Setting minimum head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria in chironomid-based inference models

Criteria for removing training set lakes and taxa in chironomidbased inference models, due to low abundances, have largely been ad hoc. We used an anoxia inference model and a hypolimnetic oxygen model from southcentral Ontario to determine what effect subfossil head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria have on fossil inference statistics. Results from six training set lakes suggest that a minimum abundance of 40–50 head capsules is sufficient for use in inference models, however more diverse samples likely require more than 50 head capsules. Taxa deletion criteria substantially improved the predictive ability of inference models (lowered the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP)). The common practice of including taxa with only 2% abundance in at least two lakes was one of the deletion criteria that much improved inference models. Similar deletion criteria, such as 2% in at least 3 lakes and 3% in at least 1 lake, produced comparable improvements (up to 18% reduction in RMSEP).     

Lake levels in the southern Bolivian Altiplano (19°–21°S.) during the Late Glacial based on diatom studies

This study is focused on the endorheic Uyni-Coipasa Basin located in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. Stratigraphical and fossil diatom studies based on a detailed radiocarbon chrnology revealed six phases in water-level changes and paleosalinity variations. At 15,430±80 yr B.P., lacustrine conditions settled in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. A saline lake, characterized by benthic meso-metasaline species, reached +4 m altitude above the present bottom of the basin. After 15,430±80 yr B.P., the level rapidly rose to +27 m, as suggested by a tychoplanktonic mesosaline flora. Between 14,500 years and 13,000 years, finely lanminated sediments at +32 m contained successively a dominance of epiphytic mesosaline to hypersaline species and tychoplanktonic oligosaline diatoms, indicating weak fluctuations in water-level and salinity. At 13,000 years, strong changes in the diatom flora occurred; epiphytic oligo-hypersaline diatoms were replaced by planktonic meso-polysaline species. They indicate a deep salt lake (the lake reached +100 m). After 12,000 years, the lake level abruptly dropped, as suggested by fluviatile sediments with a benthic mesopolysaline diatom flora. The main lake was replaced by shallow saline ponds. A wet pulse occurred at 11,400 years, characterized by low water level (+7 m) and high salinity. This lacustrine phase remained until 10,400 yr B.P. These data indicate changes in Precipitation minus Evaporation (P-E). Our regional interpretations are based on a comparison with teh available data on the northern (Lake Titicaca) and southern (Lipez are) Bolivian Altiplano and on the northern Chilean Altiplano (Atacama Desert).     

A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental change in the Maya Lowlands of Peten, Guatemala

We used multiple variables in a sediment core from Lake Peten-Itza, Peten, Guatemala, to infer Holocene climate change and human influence on the regional environment. Multiple proxies including pollen, stable isotope geochemistry, elemental composition, and magnetic susceptibility in samples from the same core allow differentiation of natural versus anthropogenic environmental changes. Core chronology is based on AMS ¹⁴C measurement of terrestrial wood and charcoal and thus avoids the vagaries of hard-water-lake error. During the earliest Holocene, prior to 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the coring site was not covered by water and all proxies suggest that climatic conditions were relatively dry. Water covered the coring site by 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, coinciding with filling of other lakes in Peten and farther north on the Yucatan Peninsula. During the early Holocene (9000 to 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP), pollen data suggest moist conditions, but high ¹⁸O values are indicative of relatively high E/P. This apparent discrepancy may be due to a greater fractional loss of the lake's water budget to evaporation during the early stages of lake filling. Nonetheless, conditions were moist enough to support semi-deciduous lowland forest. Decrease in ¹⁸O values and associated change in ostracod species at 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP suggest a transition to even moister conditions. Decline in lowland forest taxa beginning 5780 ¹⁴C yr BP may indicate early human disturbance. By 2800 ¹⁴C yr BP, Maya impact on the environment is documented by accelerated forest clearance and associated soil erosion. Multiple proxies indicate forest recovery and soil stabilization beginning 1100 to 1000 ¹⁴C yr BP, following the collapse of Classic Maya civilization.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

