Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Submarine discharge into the seas of the Arctic Ocean from the European Russia territory

Groundwater formation conditions in the upper hydrodynamic zone of the northern coast of European Russia are considered. This groundwater discharges directly into the Barents and White seas. The values of submarine discharge from European Russia into arctic seas, bypassing river network, are estimated. Estimates of subsurface dissolved-solids discharge are given. Specific and integral characteristics of submarine discharge are analyzed. The major regularities in the formation and distribution of submarine discharge into seas of the Arctic Ocean are described.     

Long-term seismological sea-bottom monitoring using autonomous bottom stations

Merits and demerits of recording of seismic signals at the bottom of water areas are considered. It is shown that long-term seismological monitoring systems should be placed in the regions of industrial development of the shelf and continental slope and in the areas of high seismic and tsunami hazard of oceans and seas. The results obtained during expeditions of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the use of broadband bottom seismographs are reported. Autonomous bottom seismographs with long-term operation at the bottom and operative communication via satellite and radio channels are proposed for the formation of a marine seismological network.     

Radioactive waste disposal in seas adjacent to the territory of the Russian Federation

The former USSR illegally dumped into the ocean liquid and solid radioactive wastes (RW) originating from nuclear-powered vessels and ships. The Russian President created a special Commission to analyse both the scale and consequences of this activity. According to documentary data and expert estimates at the Commission's disposal, the maximum activity of RW that entered the seas adjacent to Russian territory could have been as much as 2,500 kCi at the time of disposal. The greatest radio-ecological hazard comes from reactors from nuclear submarines and core plates of the nuclear icebreaker 'Lenin', which had spent nuclear fuel in place and which were dumped in shallow water in the Kara Sea near Novaya Zemlya. Editor's note: This article extracts material from a Commission which published a report produced in Russia in 1993. Numerous sources in many Ministries and other government agencies, noted in the text, formed the basis for the final draft. The authors of the draft report were A. Yablokov, V. Karasev, V. Rumyantsev, M. Kokeev, O. Petrov, V. Lystsov, A. Yemelyanenkov and P. Rubtsov. After approving the draft report, the Commission submitted the report to the President of the Russian Federation in February 1993. By Presidential decision, this report (after several technical corrections) was open to the public: it is known variously as 'the Yablokov Commission report, or more simply the 'Yablokov Report', the 'White Book' or 'Yablokov White Paper'. During April-May 1993, 500 copies were distributed among governmental agencies inside Russia, and abroad through a net of Russian Embassies. This article was later sent to Dr Mike Champ as part of the ongoing collections of papers on the Arctic published in this journal (edited by Champ et al.: 1997 'Contaminants in the Arctic', Marine Pollution Bulletin 35, pp. 203-385 and in Marine Pollution Bulletin 2000, vol. 40, pp. 801-868, and continued with the present collection).     

Estimating the Influence of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Trajectory of the Directional Drilling of Deep Wells in the Arctic Region

At high latitudes, sporadic geomagnetic disturbances associated with geomagnetic storms introduce significant uncertainty in measurements by borehole inclinometers during the directional drilling of deep wells. Variations in the magnetic declination may lead to significant deviations of the actual coordinates of the borehole from the prescribed trajectory. Using the methods for calculating the profile of the actual borehole, we conducted model estimates of the influence of sporadic disturbances in the magnetic declination observed during the magnetic storm of October 28–31, 2003 on the displacement azimuth and intensity of borehole bending at the given locations at the sites of two high-latitude magnetic observatories. It is shown that, unless filtered based on the data of parallel observatory measurements, the geomagnetic disturbances can lead to unacceptably large errors in the borehole inclinometer measurements and cause a borehole deflection exceeding the admissible values.     

