Comparison and analysis of agricultural and forest land changes in typical agricultural regions of northern mid-latitudes

The northeastern China, the United States, and the western Europe are important agricultural regions both on the global and regional scales. The western Europe has a longer history of agricultural land development than the eastern United States. These two regions have changed from the deforestation and reclamation phase in the past to the current land abandonment and reforestation phase. Compared with the two regions, large-scale land exploitation has only been practiced in the northeastern China during the last century. After a short high-intensity deforestation and reclamation period, agricultural and forest lands are basically in a dynamic steady state. By comparing domestic and international agro-forestry development and considering the ecological environment and socio-economic benefits that can be derived from agro-forestry, this paper suggests that large area of reforestation would be inevitable in future though persistent and large agricultural demand in coming decades even more. And local reforestation at slope farmland with ecological vulnerability should be imperative at present to avoid severer damage. At the same time, from the perspective of Land Change Science, the results demonstrate that the research on land use change in the agro-forestry ecotone is typical and critical, particularly those dealing with the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and the simulation of climate, hydrology, and other environmental effects.     

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Green Total-factor Water-use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China

In this study, we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE) which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization. Then we measured the GTFWUE of 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(hereafter provinces) in China(not including Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan as no data) from 2000 to 2018 using a minimum distance to the strong frontier model that contained an undesirable output. We further analyzed the regional differences and spatial correlations of GTFWUE using these values based on Global and Local Moran's I statistics, and empirically determined the factors affecting GTFWUE using a spatial econometric model. The evaluation results revealed that the GTFWUE differed substantially between the regions. The provinces with high and low GTFWUE values were located in the coastal and inland areas of China, respectively. The eastern region had a significantly higher GTFWUE than the central and western regions. The GTFWUEs for all three regions(eastern, central, and western regions) decreased slowly from 2000 to 2011(except 2005), remained stable from 2012 to 2016, and rapidly increased in 2017 before decreasing again in 2018. We found significant spatial correlations between the provincial GTFWUEs. The GTFWUE for most provinces belonged to the high-high or low-low cluster region, revealing a significant spatial clustering effect of provincial GTFWUEs. We also found that China's GTFWUE was highly promoted by economic growth,population size, opening-up level, and urbanization level, and was evidently hindered by water endowment, technological progress, and government influence. However, the water-use structure had little impact on GTFWUE. This study fully demonstrated that the water use mode would be improved, and water resources needed to be used more efficiently and green in China. Moreover, based on the findings of this study, several policy recommendations were proposed from the aspects of cross-regional cooperation, economy, society, and institution.     

中国省级行政区边界形状的GIS分析

本文借助GIS软件支持,计算了我国32个省的平面轮廓形状的分维、形状指数和紧凑度。结果表明,形状复杂(边缘复杂程度高,破碎度较大)的省(区)主要集中在东部及沿海地区;形状较紧凑的省(区)主要集中在西部地区,东部省与西部省的形状特征有较大差异。另探讨了各地区的地理气候环境和历史人文特征所致的主要原因,并初步分析了各特征对交通等组织的影响。     

The present situation, types and changes of China’s environment

Based on development level of regional society and economy, the paper attempts to analyze the present situation, types and change of regional environment in China through the definition of four conceptions environmental pollution index (EPI), social and economic comprehensive index (SECI), —environmental comprehensive index (ECI) and social, economic and environmental comprehensive index (SEECI) and some mathematical calculation, and draws some conclusions to be worth referring: 1). There exists close relation between economic development and environmental situation. With high-speed development of economy, the discharge of the three wastes in China has been increasing, but its environmental social and economic benefit has also been improved at the same time. 2) In the course of economic development, regional environment situation in China has continuously been changing, and there exists the difference of environmental quality between provinces, which is bigger than that of economic development level between them. 3) Except very few provinces, regional EPI in China has risen in varying degrees since the 1980s, which shows that the task for China to prevent environment from polluting its still arduous.     

Changes in Land Use and Agricultural Production Structure Before and After the Implementation of Grain for Green Program in Western China–Taking Two Typical Counties as Examples

Soil erosion becomes a serious environmental problem in the world, especially in western China. An effective management practice called the Grain for Green Program （GGP）, which was launched in 1999, aims to reduce soil and water loss and alleviate the ecological environment problem in western China. Two typical counties in western China, the Zhongxian （in Chongqing Municipality） and Ansai （in Shaanxi Province） were chosen to evaluate the dynamic changes of land use and agricultural production structure before and after the implementation of the Program in this paper. The results showed that the cultivated land area was reduced by 7.08% from 1989 to 2003. The cultivated land per person was decreased by 8.42% during 1999-2003. Moreover, the stability index of the secondary sector of the economy was increased from 0.91 in the period 1990-1999 to 0.94 in the following ten years. In addition, the stability index of tertiary economic sector increased from 0.88 to 0.92 in Zhongxian county. Meanwhile, the cultivated land area was reduced by 15.48% from 1990 to 1999. The soil erosion modulus was decreased by 33.33% from 1999 to 2006. Also, the stability index of secondary and tertiary economic sectors was 0.86 in the period 1998-2002. However, it decreased by 77% during 2002 to 2007 in Ansai County. These results imply that the Grain for Green Program had different impact on the two regions. Several effective strategies of soil and water conservation have been carried out to ameliorate the sustainable development of ecological environment and economy in these two counties of western China.     

