STUDY ON FUNCTION OF COMPONENTS OF DYNAMIC SYSTEM OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPED REGION —A Case Study of Foshan in Guangdong Province

In the forming of the Dynamic System of Tourism Development(DSTD)in developed regions from the view of supply side,the Dhlphi Method and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are used to count the weight of each component of the DSTD.It has been found that the attraction subsystem is the most important one of the three subsystems at the first hierarchical level of DSTD,which means that tourist attractions are always the principal factors for regional tourism development,even in developed regions.But it is also noteworthy that the significance of the attraction subsystem is not dominant in the DSTD.At the second hierarchical level,the physical attraction subsystem rand No.1,while the weight of the non-physical attraction subsystem is just a little larger than the weight of the hardware subsystem and that of software subsystem.And the weights of the three components in the medium subsystem are similar.The top 3 factors at the third hierarchical level are scenic spot,location and regional economic impact.The result verifies the conclusions of qualitative analysis,which depends on the market research and the study of historical date,that the most important compo-nent of the DSTD in Foshan is the impact of the developed economy.Knowing the weight of each component of the DSTD can be helpful to make out the most useful force,furthermore to determine the future orientation for regional tourism develop-ment.     

接驳地铁站的共享单车时空均衡性分析与吸引区域优化

共享单车是接驳地铁出行的最有效选择之一,但共享单车的时空分布不均问题对使用者和管理者造成了很大的不便,尤其是早高峰期间出现这种问题更会大大降低2个交通系统的运行效率。因此,研究用于接驳地铁出行的共享单车的时空均衡性特点对提升早高峰期间的通勤效率有一定意义。为了了解接驳地铁骑行的时空均衡性特点,本文以厦门市作为实验区,将厦门市早高峰期间接驳地铁站的骑行作为主要研究对象,基于出行OD提出了新的地铁站吸引区域建立方法,基于出行特点提出了考虑地铁站点的单车聚类方法。本文还从潮汐比统计角度和吸引区域角度对各个地铁站的早高峰整体出行均衡性做了分析,从时空角度对早高峰中不同时段的地铁站接驳骑行的时空均衡性做了分析,通过分析得出了3种角度下各个地铁站点均衡性的相似点与不同点,结果表明：(1)根据潮汐比特点,地铁站对骑行的接驳职能可划分为4类,分别为起始型,均衡型,到达型和不适合接驳地铁出行型,反映了各地铁站点的总体接驳特征;(2)地铁站对接驳骑行的吸引区域与潮汐比特点有所差别,其主要影响因素为地铁站点的地理位置及周边土地利用类型;(3)对于时空均衡性分析结果而言,潮汐比对时空均衡性层面没有显著影响,其...     

Multiple Spatial Scale Analysis of the Niche Characteristics of the Rhododendron dauricum Plant Communities in Northeast China

This study aims to verify the concept of niches at multiple spatial scales in plant communities. To this end, we analyzed the niche characteristic of Rhododendron dauricum plant communities in Northeast China at three spatial scales. At the local scale, we calculated the Importance Value(IV) of species in five communities in the north of the Da Hinggan Mountains. At the intermediate scale, we examined five communities in their entirety, calculated the niche breadth of the species, and integrated niche overlap and interspecific association to analyze interspecific relationships. Further, the generalized additive model(GAM) was used to analyze the impact of topography and soil factors on niche characteristics. At the regional scale, we analyzed the geographical distribution of dominant species of R. dauricum plant communities in Northeast China and used principal component analysis(PCA) to analyze the impact of geographical and climate factors on species distribution. The results show that at the local scale, the IV of the species in each community varies widely. At the intermediate scale, species with a wide niche breadth tend to have a high value for IV. Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, R. dauricum, Ledum palustre, and Vaccinium vitis-idaea had a relatively wide niche breadth and a high niche overlap, and the interspecific associations were almost all positive. Elevation and soil nutrients were the most dominant environmental factors. At the regional scale, species with a wide niche breadth tend to have a wide range of distribution, and temperature and precipitation were the most dominant environmental factors. This study suggests that the niche characteristics at three scales are both related and different. Niche characteristics at the local scale were various and labile, and niche characteristics at the intermediate and regional scales were relatively regular. These results show some degree of consistency with previous studies from an evolutionary perspective. The action mechanisms of these communities are related to differences in the dominant environmental factors. In addition, the integration of niche overlap and interspecific association determine interspecific relationships more accurately.     