Potential and visible evaporation and its variations in European Russia over the recent 50 years by experimental data

Variations in pan evaporation in European Russia from 1951 to 2010 have been studied, and regions with specific variations of potential evaporation have been identified. It is shown that evaporation decseases all over the territory under consideration, and intensity of its decreasing up to the late 1970s was far in excess of that in the decades that followed. The decrease in the variations in evaporation may be regarded as an indicator of reduction of intensity of heat and moisture exchange between the underlying surface and the atmosphere. A new characteristic of the moisture regime of the territory, i.e., visible evaporation, was introduced to characterize, in this case, the amount of free moisture in the atmosphere that can be involved in the terrestrial water cycle. The humidity of the territory in the European Russia has shown to have increased since 1966. Regions where changes in the moisture regime show common patterns have been identified and the specific features of humidity distribution in different natural zones of European Russia have been assessed.     

Perspectives of artificial recharge of groundwater in southern European Russia

The current state of the problem of artificial recharge of groundwater in Russia and other countries is analyzed. The factors that govern the zoning by the conditions of artificial groundwater recharge are considered. The territory of the southern European Russia was zoned by the conditions of artificial groundwater recharge and the results of this zoning were used to compile maps of perspectives of artificial groundwater recharge in southern European Russia.     

Geomagnetic evolution: 400 years of change on planet Earth

Spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic field, calculated from historical observations of declination, inclination and intensity, and from archaeomagnetic inclination results, have been used to produce a film of geomagnetic change since 1600 A.D. The non-dipole geomagnetic field is found to be constantly changing: no fixed or standing non-dipole features are observed. Non-dipole foci are seen to have lifetimes of a few hundred years. The westward drift, which was an important feature of the 18th and early 19th century geomagnetic field, was less pronounced in the 17th century. The growth, evolution, decay and replacement of non-dipole foci, but not their movement are found to have been the major features producing century-long secular directional magnetic variation. Most of the low degree and order spherical harmonic coefficients have changed significantly over the last few hundred years. In particular the change in sign of the axisymmetric quadrupole around 1837 A.D. is noted. Sustained, century-long, intensity changes, however, appear to have been dominated by variations in the intensity of the centred dipole, rather than by non-dipole field fluctuations.     

兰州地磁台GPS差分方位角的测量

为了适应高采样率、高分辨率、高精度的新型地磁仪器对磁偏角和磁倾角观测的需要,应用GPS测定了改造后的兰州地磁台的7个观测墩（一个临时观测墩）至2个方位标志的方位角,共取得了13个方位角参数,使兰州地磁台在地磁偏角测量或仪器验收比测中可供6套仪器同时观测,并可做到全天候观测。     

Seismicity of the North of the Russian Plate: Relocation of Recent Earthquakese

The hypocenters of the earthquakes recorded in the north of the Russian Plate from 1982 to 2013 are relocated. The relocation of the hypocenters is based on the common velocity section, common methodology, and the entire set of the initial data and bulletins available from the Russian and foreign seismic stations. The efficiency of the algorithm for calculating the hypocentral parameters and the velocity section is demonstrated by the example of two nonmilitary nuclear explosions in July 18, 1985 and September 6, 1988 in the northern part of the European Russia. For the first time, two earthquakes of July 19, 1982 and October 7, 2012, which have not been previously reported in the catalogs for the north of the Russian plate, are included in the seismic catalog.     

Survey of Geomagnetic Observations Made in the Northern Sector of Russia and New Methods for Analysing Them

An overview of the geomagnetic observations made in the northern part of Russia is presented from a historical perspective. Several stations were deployed on the territory of the former Soviet Union during the International Geophysical Year, 1957–1958, with the active participation and guidance of the Interagency Geophysical Committee which is inherited by the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS). In the 1990s, the majority of these stations, especially those in the remoter regions, were closed. Nowadays, the geomagnetic network, including the observatories of the INTERMAGNET program, has been restored. Examples of high-latitude geomagnetic variations in the Russian longitudinal sector are shown, and maps and trends of the secular variation over the territory of Russia presented. Particular attention is paid to the automated processing of data and to the analysis methods used. To process the growing amount of high-resolution geomagnetic data, sophisticated mathematical methods based on the fuzzy logic approach and new discrete mathematical analysis algorithms have been developed. The formal methods and algorithms for recognizing both artificial and natural disturbances in the magnetograms are described.     

