施甸盆地三维地震动研究

本文利用三维施甸盆地模型以及川滇地区的地壳速度结构,采用谱元法和并行计算技术,考虑地形的影响,模拟了盆地外围中等设定地震作用下施甸盆地地震波的传播,分析了面波的产生和传播,研究了该盆地不同位置剖面地震动的差异和原因.研究表明,小型盆地在中等地震的作用下盆地内部地震动空间差异很大,盆地中较深的小型凹陷更容易汇聚面波,形成更强的振动,位于覆盖层厚度剧烈变化区域的地震动强度也会很大,甚至大于覆盖层厚的区域.较基岩地震动,盆地内地震动持续时间明显增加,地震动的放大作用明显,这也是盆地震害严重的主要原因之一.     

Observations and estimation of long-period strong ground motion in the los angeles basin

While the accurate estimation of ground-motion amplitudes across the entire frequency band of engineering interest is not possible at the present time, the excitation and propagation of long-period strong-ground motion can be understood with existing seismological methodology. In the Los Angeles Basin, the long-period strong ground motion excited by the San Fernando earthquake is dominated by the presence of surface waves, whose gross amplitude and frequency content are easily attributable to physical properties of the earthquake source and source-station propagation paths. Observed measures of the long-period strong ground motion of the Kern County earthquake relative to the San Fernando earthquake at two sites in the Los Angeles Basin which recorded both shocks can be predicted with considerable accuracy by a simple earthquake source model. This source model is extrapolated to represent the maximum credible earthquake likely to affect the Los Angeles area, taken to be a repeat of the Fort Tejon (1857) earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The measures of long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin estimated for it agree well with the comparable measures of Earthquake A-2, intended to represent the same situation. For the purpose of aseismic design of long-period structures, Earthquake A-2 is a reasonable, if not all inclusive, estimate of the long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin generated by a magnitude 8+ earthquake along the San Andreas fault north and east of Los Angeles.     

基于强震动记录的地震生命损失快速评估方法

随着我国强震动观测数据数量和质量的大幅提高, 破坏性地震发生后所观测到的强震动记录也在试验性地转化为仪器烈度数据． 本文将强震动记录引入应急性的生命损失快速评估, 借助已有的地震应急灾害损失快速评估模型的表达方法, 提出了一种将仪器烈度概率密度函数和生命损失函数相结合的地震人员伤亡快速评估方法． 通过确定仪器烈度的概率密度, 并结合四川地区已有房屋建筑易损性研究成果, 建立了考虑建筑地震易损性并与烈度相关的地震生命损失快速评估函数, 并利用汶川地震的强震动记录对本文提出的生命损失快速评估方法进行评估计算. 结果表明, 该方法的计算结果与实际震害损失结果颇为一致, 说明了该方法的可行性, 因而能够及时为地震应急救援提供可靠信息．      

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion data recorded in the Gubbio sedimentary basin (Central Italy)

Various authors, analysing the set of accelerograms recorded at Gubbio Piana (GBP) (central Italy), have demonstrated that strong amplification occurs at this accelerometric station, which is installed within an alluvial basin. In particular, Ambraseys et al. [(2005a), Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53; (2005b), Bull Earth Eng 3:55–73] observed that the strong motion peaks at GBP greatly exceed the median values predicted by the attenuation relationships they derived for Europe. In this work, we analyse and discuss some characteristics of the ground motion recorded at the GBP station. We show that the ground motion parameters, such as peak-ground acceleration and peak-ground velocity, are strongly influenced by the presence of locally induced surface waves that produce both a lengthening of the significant shaking duration and an increase in the peak values with respect to a nearby bedrock site. The basin-induced surface waves are observed in the three components of motion and their effects on the peak values are particularly evident in the vertical component. In the frequency domain, the energy of the surface waves is mostly restricted to the frequency band 0.4–0.8 Hz for both the horizontal and vertical components. The horizontal and vertical Fourier amplitudes are also very similar, and this indicates that the H/V spectral ratio technique is not applicable to describing the site response due to the propagation of seismic wave in a complex 2D/3D geological structure. Finally, a preliminary polarization analysis shows that the directions of polarization, as well as the degree of elliptical polarization, exhibit a strong variability with time, that may be related to a complex propagation of Love and Rayleigh waves within the basin.     