A computerized geologic mapping system based on logical models of geologic structures

In this article we describe the basic framework of the computerized geologic mapping system cigma. The system, whic is based on a mathematical formulation of geologic concepts, consists of the following six subsystems: (1) input of geologic data set; (2) inference of stratigraphic sequence; (3) construction of logical models of geologic structures; (4) determination of three-dimensional geologic boundary surfaces; (5) construction of three-dimensional solid model of geologic structures; and (6) graphical presentation. Geologic structures are summarized in several tables called logical models of geologic structures. Each model is constructed automatically from input data on structural relations between geologic bodies. The model interprets the data automatically to create data files necessary to determine the shapes of geologic boundaries; it also provides a threedimensional solid model of geologic structures referring to the shapes of boundaries. As a prototype, we introduce two types of contacts corresponding to conformity and unconformity into the logical model and show that it is possible to draw a geologic map automatically. More complex geologic structures can be introduced into the geologic mapping system through further formulation of geologic structures.     

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba,Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (12–9 ka), ¹⁸O of ostracodes ranged from –16 to –5 (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water.Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ¹⁸O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ¹⁸O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such asC. rawsoni orLimnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such asL. staplini orL. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake.¹⁸O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from –4 at 8 ka to –11 at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (–20 SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ¹⁸O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (–6) after 4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After 2 ka, the ¹⁸O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between –13 and –7, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ¹³C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.     

Calibration of diatoms along a nutrient gradient in Florida Everglades Water Conservation Area-2A, USA

The relationship between diatom taxa preserved in surface soils and environmental variables at 31 sites in Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) of the Florida Everglades was explored using multivariate analyses. Surface soils were collected along a phosphorus (P) gradient and analyzed for diatoms, total P, % nitrogen (N), %carbon (C), calcium (Ca), and biogenic silica (BSi). Phosphorus varied from 315-1781 g g^-1, and was not found to be correlated with the other geochemical variables. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to examine which environmental variables correlated most closely with the distributions in diatom taxa. Canonical correspondence analysis with forward selection, constrained and partial CCA, and Monte Carlo permutation tests of significance show the most significant changes in diatom assemblages along the P gradient (p < 0.01), with additional species differences correlated with soil C, N, Ca, and BSi.Weighted-averaging (WA) regression and calibration models of diatom assemblages to P and BSi were developed. The diatom-based inference model for soil [P] had a high apparent r² (0.86) with RMSE_boot = 218 g g^-1. Indicator diatom species identified by assessing species WA optima and WA tolerance to [P], such as Nitzschia amphibia and N. palea for high [P] (~1300-1400 g^-1) and Achnanthes minutissima var. scotica and Mastogloia smithii for low [P] (~400-600 g g^-1), may be useful as monitoring tools for eutrophication in WCA-2A as well as other areas of the Everglades. Diatom assemblages analyzed by cluster analysis were related to location within WCA-2A, and dominant taxa within clusters are discussed in relation to the geochemical variables measured as well as hydrology and pH. Diversity of diatom assemblages and a Disturbance Index based on diatom data are discussed in relation to the historically P-limited Everglades ecosystem. Diatom assemblages should be very useful for reconstructions of [P] through time in the Florida Everglades, provided diatoms are well preserved in soil cores.     

Paleolimnological significance of spinose and non-spinose morphs of Pyrgophorus hibbardi (Leonard and Franzen, 1944)

