Geopolitical Legacies and Central European Export Linkages: A Historical and Gravity Model Analysis of Hungary

This paper analyzes Hungary's export linkages of the interwar and Cold War periods using gravity model and historical analyses. Hungary is a useful example of former Soviet satellites because it combines relative political stability (since 1956) and experimentation with the New Economic Mechanism (NEM) during the 1970s and 1980s. Historical analysis reveals seven events since World War I that changed Hungary's trade patterns. Gravity model analysis for 1955, 1965, 1975, and 1985 shows the dramatic cleavage of the “Iron Curtain,” the effect of the NEM, and particularly strong and weak linkages for Hungarian trade that may result from historical legacies, complementarity, or specific political contacts.     

中亚地缘政治新格局及其对中国的战略影响

中亚作为一个相对独立的地缘政治单元,在区位、文化、社会等方面具有特殊性,在能源和资源方面具有显著的优势,在世界政治和国际关系中具有重要地位。自“9·11”事件所致的阿富汗战争之后,中亚地缘政治重新洗牌,多种国际政治行为体竞相介入中亚,形成复杂的地缘政治关系,中亚地缘政治格局发生新的变化,对中国产生新的和复杂的战略影响。     

对中欧草地系统演替的17年量化研究(英文)

本文旨在用17年的观测数据检验三个有关草地系统演替的假设:(1)物种多样性在演替早期不断增加;(2)伴随着演替的推进,样方植物群落间的相似度逐渐增加(样方间的差异度随着演替不断降低);(3)在演替早期,植物群落的物种组成有趋同之势。包括植物群落的总体发展、Shannon多度与均度、Bray-Curtis差异度和群落周转率在内的量化统计结果显示:经过早期5年的演替,各样方的物种多样性表现出快速的趋同,多度均值逐渐由8增加至25个物种;同时,所有样方的物种总数由23增加至55个物种,标准方差由4.6降至0.3。此外,样方间的差异度逐渐降低,物种多度与组成呈明显的趋同。停止除草的一个重要效应是,人工设置的由1到16个物种的多样性梯度因物种入侵至多度较低的样地而减弱。     

基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

大国地缘政治博弈事关国家安全,影响世界格局。通过对地理要素的综合考量构建了地缘影响力模型,并基于博弈论建立了钓鱼岛问题大国地缘政治博弈树,对中美博弈过程进行了分析。最后针对钓鱼岛问题4种博弈走势提出了战略应对参考建议。研究结果表明：①在中国大陆主导时,各国保持合作将共赢,一旦动武,若美俄地缘战略决策指数不高,形势对中国大陆不利。②当美国地缘战略决策指数较小,俄罗斯较大时,是解决钓鱼岛问题的战略良机。③中国台湾是中国解决钓鱼岛问题的重要影响因素,要灵活把握与处理。④ 在4种战略博弈形势下,均存在中美战略博弈的纳什均衡,但美国、日本和中国台湾有一定概率铤而走险,要保持警惕并做好战略应对。⑤ 博弈分析结果较为客观的反映了钓鱼岛问题的多种战略走向,并与当前相关大国关于钓鱼岛问题的战略基本吻合,印证了地缘影响力模型对地理要素量化的可行性以及大国地缘政治博弈分析方法的合理性。     

中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易格局分析

作为上海合作组织成员国及丝绸之路经济带的重点区域,俄罗斯及中亚地区与中国经贸关系日益密切,对中国内陆开放及地缘政治安全具有重大意义。利用贸易强度指数、贸易互补性指数、出口集中指数等,对1992-2012年中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易发展历程及空间格局、进出口产品格局进行深入分析。结果显示双方贸易强度不断提升,且贸易互补性增强,同时俄罗斯及中亚出口产品种类明显增加。当前双方贸易格局呈现以下特点:俄罗斯及中亚形成了以资源类初级产品为绝对主导的出口产品结构,中国则以机械设备及纺织服装等为主;中国对其出口贸易格局是边境贸易与地区产业专业化格局叠加的结果,进口贸易格局则受边境贸易及能源需求格局的影响。     

Acquisition of industrial enterprises and its relations with regional identity: The case of the beer industry in Central Europe

ABSTRACT

The development of globalisation has ushered in fundamental changes that have led to a break in the relationship between places of production and places of consumption, and sometimes a rejection of global products and corporations at the local level in accordance with neolocalism. The objective of the article is to examine the effect of regional identity on the local impacts of global processes by applying a multilevel analysis of the brewing industry, in which consumers are very sensitive to changes in the beer offered and can influence it, for example by putting pressure on representatives of restaurants. Beginning with extensive research on the international level, the authors point out the various impacts of brewery acquisitions in three Central European countries – Czechia, Poland and Slovakia – that differ regarding the role of beer in the identity of their inhabitants. Thereafter, they focus on two Czech beer brands, the production of which was relocated to other regions after acquisitions. Based on field studies in the regions of the brands’ original production, the authors find that both brands lost popularity among their original customers. They conclude that for Czech customers, the place of production may be an important factor when choosing a beer brand.     

