A semi-empirical wind set-up forecasting model for Lake Champlain

The precision of Lake Champlain's water level estimation is a key component in the flood forecasting process for the Richelieu River. Hydrological models do not typically take into consideration the effects of the wind on the water level (also known as the wind set-up). The objective of this study is to create an empirical wind set-up forecast model for Lake Champlain during high wind events. The proposed model uses wind speed and direction across the Lake, as well as wind gusts as inputs. The model is calibrated to a subset of observations and evaluated on an independent sample, considering four wind speed bins. It is tested and compared to a variant of the Zuider Zee equation on 20 wind set-up events that occurred between 2017 and 2019 using hindcast data from five different numerical weather prediction systems (GDPS, RDPS, HRDPS, NOAA and ECMWF). A quantile mapping-based forecast calibration scheme is implemented for each of the forecast products to correct their biases. Results show that events are successfully predicted by the proposed model at least 72 h in advance. These results are better than the other comparative models found in the literature and tested herein. Overall, significant improvements are obtained by including wind speed and wind gusts from different weather stations.     

A novel approach to the quantitative interpretation of petrophysical parameters using nano-CT: example of Paleozoic carbonates

The main goal was the analysis of parameters describing the structure of the pore space of carbonate rocks, based on tomographic images. The results of CT images interpretation, made for 17 samples of Paleozoic carbonate rocks were shown. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of a pore system was performed. Objects were clustered according to the pore size. Within the clusters, the geometry parameters were analysed. The following dependences were obtained for carbonate rocks, also for individual clusters (due to the volume): (1) a linear relationship (on a bilogarithmic scale) between the specific surface and the Feret diameter and (2) a strong linear relationship between specific surface area and Feret diameter and average diameter of the objects calculated for the sphere. The results were then combined with available results from standard laboratory tests, including NMR and MICP.     

The high-latitude thermospheric mass density anomaly: A historical review and a semi-empirical model

Recent measurements by the accelerometer on the CHAMP Satellite have confirmed that there are prominent dayside density enhancements at high latitudes at all times. The magnetosphere is the source of the energy which produces these density features. We present a historical review of the observations and a semi-empirical global model which reproduces the observed density increases during geomagnetically quiet times. The parameters in the model were determined over 30 years ago. There is now the opportunity to improve those parameters by using densities measured by the modern accelerometers, as well as by using the latest improvements in describing the UV radiation and the semi-annual density variation. Recent progress in determining physical drag coefficients can enable the model to provide absolute densities.     

New petrophysical model describing the pressure dependence of seismic velocity

Seismic data are increasingly applied to predict the characteristics of reservoirs, as their quality improves. Since the change of pressure is a major component in exploitation of reservoirs, a thorough understanding of the influence of pressure on seismic velocity is also important. In this study we introduce the first results of the developed petrophysical model which describes the pressure dependence of seismic velocity. The model is based on the idea that microcracks in rocks open and close under the change of pressure. Laboratory measurements are presented on several sandstone samples. Longitudinal wave velocities were measured at various incremental pressures increased from 0 to 20 MPa. During the measurements, the pulse transmission technique was used and the parameters of the model were determined by using a linearized inversion method. The inversion results proved that the proposed petrophysical model well applies in practice.     

岩石物理的理论模拟和数值实验新方法

当代物理实验科学和计算机科学技术的巨大进步为岩石物理的理论和实验研究开辟了新的领域.在细胞自动机基础上发展起来的格子气自动机和格子玻尔滋曼方法就是这种技术进步的产物.本文讨论了格子气自动机的发展及其应用于研究多孔岩石微观孔隙结构对宏观导电特性影响的新方法. 我们开发的模拟多孔岩石导电特性的数值实验新方法，提供了一种可深入到从微观孔隙结构这个尺度上来考察具有复杂孔隙结构的，孔隙度小于10%的低孔、低渗岩石的宏观导电特性及其影响因素.研究表明:Archie 系数m,n并不是传统上的意义，研究各种不同条件下F-、I-Sw关系，结果显示非阿尔奇现象与孔隙介质中孔隙、骨架和流体的混合导电网络有关，得出新的饱和度计算公式.同时还研究了泥质含量和分布、电阻率各向异性对宏观导电特性的影响，提出适用于电阻率各向异性地层的F-、I-Sw的关系.本文最后探讨了应用格子气自动机和格子玻尔滋曼方法进行岩心渗流和核磁共振数值实验的新方法及其发展前景.     