THE PRESENT SITUATION,TYPES AND CHANGES OF CHINA'S ENVIRONMENT

1INTRODUCTION~ntially,environmentalproblemisaneconomicproblem.Atpresent,variousenvironmentalpoblernswhichmanarebeingconfrontedisadirectandindirectman-effectedrestilt.Meanwhile,environmentalproblemsareclOSelyrelatedto~ialproblems,eSpeciallyrapidgr'OwthofPOpulation(on,1994).So,whenenvironmentalproblemsforoneregionareanalyzed,itisnec~toconsiderits~ialandeconomicdevelOPmentlevel.2~Y~2.IbeaveralBasicconceptions2.1.1Environmentalcomprehensioni~(ECI)ECIexpressesthechangeOftotalenvironment…     

Agricultural opportunity costs assessment based on planting suitability: a case study in a mountain county in southwest China

Payment for ecosystem services (PES) has become an increasingly popular means of ecosystem conservation. Opportunity cost is an important factor to increase the investment efficiency of PES projects. However, the distribution of opportunity cost is usually unclear in mountainous regions due to the obvious environment changes. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the distribution of agricultural opportunity costs in mountainous regions and applied this method to Baoxing County, a typical mountainous county in Sichuan Province of southwest China. Planting suitability of 17 crops was assessed based on agricultural statistics and natural conditions data within a GIS environment. Agricultural opportunity cost was quantified with a weighted summation of farmers’ willingness to cultivate and each crop’s opportunity cost. Finally, specific agricultural opportunity cost was obtained according to the spatial areas of the protection programs and land use status. The results showed that agricultural opportunity costs of PES in Baoxing County were estimated to be more than $30 million, with a mean of 400.85 $/ha. Agricultural opportunity costs in mountainous regions displayed some obvious spatial variation and areas with lower agricultural opportunity costs could be selected as priority areas for PES. Our findings revealed that the planting suitability evaluation can make agricultural opportunity costs mapping more reasonable. It will be helpful for the PES programs implementation in mountainous regions.     

中国西部地区遥感数据生态多样性多尺度模拟

生态多样性(ecological diversity)是诸如物种和景观元等研究对象丰富性和空间分布均一性的综合,其多尺度测算与模拟已经成为生态学界研究的热点之一。其与传统多样性模型相比,Scaling生态多样性模型能够综合反映均一性和丰富性两个方面的多样性信息,同时考虑了空间尺度因素的作用,是一个理论上完美的生态多样性模型。利用Scaling生态多样性模型对中国西部地区三期遥感数据进行模拟,结果表明:①20世纪80年代末期-90年代末期,中国西部地区景观元多样性先减少后增加,其内部明显具有东高西低的空间分布规律;②省级行政区尺度上模拟结果说明陕西省景观元多样性最高,新疆维吾尔族自治区和西藏自治区最低;西藏自治区景观元多样性变化最显著,而甘肃省和重庆市变化最小;③县级行政区尺度上模拟结果发现中国西部地区存在11个景观元多样性的关键地区;④对比各尺度模拟结果,发现中国西部地区整体景观元多样性大于各省级行政区,各省级行政区大于省内县级行政区,说明Scaling多样性模型能够反映空间尺度因素与生态多样性间存在的正向相关关系。     

Inter-provincial Differences in Rice Multi-cropping Changes in Main Double-cropping Rice Area in China: Evidence from Provinces and Households

