Spatiotemporal variations of aridity index over the Belt and Road region under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Aridity index reflects the exchanges of energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere, and its variation can be used to forecast drought and flood...     

Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950–2050

This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.     

Research on the Patterns and Evolution of Ecosystem Service Consumption in the “Belt and Road”

With great significance in ecosystem protection and sustainable development, the study of ecosystem service consumption (ESC) has become a hot topic in ecological research. Based on FAOSTAT data, in this study the patterns, composition and evolution of ESC and ecosystem service consumption patterns (ESCP) in the “Belt and Road” were revealed on the total and regional scales, taking consumed-biomass as a main indicator. Three main conclusions were reached. 1) The total ESC was mainly contributed from farmland ecosystems along the “Belt and Road” , followed by grassland ecosystems. The ESC indicators on the whole system scale fluctuated, but increased from year 2000 to year 2016. The total ESC increased from 12911.89 Tg yr ^-1 to 16810.00 Tg yr ^-1, and the annual per capita consumption of ecosystem services increased from 3.3228 million g p ^-1 yr ^-1 to 3.6392 million g p ^-1 yr ^-1. 2) The ESC, composition and evolution varied significantly among countries, zones and ecosystems. The annual per capita ESC was highest in Mongolia on the national scale, and highest in Central and Eastern Europe and lowest in Southeast Asia on zone scale, which represented the results from the joint effects of regional resource endowments, consumption habits, levels of productive forces, and other factors. 3) Higher farmland ESC was the dominant ESCP, which accounted for about 76.7% of the total area along the “Belt and Road”, followed by higher farmland + higher grassland ESC, which accounted for about 19.0% of the total area. The other consumption patterns (i.e., those of higher grassland ESC, higher forestland ESC or higher farmland + higher forest + higher grassland ESC) were found in only a few countries. The ESCP may be related to higher regional population density or the higher proportions of developing countries. Therefore, to realize sustainable social, economic and ecological development, and to improve people's well-being, countries along the “Belt and Road” should take advantage of their own resources in developing industries, actively expand trade, achieve mutual benefits and win-win situations, and adjust and optimize consumption patterns of ecosystem services. This study can provide data support for further research on the mechanism of ESCP formation this area.     

China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Support of the Resourcing Future Generations Program

The Resourcing Future Generations (RFG) program is a global strategy proposed by the International Union of Geological Sciences to meet global demand for natural resources. The Belt and Road (B&R) initiative of China provides a great opportunity for promoting the RFG across much of the Eurasian continent. The countries covered by the B&R initiative are mostly low-income economies. With rapid developments of economy and infrastructure construction, these countries are set to have huge demands for mineral resources in the future. However, the proven mineral reserves in this region are too limited, and the region’s overall level of metal recycling is far from optimistic. These countries are expected to have obstacles in meeting future demands. However, the regional Tethyan metallogenic domain and Central Asia metallogenic district are key areas for new discoveries of mineral resources, possessing a variety of mineral resources with a positive prospecting potential. The B&R initiative of China provides favorable opportunity for mutual beneficial cooperation to improve regional exploration and prospecting through geological mapping, inter-comparison study on Tethyan metallogenic domain, joint assessment of mineral resource potentials, joint training of geological engineers and workers and building information systems.     

Spatiotemporal variations of maximum seasonal freeze depth in 1950s–2007 over the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Investigation on spatiotemporal variations of maximum seasonal freeze depth （MSFD） over the Heihe River Basin is of great importance for systematic understanding of regional climate and environmental change, ecological-hydrological processes, water resources assessment, construction and resource development. Based on soil and air temperatures at the meteorological stations of the China Meteorological Administration （CMA） over the Heihe River Basin, MSFDs time series are structured into a composite time series over the 1960-2007 period. Evaluating the averaged MSFD time series for 1960 2007 reveals a statistically significant trend of 4.0 cm/decade or a net change of-19.2 cm for the 48-year period over the basin. The MSFD had significantly negative correlation with mean annual air temperature （MAAT）, winter air temperature, mean annual ground surface temperature （MAGST）, degree days of thawing for the air （DDTa） as well as for the surface （DDTs）, and degree days of freezing for the surface （DDFs）. While there was significantly positive correlation between DDF,. and MSFD time series, MSFD was deeper and changed greatly in the Heihe River source area. It was shallower in the east-central basin and gradually deepened in other sections of the basin. The MSFD distribution pattern in 2003-2005 is consistent with that of averaged degree days of freezing for air （DDFa） in 1960-2007. However, the maximum of MSFD may not be accurate, because there is no long term observation data in the deep seasonally frozen ground regions near the lower boundary of permafrost. With increasing elevation, averaged DDFa increased at a rate of 51.6 ℃-day/100m, therefore, the MSFG and the date reaching MSFG became deeper and later, respectively.     