A semi-empirical approach to model pressure dependence of elastic moduli in granular media accounting for variations of coordination-number and Poisson-ratio

The effective medium theory based on the Hertz–Mindlin contact law is the most popular theory to relate dynamic elastic moduli (or elastic velocities) and confining pressure in dry granular media. However, many experimental results proved that the effective medium theory predicts pressure trends lower than experimental ones and over-predicts the shear modulus. To mitigate these mispredictions, several evolutions of the effective medium theory have been presented in the literature. Among these, the model named modified grain contact theory is an empirical approach in which three parametric curves are included in the effective medium theory model. Fitting the parameters of these curves permits to adjust the pressure trends of the Poisson ratio and the bulk modulus. In this paper, we present two variations of the modified grain contact theory model. First, we propose a minor modification in the fitting function for the porosity dependence of the calibration parameters that accounts for non-linearity in the vicinity of the critical porosity. Second, we propose a major modification that reduces the three-step modified grain contact theory model to a two-step model, by skipping the calibration parameter–porosity fit in the model and directly modelling the calibration parameter–pressure relation. In addition to an increased simplicity (the fitting parameters are reduced from 10 to 6), avoiding the porosity fit permits us to apply the model to laboratory data that are not provided with accurate porosity measurements. For this second model, we also estimate the uncertainty of the fitting parameters and the elastic velocities. We tested this model on dry core measurements from literature and we verified that it returns elastic velocity trends as good as the original modified grain contact theory model with a reduced number of fitting parameters. Possible developments of the new model to add predictive power are also discussed.     

A semi-empirical formula for evaluating residual strain of soils under earthquake loading

A new semi-empirical formula for evaluating the residual strain of soils under earthquake loading is presented in this paper based on the incremental method and the increment model proposed by the authors. When the incident loading is uniform, the results calculated by the new formula are nearly the same as those by the existing formula. For excitation of the random earthquake loading, the results calculated by the new formula are compared to the results obtained by dynamic triaxial tests. The dynamic triaxial tests had been performed considering different seismic waves, confining stresses,consolidation ratios, and types of cohesive soils. The comparison between the calculated and tested results indicate that the presented formula can efficiently and practically describe the time-dependent process of the soil residual strains under actual seismic loads.     

带先验约束的碎屑岩储层物性参数反演方法

对弹性参数进行转换而获取物性参数的方法,适用范围有限且预测精度不高.本文基于岩石物理理论,提出一种带先验约束的碎屑岩储层物性参数预测方法,为储层预测、流体识别、储层描述、储量估计、烃类开发方案设计提供重要参数.应用岩石物理理论和物性参数先验信息建立了带先验约束的目标函数;并利用最优化方法对反演目标函数进行优化求解,对储层的物性及孔隙度和泥质含量进行同步迭代反演.经过正演数据及实际地震资料的测试应用,其结果表明本文方法反演得到的孔隙度和泥质含量为储层综合预测提供了愈加丰富的评价指标,同时孔隙度和泥质含量数据的联合应用对减小储层预测的多解性和降低勘探开发的风险有重要意义.     

A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies

Abstract

A hydrological drought magnitude (M _T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M _T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M _T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L _T ), as well as the mean drought duration (L_m ), in a characteristic drought length (L_c ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M _T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M _T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569.     

岩石物理驱动的储层物性参数非线性地震反演方法

叠前地震反演和岩石物理反演分别是获取弹性参数和物性参数的重要手段, 两者结合有助于实现储层参数预测并精细刻画储层特征.储层物性参数的反演依赖于岩石物理模型, 在进行物性参数反演时可以将复杂的岩石物理模型做泰勒展开, 进而得到其一阶或高阶的近似表达式, 然而这会降低模型的精确性并增加反演的误差.为了提高储层物性参数反演的稳定性和准确性, 本文以碎屑岩储层为例, 提出了岩石物理驱动的储层物性参数非线性地震反演方法.首先, 基于贝叶斯框架和高斯分布约束条件, 从叠前地震数据中实现纵、横波速度及密度等弹性参数的反演.其次, 通过碎屑岩岩石物理模型建立起弹性参数与物性参数之间的联系.最后, 利用粒子群算法进行全局寻优获得较为准确的孔隙度、泥质含量和含水饱和度等物性参数.合成数据和实际资料测试结果验证了所提方法的可行性和准确性, 反演结果与测井数据吻合较好, 可有效指示含气储层区域, 本文方法在储层预测和评价方面具有广泛的应用前景.

