定更加合理的权值.     

统计定轨中随机模型的验后估计

在卫星精密定轨中,对资料的加权一般是采用经验的方法,本文采用赫尔默特（Ｈｅｌｍｅｒｔ）方差分量估计方法,对Ｌａｇｅｏｓ２卫星６个月的ＳＬＲ资料进行试算,统计了各台站的验后方差,结果表明,用验后方差估计的方法可以得到各台站大致合理的权重,而且可以检验参数配置的合理性。     

基于自适应稳健最小p范数估计的轨道确定方法研究

当测轨数据误差不服从正态分布时,传统的最小二乘(LSE)轨道确定方法将不是最优的.为了获得高精度的定轨结果,一种可行的策略是采用基于最小p范数(Lp)的轨道确定方法.通过分析Lp估计的相关性质,得出普通Lp估计不具有良好的抗差性的结论.为抑制模型误差和异常值的影响,提出了基于数据深度加权的稳健最小p范数估计方法,并证明了相关性质,得出了其崩溃点可以达到1/2的结论.最后,通过残差分析和矩估计法自适应估计相关参数,使得估计达到最大效率.以天基空间目标监视系统为背景进行了仿真试验.结果表明,当观测数据存在系统误差或异常值时,或者当目标动力学模型存在误差或者天基观测平台存在系统误差时,即使观测数据服从正态分布,LSE也不是最优的,在这种意义下自适应稳健Lp估计轨道确定方法比传统轨道确定方法更加稳健,定轨精度也更高.     

我国局部网对近地测地卫星定轨精度的估计

本文利用模拟观测资料，估计了中国卫星跟踪网对近地测地卫星定轨和测定一些跟踪站地心坐标所能达到的精度。同时分析了近地卫星定轨的主要误差源，如大气模型、地球引力场模型的不确定性和跟踪网站坐标的误差等所产生的影响。     

LP估计在星载GPS运动学定轨中的应用及精度分析

为得到高精度的星载GPS运动学定轨,必须利用观测精度高的相位观测值,但是相位观测值预处理后,仍然存在残余小周跳．在残差服从正态分布情况下LS法是最佳参数解算方法,但该方法不能解决资料的系统误差消除问题,LP估计是处理资料残差分布含有系统误差的有效方法之一．基于LS、LP方法的有效条件和GPS数据预处理的特性,将LP估计方法引入星载GPS运动学定轨数据处理中,以CHAMP卫星资料为例,研究了LP估计在星载GPS运动学定轨中的应用及其精度分析．实践表明:在处理含有残余小周跳的相位观测值时,LP估计比LS更有效,提高了星载GPS运动学定轨精度,但随着残余周跳的进一步修复,LP估计相对于LS估计的优越性越来越弱,在资料完全没有系统误差,残差服从正态分布的情况下,LP估计不能很好地体现其优越性,精度反而低于LS估计．     

抗差估计在星载GPS卫星非差运动学定轨中的应用

针对星载GPS卫星非差运动学定轨的特点,提出将抗差估计应用于星载GPS卫星运动学定轨,一方面尽量保留来自每颗GPS卫星的观测值,保持较强的卫星几何强度,避免轨道求解出现奇异;另一方面,采用等价权思想,有效地降低质量较差的观测值对定轨结果的影响,保证定轨精度．还采用CHAMP卫星的实测GPS数据验证了新方案的可行性和有效性．     

两种观测技术综合精密定轨的探讨

利用T／P卫星的SLR和DORIS实测资料,对两种观测技术综合精密定轨中的加权及其对定轨影响的问题作了初步的探讨。根据所提出的一种经验性的加权方法进行了综合定轨计算,结果表明：对于两种不同技术的观测,相对权选取的恰当与否将影响综合定轨的精度;综合定轨的最优加权不仅依赖于观测资料的精度,还与观测资料的多少和几何分布有关;通过选用最优加权,可使得综合轨的精度优于仅用其中一种技术的定轨精度,综合定轨能有效地提高定轨精度。     