Since the early 1980 s, the multi-cropping index for rice has decreased significantly in main double-cropping rice area in China, which is the primary double-cropping rice(DCR) production area. This decline may bring challenges to food security in China because rice is the staple food for more than 60% of the Chinese population. It has been generally recognized that rapidly rising labor costs due to economic growth and urbanization in China is the key driving force of the ‘double-to-single' rice cropping system adaption. However, not all provinces have shown a dramatic decline in DCR area, and labor costs alone cannot explain this difference. To elucidate the reasons for these inter-provincial distinctions and the dynamics of rice cropping system adaption, we evaluated the influencing factors using provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015. We also used household survey data for empirical analysis to explore the mechanisms driving differences in rice multi-cropping changes. Our results indicated that the eight provinces in the study can be divided into three spatial groups based on the extent of DCR area decline, the rapidly-declining marginal, core, and stable zones. Increasing labor cost due to rapid urbanization was the key driving force of rice cropping system adaption, but the land use dynamic vary hugely among different provinces. These differences between zones were due to the interaction between labor price and accumulated temperature conditions. Therefore, increasing labor costs had the greatest impact in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei, where the accumulated temperature is relatively low and rice multi-cropping index declined dramaticly. However, labor costs had little impact in Guangdong and Guangxi. Differences in accumulated temperature conditions resulted in spatially different labor demands and pressure on households during the busy season. As a result, there have been different profits and rice multi-cropping changes between provinces and zones. Because of these spatial differences, regionally appropriate policies that provide appropriate subsidies for early rice in rapidly-declining marginal zone such as Zhejiang and Hubei should be implemented. In addition, agricultural mechanization and the number of agricultural workers have facilitated double-cropping; therefore, small machinery and agricultural infrastructure construction should be further supported.     

Regional disparity and convergence of China’s inbound tourism economy

Comprehending regional characteristics and influencing factors of China’s inbound tourism economy is important to make effective policies that will help inbound tourism develop harmoniously and shrink regional disparity. This paper studied the regional disparity and convergence of China’s inbound tourism economy during 1996–2008 with the methods of σ-convergence, club convergence and β-convergence. The results indicate that 1) inbound tourism receipts per capita (ITRPC) of the whole country, the eastern, central and western regions presented the rapid increasing trend; 2) ITRPC of the whole country was characterized by convergence; 3) the eastern region presented club convergence, but the central and western regions did not show this trend; 4) the star-hotel levels and investment in fixed assets for the tourism industry per capita had a same trend to growth rates of ITRPC, promoting inbound tourism development, and there was no difference among the 31 provinces (municipalities) in the mainland of China; 5) but the proportion of employed persons in the tourism industry accounting for total population and the proportion of the tertiary industry accounting for GDP had a reversal trend to growth rates of ITRPC, shrinking the provincial disparity in inbound tourism economy, and there were differences between the developed provinces and the developing provinces. Based on these analyses, we put forward some suggestions for the developing provinces to speed up inbound tourism economy.     

Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in China: Evaluation,Convergence Characteristics and Spatial Effects

In this study, an inventory analysis approach was used to investigate the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP) and its spatial convergence at national and provincial levels in China from 1999 to 2017. On this basis, spatial factors affecting ANSP were explored by constructing a spatial econometric model. The results indicate that: 1) The intensity of China's ANSP emission showed an overall upward trend and an obvious spatial difference, with the values being high in the eastern and central regions and relatively low in the western region. 2) Significant spatial agglomeration was shown in China's ANSP intensity, and the agglomeration effect was increasing gradually. 3) In the convergence analysis, a spatial lag model was found applicable for interpretation of the ANSP intensity, with the convergence rate being accelerated after considering the spatial factors but slower than that of regional economic growth.4) The spatial factors affecting the ANSP intensity are shown to be reduced by improving agricultural infrastructure investment, laborforce quality, and crop production ratio, while the expansion of agricultural economy scale and precipitation and runoff have positive impact on ANSP in the study region. However, agricultural research and development(RD) investment showed no direct significant effect on the ANSP intensity. Meanwhile, improving the quality of the labor force would significantly reduce the ANSP intensity in the surrounding areas, while the precipitation and runoff would significantly increase the pollution of neighboring regions. This research has laid a theoretical basis for formulation and optimization of ANSP prevention strategies in China and related regions.     

Evaluation and analysis of provincial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity in China

Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.     

Basic characteristics, spatial disparity and its major influencing factors of service industry in China

Based on the analysis of its basic characteristics, this article investigated the disparities of Chinese service industry among the three regions (the eastern China, the western China and the middle China) and inter-provincial disparities of that in the three regions by Theil coefficient and cluster analysis. Then, major factors influencing its spatial disparity were explored by correlation analysis and regression analysis. The conclusions could be drawn as follows. 1) The development of Chinese service industry experienced three phases since the 1980s: rapid growth period, slow growth period, and recovery period. From the proportion of value-added and employment, its development was obviously on the low level. From the composition of industrial structure, traditional service sectors were dominant, but modern service sectors were lagged. Moreover, its spatial disparity was distinct. 2) The level of Chinese service industry was divided into five basic regional ranks: well-developed, developed, relatively-developed, underdeveloped and undeveloped regions. As a whole, the overall structure of spatial disparity was steady in 1990–2005. But there was notable gradient disparity in the interior structure of service industry among different provinces. Furthermore, the overall disparity expanded rapidly in 1990–2005. The inter-provincial disparity of service industry in the three regions, especially in the eastern China, was bigger than the disparity among the three regions. And 3) the level of economic development, the level of urban development, the scale of market capacity, the level of transportation and telecommunication, and the abundance of human resources were major factors influencing the development of Chinese service industry.     