     

Incorporating known petrophysical model in the seismic full-waveform inversion using the Gramian constraint

In this paper, we develop a general approach to integrating petrophysical models in three-dimensional seismic full-waveform inversion based on the Gramian constraints. In the framework of this approach, we present an example of the frequency-domain P-wave velocity inversion guided by an electrical conductivity model. In order to introduce a coupling between the two models, we minimize the corresponding Gramian functional, which is included in the Tikhonov parametric functional. We demonstrate that in the case of a single-physics inversion guided by a model of different physical type, the general expressions of the Gramian functional and its gradients become simple and easy to program. We also prove that the Gramian functional has a non-negative quadratic form, so it can be easily incorporated in a standard gradient-based minimization scheme. The developed new approach of seismic inversion guided by the known petrophysical model has been validated by three-dimensional inversion of synthetic seismic data generated for a realistic three-dimensional model of the subsurface.     

Separation of P- and S-wavefields from wide-angle multicomponent OBC data for a basalt model

Wide-angle multicomponent ocean-bottom cable (OBC) data should further enhance sub-basalt imaging by using both compressional and converted shear wavefields. The first step in analysing multicomponent OBC data is to decompose the recorded wavefields into pure P- and pure S-wavefields, and extract the upgoing P- and S-waves. This paper presents a new scheme to separate P- and S-wavefields from wide-angle multicomponent OBC data in the τ–p domain. By considering plane-wave components with a known horizontal slowness, the P- and S-wavefields are separated into the directions of observed P- and S-wave oscillations using the horizontal and vertical components of the data. The upgoing P- and S-waves are then extracted from the separated P- and S-wavefields. The parameters used in the separation are the seismic wave velocities and the density at the receiver location, which can be estimated from the first reflection phase observed on the horizontal and vertical components. Numerical tests on synthetic data for a plane-layered model show good performance and demonstrate the accuracy of the scheme. Separation of wavefields from a basalt model is performed using synthetic wide-angle multicomponent OBC data. The results show that both near-offset and wide-angle reflections and conversions from within and below basalt layers are enhanced and clearly identified on the separated wavefields.     

模拟天然气水合物的岩石物理特性模型实验

针对水合物沉积的悬浮、颗粒接触和胶结三种微观模式,制作一组微弱胶结非固结高孔隙度人造样品和颗粒填充渐变的三维物理模型. 通过物理模型实验研究天然气水合物物性参数的敏感性. 实验结果表明：在弱颗粒间胶结物和低有效应力的固结差的沉积物中,声波对孔隙流体性质较敏感. 随着温度的降低颗粒胶结,改变原有沉积物的岩石物理特性,速度、弹性模量和频率升高,声波衰减和Vp/VS减小,沉积层内的反射波消隐.     

Review Paper: A semi‐empirical model of strain sensitivity for 4D seismic interpretation

We reformulate the original model of Hatchell and Bourne and Røste, Stovas and Landrø that couples fractional velocity change to subsurface strain via a fundamental constant R. The new model combines elastic compressibility of a dual‐porosity system for a sand–shale mixture with horizontal planes of inter‐granular weakness. The majority of observed R‐factor magnitudes from post‐stack 4D seismic data in both the reservoir and overburden can thus be explained. R is predicted to depend strongly on lithology and also initial strain state. The model is also extended to predict the observed angle‐dependence of time‐lapse time‐shifts from pre‐stack data. An expression for the gradient of time‐shift with incidence angle is obtained in terms of the background V_P/V_S, and also the ratio of tangential to normal compliances B_T/B_N representing loss or creation of inter‐granular coupling. If accurately estimated from data, this compliance ratio can be used as an additional parameter to assess the post‐production state of the overburden. It is concluded that whilst R remains the over‐arching parameter controlling the magnitude of time‐shifts measured from 4D seismic data, B_T/B_N is a subtler parameter that may also prove of future value.     

Acoustic and petrophysical relationships in low-shale sandstone reservoir rocks

This paper describes the measurements of the acoustic and petrophysical properties of two suites of low‐shale sandstone samples from North Sea hydrocarbon reservoirs, under simulated reservoir conditions. The acoustic velocities and quality factors of the samples, saturated with different pore fluids (brine, dead oil and kerosene), were measured at a frequency of about 0.8 MHz and over a range of pressures from 5 MPa to 40 MPa. The compressional‐wave velocity is strongly correlated with the shear‐wave velocity in this suite of rocks. The ratio V_P/V_S varies significantly with change of both pore‐fluid type and differential pressure, confirming the usefulness of this parameter for seismic monitoring of producing reservoirs. The results of quality factor measurements were compared with predictions from Biot‐flow and squirt‐flow loss mechanisms. The results suggested that the dominating loss in these samples is due to squirt‐flow of fluid between the pores of various geometries. The contribution of the Biot‐flow loss mechanism to the total loss is negligible. The compressional‐wave quality factor was shown to be inversely correlated with rock permeability, suggesting the possibility of using attenuation as a permeability indicator tool in low‐shale, high‐porosity sandstone reservoirs.     