双星定位系统中的几何方法定轨

主要介绍了对一种特殊观测类型（双星定位系统中）的几何定轨方法,该方法将观测中遇到的超越方程组简化成一个线性方程组和一个一元二次方程,然后进行解算,通过一个模拟的双星系统和一组模拟的观测值进行试算的结果表明,如果无测量误差时,对该系统用几何方法定轨的精度可以好于2m,但是当该系统的几何图形较差时,几何定轨方法对测量误差较为敏感,若测量的随机误差为10m,则定轨坐标分量的误差最大可达到400m。这时可利用三阶契比雪夫多项式平滑的方法削弱随拳影响,将几何方法定轨的精度提高到40m。     

方差分量估计方法在ERS—2卫星精密定轨中的应用

将方差分量估计（VCE）方法应用于ERS－2卫星的精密定轨,用SLR和PRARE资料计算了1998年前3个月的23个长度为5天的弧段（除了调整轨道的时段外,相邻弧段有两天的重叠）,从观测值残差分析和重叠弧段比较两个方面,考察VCE方法对定轨计算的影响,并给出了各组观测值的平均验后均方差,对观测值残差的分析表明,使用VCE方法明显地改善了观测值的拟合程度,但从阿卑（Abbey)标准对观测值残差的检验结果来看,使用VCE方法不能消除轨道中由力学模型和几何模型误差引入的系统差,重叠弧段比较的结果表明：（1）使用VCE方法缩小了重叠弧段的平均距离差,并改善了一部分权段明显不合理的偏离,使最后得到的轨道具有更均匀的精度,（2）相比较而言,VCE方法使相邻弧段靠拢的趋势在轨道切向体现得较为明显,由各组观测值的平均验后方差可见,说单个标准点观测值而言,部分SLR台站的观测资料在定轨计算中占有比其他观测资料更重的地位,纵观全文,使用VCE后得到的观测值的平衡验后均方差来确定资料的双重将比使用均方差更为合理。     

卫星轨道确定模型误差的深度加权核估计方法

卫星动力学模型误差是客观存在的事实,动力学模型误差传递到轨道确定算法中构成部分形式未知的模型误差,并且与测量系统自身的系统误差和随机误差耦合在一起形成定轨模型误差,严重影响轨道确定精度.详细推导了存在动力学模型误差的轨道改进方程,对模型中能准确描述的部分建立了参数化模型,对不能准确描述的误差部分,建立了非参数模型.构建了部分线性轨道改进模型,利用二阶段估计法和核函数估计法对模型误差进行拟合估计,并在轨道改进中予以补偿.根据数据深度理论,建立了非参数模型误差的深度加权核估计方法,提高了模型误差估计的抗差性.最后结合天基空间目标监视系统进行了轨道确定仿真实验.实验结果表明,模型误差是影响轨道确定精度的重要因素,核函数估计法可以有效估计定轨中的模型误差,窗宽是提高模型估计精度的重要变量,通过深度加权处理可以明显提高核函数估计的抗差性,提高轨道确定精度.     

Instructions for authors

正Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics publishes original research papers and reviews on all branches of astronomy and astrophysics.Reviews are by invitation only.Important new results that require rapid publication can be submitted as a Letter(Letters must be restricted in length to 6 printed pages).Authors who submit a paper are expected to be able to certify that the paper is original work,     

Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics CONTENTS

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Instructions for authors

正Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics publishes original research papers and reviews 011 all liranchcs of astronoiriy and astrophysics.Reviews arc by invitation only.Important new results that require rapid publication can be submitted as a Letter(Letters must be restricted in length     