2021年5月21日云南漾濞MS6.4地震随机有限断层三维地震动模拟

2021年5月21日云南省大理州漾濞县发生MS6.4 地震,震中附近遭受了强烈地震破坏.为预测此次地震的地震动影响场,利用震源运动学破裂随机模型,基于随机有限断层三维地震动模拟方法,给出了此次地震中 28个触发强震动台站的三分量加速度时程模拟记录,并结合强震动观测记录,估计了此次地震的地震应力降及震源破裂过程,进一步模拟给出了此次地震中 2823 个虚拟观测点的三分量加速度时程.结果表明,模拟记录的峰值地面加速度(PGA)、峰值地面速度(PGV)与观测值接近,并体现了地震动峰值的衰减规律、近场饱和效应和破裂方向性效应;模拟与观测记录的 5%阻尼比拟加速度反应谱(PSA)的幅值接近、谱形相似,在0.05～10 s周期段,模拟记录可以很好地预测地震动.基于三分量模拟记录给出了漾濞MS 6.4 地震的仪器测定地震烈度图,与云南省地震局发布的烈度图接近,极震区烈度最高可达Ⅷ度,震源破裂方向性导致震中 SE方向的烈度普遍高于 NW方向,受局部场地条件影响沿洱海西侧出现高烈度异常区.     

Study on simulating strong ground motion by fractal stochastic method

The time history of strong ground motion can be synthesized by empirical Green's function (EGF) method.Firstly a large seismic event is discretized into a series of subevents; secondly recordings of earthquakes with proper size and spatial distribution are chosen as time history (EGF) of those subevents; finally the EGFs are summated to get the time history of ground motion caused by the large event.     

断层破裂面倾角变化对断陷盆地强地面运动的影响

地震事件中,断层破裂面的倾角大小直接影响到地表强地震动的分布状态,尤其在断陷盆地中,强地面运动特征还可能受到盆地结构及盆地内多条围限断层的影响.本文模拟了银川断陷盆地内的活动断层——银川隐伏断层南段发生Mw6.5特征地震时,断层破裂面倾角在30°~85°范围内变化时引起的强地面运动,探讨了断层破裂面倾角变化对盆地内强地面运动分布特征和强度的影响.结果表明:破裂面倾角较缓时,银川盆地内的强地面运动分布区域不仅仅决定于发震断层的产状,同时还受到断层上盘距离最近的芦花台断层的影响,致使强地面运动集中于两条断层所围限的区域;随着发震断层破裂面的倾角逐渐增大,强地面运动以发震断层产状的影响为主,强震集中区向发震断层靠近并分布于发震断层上盘,且沿断层走向方向出现了强度不同的地震动反射区;尤其是发震断层破裂面倾角接近垂直时,受银川盆地"西陡东缓"结构和盆地西边界贺兰山东麓断裂反射作用的影响,竖向地震动反射区强度在远离发震断层的西北方向明显增大,致使芦花台断层附近区域与银川断层南段上盘区域成为地震发生时可能遭受震害最严重的地区.本文探讨结果提醒我们在类似区域的活动断层附近进行建(构)筑规划和地震工程设计时,有必要考虑发震断层破裂面倾角大小和盆地内其它断层构造的共同影响,综合评价潜在地震对盆地内近断层地表及各类建(构)筑物的危害性.     

基于假设检验的地震动强度(烈度)速报方法

地震发生后数分钟内,快速、可靠地判别出地震动强度(烈度)的空间分布,用以估计不同地区的受灾程度,可以为政府开展应急救援并合理分配救援力量提供决策依据,保证救援人员及时、准确地到达极震区并展开搜救,以减少生命财产损失。本文基于统计学中的假设检验方法,对历史震害资料进行统计,提出了一种利用强地震动参数判别地震动强度(烈度)的方法。比较结果表明,本方法所确定的地震动强度(烈度)与实际震害烈度对应较好,能较真实地反映实际震害情况。     

An evaluation of 3-D velocity models of the Kanto basin for long-period ground motion simulations