The basal portion of the Ogallala Formation (=Laverne Formation) (Lower Pliocene) Beaver County, Oklahoma, contains an interesting assemblage of non-marine fossil molluscs that include both spinose and non-spinose forms of the aquatic gastropod species Pyrgophorus hibbardi. The origin and paleolimnological significance of the spinose morph has been a source of much conjecture that has influenced environmental reconstructions of this assemblage. In one hypothesis the spinose forms of P. hibbardi are assumed to be associated with brackish water conditions by analogy with some populations of a related hydrobiid Potamopyrgus jenkinsi. To test the hypothesis that the spinose forms lived under different water conditions than the non-spinose morphs, we analyzed 10 specimens each of the two varieties for stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in the shell aragonite.The mean isotope ratios for the smooth and spinose morphs show no significant difference (oxygen: t = 0.28, df = 18, P (T t) 0.78 n.s.; carbon: t = 0.96, df = 18, P (T t) 0.35 n.s). We conclude that the lack of a statistically significant difference between the means of the oxygen and carbon isotope values for the smooth and spinose morphs suggests that the two forms lived in waters having similar isotope signatures. The considerable range in oxygen isotope values recorded by both morphs of P. hibbardi, including values as high as 5–6, suggest that both morphs were associated with waters which were periodically evaporatively enriched in ¹⁸O.     

Sub-sampling unconsolidated sediments: A solution for the preparation of undistrubed thin-sections from clay‐rich sediments

Using the principles of electroosmosis, a subsampling technique for clay-rich sediments is introduced that produces undisturbed thinsections from sediment cores. The fragile sample remains in the same disposable box throughout the process, preventing collapse of its structure during subsampling, manipulation and impregnation, as well as other potential problems.     

Lacustrine oxygen isotope record of 20th-century climate change in central EuropeL evaluation of climatic controls on oxygen isotopes in precipitation

We report oxygen isotope data from a 108-yr (1885–1993) sequence with annual laminae of bio-induced authigenic calcite in a frozen core from Baldeggersee, a small lake in Central Switzerland. These isotope results provide proxy data on the isotopic composition of past precipitation in the Baldeggersee catchment region and are quantitatively compared with instrumental climate data (i.e. mean annual air temperature and atmospheric circulation pattern indices) to evaluate climatic controls on oxygen isotopes in precipitation.Monitoring the isotope hydrology of Baldeggersee demonstrates that the oxygen isotopic composition of the lake water is controlled by the isotopic composition of local atmospheric precipitation (¹⁸O_p) and that the isotopic signal of precipitation is preserved, albeit damped, in the lake calcite oxygen isotope record (¹⁸O_c). Comparison of the calcite oxygen isotope proxy for ¹⁸O_p in the catchment with historical mean annual air temperature measurements from Bern, Switzerland confirms that authigenic calcite reliably records past annual air temperature in the region. This ¹⁸O_c/temperature relationship is calculated to be 0.39/°C for the period 1900–1960, based on an isotope mass-balance model for Baldeggersee. An exception is a 0.8 anomalous negative shift in calcite ¹⁸O values since the 1960s. Possible explanations for this recent ¹⁸O_c shift, as it is not related to mean annual air temperature, include changes in ¹⁸O_p due to synoptic circulation patterns. In particular, the 0.8 negative shift coincides with a trend towards a more dominant North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This circulation pattern would tend to bring more isotopically more negative winter precipitation to the region and could account for the 0.8 offset in ¹⁸O_c data.     

1400-year cold/warm fluctuations reflected by environmental magnetism of a lake sediment core from the Chen Co, southern Tibet, China

Lake Chen Co, situated at 90°33–39E, 28°53–59N with a lake level of 4420 m asl, is an enclosed lake with 148 km² of catchment area and 40 km² of lake surface. It is mainly supplied by glacier melt water either from surface inflow or groundwater. Atmospheric precipitation is mainly concentrated in June–September. A 216-cm long lake sediment core was obtained at a site with 8 m of water depth, 800 m from the lakeshore and 1.5% of the bottom slope in this lake. The sediment core was taken by a piston sampler and was sliced with an interval of 1 cm each. ²¹⁰Pb dating measurement suggested that the average sedimentary rate was 0.16 cm yr^–1, which also was confirmed by ¹³⁷Cs peak occurrence. Magnetic analyses included low-frequency dependent susceptibility (_LF), susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetism (_ARM), the saturation isothermal remanent magnetism (SIRM), the isothermal remanent magnetism (IRM) reverse and Soft and Hard contents were performed for the sediment core. Results showed that _LF was an index for reflecting the environmental conditions, but was not sufficient to reveal details of magnetic features. This had been proved by measurements of IRM Reverse percentage and Soft and Hard magnetic minerals values. The log(SIRM/_LF) had much more information to reveal environmental changes. The _ARM/_LF might be more sensitive to the local environmental conditions because it was well able to indicate the grain-size variations of magnetic particles. In the past ca. 1400 years, the warm stages were ca. 620–740 AD, 1120–1370 AD and since ca. 1900 AD. After an intensively cold stage during ca. 1550–1690 AD, a cold-humid stage from ca. 1690–1900 AD and a warm-dry stage since ca. 1900 AD followed. Among these stages, the warmest one occurred in ca. 1120–1370 AD and the coldest stage was between ca. 1550 and 1690 AD. This result might be compared with many other research results from lake cores, ice cores and the Chinese historical documents.     