Alkali and halogen chemistry in volcanic gases on Io

We use chemical equilibrium calculations to model the speciation of alkalis and halogens in volcanic gases emitted on Io. The calculations cover wide temperature (500-2000 K) and pressure (10⁻⁶ to 10⁺¹ bars) ranges, which overlap the nominal conditions at Pele (T=1760 K, P=0.01 bars). About 230 compounds of 11 elements (O, S, Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, F, Cl, Br, I) are considered. The elemental abundances for O, S, Na, K, and Cl are based upon observations. CI chondritic elemental abundances relative to sulfur are used for the other alkalis and halogens (as yet unobserved on Io). We predict the major alkali species in Pele-like volcanic gases and the percentage distribution of each alkali are LiCl (73%), LiF (27%); NaCl (81%), Na (16%), NaF (3%); KCl (91%), K (5%), KF (4%); RbCl (93%), Rb (4%), RbF (3%); CsCl (92%), CsF (6%), Cs (2%). Likewise the major halogen species and the percentage distribution of each halogen are NaF (88%), KF (10%), LiF (2%); NaCl (89%), KCl (11%); NaBr (89%), KBr (10%), Br (1%); NaI (61%), I (30%), KI (9%). We predict the major halogen condensates and their condensation temperatures at P=0.01 bar are NaF (1115 K), LiF (970 K); NaCl (1050 K), KCl (950 K); KBr (750 K), RbBr (730 K), CsBr (645 K); and solid I₂ (200 K). We also model disequilibrium chemistry of the alkalis and halogens in the volcanic plume. Based on this work and our prior modeling for Na, K, and Cl in a volcanic plume, we predict the major loss processes for the alkali halide gases are photolysis and/or condensation onto grains. Their estimated photochemical lifetimes range from a few minutes for alkali iodides to a few hours for alkali fluorides. Condensation is apparently the only loss process for elemental iodine. On the basis of elemental abundances and photochemical lifetimes, we recommend searching for gaseous KCl, NaF, LiF, LiCl, RbF, RbCl, CsF, and CsCl around volcanic vents during eruptions. Based on abundance considerations and observations of brown dwarfs we also recommend a search of Io's extended atmosphere and the Io plasma torus for neutral and ionized Li, Cs, Rb, and F.     

Study on the Stressed Mirror Polishing with a Continuous Polishing Machine for Large Aperture Off-axis Aspheric Mirrors

A special stressed annular polishing technique is proposed to mill the off-axis aspheric sub-mirrors of a large segmented mirror with an annular polishing machine. Based on the basic principle of stressed annular polishing technique, a set of special stressing mechanisms are designed to convert milling the aspheric surfaces of sub-mirrors with different off-axis distances into milling the spherical surfaces with identical radii of curvature, so that they can be pol- ished simultaneously on a continuous polishing machine. It took about contin- uous 40 hours to polish a scaled-down mirror of the planning Chinese Future Giant Telescope (CFGT) using this technique. This mirror has the 330 mm di- ameter, 3.6 m off-axis distance, and the 21.6 m radius of curvature, and its max- imum asphericity is 16 micron. The experiment shows that this method has a high effciency, suits batch manufacturing, especially the batch manufacturing of aspheric sub-mirrors of the segmented primary mirror of an extremely large aperture telescope.     

The climatic and physiographic controls of the eastern Mediterranean over the late Pleistocene climates in the southern Levant and its neighboring deserts