飞机积冰防御系统及其模糊综合评判

基于系统安全分层次模型(Reason模型),设计出减少积冰对飞行安全影响的积冰防御分层次系统,利用层次分析法(AHP法)确定测评指标权重集,并采用模糊综合评判法建立了积冰防御系统综合评估模型,旨在避免人为因素的主观片面性.计算结果表明,系统综合评判等级为较好.     

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RESEARCH ON REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPED REGIONS-THE CASE OF SHANGHAI-NANJING-HANGZHOU AREA

The developed regions are faced with the problems of regional comprehensive development, and the research on regional comprehensive development has become a trend in the world. To optimize regional industrial structure and to select and determine scientifically the spatial development strategy of regional industries are the central themes to be solved for the research on regional comprehensive development in the developed regions. This paper proposed the basis for optimizing regional industrial structure, and the main factors of selecting and determining the regional leading industries. Based on this, the paper puts forward the leading industries and the spatial development strategy in Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou area in the future ten or more years. Combined with the situation of Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou area, the paper also discusses some problems of locating superior developing axis to benefit the rational distribution of regional productive forces.     

REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF CAPITAL MARKET OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CHINA’S MAINLAND

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Regional ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors in underdeveloped regions: a case study in Yunnan Province,China

In order to clarify regional ecological security status and formation mechanism of regional ecological security barriers in underdeveloped regions of China, we took Yunnan province as a case to evaluate its regional ecological security by using entropy matter-element model, comprehensive index and GIS spatial method, and we diagnosed its obstacle factors through obstacle degree model. We found a low overall level of regional ecological security in Yunnan. Only Kunming fell into the good level, 68% of the regions were below the critical safe level. For the vast majority of regions in Yunnan, their regional ecological security was unstable. The indexes related to per capita resources, geological and topography environment, economic, and technology were at the unsafe or dangerous level. The indexes related to urban expansion, level of income, cultivated land quality were at the level of critical safety. The indexes concerning urban management capacity, air quality and water environment were at the good or ideal level. Yunnan’s regional ecological security was not good due to natural obstructive environment itself, simultaneously lower backward economic and social level restricted the ability of ecological security response to manage ragile ecological environment. The results of the composite index were roughly consistent with those of the entropy weight matter-element model. The mean values of the classification index, from high to low, were: the state index > the response index > the pressure index. The state index and the response index had a significant mutual promotion to each other. The regions with good composite index, state index and response index mainly distributed in the central regions of Yunnan Province. Spatial autocorrelation of regional ecological security level in Yunnan was not obvious. Water resources, economic and social development were main obstacle factors of the regional ecological security. When distinguishing with obstacle type, Kunming belonged to natural ecological environment barrier type, while other regions belonged to economic and social barrier type.     

中国居民预期寿命及其影响因素的空间差异分析

良好的健康和人类福祉是联合国提出的可持续发展目标之一,提高人口预期寿命是迈向此目标的重要一步。由于中国城市在自然环境和社会发展方面有所差异,因此理解不同城市居民的预期寿命主要受何种因素的影响是制定城市公共卫生策略的关键。本研究基于2015年中国286个城市的有效数据,利用探索性回归、普通最小二乘回归、地理加权回归筛选与预期寿命最相关的影响因素并探索其空间差异,再通过二阶聚类将城市分类,以针对性地提出每类城市政策建议。结果显示：① 经济发展,教育条件和医疗设施条件对预期寿命有显著的积极影响,平均海拔和环境污染则具有负面影响;② 东南地区的经济发展对当地居民的预期寿命影响程度更大;东北和西南地区的医疗设施条件对其居民预期寿命促进程度更高;北部地区的教育条件对当地居民预期寿命影响比其他地区更高;平均海拔对西部地区居民预期寿命的影响最大;西北地区居民的预期寿命则更易受到环境污染带来的负面影响;③ 根据空间差异将城市分为3类,其居民预期寿命关键影响因素依次是经济发展和环境污染、教育条件、医疗设施,每类城市的城市管理者应重点关注不同因素来提升居民的预期寿命。     