AN ANALYSIS ON THE CAUSES OF DEVELOPMENTDIFFERENCES AMONG THE EASTERN, CENTRALAND WESTERN PARTS OF CHINA

I.DEVELOPMENTDIFFERENCESAMONGTHEEASTERN,CENTRAL~~AN~orchIc~ntdifferencesamongtheeastern,centralandwesternPatsofChinahavealready~aquestionattractingworld-wideattention.FormTable1,itcanbeseenthatInanyaspeCtS,suchasgrOSSeconondcoutput,grOSSdomeSticproducts(GDP)Percapita,totalforeigninvestment,totalinvestmentscale,etc.presentagradualdescendingtrendfromtheeaSternparttothewesternpin.Thefurtheranalysesshowthatthereisasbocontrastasfollows:intheeasternpart,theproPOrtionofsecon…     

中国区域经济发展的地区差异GIS分析

本文主要针对我国改革开放以来地区间经济发展的差距究竟是扩大(发散)还是缩小(收敛)的问题开展了研究.首先,对全国各省(市)1980 - 2008年的人均名义GDP数据进行了空间自相关分析,探讨了全国区域经济发展的地区差异变化,揭示了1984年以后中国各地区之间的经济发展的正空间自相关关系,即全国区域经济发展差异在整体上...     

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluctuations in China

In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China(31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions: leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the ‘four-trillion economic stimulus plan'.     

Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.     

Land use change and effect analysis of tideland reclamation in Hangzhou Bay

Since the beginning of the 20^th century, tideland reclamation as a huge project has continuously extended from inland to the sea for the socioeconomic development, like Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other coastal regions in China. The increase of land area alleviated the contradiction of supply and demand between human and land, which provided the guarantee for agricultural production and industrial development. However, marine ecological environment has been seriously damaged due to the increasing scale of tideland reclamation. This paper took the Hangzhou Bay in the Yangtze River Delta as a study area to explore the evolution law, socioeconomic effect and eco-environmental effect of reclaimed land from 1985 to 2015. The result showed that as follows: (1) The area of tideland reclamation was 460.67 km² with 16.57% cultivated land and 15.93% construction land, and its land use was inefficient; (2) Land use change has spatial and temporal difference, the speed of tideland reclamation had been increasing from 1985 to 2015 in time and the scale of reclaimed land in the southern (84.07%) of Hangzhou Bay was larger than the northern region (15.93%) in space; (3) The evolution law of land use was from tideland to swampland and coastal waters to agricultural facility land, to cultivated land to industrial-mining land to idle land, rural-urban construction land, and formed obviously hierarchical structure; (4) Effect analysis of land use change found that the socio-economic effect had increased but the eco-environmental effect had decreased from 1985 to 2015, it reflected socioeconomic effect was acquired through sacrificing ecoenvironmental effect; (5) It pointed out the existing problems on land extensive inefficient, environmental degradation and economy excessive growth without scientific planning, and offered some suggestions in land comprehensive improvement project, industrial transformation and upgrading and scientific planning and legal safeguard to promote sustainable development in the Hangzhou Bay in the new period.     

Spatio-temporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Comprehensive Agricultural Productivity in Jilin Province,China

Improving comprehensive agricultural productivity is an important measure to realize agricultural modernization.Based on the data from Jilin Statistical Yearbook,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of comprehensive agricultural productivity discrepancy in the main agricultural production areas of Jilin Province,China.The comprehensive agricultural productivity of 25 county-level administrative units were evaluated by a comprehensive index system based on five aspects which included 20 indicators from 2004 to 2017.The pattern of the discrepancy was analyzed by the spatial differentiation indices and spatial convergence theory.The results were as follows:1) the overall comprehensive agricultural productivity was in a 'W-type' rising trend;2) the discrepancy was in'inverted W-type' trend;3) the spatial distribution characteristics were mainly discrete plaque and 'inverted V-type';4) the formation of differences was forced by a combination of internal and external driving forces.Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of rising agricultural productivity and the level of economic and social developments in different counties in Jilin Province.     

发挥地勘行业技术优势为河南大农业发展战略服务

河南是农业和矿业大省,农业地质可以为我省农业发展做出新贡献,且已取得了明显实效,如钾镁肥开发等。发挥地勘行业的技术优势,可以开展以下四个方面的工作:1.开展农业地质生态环境遥感综合调查评价,为农业生产布局服务;2.开展农用矿物肥料开发研究,致力于提高农产品的品质;3.加大天然矿物饲料开发力度,提高畜产品的品质;4.开展缺水地区地下水资源调查。在我省农业地质刚起步的现阶段,应重点培育该学科并提倡多学科联合攻关,营建适应科技创新的新机制。