Hydrology of Dali Lake in central-eastern Inner Mongolia and Holocene East Asian monsoon variability

Lacustrine records from the northern margin of the East Asian monsoon generate a conflicting picture of Holocene monsoonal precipitation change. To seek an integrated view of East Asian monsoon variability during the Holocene, an 8.5-m-long sediment core recovered in the depocenter of Dali Lake in central-eastern Inner Mongolia was analyzed at 1-cm intervals for total organic and inorganic carbon concentrations. The data indicate that Dali Lake reached its highest level during the early Holocene (11,500–7,600 cal yr BP). The middle Holocene (7,600–3,450 cal yr BP) was characterized by dramatic fluctuations in the lake level with three intervals of lower lake stands occurring 6,600–5,850, 5,100–4,850 and 4,450–3,750 cal yr BP, respectively. During the late Holocene (3,450 cal yr BP to present), the lake displayed a general shrinking trend with the lowest levels at three episodes of 3,150–2,650, 1,650–1,150 and 550–200 cal yr BP. We infer that the expansion of the lake during the early Holocene would have resulted from the input of the snow/ice melt, rather than the monsoonal precipitation, in response to the increase in summer solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere. We also interpret the rise in the lake level since ca. 7,600 cal yr BP as closely related to increased monsoonal precipitation over the lake region resulting from increased temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and a westward shifted and strengthened Kuroshio Current in the western Pacific. Moreover, high variability of the East Asian monsoon climate since 7,600 cal yr BP, marked by large fluctuations in the lake level, might have been directly associated with variations in the intensity and frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.     

A record of vegetation dynamics and lake level changes from Lake Emakat,northern Tanzania,during the last c. 1200 years

Analyses of down-core variations in pollen and charcoal in two short cores of lake sediment and wood samples taken from the in situ remains of Nuxia congesta from Lake Emakat, a hydrologically-closed volcanic crater lake occupying the Empakaai Crater in northern Tanzania, have generated evidence of past vegetation change and lake level fluctuations. Eight AMS radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dates on bulk samples of lake sediment provide a chronological framework for the two cores and indicate that the sediment record analysed incorporates the last c. 1200 years. The in situ remains of a Nuxia congesta tree, now standing in deep water, were dated with three additional AMS ¹⁴C dates, suggesting tree growth within the interval ∼1500–1670 AD. Down-core variations in pollen from terrestrial taxa, particularly the montane forest trees Hagenia abyssinica and Nuxia congesta, indicate a broad period of generally more arid conditions in the catchment to c. 1200 AD and at a prolonged period between c. 1420 and 1680 AD. Variations in pollen from plants in lake margin vegetation indicate low lake levels, presumably as a result of reduced effective precipitation, contemporary with indications of relatively dry conditions mentioned above, but also during the late 18th and the late 19th centuries. The presence of charcoal throughout both cores indicates the frequent occurrence of vegetation fires. An increase in burning, evident in the charcoal data and dated to the early to mid second millennium AD, could relate to an expansion of human population levels and agricultural activity in the region.     

A note on the lake level variations of Nam Co,south-central Tibetan Plateau from 2005 to 2019

Tibetan lake levels are sensitive to global change, and their variations have a large impact on the environment, local agriculture and animal husbandry practices. While many remote sensing data of Tibetan lake level changes have been reported, few are from in-situ measurements. This note presents the first in-situ lake level time series of the central Tibetan Plateau. Since 2005, daily lake level observations have been performed at Lake Nam Co, one of the largest on the Tibetan Plateau. The interannual lake level variations show an overall increasing trend from 2006 to 2014, a rapid decrease from 2014 to 2017, and a surge from 2017 to 2018. The annual average lake level of the hydrological year (May-April) rose 66 cm from 2006 to 2014, dropped 59 cm from 2014 to 2017, and increased 20 cm from 2017 to 2018, resulting in a net rise of 27 cm or an average rate of about 2 cm per year. Compared to the annual average lake level based on the calendar year, it is better to use the annual average lake level based on the hydrological year to determine the interannual lake level changes. As the lake level was stable in May, it is appropriate to compare May lake levels when examining interannual lake level changes with fewer data. Overall, remote sensing results agree well with the in-situ lake level observations; however, some significant deviations exist. In the comparable 2006-2009 period, the calendar-year average lake level observed in-situ rose by 10-11 cm per year, which is lower than the ICESat result of 18 cm per year.     