长江三峡地区区域地壳稳定性评价

区域地壳稳定性是进行重大工程建设时必须研究的课题。本文分析了三峡地区区域地壳结构、地壳应力状态、地壳形变、断裂活动性及地震活动性等影响地壳稳定性的因素。利用两级模糊综合评判方法,对该区地壳稳定性作了分区评价。按区域稳定的四级划分标准,在三峡地区划分出三个稳定区、两个基本稳定区和两个次不稳定区。三峡工程坝址位于稳定区内,库区跨越了基本稳定区和次不稳定区。     

精准水稻种植信息系统的分析与设计

精准农业(Precision Farming)是美国20世纪80年代初提出的农业经营概念,它的最大特点是充分考虑农田特征的空间变异,根据农田性质的空间差异对农作物实行不同的管理措施,如变量施肥、变量灌溉等,其目标是获得最大的经济收益和最少的环境污染。水稻精准种植是精准农业思想的具体实现,在实施过程中需要使用的信息包括:GPS定位信息、农田地理信息、田间采样信息、农业气象信息、作物产量信息、作物长势信息和水稻栽培专家知识等。为管理和处理这些信息并使之为水稻种植服务,水稻精准种植信息系统应当由属性数据管理、农田空间数据管理、专家系统、遥感数据处理和管理决策等子系统构成。为便于系统的开发、完善和推广,整个系统基于组件式地理信息系统开发工具,用VB编程实现。     

基于遥感的全国GDP 1km格网的空间化表达

针对资源环境研究领域对空间型社会经济数据的需求,在我国经济社会的区域差异的综合分析基础上,对现有的统计型行政单元主要社会经济发展指标国内生产总值(GDP)进行空间化模拟,建立了统一空间坐标参数、统一数据格式、统一的数据和元数据标准的全国1km格网水平社会经济空间数据库。利用1995年遥感数据建立的1:100000比例尺土地利用格局分布图,综合分析人类活动形成的土地利用状态与GDP大小的空间互动规律,建立影响经济发展的关键因素评估模型,通过一、二、三产业GDP与土地利用类型的空间关联性,分区建立1995年县级GDP和土地利用格局的空间关联度模型库,实现在1km格网的社会经济数据的空间定量模拟。     

大都市圈的凝聚力与竞争力

都市圈的形成是自然和社会因素长期共同作用的成果,是人类文明的进步。都市圈战略是中国未来区域发展的重要战略。随着全球经济竞争日益激烈,通过调整空间结构来扩展经济效益空间是大势所趋。目前,国内掀起了规划建设都市圈的热潮。然而,从世界都市圈发展的经验和教训来看,人口、经济发展集中于沿海超大城市的现象越来越突出,反映出地区经济发展的不平衡和对海岸带的依赖。都市圈的战略规划应当遵循社会经济发展的自然规律。都市圈的形成是较长时期的历史积淀结果。它们早在农业经济时代就是人口密集、水网发达地区的河港,近代工业经济发展时期,又成为面向大洋的海港,在信息时代,必须再向现代化的航空港和信息港的方向发展。多港融合,才能具备世界级自由港的功能。这是区域经济发展的终极目标。从地缘经济来看,大都市圈一般具备明显的地域经济优势,具有明显的金融中心龙头效应,占有GDP的绝对比重。随着城市通勤圈的不断扩张和大陆腹地的袭夺,大都市圈通过不断的城市扩张,打破了行政区划的时空分布模式,推动了区域经济重组,并促使其向跨国经济发展。都市圈的发展极不平衡,各具特点,总体上表现出发展的阶段性和空间分异的规律性。就目前比较成熟的三大都市圈,从地缘关系上看,京津冀都市圈具有人文优势,珠三角背靠国际大都市香港,具有亚洲优势,而长三角更具“蝴蝶效应”潜质,展现出吸引全球的世界魅力。都市圈内部各城市之间也存在着激烈的中心城市竞争。因城市化的天时(经济发展水平、发展机遇)、地利(区位优势)与人和(人为因素影响程度)的基础不同,都市圈凝聚力和竞争力的提高,需要在科学发展观指引下,因势利导,统筹规划,因地制宜,优势互补,去跨越各自发展中的门槛。都市圈普遍存在大都市的通病,而且应急反应能力十分脆弱。在都市圈规划和发展过程中,必须针对目前存在的各种生态环境问题,从都市圈整体可持续发展的角度,统筹规划,有针对性地研究制定解决方案和应急预案,防患未然。     