The State of knowledge about wetlands and their future under aspects of global climate change: the situation in Russia

About two-thirds of Russia’s land area are flat lands, which contributes to the development of conditions favouring wetland formation. Wetlands cover vast areas, especially in the north. Wetlands in the former Soviet Union were not recognized as separate or distinct ecosystems and this is still the situation in Russia today. Bogs are one of the most abundant and typical wetlands and were treated as worthless wastelands. Beginning in the 17th century and continuing under the Soviet government there was an enforced policy to drain wetlands and reclaim the land, mainly for farming. After the collapse of the USSR, this practice was discontinued along with the Soviet model of agriculture and an end to the forced and unnecessary use of pesticides and fertilizers with the result that the toxic load on Russian aquatic systems decreased drastically. Industrial production was also greatly curtailed. While it is now recovering, many of these are turning to environmentally-friendly technologies. The intensity of land-use related impacts upon Russian wetlands is negligible compared to that in more densely populated countries and therefore the environmental conservation of wetlands in Russia may not currently be an urgent problem. There is currently no consensus on what the overall direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the number of Russian wetlands will be—in some areas they may increase but decrease in others. In Russia, the most urgent issue is not the preservation of wetlands but the development of proper wetland management practices. For effective plans, data and information on wetland status, trends and characteristics are required that are not currently available.     

First geomagnetic measurements in the Antarctic region

Based on data from literature and archival sources, we have further processed and analyzed the results of geomagnetic measurements made during the 1772–1775 Second World Expedition by James Cook and the 1819–1821 overseas Antarctic Expedition by Russian mariners Bellingshausen and Lazarev. Comparison with the GUFM historical model showed that there are systematic differences in the spatial structure of both the declination and its secular variation. The results obtained can serve as a basis for the construction of regional models of the geomagnetic field for the Antarctic region.     

Application of the Land Surface Model SWAP and Global Climate Model INMCM4.0 for Projecting Runoff of Northern Russian Rivers. 2. Projections and Their Uncertainties

Water Resources - The aim of this study was investigating the ability of the AOGCM INMCM4.0 and LSM SWAP to reproduce streamflow of nine northern Russian rivers located in the European Russia and...     

Update of normative seismic zoning in the framework of the integrated information system for the seismic safety of Russia

The article deals with updating databases and the general seismic zoning maps of the Russian territory (GSZ-97). Development of new maps (GSZ-2012) is considered. Recommendations on updating the building codes are made. The article reports on the development of the Integrated Information System “Seismic Safety of Russia” that involves operation of the specialized interactive maps of seismic hazard forecast.     

The Ebro River in the 20th century or the ecomorphological transformation of a large and dynamic Mediterranean channel

In the first decades of the 20th century, the Ebro River was the Iberian channel with the most active fluvial dynamics and the most remarkable spatial‐temporal evolution. Its meandering typology, the dimensions of its floodplain, and the singularities of its flow regime produced an especially interesting set of river functions. The largest dynamics of the Ebro River are concentrated along the meandering profile of the central sector. During the 20th century, this sector experienced a large alteration of its geomorphological structure. We present here an analysis of this evolution through the cartographic study of a long segment of the river (~250 km) in 1927, 1956 and 2003. The results show a large reduction in bank sinuosity, a progressive loss of fluvial territory, and a large decrease in channel width. These changes are especially clear in the areas previously most ecologically connected with the active channel. The fluvial territory of the river in 2003 was approximately half that found during the first decades of the 20th century. Forest plantations, which were non‐existent in 1927, occupied more than 1500 ha of the study area in the last decade. This intense geomorphological transformation becomes ecologically visible in (i) a 35% reduction of the area occupied by riparian vegetation; (ii) a loss of the heterogeneity of riparian forest spots, which were formerly structured in an irregular mosaic far from the river thalweg; and (iii) a modification of the riparian forest structure, which is currently linear, uniform, thin and very close to the river axis. The ecomorphological alteration was intensified by the remarkable reduction in bank length (13%) and the reduced dynamism of the present river system, indicated by an increase in the percentage of fluvial territory occupied by riparian forests and a reduction in the area occupied by the active channel. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

European freshwater mussels (Unio spp., Unionidae) in Siberia and Kazakhstan: Pleistocene relicts or recent invaders?