Diatoms and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population dynamics: Reconstructions of salmon-derived nutrients over the past 2,200 years in two lakes from Kodiak Island, Alaska

The return of hundreds to millions of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), which have returned from the ocean to their natal nursery lake environment to spawn, can result in significant nutrient loading. By analyzing sedimentary diatom assemblages from nursery lakes, we demonstrated that a salmon-derived nutrient signal could be traced over time and be used to infer past sockeye salmon population dynamics. We conducted a 2,200 year paleolimnological study of two Alaskan sockeye salmon nursery lakes, Karluk and Frazer lakes. The two lakes are very similar, except that sockeye salmon were only introduced into Frazer Lake in 1951 (first spawners returned in 1956). In both lakes we found a strong correspondence between diatom assemblages and the number of adult salmon spawners recorded in the historical data (40 and 70 years for Frazer and Karluk lakes, respectively). Given this robust relationship, we then used our analyses of diatoms from Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years to gain insight into salmon-derived nutrient loading changes (which are directly related to the number of sockeye salmon spawners). The diatom record from Karluk Lake recorded dramatic species changes on both decadal and century timescales, and was strongly correlated with an independent indicator of sockeye salmon abundances, ¹⁵N. Together, these data suggest pronounced variability in sockeye salmon abundances at Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years. The direct impacts of regional environmental variability were not likely responsible for the patterns apparent in Karluk Lake, as the diatom and ¹⁵N profiles from Frazer Lake were relatively stable prior to the introduction of sockeye salmon. Application of total phosphorus transfer functions to the Karluk and Frazer lakes' diatom records revealed that sockeye salmon carcasses substantially increased the trophic status in these lakes, which has important implications for the health of juvenile salmon that rear in nursery lakes. Overall, this paper illustrates the potential use of diatoms in reconstructing past sockeye salmon population dynamics, which in turn can lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms influencing abundances of sockeye salmon.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: I. An introduction to the project

We investigated paleolimnological records from a series of river deltas around the northeastern rim of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa (Tanzania and Burundi) in order to understand the history of anthropogenic activity in the lakes catchment over the last several centuries, and to determine the impact of these activities on the biodiversity of littoral and sublittoral lake communities. Sediment pollution caused by increased rates of soil erosion in deforested watersheds has caused significant changes in aquatic communities along much of the lakes shoreline. We analyzed the effects of sediment discharge on biodiversity around six deltas or delta complexes on the east coast of Lake Tanganyika: the Lubulungu River delta, Kabesi River delta, Nyasanga/Kahama River deltas, and Mwamgongo River delta in Tanzania; and the Nyamuseni River delta and Karonge/Kirasa River deltas in Burundi. Collectively, these deltas and their associated rivers were chosen to represent a spectrum of drainage-basin sizes and disturbance levels. By comparing deltas that are similar in watershed attributes (other than disturbance levels), our goal was to explore a series of historical experiments at the watershed scale, with which we could more clearly evaluate hypotheses of land use or other effects on nearshore ecosystems. Here we discuss these deltas, their geologic and physiographic characteristics, and the field procedures used for coring and sampling the deltas, and various indicators of anthropogenic impact.     