Characteristics of Agricultural and Livestock Products Trade Flows between China and the “Belt and Road” Initiative Region: From the Perspective of Biocapacity

In the context of global ecological overload, international trade has become one of the most important ways to make up for the ecological deficit. This study takes the “Belt and Road” Initiative as the study area to analyze the biocapacity and ecological footprint characteristics between China and other countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Trade flow characteristics were explored from the perspective of biocapacity. The import and export of virtual land was used to assess the effect of trade on compensating for the resource gaps in crop and grazing land. The main results show that: 1) In 2005-2014, the majority of “Belt and Road” countries were experiencing increasing degrees of overload. In China, cropland takes up the largest proportion of biocapacity, while the ecological footprint is dominated by the carbon footprint. 2) The trade flow of agricultural and livestock products in the mainland of China shows a trend of increasing imports and decreasing exports, which increases dependence on specific regions. 3) In 2005-2014, China’s trade in cereals and oil crops along the “Belt and Road” Initiative were generally net imports, and the share of cereals traded along the “Belt and Road” Initiative is increasing gradually, but that of oil crops decreased rapidly. 4) The import trade has alleviated ecological deficit, as the selected products compensated for 1.03 times of the cropland deficit and 0.65 times of the grazing land deficit in China. This study is helpful to understand the relationship between the land use and trade deeply, and provide decision-making references for reducing ecological deficits, optimizing land resource allocation, and promoting win-win cooperation among China and other countries in the “Belt and Road” Initiative.     

The poverty evolution of typical countries along the Belt and Road and implications from China’s poverty reduction experiences

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The world is facing a poverty crisis. Despite the great achievements that have been made in poverty alleviation over the past two decades, the extent of poverty...     

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative Countries based on Virtual Water Theory

Most countries along the route of the “Belt and Road” initiative are faced with a shortage of water resources. However, successful implementation of the initiative depends on water availability to support economic and social development. We designed a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system, assigned grades and weights to each evaluation index and calculated a water resources carrying index for the 65 countries along the route. We used virtual water theory to analyze China’s net virtual water import from key bulk agricultural products through international trade. For more than half of the countries along the route, their water resources will be unable to support the economic development that will be necessary for fulfilling the goals of the Initiative. As a country with insufficient water resources carrying capacity, China is a net virtual water importer in the virtual water trade. This virtual water trade can improve China’s water resources support capacity, and ensure China’s water and food security for the future.     

High leaf area index expands the contrasting effect of climate warming on Western Siberia taiga forests activity before and after 2000

The taiga vegetation in Western Siberia has been seriously threatened by climate warming in recent decades. However, how vegetation in different growing states and climate conditions responds to climate changes differently is still unclear. Here we explore the vegetation activity trends in Western Siberia taiga forests using the annual rate of change in leaf area index(LAI) during 1982–2018 so as to answer two questions:(1) how did climate warming affect taiga vegetation activity in the recent l...     

Spatial distribution and influencing factors of Surface Nibble Degree index in the severe gully erosion region of China’s Loess Plateau

In China's Loess Plateau severe gully erosion(LPGE)region,the shoulder-line is the most intuitive and unique manifestation of the loess landform,which divides a landform into positive and negative terrains(PNTs).The spatial combination model of PNTs is of great significance for revealing the evolution of the loess landform.This study modeled and pro-posed the Surface Nibble Degree(SND),which is a new index that reflects the comparison of the areas of PNTs.Based on 5 m DEMs and matched high-resolution remote sensing images,the PNTs of 164 complete watersheds in the LPGE were extracted accurately,and the SND index was calculated.The spatial distribution trend of SND was discussed,and the relation-ship between SND and the factors that affect the evolution mechanism of regional landform was explored further.Results show that:(1)The SND can be calculated formally.It can quantify the development of the loess landform well.(2)The SND of the LPGE has evident spatial differentiation that increases from southwest to northeast.High values appear in Shenmu of Shaanxi,Shilou of Shanxi,and northern Yanhe River,whereas the low values are mainly distributed in the southern loess tableland and the inclined elongated ridge area of Pingliang in Gansu and Guyuan in Ningxia.(3)In the Wuding River and Yanhe River,the SND decreases with the increase in flow length(FL).In the North-Luohe River and Jinghe River,the SND increases with FL.(4)SND is significantly correlated with gully density and sediment modulus and moderately correlated with hypsometric integral.As for the mechanism factors analysis,the relationship between loess thickness and SND is not obvious,but SND in-creased first and then decreased with the increase of precipitation and vegetation in each geographical division,and we found that the land use type of low coverage grassland has greater erosion potential.