海运连通性与中国国际贸易增长——基于联合国LSBCI数据的分析

基于联合国班轮航运双边连通性指数(LSBCI)数据,刻画了2006—2020年中国海运连通性的特征,采用拟泊松极大似然估计(PPML)考察了海运连通性对中国国际贸易的影响及作用机制。结果表明:2006—2019年中国海运连通性水平稳步提升,2020年出现骤降,整体存在明显的空间差异性特点。海运连通性具有显著贸易增长效应,在替换因变量和考虑滞后影响等稳健性检验后仍成立。海运连通性通过降低双边贸易成本和增强双边市场引力两个渠道来实现中国国际贸易增长。海运连通性的贸易增长效应在“一带一路”沿线内外、不同时段和不同收入水平等方面具有显著的异质性特征。     

A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in Rural Mozambique

This study uses a mixed methodology to investigate the relationship between agricultural trade and socioeconomic inequality in Mozambique at multiple geographical scales. The quantitative analysis examines all rural regions of the country and a nationally representative sample of rural households, whereas the qualitative analysis focuses primarily on two case study villages. Research findings suggest that social and geographical context greatly influence the relationships between agricultural trade and regional inequality. Trade-related effects on economic inequality—and the social status of traders—vary across Mozambican regions. Results suggest that trade increases inequality in regions where traders have low social status, but reduces inequality in areas where they have high social status. These findings suggest that social and economic factors work together to shape landscapes of inequality.     

山东省的FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长——基于协整检验和VEC模型的实证分析

文章选取1988年到2008年山东省6DP、FDI和进出口的统计数据,基于VAR模型,建立向量误差修正模型（VEC）,运用Johansen检验以及Granger因果关系检验分析外商直接投资以及进出口与经济增长之间的关系。分析结果表明,山东省的外商直接投资、对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并且FDI、进出口均是山东经济增长的Granger原因,FDI也与进出口形成长期的单向因果关系。     

毒品贸易与国家主权破碎：基于缅甸北部的政治地理学分析

与中国云南省接壤的缅甸北部少数民族自治邦,包括掸邦和克钦邦,构成全球第二大非法毒品生产地的金三角核心区。通过借助历史档案和学术文献,聚焦缅甸北部,基于政治地理的视角,理清缅甸北部毒品贸易的历史起源,探讨了自缅甸1948年独立后毒品贸易给该国带来的政治与经济危机,以及相应的地缘政治冲突和外部干预。文章试图回答的问题有：为什么毒品贸易能够在缅北扎根?毒品贸易如何影响缅甸政府在其北部山区的主权完整和领土控制?文章的核心观点是毒品成为缅甸国内破碎主权和外部势力干预的原因和结果,毒品贸易以及与毒品相关的犯罪活动已经渗入缅北,严重危害了缅甸的主权完整。毒品贸易也为外部势力介入缅甸国内事务提供了契机。由于主体民族缅族控制的中央政府同缅北的少数民族地方武装间缺乏足够的信任,民族和解缺乏基础,也无法为全面禁毒创造有利的政治条件。因而,缅北的毒品贸易和缅甸的国家建设相互影响,导致国家主权破碎化和外部干预,导致缅北成为亚洲最贫穷落后的地区。文章分析以毒品为核心的开源权力机制与非正式或者非法全球化,丰富了Agnew有关主权的理论,在实践方面有助于认识中缅边境安全的复杂性,促进云南同东南亚的跨国区域化。     