16 ka以来黄土高原东亚夏季风变化的环境磁学记录

末次冰消期以来的气候变化是第四纪古气候研究的重要内容.本文对黄土高原西部和平镇剖面16 ka以来的黄土沉积序列(厚度为3.5 m)进行了高分辨率环境磁学研究.结果表明:该黄土序列的磁性颗粒主要由细颗粒磁铁矿主导.其磁化率和频率磁化率具有相同的变化特征,与黄土高原中部和东部的黄土磁化率变化机制一致,即黄土高原西部和平镇黄...     

过去1500 a亚洲夏季风降水的强迫特征

基于通用地球系统模式(CESM)进行了 4组长达1500 a的模拟试验(全强迫试验,控制试验,自然外强迫试验和人类活动外强迫试验).在评估模式模拟亚洲夏季风降水可靠性的基础上,对模拟结果进行10～100 a的带通滤波以获取年代—百年际亚洲夏季风降水信号.主要结论为:①过去1500 a亚洲夏季风降水强度存在显著的约15 ...     

Hydrogen isotope ratios of individual lipids in lake sediments as novel tracers of climatic and environmental change: a surface sediment test

We determined hydrogen isotope ratios of modern lake-waters and individual lipids from surface sediments of 36 lakes in the eastern North America. The lakes selected lie on two transects (south–north transect from Florida to Ontario and east–west transect from Wisconsin to South Dakota) and encompass large temperature and moisture gradients, and a wide range of lake water δD values (>100‰). The study allows a rigorous test of the applicability of using δD values of sedimentary lipids as paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental proxies. We examined a range of lipids including C₁₇ n-alkane, straight chain fatty acids, phytol and sterols in both free extracts and ester-bound fractions in the solvent extracted sediments. Useful isotopic indicators are expected to show a linear correlation and constant fractionation factor between their δD values in surface sediments and modern lake water. Our results demonstrate that several lipid compounds, free and ester-bound palmitic acid (16:0), C₁₇ n-alkane, and phytol are useful candidates for paleoclimate reconstructions, in addition to two sterols that have been suggested previously (. Compound-specific D/H ratios of lipid biomarkers from sediments as a proxy for environmental and climatic conditons. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 65: 213–222). Authigenic or biogenic carbonate in sediments is conventional material for paleoclimatic study using ocean and lake sediments. However, because majority of lake sediments do not contain suitable carbonate materials for isotopic study, hydrogen isotope ratios of these lipids provide invaluable new sources of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information.     

亚洲夏季风北部边缘带变化及中高纬度行星波对其影响

本文使用1961—2016年NCEP1再分析资料和GPCC全球降水分析资料,确定了亚洲夏季风北部边缘带的空间范围,分析了季风边缘带的南北边界位置、降水、面积的相互关系和年代/际变化特征,讨论了造成季风边缘带夏季降水异常的影响因子。主要结论如下：亚洲夏季风北部边缘带平均位置位于青藏高原中部经黄土高原和中国东北地区向亚洲东岸延伸的带状区域上,根据下垫面性质、区域生态环境和气候特征,将季风北边缘带划分为青藏高原区（85°E~105°E）、黄土高原区（105°E~115°E）和中国东北区（115°E~135°E）3段,季风边缘带降水的年际变化与其南边界位置有显著的正相关,青藏高原季风边缘带面积变化与其南界位置显著负相关,黄土高原季风边缘带和东北季风边缘带面积与北边界位置显著正相关,且3段季风边缘带的位置、面积、降水均有明显的年际、年代际变化特征。季风边缘带夏季降水偏少与欧亚中高纬对流层上层自西向东传播的欧亚（EU）遥相关波列密切相关,季风边缘带夏季降水偏少时期,亚洲低纬度地区对流活动偏弱、非洲东岸近赤道地区200 hPa异常辐合可能造成索马里急流和亚洲夏季风强度整体偏弱,200 hPa亚洲急流强度弱且位置偏北,500 hPa中国北方受西风带异常高压控制,东亚夏季风降水主要集中在中国南方地区,季风边缘带夏季降水异常偏少。季风边缘带夏季降水偏多与欧亚中高纬对流层上层沿亚洲急流向东传播的丝绸之路（SRP）波列密切相关,200 hPa、500 hPa环流形势与季风边缘带夏季降水偏少时期基本相反,东亚夏季风降水空间分布呈北多南少特征,季风边缘带夏季降水异常偏多。     

