"十五"时期环渤海城市群经济联系分析

环渤海城市群是中国北方重要的经济增长区域,未来发展前景十分广阔,分析"十五"时期环渤海城市群经济联系的动态变化规律必将为"十一五"乃至更长一段时期环渤海城市群空间经济联系产生"抛砖引玉"的功效。选取"十五"时期环渤海地区京津冀、辽中南、山东半岛共28座城市的市区从业人员、GDP、人均GDP等指标,利用城市流强度等模型测度了三大城市群内部经济联系强度,并与长三角、珠三角共25座城市相比较。结果表明:京津冀城市群经济联系强度居环渤海地区首位,辽中南次之,山东半岛位居最后;"十五"期末与期初相比,京津冀、辽中南的经济联系强度均呈上升态势,其中,尤以京津冀上升幅度最大,而山东半岛则出现了明显的下降;与长三角、珠三角相比,京津冀经济联系强度虽弱于长三角,但略强于珠三角,而辽中南、山东半岛与长三角、珠三角的差距则更为显著。     

1980～2017年环渤海海岸线和围填海时空演变及其影响机制

运用3S技术,采用水体指数法（MNDWI）、分形维数法、土地利用转移矩阵和回归分析等方法,以环渤海海岸带1980、1985、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2017年9个时期TM遥感影像为主数据源,研究近40 a围填海活动影响下的环渤海海岸线动态演变特征。结果表明：1980~2017年环渤海海岸线增加了1 159.9 km,分形维数持续增加,岸线呈曲折化。其中,人工岸线增长了1 977.9 km,自然岸线减少了80%。重点变化区域包括黄河三角洲及莱州湾、渤海湾、辽东湾顶部、普兰店湾等地区。1980~2017年环渤海围填海的面积增加了1 988.5 km ²。主要类型由养殖池、盐田及农用地向养殖池、盐田、建筑用地转化。围填海活动与岸线长度、属性变化呈显著线性关系。综上,水产养殖、围海晒盐、农田开垦、工业化和城镇化建设等围填海活动影响了岸线长度及属性等特征的变化。     

Land use change in Bohai Rim: a spatialtemporal analysis

Based on RS and GIS methods, land use information for 1985 and 1995 was acquired from TM images and analyzed. Then on both spatial and temporal aspects, this paper analyzes land use change in three provinces of Hebei, Shandong and Liaoning and two municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin in the Bohai Rim covering the period of 1985 to 1995. The extent, rate, areal difference and trend of various types of land use changes in the region, as well as spatial changes of major types of land use, their distribution characteristics and regional orientation are revealed. The regional characteristics of land use are elaborated, so as to provide effective policy support for sustainable land use in the area around the Bohai Bay.     

Land use change in Bohai Rim: a spatial-temporal analysis

Land use change is one of the important aspects of global change[1-3]. The Bohai Rim is a hot spot of economic development in China, where land use changes remarkably. Analyzing land use change in this area is significant to the research of global change and regional sustainable land use. Although there has been much work undertaken on regional land use change in China, it was mainly on urban land use change[4-11], and few researches integrated remote sensing and GIS method. Based on data f…     

环渤海地区区域承载力研究

环渤海地区目前资源环境负菏已处于过载状态，成为制约今后全区经济社会发展的主要限制性因素，从实施可持续发展战略出发，采用定量方法研究该区的资源环境综合承载力，并对其今后变化的趋势进行了预测，提出提高区域承载力的对策措施。     

Spatio-temporal patterns of land use change along the Bohai Rim in China during 1985–2005

Based on TM image data and other survey materials, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change in the Bohai Rim during 1985–2005. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) Land use pattern changed dramatically during 1985–2005. Industrial and residential land in urban and rural areas increased by 643,946 hm2, of which urban construction land had the largest and fastest increase of 294,953 hm2 at an annual rate of 3.72%. (2) The outward migration of rural population did not prevent the expansion of residential land in rural areas by 184,869 hm2. This increase reveals that construction of rural residences makes seriously wasteful and inefficient use of land. (3) Arable land, woodland and grassland decreased at a rate of –0.02%, –0.12% and –1.32% annually, while unused land shrank by 157,444 hm2 at an annual rate of –1.69%. (4) The change of land use types showed marked fluctuations over the two stages (1985–1995 and 1995–2005). In particular, arable land, woodland and unused land experienced an inversed trend of change. (5) There was a significant interaction between arable land and woodland. Industrial construction land in urban and rural areas showed a net trend of increase during the earlier period, but only adjustment to its internal structure during the second period. The loss of arable land to the construction of factories, mines and residences took place mainly in the fringe areas of large and medium-sized cities, along the routes of major roads, as well as in the economically developed coastal areas in the east. Such changes are closely related to the spatial differentiation of the level of urbanization and industrialization in the region.     

环渤海地区文化产业结构趋同合意性研究

运用产业结构相似系数,对环渤海地区五省份的文化产业结构进行静态和动态分析,明确环渤海地区文化产业结构是否趋同以及趋同的程度,在此基础上,进一步利用偏离-份额法对环渤海地区的产业结构趋同是否合意进行判定。结果表明:环渤海地区五省份存在不同程度的文化产业结构趋同,以全国为基准,河北的产业结构相似系数较低,北京最高,表明北京与全国的文化产业结构最为相似。从文化产业结构趋同合意性来看,山东的经济增长份额、结构偏离份额、竞争偏离份额均表现为正值,因此,山东的文化产业结构为合意性趋同,而北京、天津、辽宁、河北的文化产业结构为非合意性趋同。     

Process and cause of urban-rural development transformation in the Bohai Rim Region,China

China＇s reform and opening-up policy has brought the country a great development opportunity. The high-speed growth of the economy not only led China to a period of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization, but also exacerbated the situation of the urban–rural dual structure. Based on the review of current studies, we first used the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） method to evaluate the urban–rural development and transformation level by population transformation index, land transformation index, industrial transformation index and social transformation index between 1996 and 2012 around the Bohai Rim Region. Then, based on the results of each index, we used the exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA） method to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of the change in the urban–rural development transformation index during the 16-year period using Global Moran＇s I index and Local Moran＇s I index. Finally, we investigated the mechanism of change of the urban–rural development transformation index at county level, summarizing five main factors：（1） the radiation from the surrounding big cities,（2） the acceleration of the urbanization process,（3） the upgrading of the industrial structure,（4） the publishing and implementation of a macro development strategy and regional policy, and（5） natural factors such as topology.     

环渤海地区土地利用变化的驱动力分析

1985到1995年间,环渤海地区占总面积30%的土地发生了利用方式的变化,耕地变化是其核心类型。耕地变化的主要流向依次为农村居住用地、林草地、城市居住建设用地以及果园和水域。本文通过对耕地流向及其与人口变化、农业经济发展的关系等进行分析,确认土地管理政策、人均居住用地的增长、农业生产结构调整以及城市扩张是该区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素     

典型相关分析在土地利用结构研究中的应用——以环渤海地区为例

典型相关分析是一种揭示两组多元随机变量之间相关关系的统计模型方法。本文通过介绍这一多元统计方法的内涵、特点和思路,将其引入有关地学问题的分析———判别土地利用类型分布与其影响因子之间的相关关系。以环渤海地区为例,通过数据准备、操作过程和统计检验等几个方面,全面介绍了典型相关分析在实际研究中的应用