Quantifying initial and wind forcing uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico

This study aims at analyzing the combined impact of uncertainties in initial conditions and wind forcing fields in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are used to formulate both spatial perturbations to initial conditions and space-time wind forcing perturbations, namely in the form of a superposition of modal components with uniformly distributed random amplitudes. The forward deterministic HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to propagate input uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in spring 2010, during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and to generate the ensemble of model realizations based on which PC surrogate models are constructed for both localized and field quantities of interest (QoIs), focusing specifically on sea surface height (SSH) and mixed layer depth (MLD). These PC surrogate models are constructed using basis pursuit denoising methodology, and their performance is assessed through various statistical measures. A global sensitivity analysis is then performed to quantify the impact of individual modes as well as their interactions. It shows that the local SSH at the edge of the GoM main current—the Loop Current—is mostly sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions affecting the current front, whereas the local MLD in the area of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. At the basin scale, the SSH in the deep GoM is mostly sensitive to initial condition perturbations, while over the shelf it is sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. On the other hand, the basin MLD is almost exclusively sensitive to wind perturbations. For both quantities, the two sources of uncertainty have limited interactions. Finally, the computations indicate that whereas local quantities can exhibit complex behavior that necessitates a large number of realizations, the modal analysis of field sensitivities can be suitably achieved with a moderate size ensemble.     

Surrogate combining harmonic decomposition and polynomial chaos for seismic shear waves in uncertain media

A polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate is proposed to reconstruct seismic time series in one-dimensional (1D) uncertain media. Our approach overcomes the deterioration of the PC convergence rate during long time integration. It is based on a double decomposition of the signal: a damped harmonic decomposition combined with a polynomial chaos expansion of the four coefficients of each harmonic term (amplitude, decay constant, pulsation, and phase). These PC expansions are obtained through the least squares method which requires the solution of nonlinear least squares problems for each sample point of the stochastic domain. The use of the surrogate is illustrated on vertically incident plane waves traveling in 1D layered, vertically stratified, isotropic, viscoelastic soil structure with uncertainties in the geological data (geometry, wave velocities, quality factors). Computational tests show that the stochastic coefficients can be efficiently represented with a low-order PC expansion involving few evaluations of the direct model. For the test cases, a global sensitivity analysis is performed in time and frequency domains to investigate the relative impact of the random parameters.     

沉积型锰矿床的形成及其与古海洋环境的协同演化

海相沉积型锰矿的成矿过程受古海洋沉积环境影响，而古海洋环境又与超大陆聚合与裂解、极端地质事件、生命演化等密切相关，因此，海相富锰地层是岩石圈、水圈、大气圈和生物圈等多圈层耦合关系与物质循环相关信息的重要载体。深层海水缺氧模型、最小氧化带模型和幕式充氧模型都显示海水中氧化还原梯度的变化是导致锰矿形成的最主要原因。全球范围内海相沉积型锰矿主要形成于古元古代、新元古代和显生宙3个地质历史时期。其中，元古宙时期，地球上发育了完善的氧化还原分层的古海洋结构；古元古代早期和新元古代，超大陆裂解引起的海平面升降变化导致古海洋氧化还原结构产生动荡，并促使大规模沉积型锰成矿作用发生；地球沉寂期（1800~800 Ma）涵盖了整个中元古代，这一时期仅在华北地台发育了少量沉积型锰矿床，反映该时期古海洋中锰的迁移受到了抑制；显生宙地球再次进入活跃期，经历了数次海洋缺氧事件，冰室-温室气候交替促使海水的化学性质剧烈变化，并在局部氧化还原分层的沉积盆地中富集形成沉积型锰矿床。总之，古海洋氧化还原环境的变化是沉积型锰矿形成的必要条件，同时，区域性沉积盆地的结构、海平面的升降、火山作用导致的物缘供给等多种因素都会影响沉积型锰矿的形成。与沉积型铁矿相比，沉积型锰矿对局部海水化学性质的变化更加敏感，综合研究铁锰矿床的共生与分异过程，将有助于更加有效的识别不同尺度的沉积过程与古海洋环境变化。     

Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions.     