We performed three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference simulations of long-period ground motions (2–10 s) in the Kanto basin using the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS 2009), Yamada and Yamanaka (Exploration Geophysics 65(3):139–150, 2012) (YY), and Head Quarter for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP 2012) velocity models for two intermediate depth (68–80 km) moderate earthquakes (Mw 5.8–5.9), which occurred beneath the Kanto basin. The models primarily differ in the basic data set used in the construction of the velocity models. The J-SHIS and HERP models are the results of integration of mainly geological, geophysical, and earthquake data. On the other hand, the YY model is oriented towards the microtremor-array-observation data. We obtained a goodness of fit between the observed and synthetic data based on three parameters, peak ground velocities (PGVs), smoothed Fourier spectra (FFT), and cross-correlations, using an algorithm proposed by Olsen and Mayhew (Seism Res Lett 81:715–723, 2010). We found that the three models reproduced the PGVs and FFT satisfactorily at most sites. However, the models performed poorly in terms of cross-correlations especially at the basin edges. We found that the synthetics using the YY model overestimate the observed waveforms at several sites located in the areas having V _s 0.3 km/s in the top layer; on the other hand, the J-SHIS and HERP models explain the waveforms better at the sites and perform similarly at most sites. We also found that the J-SHIS and HERP models consist of thick sediments beneath some sites, where the YY model is preferable. Thus, we have concluded that the models require revisions for the reliable prediction of long-period ground motions from future large earthquakes.     

基于改进的希尔伯特-黄变换的地震强震动特征提取

2021年5月21日漾濞M_s6.4地震是云南近10 a以来继M_s6.5鲁甸地震和M_s6.6景谷地震后发生的又一次破坏性浅源地震,其震中位于滇西北地区维西-乔后断裂带附近。震源机制结果显示：此次地震属于走滑型破裂,符合区域构造特征。为进一步研究该地震强震动特征,特引入改进后的希尔伯特-黄变换(HHT),以不同角度客观分析强震动的尺度和频域特征。研究结果表明：希尔伯特-黄变换在对实际地震动记录进行特征提取后,得到的边际谱和时频谱可在一定程度上保留原始数据的主要信息,该方法可为类似破坏性浅源地震的强震动特征分析提供更有效的信息参数,保证了信号分解的稳定性,更适于处理非平稳信号,可为现代信号应用分析于强震动特征提供另一种新思路。     

Neural estimation of strong ground motion duration

This paper presents and discusses the use of neural networks to determine strong ground motion duration. Accelerometric data recorded in the Mexican cities of Puebla and Oaxaca are used to develop a neural model that predicts this duration in terms of the magnitude, epicenter distance, focal depth, soil characterization and azimuth. According to the above the neural model considers the effect of the seismogenic zone and the contribution of soil type to the duration of strong ground motion. The final scheme permits a direct estimation of the duration since it requires easy-to-obtain variables and does not have restrictive hypothesis. The results presented in this paper indicate that the soft computing alternative, via the neural model, is a reliable recording-based approach to explore and to quantify the effect of seismic and site conditions on duration estimation. An essential and significant aspect of this new model is that, while being extremely simple, it also provides estimates of strong ground motions duration with remarkable accuracy. Additional but important side benefits arising from the model’s simplicity are the natural separation of source, path, and site effects and the accompanying computational efficiency.     

近断层强地震动场预测

以1997年4月11日新疆伽师地震（Mw6.1）为例,详细介绍了近断层强地震动场的预测方法.首先,用有限断层震源建模方法建立了该次地震的震源模型;然后,基于动力学拐角频率的地震动随机模拟方法,模拟了该次地震仅有主震加速度记录、且位于巨厚土层上的三个台站的加速度时程,并用实际地震记录进行了验证.在此基础上,基于预测的近断层77个节点的加速度时程的峰值绘制了该次地震的加速度场.结果表明,上述方法模拟的加速度时程在0.5 Hz以上的高频段是可行的、实用的;预测的近断层加速度场具有非常明显的上盘效应.地表最大加速度的范围与断层面上最大凹凸体位置相对应,说明与断层面上凹凸体相对应的地面上的建（构）筑物将会遭受到较为严重的震害.     

Rotational components of surface strong ground motion

Rotational components of seismic waves have been estimated using the strong motion array in Taiwan, SMART-1. The inner rings of accelerographs, covering an approximately circular area of 3 km², permit a decomposition of travelling waves with wavelengths in the range 0.5 to 5.0 km and frequencies from 0.1 to 5 Hz. Rotational components of the strain field, obtained from station pairs and averaged over the array using stacking techniques, were computed for five different earthquakes with M_s magnitude 5.7 to 7.8, and epicentral distances 6 to 84 km. The results indicate peak rotation values about a vertical axis on the order of 4 × 10^?5 rad at an approximately 2.5 s period. The measured values for pure rotation and rocking are in agreement with the spatial coherency structure observed in these earthquakes. For comparison, significant effects to engineered structures generally appear when curl u > 10^?4 rad. The estimates are important for design of scaled engineered models for soil-structure interaction experiments.     