流域水热条件和植被状况对青海湖水位的影响

湖泊是陆地水资源的重要组成部分,也是局地气候和全球环境变化的敏感指示器之一。湖泊面积增加和水位的变化直接反映了流域内水量平衡变化过程,对区域和全球的气候变化的反映较为敏感。利用线性趋势法对青海湖流域长时间序列气象、水文资料以及流域水热条件和植被生长状况进行分析研究,利用皮尔逊相关系数法计算了各因素与湖水位的相关关系,旨在定量评估区域气象、水文、植被等要素的变化对和湖泊水位变化过程的贡献,开展细致的青海湖水位变化特征的影响因子探讨与分析。结果表明：该流域气候呈现显著的暖湿化趋势,其中流域年降水量总体上呈现弱的增加态势,气候倾向率为10.8 mm·（10 a）^-1;流域年平均气温呈显著的升高趋势（P <0.01）。流域年可能蒸散率和年实际蒸散波动较大,年实际蒸散虽有波动但增加趋势非常明显（P <0.01）。流域净第一性生产力（P）平均值为2.86 t DM·hm^-2·a^-1,呈现显著的增加趋势（P <0.01）。从1961年开始湖水位呈现逐年波动下降的趋势,到2004年水位最低（P<0.01）;2004—2015年的近10 a连续上升,上升速率达14.4 m·（10 a）^-1（P <0.01）。流域气温升高、降水量增加,流域气候呈显著的暖湿化特征,入湖河流径流量也呈现出弱的增加态势;气候暖湿化特征导致流域生物温度增加,植被生长状况得到改善,[WTBX]NPP[WTBZ]显著增加。年降水量增多,河流径流量增大,湖水位抬升;前一年的降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量、NPP和蒸发量对湖水位的影响更大;NDVI和NPP的增加反映流域植被生长状况得到好转,从而增加了流域植被水土保持和水源涵养能力,对湖水位产生间接的影响。降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量和NPP对青海湖水位起到正反馈效应,而蒸发量对湖水位主要起负反馈效应,年降水量和年径流量是湖水位变化的最直接的影响因子。     

The effects of precipitation timing on sagebrush steppe vegetation

Changes in precipitation patterns and inputs have the potential to cause major changes in productivity, composition, and diversity of terrestrial plant communities. Vegetation response to altered timing of precipitation was assessed during a 7-year experiment in an Artemisia tridentata spp. wyomingensis community in the northern Great Basin, USA. Four permanent rainout shelters excluded natural rainfall, with seasonal distribution of precipitation controlled with the use of an overhead sprinkler system. Precipitation treatments under each shelter were WINTER, SPRING, and CURRENT. The WINTER treatment received 80% of its water between October and March; in the SPRING treatment 80% of total water was applied between April and July; and the CURRENT treatment received precipitation matching the site's long-term (50 years) distribution pattern. A CONTROL treatment, placed outside each shelter replicate, received natural precipitation inputs. CURRENT, WINTER, and CONTROL treatments had similar in soil water-content patterns and thus, there were few consistent differences in vegetation response. The SPRING treatment resulted in more bare-ground and lower plant productivity compared to other shelter treatments. This result contrasted with our initial hypothesis that shallower-rooted grasses would gain a competitive advantage over shrubs if precipitation was shifted from winter to spring. Our results also demonstrated the resilience of these communities to climate perturbation as many of the vegetation shifts did not begin until the fourth year after treatments were applied.     

西北地区东部季风摆动区大气边界层高度对夏季风活动和季风降水的响应特征

大气边界层高度影响着近地层能量、水分的发展变化,而季风摆动区边界层受夏季风活动和季风降水影响很大,变化特殊,但其边界层高度的响应特征并不清楚。应用西北地区东部5站民勤、榆中、平凉、银川和延安2006—2016年5～9月逐日19时每隔10 m高度高空加密观测资料,以及民勤2006—2016年逐日07时探空规定层和特性层资料,结合地面逐日观测资料,对比计算多种资料找到合适的边界层高度。进一步运用NCEP、EC再分析资料,分析夏季风对季风摆动区的影响,得出边界层高度与夏季风、季风期降水影响的关系。结果表明:基于每隔10 m加密压温湿风探空资料,确定了9点平均位温梯度法作为边界层高度的最佳计算方法,该区边界层高度5～6月较高,7～9月逐渐降低,5～9月平均高度由非季风影响区的2 600 m、季风摆动区的1 800 m逐渐降低到季风影响区的1 500 m以下。边界层高度与地面相对湿度、地温和风场关系密切,湿度越大、风速越大,边界层高度越低,相反,近地面地气温差越大,气温越高,吹西北风时,边界层高度越高。在不受夏季风影响时,边界层高度较高,有夏季影响风时,边界层高度较低。夏季风持续时间越长,边界层...     