Transformation of global spherical harmonic models of the gravity field to a local adjusted spherical cap harmonic model

The new global gravity models represented by global spherical harmonics like EGM2008 require a high degree and order in their coefficients to resolve the gravity field in local areas; therefore, there are interests to represent the regional or local field by less parameters and to develop a parameter transformation from the global model to a local kind of spherical harmonic model. The authors use local spherical cap harmonics for the regional gravity potential representation related to a local pole and a local spherical coordinate system. This allows to model regional gravity potential with less parameters and less memory requirements in computation and storage. From different kinds of representations of spherical cap harmonics, we have selected the so-called adjusted spherical cap harmonics (ASCH). This is the most appropriate for the presented mathematical model of deriving its coefficients from global gravity models. In that way, the global gravity models can fully be exploited and mapped to regional ASCH, in particular with respect to the computation of regional geoid models with improved solution.     

Modelling the geoid and sea-surface topography in coastal areas

This paper looks at the relation between the time-averaged level of the sea surface and a gravimertic geoid, as determined in coastal areas. Measurements in local regions can now be accurate enough to demonstrate that the geoid and mean sea level are not even parallel to each other, let alone identical. The accuracy and pattern structure of surface gravity data in some shelf seas is comparable with those on land, so that a marine geoid can be derived from surface data without using satellite altimetry. The geodetic objective is then to combine the two to determine sea surface topography. In principle, gravimetric studies provide the absolute datum so that local oceanographic models on the shelf can be combined with sea surface topography models related to the global ocean circulation. In contrast, sea surface topography information near deep ocean coasts must come from external sources and satellite altimetry used to give the gravity data needed to offset the less good coverage by ship-borne gravimetry.Marine Bouguer anomalies enable two specific problems of gravity anomaly patterns near the continent ocean transition to be overcome. The necessary extension of Stokes' condensation reduction is developed and illustrated along a north-south profile from the Mediterranean across the Cote d'Azur. The effect on gravity of deep ocean water introduces a geoid correction in the form of a dipolar ridge whose amplitude at the shore is about 11 cm. In addition to geostrophic currents, a semi-quantitative model for the thermohaline effects on sea surface topography is discussed in relation to sea level differences between the Atlantic and Mediterranean.In considering appropriate algorithms for local geoid computation, Kirby's Iterative Fourier Combination routine for combining altimetry and surface gravity is extended to account for global sea surface topography. The impact of very fast spherical harmonic analysis algorithms is discussed and a simple physical model is given which explains the short coherence lengths found for the global gravity field. This necessary assumption for any local geoid computation was hitherto purely empirical.Finally, the use of land data such as tide gauges, ellipsoidal heights from GPS, and orthometric heights from first order levelling are reviewed as ways of corroborating geodetic estimates of sea surface topography and its relation to levelling datums. Successful examples are given from southern England.     

Review and Prospect of Global Operational Ocean Forecasting

The marine environmental forecast plays an increasingly important role in economic growth and infrastructure development, and touches upon many fields and aspects, including marine security, energy resources development and protection, ocean shipping and fisheries. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView supports the national research groups providing them with coordination and technical support among the partners. Forecasting centers develop and establish global operational ocean forecast systems. The global operational ocean forecasting system uses the ocean dynamic numerical model as the dynamic framework, and the near real-time high-quality observation input field is integrated into the model by data assimilation to realize the future environmental forecasts of the marine conditions covering the multi-time scale. The products are routinely validated with observations in order to assess their quality. This paper briefly introduced and reviewed the development process and current situation of the global ocean forecasting system covered by GODAE OceanView, and outlined the future development of global ocean forecasting.     