俄罗斯和中亚五国资源开发现状与潜力分析

俄罗斯和中亚五国地域辽阔,土地、森林、水、能源等自然资源丰富,尤其是有色金属矿藏,种类配套齐全,在世界都占有重要地位。俄罗斯和中亚五国与中国在地缘、历史和文化等多方面有着悠久的历史,具有资源开发、经贸合作和科技交流的国际背景和有利条件。俄罗斯和中亚五国十分重视资源开发和原料出口,向主要经济合作伙伴推销资源产品,并很快引起许多国家,尤其是经济发展较快国家的重视。在未来的几年中,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国在土地、电力、建材、机械、畜牧业、信息、交通等领域都有着广阔的合作空间。可以说,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国及其辐射地区市场潜力巨大,待开发的领域空白点较多,特别是里海、西伯利亚的石油和天然气,是21世纪全球最具能源开发前景的地区,而能源勘探与开采领域则是我们未来需要重点发展合作的领域。但是,中亚国家的原料型经济倾向,参与世界经济一体化程度不足,生产和社会基础薄弱,这些问题都阻碍着中亚国家的可持续发展。特别是中亚国家的加工工业和轻工业相对落后,大部分日用消费品依靠进口。这是我国在中亚区域经济合作中充分发挥市场优势、加工业优势的有利条件。所以,资源和经济技术的互补性,对发展中国与中亚五国和俄罗斯双边的区域经济合作都将起到积极作用。展望21世纪的俄罗斯、中亚五国与中国的经贸合作关系,根据俄罗斯和中亚各国资源状况实地调查和统计资料等,对区域资源开发现状与潜力进行了分析,对共同面对的问题,合作的基础和条件及合作前景,都进行了探讨。     

A dendroclimatological study of east- and west-facing slopes in mountainous areas subjected to strong air pollution (the Sudetes,Central Europe)

The Sudetes Mountains (Central Europe) were under a particularly intense long-term air pollution load during the 1970s and 1980s. Intense industrial activity in this area led to large-scale forest dieback and reductions in tree growth rates, potentially limiting the use of tree-ring data from this region in dendroclimatic research. In this paper, ring-width chronologies were constructed for 493 Norway spruce trees (Picea abies L. Karst.) from 17 sampling sites within five major mountain ranges in the Sudetes Mountains of Poland. Growth-climate response data indicate that April?July temperatures are the main factor affecting radial growth of trees in the study area. Our data also indicate the strong influence of slope aspect on temperature signal strength. The lowest correlation values were obtained for sites located on western slopes with effective fog deposition, which are strongly affected by pollution. An appropriate sampling strategy resulted in the creation of a temperature-sensitive proxy record (rAMJJ = 0.70), exceptional for areas under strong pressure from human activity. Based on a regional master chronology, growing season (April?July) temperatures over the past 200 years were then reconstructed. Four warm and four cold periods were distinguished and compared with other reconstructions and long-term instrumental data.     

基于贝叶斯时空模型的建设用地扩张格局差异分析——以长三角和中原城市群为例

基于土地利用现状遥感监测数据,采用贝叶斯统计方法对长三角城市群和中原城市群城市建设用地扩张的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究,并探讨两个间差异规律。结果表明:(1)研究期内,两个城市群的建设用地均呈现快速扩张的态势,增长速度均在2000—2005年达到峰值,对应的净增长率分别为36.6%和31.1%。(2)两个城市群城市扩张空间演化过程差异显著,长三角城市群建设用地扩张表现为“点—轴—波式循环”模式,空间异质性较高,出现多个城市扩张热点区域;而中原城市群表现为“点—轴—网”模式,地区间扩张差异较小,温点扩张区域居多。(3)影响两个城市群建设用地扩张的主要因素有经济发展、产业结构、人口规模和居民收入。从影响程度大小的区域对比来看,经济规模、产业结构和居民收入对长三角城市群的影响程度高,人口规模对中原城市群的影响程度高。     

中心地体系与水系分形结构的相似性分析——关于人-地对称关系的一个理论探讨

以城市体系与水系的分形结构相似性为实例,探讨人文地理系统与自然地理系统的对称性及其破缺特征。首先建立城市人口—河流长度、城区面积—流域面积、 (某一级别的 )城市数目— (某一等级的 )河流数目等测度对应关系 ;然后证明基于中心地理论的Beckmann城镇等级—规模模型与 Horton水系构成第一、第二定律数理同构,关于城市人口—城区面积的异速生长关系模型与关于主河道长度—流域面积的几何测度关系模型以及 Horton水系构成的第二、第三定律数理同构 ;进而提出 :城市体系与水系分形结构的相似性实质上是自然—人文地理系统的对称性,只是这种对称关系存在一定程度的破缺,地理系统的演化目标之一似乎是要重建大自然的对称律。     

A song of volumes,surfaces and fluxes: The case study of the Central Mallorca Depression (Balearic Promontory) during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