基于MODIS的青藏高原湖泊透明度遥感反演

湖泊透明度是湖泊水体性质的一个重要参数,是湖泊浮游生物和进入湖泊的有机和无机颗粒溶解程度的综合反映,对湖泊生态环境研究具有重要的科学及实践意义。遥感影像是获取面积广、时间长的湖泊透明度的重要手段,但由于实测数据缺乏,目前对青藏高原地区湖泊透明度的遥感反演研究相对不足。本文基于青藏高原地区24个湖泊实测透明度SD(Secchi Depth)值和相应的MODIS遥感影像,建立了该地区湖泊水体透明度SD值MODIS遥感反演模型。结果表明：基于MODIS绿色波段B4的单波段幂函数模型在该地区反演效果最好,精度较高(R2=0.91, N=24),并具有较好的稳定性。以当惹雍错为例,选用该模型反演得到湖泊透明度的时间变化序列,发现该湖存在明显的季节波动和较为明显的年际变化。初步分析得出,降水/融水季节的湖泊透明度与湖泊所在流域的降水率具有密切的关系。本文结果表明,利用遥感手段能够有效地开展青藏高原地区湖泊透明度的反演,可为进一步深入研究该地区湖泊透明度及其影响要素奠定基础。     

Signature of explosive volcanic eruptions in the sediments of a high-altitude Swiss lake

The analysis of 125 years of well-dated varved sediments in Lake Silvaplana, located at 1,791 m a.s.l. in the Upper Engadine region of south-eastern Switzerland, reveals that 7 out of the 8 climatically relevant explosive volcanic eruptions between A.D. 1880 and 2004 were followed by distinct peaks in median grain-size. Although the underlying mechanisms are yet unclear, an analysis of local meteorological data suggests that this phenomenon is unlikely to be related to any change in air temperature associated with the eruptions, but instead may be related to an increase in autumn precipitation subsequent to the eruptions that led to the erosion and fluvial transport of particles larger than normal.     

Late-Glacial and Holocene Record of Lake Levels of Mathews Pond and Whitehead Lake,Northern Maine,USA

Paleohydrology studies at Mathews Pond and Whitehead Lake in northern Maine revealed synchronous changes in lake levels from about 12,000 ¹⁴C yrs BP to the present. We analyzed gross sediment structure, organic and carbonate content, mineral grain size, and macrofossils of six cores from each of the two lakes, and obtained 72 radiocarbon dates. Interpretation of this paleo-environmental data suggests that the late-glacial and Younger Dryas climate was dry, and lake levels were low. Early Holocene lake levels were considerably higher but declined for an interval from about 8000 to 7200 ¹⁴C yrs BP. Sediment of both lakes contains evidence of a dry period at ∼7400 ¹⁴C yrs BP (8200 cal yr). Lake levels of both sites declined abruptly about 4800 ¹⁴C yrs BP and remained low until 3000 ¹⁴C yrs BP. Modern lake levels were achieved only within the past 600 years. The west-to-east, time-transgressive nature of lake-level changes from several sites across northeastern North America suggests periodic changes in atmospheric circulation patterns as a driving force behind observed moisture balance changes. Electronic supplementary material to this article is available at and accessible for authorized users.     

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

Interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on general circulation and precipitation

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia–West Pacific region (10o–80oN, 70o–180oE), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia–West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia–West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of –0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia–West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one.     