Rotation-invariant mean duration of strong ground motion

Strong-motion duration is usually computed separately for three components of recorded ground-motion time series. This results in different values of duration for the three components. Furthermore, the computed duration values are dependent on the sensor orientation. Physically, such dependence is not desirable. In this work, computing duration based on resultant recorded motion instead of individual components is proposed. Such a measure of duration is shown to be rotation-invariant and hence independent of the sensor axes. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the duration of resultant motion represents the mean duration for all possible arbitrary sensor orientations in three-dimensional space. The results indicate that the apparent difference between duration of horizontal and vertical motion reported in the literature is not universal to all definitions of duration. A set of 462 three-component accelerograms from Europe and the Middle East is used to demonstrate and support the presented findings and arguments.     

3-D physical model in strong ground motion numerical simulation： A case study of Kunming basin

Seismic hazard assessment based on urban active faults can provide scientific bases for city planning and projectconstruction,while numerical simulation of strong ground motion is an important method for seismic hazard pre-diction and assessment.A 3-D physical model in conformity with real strata configuration of(mainly)the Quater-nary is a prerequisite to ensure the reliability of the simulation results.In this paper,we give a detailed account ofthe technical scheme and process for creating a 3-D physical model in Kunming basin.The data used are synthe-sized from seismogeological data,borehole data,topographic data,digital elevation mode(DEM)data,seismicexploration results and wave velocity measurements.Stratigraphic division is based mainly on shear wave velocity,with strata sequence taken into consideration.The model construction is finally accomplished with ArcGIS andmany relevant programming techniques via layer-by-layer stacking(in depth direction)of the adjacent mediuminterfaces(meshes).Meanwhile,a database of 3-D physical models is set up,which provides model data and pa-rameters for strong ground motion simulation.Some processing methods and significant issues are also addressedin the paper in accordance with different types of exploration and experimental data.     

Stochastic simulation of ground motions based on NGA-West2 strong motion records

Stochastic modeling of ground motion is a simple tool to predict ground shaking level for future earthquake and less time consuming than physics-based deterministic modeling. In this paper, a record-based stochastic method that considers the time-and frequency-evolution of ground motion is used to estimate ground motion for scenario earthquakes in tectonic active region. The stochastic method employs a time-domain modulation function to describe the temporal nonstationarity and a filter impulse response function that describe the evolution of frequency content. For characterizing the modulation function and the filter impulse function, six parameters(Ia, D5-95, tmid, ωmid, ω', ξf) are defined, and 2,571 pairs of ground motion recording in the NGA-west2 database are selected to identify the six parameters. Probabilistic density function is assigned to each of the parameter by fitting the frequency distribution histogram.The parameters are then transformed into standard normal space where regression analysis is performed by considering each parameter as function of moment magnitude, rupture distance, v S30(The time-averaged shear wave velocity of the top 30 m of soil). The prediction equations are used to generate ground motions for several scenario earthquakes and compared to NGA-West2 GMPEs.     

Prediction of strong ground motion at EURO-SEISTEST site using the empirical Green's function method

This paper presents some tests on the empirical Green's function method, performed in order to check its effectiveness to predict strong ground motion during future large earthquakes. These investigations basically consist of blind or pseudo-blind tests using part of the data set obtained at the Volvi (Greece) test-site within the framework of the EURO-SEISTEST project. In a first step, a moderate event (M_L=4.1) is simulated by using a small event (M_L=2.5), and taking into account the a priori knowledge of the relevant source parameters (magnitude and stress-drop) for both the base and target events. This check emphasizes the sensitivity of the prediction to the stress-drop values. In a second step, a pseudo-blind prediction is carried out in which the information on the target event is only the magnitude (M_L=5.3) besides the geometrical parameters such as source location, strike and dip. The other important parameters (seismic moment, fault area, stress-drop) are determined on the basis of specific empirical scaling laws derived from several small and moderate events occurring in the area. The synthetic motions are computed for two nearby sites, which are located on the southern edge and in the center of the Mygdonian graben, respectively, and correspond to much different site conditions: weathered rock and thick sediments. They are found in good agreement with the observations, which were unveiled after the simulation. In particular, the amplitude and the phase of the late, local surface waves generated on the southern edge of the graben, are very well reproduced at valley center. Finally, the last step is an attempt to predict strong ground motion for a hypothetical large earthquake of magnitude M_L=6.5. The results are shown to depend very significantly on the scaling laws.