Knowledge-Driven and Data-Driven Fuzzy Models for Predictive Mineral Potential Mapping

In this paper, we describe new fuzzy models for predictive mineral potential mapping: (1) a knowledge-driven fuzzy model that uses a logistic membership function for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps and (2) a data-driven model, which uses a piecewise linear function based on quantified spatial associations between a set of evidential evidence features and a set of known mineral deposits for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps. We also describe a graphical defuzzification procedure for the interpretation of output fuzzy favorability maps. The models are demonstrated for mapping base metal deposit potential in an area in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province in the state of Rajasthan, western India. The data-driven and knowledge-driven models described in this paper predict potentially mineralized zones, which occupy less than 10% of the study area and contain at least 83% of the model and validation base metal deposits. A cross-validation of the favorability map derived from using one of the models with the favorability map derived from using the other model indicates a remarkable similarity in their results. Both models therefore are useful for predicting favorable zones to guide further exploration work.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: VII. Carbonate isotope geochemistry as a record of riverine runoff

Evaporation dominates the removal of water from Lake Tanganyika, and therefore the oxygen isotope composition of lake water has become very positive in comparison to the waters entering the lake. The surface water in Lake Tanganyika has remained relatively unchanged over the last 30 years with a seasonal range of +3.2 to +3.5 VSMOW. Water from small rivers entering the lake seems to have a ¹⁸O value between –3.5 and –4.0, based on scattered measurements. The two largest catchments emptying into the lake deliver water that has a ¹⁸O value between these two extremes. This large contrast is the basis of a model presented here that attempts to reconstruct the history of runoff intensity based on the ¹⁸O of carbonate shells from Lake Tanganyika cores. In order to use biogenic carbonates to monitor changes in the ¹⁸O of mixing-zone water, however, the oxygen isotope fractionation between water and shell carbonate must be well understood. The relatively invariant environmental conditions of the lake allow us to constrain the fractionation of both oxygen and carbon isotope ratios. Although molluskan aragonitic shell ¹⁸O values are in agreement with published mineral-water fractionations, ostracode calcite is 1.2 more positive than that of inorganic calcite precipitated under similar conditions. Ostracode shell ¹⁸O data from two cores from central Lake Tanganyika suggest that runoff decreased in the first half of this millennium and has increased in the last century. This conclusion is poorly constrained, however, and much more work needs to be done on stable isotope variation in both the waters and carbonates of Lake Tanganyika. We also compared the ¹³C of shells against predicted values based solely on the ¹³C of lake water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The ostracode Mecynocypria opaca is the only ostracode or mollusk that falls within the predicted range. This suggests that M. opaca has potential for reconstructing the carbon isotope ratio of DIC in Lake Tanganyika, and may be a useful tool in the study of the history of the lakes productivity and carbon cycle.     

Natural Geological Weighing Lysimeters: Calibration Tools for Satellite and Ground Surface Gravity Monitoring of Subsurface Water-Mass Change

Increased accuracy in measuring temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field allow inprinciple the use of gravity observations to deduce subsurface water-mass changes. This canbe with respect to a small area, or as a larger spatial average of water mass change usinggravity observations from low-altitude satellites, such as the forthcoming GRACE mission.At both scales, there is a need to validate gravity-based estimates against field recordings ofactual subsurface water-mass variations. In practice, this could prove difficult because thespatial integral of all water-storage change components can be subject to considerable fieldmeasurement error. An alternative approach to the validation process is proposed by whichsuitable geological formations are utilized as giant weighing devices to directly measure area-integratedwater-mass changes. The existence of such natural geological weighing lysimetersis demonstrated using observations from a replicated experimental site in New Zealand. Sitesof this type could be used to verify water-storage change estimates derived from sensitiveground surface gravity instrumentation. In addition, geological lysimeters could be used tomake local checks on the accuracy of any estimated regional water-mass time series, whichis proposed for satellite calibration. The land area weighed by a geological lysimeter increaseswith formation depth and it is speculated that recordings made at oil well depth may allowdirect monitoring of subsurface water mass changes at the regional scale.     