Basic characteristics, spatial disparity and its major influencing factors of service industry in China

Based on the analysis of its basic characteristics, this article investigated the disparities of Chinese service industry among the three regions (the eastern China, the western China and the middle China) and inter-provincial disparities of that in the three regions by Theil coefficient and cluster analysis. Then, major factors influencing its spatial disparity were explored by correlation analysis and regression analysis. The conclusions could be drawn as follows. 1) The development of Chinese service industry experienced three phases since the 1980s: rapid growth period, slow growth period, and recovery period. From the proportion of value-added and employment, its development was obviously on the low level. From the composition of industrial structure, traditional service sectors were dominant, but modern service sectors were lagged. Moreover, its spatial disparity was distinct. 2) The level of Chinese service industry was divided into five basic regional ranks: well-developed, developed, relatively-developed, underdeveloped and undeveloped regions. As a whole, the overall structure of spatial disparity was steady in 1990–2005. But there was notable gradient disparity in the interior structure of service industry among different provinces. Furthermore, the overall disparity expanded rapidly in 1990–2005. The inter-provincial disparity of service industry in the three regions, especially in the eastern China, was bigger than the disparity among the three regions. And 3) the level of economic development, the level of urban development, the scale of market capacity, the level of transportation and telecommunication, and the abundance of human resources were major factors influencing the development of Chinese service industry.     

1978-2011年间中国区域消费水平的时空演变

区域消费水平是经济发展的重要动力。本文以1978-2011年间我国各省区的人均消费品零售额表征区域消费水平,在我国区域消费水平差异测度的基础上,对区域消费水平差异的时间序列值进行突变点检测,进而将我国区域消费水平变化划分为1978-1986年和1986-2011年2个阶段。通过利用传统马尔科夫链及空间马尔科夫链方法,分别构建人均消费水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,对1978-1986年与1986-2011年2个阶段的区域消费水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）区域消费水平在2个研究时段内的变化均存在着“俱乐部趋同”现象,无论是低消费水平与高消费水平区域均沿着最初类型稳步演进。（2）区域消费水平变化受到来自邻域消费水平背景的影响,使得其趋同的过程在空间上不独立。（3）区域间消费水平相互作用呈现出显著的东西分异特征,东部地区多为区域自身消费水平与邻域消费水平同时向上转移的状态,西部地区多为向下转移的状态,而中部地区多为平稳分布,邻域消费水平的状态变化较大。     