Modern-day synoptic-scale eastern Mediterranean climatology provides a useful context to synthesize the diverse late Pleistocene (60–12 ka) paleohydrologic and paleoenvironmental indicators of past climatic conditions in the Levant and the deserts to its south and east. We first critically evaluate, extract, and summarize paleoenvironmental and paleohydrologic records. Then, we propose a framework of eastern Mediterranean atmospheric circulation features interacting with the morphology and location of the southeast Mediterranean coast. Together they strongly control the spatial distribution of rainfall and wind pattern. This cyclone–physiography interaction enforces the observed rainfall patterns by hampering rainfall generation south and southeast of the latitude of the north Sinai coast, currently at 31°15′.The proposed framework explains the much-increased rains in Lebanon and northern Israel and Jordan as deduced from pollen, rise and maintenance of Lake Lisan, and speleothem formation in areas currently arid and semiarid. The proposed framework also accounts for the southward and eastward transition into semiarid, arid, and hyperarid deserts as expressed in thick loess accumulation at the deserts' margins, dune migration from west to east in the Sinai and the western Negev, and the formation of hyperarid (< 80 mm yr^− 1) gypsic–salic soils in the southern Negev and Sinai. Our climatic synthesis explains the hyperarid condition in the southern Negev, located only 200–250 km south of the much-increased rains in the north, probably reflecting a steeper rainfall gradient than the present-day gradient from the wetter Levant into its bordering southern and eastern deserts.At present, the rainiest winter seasons in Lebanon and northern and central Israel are associated with more frequent (+ 20%), deeper Cyprus Lows traversing the eastern Mediterranean at approximately the latitude of southern Turkey. Even these wettest years in northern Israel do not yield above average annual rainfall amounts in the hyperarid southern Negev. This region is mainly influenced by the Active Red Sea Troughs that produce only localized rains. The eastern Mediterranean Cyprus Lows also produce more dust storms and transport higher amounts of suspended dust to the loess area than any other atmospheric pattern. Concurrent rainfall and dust are essential to the late Pleistocene formation of the elongated thick loess zone along the desert northern margin. Even with existing dust storms, the lack of rain and very sparse vegetation account for the absence of late Pleistocene loess sequences from the southern Negev and the formation of hyperarid soils.When the north Sinai coast shifted 30–70 km northwest due to last glacial global sea level lowering, the newly exposed coastal areas supplied the sand and dust to these active eastern Mediterranean cyclones. This enforced the latitude of the northern boundary of the loess zone to be directly due east of the LGM shoreline. This shift of coast to the northwest inhibited rainfall in the southern Levant deserts and maintained their hyperaridity. Concurrently, frequent deep eastern Mediterranean Cyprus Lows were funneled along the northern Mediterranean increasing (probably doubling) the rains in central and northern Israel, Lebanon, southwestern Syria and northern Jordan. These storms and rains formed lakes, forests, and speleothems only a short distance north of the deserts in the southern Levant.     

Active hot star shells

Interferometry in the visible provides milliarcsecond spatial resolution and thus has been used for studying the circumstellar environment of active hot stars. In this paper I will illustrate how the visibility modulus and phase can be used to better constrain the physics of Be disks through results from the VLA, the MkII and the GI2T interferometers. I will insist on the importance and the potential of coupling high angular resolution with high spectral resolution to the study of Be shells. Finally I will present a possible study of the circumstellar disk of Be stars using the VLTI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fitting X-ray Afterglow Light curves of Gamma-ray Bursts by Using the Magnetar Energy Injection Model

The central compact object for some gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) may be a strongly magnetized millisecond pulsar. It can inject energy to the outer shock of the GRB by through the magnetic dipole radiation, and therefore causes the shallow decay of the early afterglow. Recently, from a large number of GRB X-ray afterglows observed by Swift/XRT(X-ray telescope), it is revealed that many of them exhibit the shallow decay about 10²∼10⁴ s after the burst prompt emission. We have fitted the X-ray afterglow light curves of 11 GRBs by using the energy injection model of a magnetar with the rotation period in the millisecond order of magnitude. The obtained result shows the validity and universality of the magnetar energy injection model in explaining the shallow decay of afterglows, and simultaneously provides some constraints on the magnetic field strength and rotation period of the central magnetar.     

我国新一代VLBI数字基带转换器研制进展

数字化是目前设备研制发展的趋势,介绍了中国科学院上海天文台利用超大规模集成电路结合软件无线电技术,自主研发的我国新一代VLBI数字基带转换器(Chinese Data Acquisition System,简称CDAS).文中描述了设备的工作原理及其组成,并以VLBI观测实验数据证明其可行性.与原有的模拟设备(Anal...