A non-steady-state compartmental model of global-scale mercury biogeochemistry with interhemispheric atmospheric gradients

A box model of mercury (Hg) cycling between the atmosphere and ocean is described and used to estimate Hg fluxes on a global scale (The Global/Regional Interhemispheric Mercury Model, GRIMM). Unlike previous simulations of this system, few assumptions are made concerning the rate of prominent marine biogeochemical processes affecting Hg (e.g., evasion, particle scavenging, and deep ocean burial). Instead, consistency with two observed atmospheric distributions was required: the interhemispheric gradient in total atmospheric Hg and the value for changes in the deposition of Hg from the atmosphere since industrialization observed in both hemispheres. Sensitivity analyses underscore the importance to modeling of the atmospheric lifetime of Hg, the magnitude of the interhemispheric gradient, the historical changes in Hg concentrations of various reservoirs, and vertical exchange between the surface ocean and the permanent thermocline. Results of the model indicate: lower evasional fluxes of Hg from the global ocean than previous estimates; a prominent role for particle scavenging as a removal mechanism from the surface ocean; a modest influence of dry processes (dust and gas) on Hg removal from the atmosphere; and an estimate of natural land-based sources of Hg to the atmosphere that is no more than about half that of anthropogenic sources.     

海洋碳循环模式的研究进展

从最简单的三箱模式开始简要回顾了海洋碳循环模式的发展历史，讨论了不同发展时期各种模式的特点，并指出了海洋吸收大气CO2的能力。近年来全球海洋环流碳循环模式经常使用简单生化过程，而在过程模式和一维模式中较详尽探讨生态系统在海洋碳循环的作用。最新的全球环流碳循模式估计海洋在20世纪80年代每年吸收大气CO2为1.5~2.2 GtC。还讨论了模拟海洋碳循环的现状和存在的问题。使用含显式生态系统的碳循环模式是研究CO2生物地球循环及其对全球变化响应的发展趋势。     

Practical considerations in the application of simulated annealing to stochastic simulation

Realizations generated by conditional simulation techniques must honor as much data as possible to be reliable numerical models of the attribute under study. The application of optimization methods such as simulated annealing to stochastic simulation has the potential to honor more data than conventional geostatistical simulation techniques. The essential feature of this approach is the formulation of stochastic imaging as an optimization problem with some specified objective function. The data to be honored by the stochastic images are coded as components in a global objective function. This paper describes the basic algorithm and then addresses a number of practical questions: (1) what are the criteria for adding a component to the global objective function? (2) what perturbation mechanism should be employed in the annealing simulation? (3) when should the temperature be lowered in the annealing procedure? (4) how are edge/border nodes handled? (5) how are local conditioning data handled? and (6) how are multiple components weighted in the global objective function?     

国际大洋钻探全球海平面变化研究进展

国际科学大洋钻探计划对全球海平面变化问题的关注始于1980年代初,至今已在被动大陆边缘、孤立碳酸盐台地、混积台地边缘、平顶海山等不同类型海区执行了23个与海平面变化相关的专题航次,采集了大量的钻探资料,为全球海平面变化研究提供了关键信息。依据这些资料,重建了近100 Ma以来的全球海平面变化历史,检验了Exxon的层序地层模型和海平面假说,明确了海平面变化的地层响应,建立了南极冰盖演化与海平面变化的关系。尽管如此,科学大洋钻探海平面变化研究仍存在一些不足,如钻探区的地域代表性还不够多,全球海平面变化信息提取时难以消除其他地质因素(如构造沉降)的影响,海平面变化记录的精度有待提高,多种因素作用下地层结构对海平面变化的响应还需进一步研究,海平面变化机制特别是冰盖动力学对海平面变化的影响及暖期海平面变化的原因还认识不清。在当今气候变暖的大背景下,这些问题的解决有助于提升未来海平面变化趋势预测的可靠性。     