轻小型无人机遥感组网飞行的高程安全监测冗余 容错算法研究

针对轻小型无人机遥感组网飞行的高程安全要求,本文设计了基于INS/GPS/气压计的多源信息冗余容错测量方案。通过分析轻小型无人机遥感组网应用时复杂多变的工作环境对可靠性与容错能力的要求,采用了联邦滤波算法进行多传感器冗余信息融合。本文分析了联邦滤波结构及算法,通过计算得出了系统容错性好以及滤波精度高的信息分配系数取值原则,并在此基础上提出一种基于故障特征信息熵的Pignistic概率转换容错信息分配方法。该算法可得到清晰准确的故障概率分布,根据此概率分布运用信息熵来确定系统故障概率,进而结合信息分配系数的取值原则得出组合测量系统各个子系统的权重比。通过算例仿真验证了不同信息分配系数主要影响子系统的估计误差和容错性能,而对联邦主滤波器的融合估计误差影响较小,说明了本文的容错信息分配方法能够为各子系统分量提供可靠的分配系数。在旋翼无人机平台上的定高悬停实验证明了该方法能将无人机高程误差减小为传统联邦滤波算法的四分之一,进一步说明了该方法能提高无人机高程安全监测系统的精度及容错性。     

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Green Total-factor Water-use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China

In this study, we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE) which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization. Then we measured the GTFWUE of 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(hereafter provinces) in China(not including Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan as no data) from 2000 to 2018 using a minimum distance to the strong frontier model that contained an undesirable output. We further analyzed the regional ...     

贵州省喀斯特地区泥石流灾害易发性评价

贵州省独特的喀斯特山地环境对地质灾害的孕育有其特有的作用机理。本文初选了10个相关因子进行GIS的方差分析及相关性分析,以筛选喀斯特山区泥石流灾害的主要影响因子及灾害易发性评价。结果表明,研究区内土壤侵蚀因子对泥石流灾害的贡献作用最为显著,断层的影响作用不明显。土壤侵蚀、坡度、坡向、岩石性质、土地利用方式、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、到沟谷的距离及>25 mm日数8个影响因子,具有良好的独立性和代表性,是研究区内泥石流易发性评价的最佳指标;泥石流主要分布在贵州西部云贵高原边境、北部大娄山、东北雾灵山及苗岭等地带,占全省面积的29.51%,贵州中部及东南部泥石流易发程度较低;极高易发区泥石流的分布密度是极低易发区的19倍,其主要的环境特征表现为坡度大、植被覆盖率较低,旱地与工矿用地分布多,土壤侵蚀严重;加强旱地、工矿用地及低植被覆盖区的合理利用及管理,是减少泥石流灾害发生的有效途径。     

Regional Innovation System: Theoretical Approach and Empirical Study of China

1INTRODUCTIONCOOKEetal.(1996)conductedadetailedsurveyontheconceptsofregionalinnovationsystem(RIS)aftertherevolutionarystudyofFREEMAN(1987)andLUNDVALL(1992)onthenationalinnovationsys-tem.COOKEpointedoutthatRISisagroupofgeo-graphicallyadjacententerprises,R&Dinstitutesanduniversities,whichsupportsandproducesinnovation.WIIGandWOOD(1999)arguedthatthebroadsenseofRISshouldalsoincludethelocalgovernmentsandlocalservicessuchasfinancialbusinessinstitutes.BasedonthereviewofRISconcept…     

Nodes and Field of Tourist Origins to Ancient Village——A Case Study of Huangcheng Village in Shanxi Province of China

Based on Hagget's theory of spatial structure,researches on the nodes and field of tourist origins to Huang-cheng Village in Shanxi Province of China have been explored.Nodal hierarchy structure of tourist origins is analyzed with cluster analysis and the gravity model.And field of tourist origins is analyzed with attraction radius index(R)and geography concentration index(G).In the field analysis,R and G of Huangcheng Village are compared with Xidi Village that is a world heritage located in Huangshan City of Anhui Province in China.According to comparison of loca-tions of two areas,influential factors for field area of Huangcheng Village are identified.It is concluded that:1)cluster analysis and gravity model can be complementary methods to each other for nodal hierarchy structure analysis of tour-ist origins;and 2)as far as location is concerned,the weak intensity effect of tourism resources in the tourist region is a major cause for explaining why tourist origins to Huangcheng Village are mainly its neighboring areas.Moreover,it is suggested that the regional effect of tourist resources should be regarded as a component of destination attractiveness when applying gravity model.