The Central Mallorca Depression (CMD) located in the Balearic Promontory (Western Mediterranean) contains a well-preserved evaporitic sequence belonging to the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) salt giant, densely covered by high- and low-resolution seismic reflection data. It has been proposed recently that the MSC evaporitic sequence in the CMD could be a non-deformed analogue of the key MSC area represented by the Caltanissetta Basin in Sicily. This presumed similarity makes the CMD an interesting system to better understand the MSC events. Physics-based box models of the water mixing between sub-basins, built on conservation of mass of water and salt, help constrain the hydrological conditions under which evaporites formed during the MSC. Those models have been widely used in the literature of the MSC in the past two decades. They have been mostly applied to the Mediterranean Sea as a whole focusing on the Mediterranean–Atlantic connection, or focusing on the influence of the Sicily Sill connecting the Western and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we apply a downscaled version of such modelling technique to the CMD. First, we quantify the present-day volumes of the MSC units. We then use a reconstructed pre-MSC paleo-bathymetry to model salinity changes as a function of flux exchanges between the CMD and the Mediterranean. We show that a persistent connection between the CMD and the Mediterranean brine near gypsum saturation can explain volume of Primary Lower Gypsum under a sea level similar to the present. For the halite, on the contrary, we show that the observed halite volume cannot be deposited from a connected CMD-Mediterranean scenario, suggesting a drawdown of at least 850 m (sill depth) is necessary. Comparison between the deep basin halite volume and that of the CMD shows that it is possible to obtain the observed halite volume in both basins from a disconnected Mediterranean basin undergoing drawdown, although determining the average salinity of the Western Mediterranean basin at the onset of drawdown requires further investigation.     

城市群生态空间结构优化组合模式及对策——以中原城市群为例

城市群生态空间结构优化将会促进城市群经济社会环境可持续发展。在深入分析城市群生态空间结构与城市群经济社会发展之间的空间相互作用、互利共生和协同进化等优化依据基础上,构建了城市群生态空间结构优化组合模式。作者阐述并分析了中原城市群建设过程中生态空间结构紊乱原因、空间结构演变趋势和生态空间结构优化模式。最后提出中原城市群生态空间结构优化对策建议：因地制宜,构建完善高效的“斑块—廊道—基质”城市群生态网络系统;促进城市群区域各城市合理分工,不断形成产业簇群;构建城市群发展引导机制,使城市群区域的城乡建设转向更加适宜人们居住的生态环境友好型地区。     

Discrimination of fluvial, eolian and neotectonic features in a low hilly landscape: A DEM-based morphotectonic analysis in the Central Pannonian Basin, Hungary

The Gödöllő Hills, a low-relief terrain within the Central Pannonian Basin in Hungary, is characterised by moderate tectonic deformation rates. Although typical tectonic landforms are not clearly recognisable in the study area, this paper succeeded in discriminating between tectonically controlled landforms and features shaped by fluvial erosion or deflation with no tectonic control.DEM-based morphometric parameters including elevation, slope and surface roughness, enabled the delineation of two NW–SE trending spearhead-shaped ridges separated by a wide rectilinear valley of the same strike. Although directional statistics suggested possible tectonic control of NW–SE striking landforms, precise morphometry completed with an analysis of subsurface structures rejected their tectonic preformation. Deflation plays a significant role in shaping the area, and the presence of two large-scale yardangs separated by a wind channel is proposed. In temperate-continental areas of Europe, no deflational landforms of such scale have been described so far, suggesting that Pleistocene wind power in periglacial areas was more significant than it was previously thought.Characteristic drainage patterns and longitudinal valley profiles enabled the recognition of areas probably affected by neotectonic deformation. A good agreement was observed between locations of Quaternary warping predicted by the morphometric study and subsurface structures revealed by the tectonic analysis. Zones of surface uplift and subsidence corresponded to anticlinal and synclinal hinges of fault-related folds. In low-relief and slowly-deforming areas, where exogenous forces may override tectonic deformation, only the integrated application of morphometric and subsurface-structural indications could assure correct interpretation of the origin of various landforms, while a morphometric study alone could have led to misinterpretation of some morphometric indices apparently suggesting tectonic preformation. On the other hand, the described morphological expression of subsurface structures could verify Quaternary age of the deformation.     

地区间贸易流量的产业—空间模型构建与应用

通过深入剖析区域间经济联系的经济地理学理论基础,考虑到同业影响因子,重新构建引力模型,并引入空间滞后因子,利用地理加权回归方法建立了估算区域间贸易流量的产业—空间统计模型,并在中国30 个省区投入产出表的基础上,以省区间农业、化工、通信电子3 个产业贸易流量的估算为例对上述方法进行了说明。结果表明：① 空间统计模型的应用可以显著提高区域间贸易流量的估算可靠性;② 随着空间权函数中带宽的缩小,贸易流量显得更加集中。因此,带宽在一定程度上反映了地理活动的空间集聚程度,不同行业应选取不同带宽;③ 不同行业有不同的同业影响机制和贸易特征,农业输出地以中部地区为主,目的地以沿海地区为主,具有一定的同业竞争关系,而化工、通信行业的产业流动主要发生在东部地区内部,具有很强的同业合作关系。