全球冰-海洋耦合模式的海冰模拟

海冰是全球气候系统的重要分量 ,与大气和海洋的相互作用 ,直接影响大气环流和海洋环流 ,对气候及其变化具有重要影响。文中依据冰、海洋间的热力、动力耦合相互作用 ,改进冰海洋热力耦合方案 ,利用由中国科学院大气物理研究所的 30层海洋模式和基于Flato空化流体流变学的海冰动力模式和Hibler表面热收支平衡的零层海冰热力模式 ,建立全球冰海洋耦合模式。利用大气月平均气候资料 ,利用冰海洋耦合模式对全球海冰的分布及其季节性变化、海冰漂移进行了耦合模拟和分析。模拟的南半球海冰分布及季节变化与实际分析资料非常接近 ,比 2 0层冰海洋耦合模式的结果有显著改进。北半球海冰范围偏小 ,但季节变化的量值与实际相当一致。模拟的海冰速度场反映了南、北半球海冰漂移的主要特征 ,如北极的穿极漂流和南大洋的绕极环流等。对海冰密集度的分析表明 ,模拟结果得以改进原因在于改进的冰海洋热力耦合方案增强了融冰期冰海洋耦合系统海洋热通量增加—密集度减小—能量收支增加的正反馈机制。     

基于综合的混沌优化算法估计地震子波

作者从随机化合局搜索的思想出发，利用混沌运动具有的遍历性，随机性，规律性等特点进行大范围的全局优化搜索，再结合遗传算法的杂交算子和小领域的局部搜索，从而提出了一种综合的混沌优化方法，通过对地震记录子波估计的理论模型试验，结果表明这种浊沌的优化算法比单一的随机优化方法具有有很好的实际效果和应用前景。     

基于MPSO的RBF耦合算法的桩基动测参数辨识

变异粒子群优化算法（MPSO）是一种基于群体智能的改进全局优化技术,其优势在于减小陷入局部极值的机率,增加全局搜索能力。将变异粒子群算法与径向基函数（RBF）神经网络结构进行结合,建立了变异粒子群神经网络（MPSO-RBF）耦合算法,充分发挥了MPSO算法的全局寻优能力和RBF算法的局部搜索优势。数值计算结果表明,所建立的方法能够对桩基动测进行多参数的识别和非线性优化问题的求解,具有良好全局收敛能力,是一种行之有效的智能算法。     

二氧化碳在海洋深层水中隔离的数值模拟

随着对大气中二氧化碳浓度的持续增加所产生的潜在全球气候变化问题的认识逐步加深,人们在进一步理解全球碳循环问题的同时,正在寻求遏止大气CO2浓度快速增加的方法。文章在讨论一些可能的途径后,着重探讨了作为其中一种选择的CO2海洋封存的有效性问题。使用北太平洋海洋环流模式,研究了人为隔离CO2在海洋中的行为。在北太平洋中选择了1个位置,在不同的深度人为投放CO2。模拟结果表明,隔离有效性随隔离的深度增加而增加。总的来说,当注入深度超过1500m,其海洋中隔离CO2在50a后仍可达注入量的95%以上。当隔离深度超过2000m后,深度增加对隔离效果的影响变小,50a后的差异均小于1%。     

The role of the ocean feedback on Asian and African monsoon variations at 6 kyr and 9.5 kyr BP

The role of ocean feedback on monsoon variations at 6 and 9.5 kyr Before Present (BP) compared to present-day is investigated by using sets of simulations computed with the IPSL–CM4 ocean–atmosphere coupled model and simulations with the atmospheric model only with the SST prescribed to the present-day simulation for the coupled model. This work is complementary to the study by Marzin and Braconnot (2009) who have analyzed in detail the response of Indian and African monsoons to changes in insolation at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP using the IPSL–CM4 coupled model. The monsoon rainfall was intensified at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP compared to 0 kyr BP as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, the impact of the ocean feedback is analysed for the Indian, East-Asian and African monsoons. The response of the ocean to the 6 and 9.5 kyr BP insolation forcing shares similarities between the two periods, but we highlight local differences and a delay in the response of the surface ocean between 6 and 9.5 kyr BP. The ocean feedback is shown to be positive for the early stage of the African monsoon. A dipole of SST in the tropical Atlantic favouring the earlier build-up of the monsoon in the 6 and 9.5 kyr BP coupled simulations. However, it is strongly negative for the Indian and East Asian monsoons, and of stronger amplitude at 9.5 than at 6 kyr BP over India. In these Asian regions, the convection is more active over the ocean than over the continent during the late monsoon season due to the ocean feedback. The results are consistent with previous studies about 6 kyr BP climate. In addition, it is shown that the ocean feedback is not sufficient to explain the relative amplifications of the different monsoon systems within the three periods of the Holocene, but that the mechanisms such as the effect of the precession on the seasonal cycle of monsoons as discussed in Marzin and Braconnot (2009) are more plausible.     