Unionidae is a species-rich family of large freshwater mussels with an almost worldwide distribution. In many regions of the world, these mussels are imperiled. Northern Asia, excluding the Far East, is an excellent example of a region with a sharply impoverished fauna of the Unionidae as recently thought with one native species. Since the end of the 19th century, two freshwater mussel species of the genus Unio (U. pictorum and U. tumidus) were repeatedly recorded in Siberia. In the course of this study, these finds are confirmed both morphologically and genetically, the number of known occurrences of these mussels in the waterbodies of Asiatic Russia and Kazakhstan has drastically increased, and the third species, globally endangered U. crassus, was found in the Ob’ River basin. The unique U. tumidus haplotype discovered from the Upper Irtysh River basin is of probable relic origin, which may indicate the presence of a Pleistocene refugium there. Due to natural environmental changes during the last century, several genera of freshwater Mollusca that previously inhabited Western Siberia, but went completely extinct in the Pleistocene, have started to recover the North Asiatic part of their former ranges. The case of Unio is exceptional since the recovery of its lost range goes not exclusively with the humans’ help but also involves the natural mechanisms of dispersal and range extension, and also because these mussels are disappearing in other parts of the world and are placed in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.     

Sediment Yield of Kamchatka Krai Rivers into the Pacific Ocean and the Seas of Bering and Okhotsk

Sediment yield of Kamchatka Krai rivers into the Pacific Ocean and the seas of Bering and Okhotsk, is evaluated, including that from the drainage basins that are not covered by regular observations. Regression dependences of specific suspended sediment yield (SSSY) on factors determining it were constructed for erosion regions identified in Kamchatka Krai. The total average many-year yield of suspended sediments of Kamchatka Krai rivers into the Pacific is 11.4 × 10⁶ t/year, 73.9% of which is transported by rivers of the eastern coast and 26.1%, by those of the western coast. Among other factors, such distribution is attributed to the location of the majority of volcanoes on Kamchatka eastern coast. About one third of all sediments transported from Kamchatka Krai territory is discharged by the two largest rivers in the region, i.e., the Penzhina and Kamchatka.     

A Seismic Mishap: the “Ural” Earthquake in 1693

The paper considers the problem of how Russian and European researchers of the 19th century became acquainted with the sources of the information about earthquakes in the Urals. Particular attention is devoted to the earliest known event in 1693. It is shown that this earthquake was mistakenly related to the Urals due to the primary source not being learned; in fact, it was fixed in Transbaikalia. The problem is posed about the need for professional work with historical materials and cataloging the events of the historical past.     

Features of High-Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities Development as Revealed by Ground-Based GPS Observations,Satellite-Borne GPS Observations and Satellite In Situ Measurements over the Territory of Russia during the Geomagnetic Storm on March 17–18, 2015

The dynamic picture of the response of the high- and mid-latitude ionosphere to the strong geomagnetic disturbances on March 17–18, 2015, has been studied with ground-based and satellite observations, mainly, by transionospheric measurements of delays of GPS (Global Positioning System) signals. The advantages of the joint use of ground-based GPS measurements and GPS measurements on board of the Swarm Low-Earth-Orbit satellite mission for monitoring of the appearance of ionospheric irregularities over the territory of Russia are shown for the first time. The results of analysis of ground-based and space-borne GPS observations, as well as satellite, in situ measurements, revealed large-scale ionospheric plasma irregularities observed over the territory of Russia in the latitude range of 50°–85° N during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. The most intense ionospheric irregularities were detected in the auroral zone and in the region of the main ionospheric trough (MIT). It has been found that sharp changes in the phase of the carrier frequency of the navigation signal from all tracked satellites were recorded at all GPS stations located to the North from 55° MLAT. The development of a deep MIT was related to dynamic processes in the subauroral ionosphere, in particular, with electric fields of the intense subauroral polarization stream. Analysis of the electron and ion density values obtained by instruments on board of the Swarm and DMSP satellites showed that the zone of highly structured auroral ionosphere extended at least to heights of 850–900 km.