Probability Estimates of Field Areas and Trapped Oil Volumes

A portion of a sedimentary basin is subdivided conceptually into hexagons of equal area. The area of each hexagon is equal to the minimum area an oil field should have to be commercial. Hexagons can be full of oil or empty. A field size 1 consists of a cell with oil surrounded by six empty cells; a field size 2 consists of two adjacent cells with oil surrounded by eight empty cells, etc. Principles of Percolation Theory are used to determine the probability distribution of the areas of the oil fields existing in this portion of the basin. The only piece of information necessary to determine this probability distribution is the Success Ratio (number of successful exploration wells/total number of exploration wells drilled in this portion of the basin). This approach has several practical applications.A probabilistic model is introduced to predict to which extent potential oil traps are filled with oil. The model assumes that the probability that an oil unit will end up in a particular trap, is proportional to the surface area of the trap. The model predicts that independently of the distribution of the trap volumes, there will be a critical trap volume. All the traps having a volume less than this critical volume, will be filled to spill point. An equation is deduced to predict, for all traps having a volume greater than the critical, the volume of oil that can be encountered in the trap, provided the volume of the trap is known.     

Recent environmental changes inferred from the sediments of small lakes in Yellowstone's northern range (Engstromet al., 1991)

Sedimentation rate data of Engstromet al. (1991) were analyzed in relation to the elevation of the eight ponds studied. The ... asynchroneity of the stratigraphic changes among the lakes ... that they noted was transformed into a pattern of time-transgressive change of sedimentation rate with elevation. Sediment units representing increasing (and decreasing) sedimentation rate and accelerating (and decelerating) sediment accumulation were correlated from pond to pond, suggesting that the sediment-producing condition somehow moved upslope over time at a rate of 3.4 to >5 m yr^–1. Climatic data appear not to explain this monotonic pattern, but dendrochronological data and elk population numbers suggest that ungulate foraging patterns might. Engstromet al. (1991) concluded that ...the lake-sediment records in the northern range do not convincingly show systematic direct or indirect effects of ungulate grazing during the history of the Park. Reinterpretation of these sediment data suggests that detailed reanalysis might lead to a different conclusion.     

Variation in the composition of Lake Bonneville marl: a potential key to lake-level fluctuations and paleoclimate

Lake Bonneville marl provides a stratigraphic record of lake history preserved in its carbonate minerals and stable isotopes. We have analyzed the marl in shallow cores taken at three localities in the Bonneville basin. Chronology for the cores is provided by dated volcanic ashes, ostracode biostratigraphy, and a distinctive lithologic unit believed to have been deposited during and immediately after the Bonneville Flood.A core taken at Monument Point at the north shore of Great Salt Lake encompasses virtually the entire Bonneville lake cycle, including the 26.5 ka Thiokol basaltic ash at the base and deposits representing the overflowing stage at the Provo shoreline at the top of the core. Two cores from the Old River Bed area near the threshold between the Sevier basin and the Great Salt Lake basin (the main body of Lake Bonneville) represent deposition from the end of the Stansbury oscillation ( 20 ka) to post-Provo time ( 13 ka), and one core from near Sunstone Knoll in the Sevier basin provides a nearly complete record of the period when Lake Bonneville flooded the Sevier basin (20–13 ka).In all cores, percent calcium carbonate, the aragonite to calcite ratio, and percent sand were measured at approximately 2-cm intervals, and ¹⁸O and ¹³C were determined in one core from the Old River Bed area. The transgressive period from about 20 ka to 15 ka is represented in all cores, but the general trends and the details of the records are different, probably as a result of water chemistry and water balance differences between the main body and the Sevier basin because they were fed by different rivers and had different hypsometries. The Old River Bed marl sections are intermediate in position and composition between the Monument Point and Sunstone Knoll sections. Variations in marl composition at the Old River Bed, which are correlated with lake-level changes, were probably caused by changes in the relative proportions of water from the two basins, which were caused by shifts in water balance in the lake.This is the second paper in a series of papers published in this issue on Climatic and Tectonic Rhythms in Lake Deposits.