An Improved Perturbation Mechanism for Simulated Annealing Simulation

Simulated annealing (SA) is being increasingly used for the generation of stochastic models of spatial phenomena because of its flexibility to integrate data of diverse types and scales. The major shortcoming of SA is the extensive CPU requirements. We present a perturbation mechanism that significantly improves the CPU speed. Two conventional perturbation mechanisms are to (1) randomly select two locations and swap their attribute values, or (2) visit a randomly selected location and draw a new value from the global histogram. The proposed perturbation mechanism is a modification of option 2: each candidate value is drawn from a local conditional distribution built with a template of kriging weights rather than from the global distribution. This results in accepting more perturbations and in perturbations that improve the variogram reproduction for short scale lags. We document the new method, the increased convergence speed, and the improved variogram reproduction. Implementation details of the method such as the size of the local neighborhood are considered.     

Ocean tidal loading affecting precise geodetic observations on Greenland: Error account of surface deformations by tidal gravity measurements

Air-borne and satellite based altimetry are used to monitor the Greenland ice-cap. Since these measurements are related to fiducial sites at the coast, the robustness of the height differences depends on the stability of these reference points. To benefit from the accuracy of these methods on the centimeter level, station corrections regarding the Earth tides and the ocean tidal loading have to be applied. Models for global corrections esp. for the body tides are available and sufficient, but local corrections regarding the effect of the adjacent shelf area still have to be inferred from additional observations. Near the coast, ocean tidal loading causes additional vertical deformations in the order of 1 to 10 cm. Therefore, tidal gravity measurements were carried out at four fiducial sites around Greenland in order to provide corrections for the kinematic part of the coordinates of these sites. Starting in 1993 four stations were occupied on Greenland for a one year record each.The results show the expected strong tidal anomalies due to ocean tidal loading. The loading computations confirmed these observations, but it turned out that with global models only about 50 % of the observed effect can be explained. This means that at these stations a vertical deformation of up to ± 3.5 cm is not corrected applying these global models.     

Influence of heterogeneity on the reliability and failure of a long 3D slope

The influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the performance of a long slope cut in clay is investigated. Random field theory is used to model the heterogeneity and finite elements are used to compute the slope response. These have been used within a Monte Carlo simulation to compute reliability as a function of global factor of safety. It is shown that three failure modes are possible, depending on the ratio of the horizontal scale of fluctuation to the slope size, as characterised by its height and length. For very small values of this ratio, the slope fails along its entire length and the result is similar to a conventional 2D analysis based on the mean strength. For intermediate values, discrete failures are likely and reliability is a function of slope length. For large values of the ratio, the variability takes on a layered appearance and the result is equivalent to a 2D stochastic analysis. The validity of the boundary conditions is examined by analysing slopes of different length. It is shown that simple probability theory may be linked with stochastic analysis and finite elements to give efficient solutions for some large 3D problems.     

Correcting the Smoothing Effect of Estimators: A Spectral Postprocessor

The postprocessing algorithm introduced by Yao for imposing the spectral amplitudes of a target covariance model is shown to be efficient in correcting the smoothing effect of estimation maps, whether obtained by kriging or any other interpolation technique. As opposed to stochastic simulation, Yao's algorithm yields a unique map starting from an original, typically smooth, estimation map. Most importantly it is shown that reproduction of a covariance/semivariogram model (global accuracy) is necessarily obtained at the cost of local accuracy reduction and increase in conditional bias. When working on one location at a time, kriging remains the most accurate (in the least squared error sense) estimator. However, kriging estimates should only be listed, not mapped, since they do not reflect the correct (target) spatial autocorrelation. This mismatch in spatial autocorrelation can be corrected via stochastic simulation, or can be imposed a posteriori via Yao's algorithm.