岩石物理驱动的储层裂缝参数与物性参数概率地震反演方法

长波长假设条件下,各向同性背景地层中发育一组平行排列的垂直裂缝可等效为具有水平对称轴的横向各向同性（HTI）介质.基于不同观测方位的岩石地震响应特征变化,宽方位地震数据不仅可实现裂缝岩石弹性参数与各向异性参数的预测,同时也蕴含着丰富的孔隙度等储层物性参数信息.本文结合实际地震资料提出了贝叶斯框架下岩石物理驱动的储层裂缝参数与物性参数概率地震联合反演方法,首先基于AVAZ反演裂缝岩石的弹性参数与各向异性参数,并在此基础上通过统计岩石物理模型表征孔隙度、裂缝密度等各向异性介质储层参数与裂缝岩石参数的相互关联,并采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）抽样方法进行大量样本的随机模拟,使用期望最大化（EM）算法估计后验条件概率分布,最终寻找最大后验条件概率对应的孔隙度、裂缝密度等HTI裂缝介质储层参数即为反演结果.测井及实际地震数据处理表明,该方法能够稳定合理地从方位地震资料中获取裂缝岩石弹性参数与各向异性参数,并提供了一种较为可靠的孔隙度、裂缝密度等裂缝介质储层参数概率地震反演方法.

     

瞬变电磁快速成像解释系统研究

为了提高瞬变电磁测深法对地探测的垂向分辨能力,文中研究了磁偶源瞬变电磁法快速成像的方法.详细讨论了电磁波与地震波在介质中的传播规律,分析了磁偶源瞬变电磁场在远区的响应特性.根据磁偶源瞬变电磁场与反射地震波的传播规律的相似性,提出了TEM资料拟地震快速成像解释的思路.理论模型正、反演计算结果表明方法理论是可行的,野外实测资料处理结果进一步说明了该方法是有效的.     

Mechanistic interpretation of Alpine glacierized environments: Part 2. Hydrologic interpretation and model parameters identification on case study

The differential model MIAGE (see “Mechanistic Interpretation of Alpine Glacierized Environments: Part 1. Model formulation and related dynamical properties” by Perona and Burlando, this issue) is analyzed in this work with the purpose of: (i) showing the model equivalence to a nonlinear reservoir system; (ii) identifying and correlating the model’s coefficients to the hydrogeomorphological properties of a number of different Alpine basins; (iii) testing the model performances to assess the potential impact of climatic change on the hydrologic dynamics of the basins being studied. The study catchments have different topographic, morphologic and hydrologic characteristics, range in size from 4 to 3300 km² and are 2–32% glacierized. For each basin, the model coefficients are obtained by applying a system identification technique to the mean seasonal basin behaviour. It is shown that the coefficients vary in a reasonable way according to hydrogeomorphological basin characteristics. Model coefficients provide insight into the basin drainage time, and the time dependent damping and elastic properties of the system. Despite its simplicity and in the limit of the model capabilities, results for changing climatic scenarios are also in good qualitative agreement with other well tested modelling approaches. In summary, MIAGE offers an interesting minimalist approach to shed light on the dynamics of glacierized Alpine catchments.     

基于岩石物理参数转换模型的页岩气含气量评价新方法研究

页岩气在储层中主要以游离气和吸附气的形式存在, 其含气量主要通过现场解吸和测井方法计算.由于页岩储层十分致密, 并且常伴有微裂缝发育, 这就造成了页岩储层的储集空间从纳米级孔隙到微米-毫米级的微裂缝并存的特殊情况.针对微孔和介孔段（50 nm以内）的等温吸附方法, 以及针对宏孔（50 nm以上）的高压压汞方法在表征页岩孔隙结构上都存在着局限性.而核磁（NMR）T₂分布本身虽然能够表征孔径分布, 但是需要精确刻度横向弛豫时间与孔径的关系.本文在现有方法的基础上, 结合上述方法的优势, 采用拼接的方式表征页岩整体孔径分布, 并将核磁T₂分布刻度为孔径分布.基于横向弛豫时间和孔径的关系, 结合T₂-I转换模型, 采用动态参数计算页岩储层含水饱和度和含气量, 这为页岩储层含气量评价提供了新的可靠的方法.