树轮记录的吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化

利用吉尔吉斯斯坦东部chon-kyzyl-suu附近的两个树轮宽度年表,与CRU气温、降水资料和PDSI资料进行相关分析和响应分析,重建该地区过去百年的降水和PDSI,分析近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化特征。结果表明：（1）该地区树轮宽度对降水和PDSI响应较好,利用树轮宽度年表可以较好地重建该地区过去百年上年7月到当年6月的降水和PDSI序列;（2）近百年该地区干湿变化具有明显的6 a、13 a和21 a左右的变化准周期;在1913年前后、1943年前后和1972年前后发生了由多到少的气候突变,在1950年前后发生了由少到多的气候突变;（3）吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化与中国境内天山山区降水变化一致：1890s偏干,1900s是最为湿润的10 a,1910s是最为干旱的10 a,1917年是近百年来最干旱的1 a,1920s-1930s偏湿,1940s偏干,1950s-1960s偏湿,1970s偏干,1980s-2000s偏湿,尤其是1980年以后到现在,天山山区经历了近百年最为漫长的增湿期;重建的近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化能较好的代表西天山大部分区域尤其是西天山北坡吉尔吉斯斯坦境内的干湿变化。     

Influence of climate fluctuation on clay formation in the Baikal drainage basin

Sedimentary cores BDP 96 and 98 and VER 96-2 St. 3 from Academician Ridge in Lake Baikal were investigated to investigate the effect of climatic fluctuations on rock weathering and clay formation in the Baikal drainage basin. Illite, smectite, vermiculite, and kaolinite were identified as the major clay minerals in the sediments by X-ray diffraction analysis. Biotite in gravels in alluvial soils of the Baikal drainage area weathers through illite to vermiculite, smectite, and finally to kaolinite. To investigate the relationship between weathering and climate, we measured the clay content and the concentration of biogenic silica in the sediments. High surface productivity (increased biogenic silica) and high chemical weathering (decreased clay content) occurred simultaneously, showing that crustal weathering and soil formation were enhanced under warm climatic conditions.Clay formation was enhanced in the watershed from the Late Miocene to the Middle Pliocene, and mechanical weathering of rocks increased during glacial intervals after the climate began to cool in Late Pliocene time. This change in the weathering mode in the watershed reduced the nutrient flux and aquatic productivity of Lake Baikal.     

Climatically induced lake level changes during the last two millennia as reflected in sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike,southern Patagonia (Santa Cruz,Argentina)

The volcanogenic lake Laguna Potrok Aike, Santa Cruz, Argentina, reveals an unprecedented continuous high resolution climatic record for the steppe regions of southern Patagonia. With the applied multi-proxy approach rapid climatic changes before the turn of the first millennium were detected followed by medieval droughts which are intersected by moist and/or cold periods of varying durations and intensities. The total inorganic carbon content was identified as a sensitive lake level indicator. This proxy suggests that during the late Middle Ages (ca. AD 1230–1410) the lake level was rather low representing a signal of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in southeastern Patagonia. At the beginning of the Little Ice Age the lake level rose considerably staying on a high level during the whole period. Subsequently, the lake level lowered again in the course of the 20th century.     

Geomorphological evidence for the Late Holocene evolution and the Holocene lake level maximum of the Aral Sea

During the Holocene the Aral Sea underwent various transgressive and regressive phases of different magnitudes. However, previous work has not yet fully clarified the evolution and chronology of the individual phases. Research presented here throws light on the evolution of the Aral Sea during the past  2000 years. It includes field surveys, tachymetric and DGPS-derived altitude measurements, analysis of sediments from two areas of the northern and southern Aral Basin (Tastubek Bay and Karaumbet Bay), and their correlation with GIS-based lake area models. Geomorphological and sedimentological evidence from the study areas shows a transgression of the Aral Sea around 200 AD, ending at a lake level maximum of 54 to 55 m. After a medieval regression, the lake reached this level again between the late 16th and early 19th century AD. The digital elevation model SRTM-3 was used to estimate a lake size of 72,400 km² for the lake level maximum.Elevated palaeoshorelines, specifically at 72–73 m, are completely absent in the study areas. Local remains of escarpments at elevations of 66 m and 73 m are due to resistant Miocene caprock and are therefore not interpretable as shoreline features.     

The dynamics of water exchange parameters of small river basins in the region of the East Asian monsoon

This study determines the main and auxiliary parameters of the model of flood cycle for a small river basin, their spatial distribution across the territory of the southern part of the Far East, and temporal variability. It is found that there is a tendency for an increase of the amount of the surface runoff, and of the number of days with the surface runoff for the rivers in the submontane and plain regions as well as an increase of the base runoff for the rivers in the region of water-resource formation.