Combining LPJ-GUESS and HASM to simulate the spatial distribution of forest vegetation carbon stock in China简

It is very important in accurately estimating the forests＇ carbon stock and spatial distribution in the regional scale because they possess a great rate in the carbon stock of the terrestrial ecosystem. Yet the current estimation of forest carbon stock in the regional scale mainly depends on the forest inventory data, and the whole process consumes too much labor, money and time. And meanwhile it has many negative influences on the forest carbon storage updating. In order to figure out these problems, this paper, based on High Accuracy Surface Modeling （HASM）, proposes a forest vegetation carbon storage simulation method. This new method employs the output of LPJ-GUESS model as initial values of HASM and uses the inventory data as sample points of HASM to simulate the distribution of forest carbon storage in China. This study also adopts the seventh forest resources statistics of China as the data source to generate sample points, and it also works as the simulation accuracy test. The HASM simulation shows that the total forest carbon storage of China is 9.2405 Pg, while the calculated value based on forest resources statistics are 7.8115 Pg. The forest resources statistics is taken based on a forest canopy closure, and the result of HASM is much more suitable to the real forest carbon storage. The simulation result also indicates that the southwestern mountain region and the northeastern forests are the important forest carbon reservoirs in China, and they account for 39.82% and 20.46% of the country＇s total forest vegetation carbon stock respectively. Compared with the former value （1975-1995）, it mani- fests that the carbon storage of the two regions do increase clearly. The results of this re- search show that the large-scale reforestation in the last decades in China attains a signifi- cant carbon sink.     

Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-RiverHeadwaters region,China简

The Three-River Headwaters region in China is an ecological barrier providing en- vironmental protection and regional sustainable development for the mid-stream and down- stream areas, which also plays an important role in animal husbandry in China. This study estimated the grassland yield in the Three-River Headwaters region based on MODIS NPP data, and calculated the proper livestock-carrying capacity of the grassland. We analyzed the overgrazing number and its spatial distribution characteristics through data comparison be- tween actual and proper livestock-carrying capacity. The results showed the following： （1） total grassland yield （hay） in the Three-River Headwaters region was 10.96 million tons in 2010 with an average grassland yield of 465.70 kg/hm2 （the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest in turn）; （2） the proper livestock-carrying capacity in the Three-River Headwaters region is 12.19 million sheep units （hereafter described as ＂SU＂）, and the average stocking capacity is 51.27 SU [the proper carrying capacity is above 100 SU/km2 in the eastern counties, 60 SU/km2 in the cen- tral counties （except Madoi County）, and 30 SU/km2 in the western counties]; and （3） total overgrazing number was 6.52 million SU in the Three-River Headwaters region in 2010, with an average overgrazing ratio of 67.88% and an average overgrazing number of 27.43 SU/km2 A higher overgrazing ratio occurred in Tongde, Xinghai, Yushu, Henan and Z~kog. There was no overgrazing in Zhiduo, Tanggula Township and Darlag, Qumerleb and Madoi. The re- mainder of the counties had varying degrees of overgrazing.     

The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic develop-ment in China简

Understanding the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic de- velopment on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance. Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China, applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic development level. The study identified the following results. （1） The 31 province-level re- gions fall into six categories： only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization, 3 regions are in medium over-urbanization, 11 slight over-urbanization, 8 basic coordination, one medium under-urbanization, and seven slight under-urbanization. （2） There are signifi- cant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development. （3） The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west. The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized, while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized. （4） The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect. Hence, two important insights are proposed. First, the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigi- lance. Second, urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.     

Effects of urbanization on daily temperature extremes in North China简

The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 mete- orological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP- Ⅱ reanalysis data （R-2）, and the data of simulations by regional climate model （RegCM3）. The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in an- nual and winter diurnal temperature range （DTR） are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature （TNn） are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights （TN90p） contributed by urbaniza- tion is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.     

Urban carbon footprint and carbon cycle pressure: The case study of Nanjing简

Urban carbon footprint reflects the impact and pressure of human activities on ur- ban environment. Based on city level, this paper estimated carbon emissions and carbon footprint of Nanjing city, analyzed urban carbon footprint intensity and carbon cycle pressure and discussed the influencing factors of carbon footprint through LMDI decomposition model. The main conclusions are as follows： （1） The total carbon emissions of Nanjing increased rapidly since 2000, in which the carbon emission from the use of fossil energy was the largest Meanwhile, carbon sinks of Nanjing presented a declining trend since 2000, which caused the decrease of carbon compensation rate and the increase of urban carbon cycle pressure. （2） The total carbon footprint of Nanjing increased rapidly since 2000, and the carbon deficit was more than ten times of total land areas of Nanjing in 2009, which means Nanjing confronted high carbon cycle pressure. （3） Generally, carbon footprint intensity of Nanjing was on de- crease and the carbon footprint productivity was on increase. This indicated that energy utilization rate and carbon efficiency of Nanjing was improved since 2000, and the policy for energy conservation and emission reduction taken by Nanjing＇s government received better effects. （4） Economic development, population and industrial structure are promoting factors for the increase of carbon footprint of Nanjing, while the industrial carbon footprint intensity was inhibitory factor. （5） Several countermeasures should be taken to decrease urban carbon footprint and alleviate carbon cycle pressure, such as： improvement of the energy efficiency, industrial structure reconstruction, afforestation and environmental protection and land use control. Generally, transition to low-carbon economy is essential for Chinese cities to realize sustainable development in the future.     

Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005简

Net primary productivity （NPP） is the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can most important index that represents the be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models （DGVM）, which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environ- mental change. This study simulated the NPP of China＇s ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator （IBIS） with data on climate, soil, and topography. The appli- cability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China＇s terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simula- tions are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China＇s natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. （1） Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. （2） Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China, especially in the Loess Plateau. （3） Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. （4） The re- gional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Changes in temperature extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, 1962–2011简

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Mete- orological Administration at 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2011, the methods of linear regression, principal component analysis and correlation analysis are employed to investigate the temporal variability and spatial distribution of tem- perature extremes. Sixteen indices of extreme temperature are selected. The results are as follows： （1） The occurrence of cold days, cold nights, ice days, frost days and cold spell du- ration indicator has significantly decreased by -0.84, -2.78, -0.48, -3.29 and -0.67 days per decade, respectively. While the occurrence of warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropi- cal nights, warm spell duration indicator and growing season length shows statistically sig- nificant increasing trends at rates of 2.24, 2.86, 2.93, 1.80, 0.83 and 2.30 days per decade, respectively. The tendency rate of the coldest day, coldest night, warmest day, warmest night and diurnal temperature range is 0.33, 0.47, 0.16, 0.19 and -0.07~C per decade, respectively （2） The magnitudes of changes in cold indices （cold nights, coldest day and coldest night） are obviously greater than those of warm indices （warm nights, warmest day and warmest night）. The change ranges of night indices （warm nights and cold nights） are larger than those of day indices （warm days and cold days）, which indicates that the change of day and night tem- perature is asymmetrical. （3） Spatially, the regionally averaged values of cold indices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are larger than those in the middle and lower reaches. However, the regionally averaged values of most warm indices （except warm spell duration indicator） and growing season length in the middle and lower reaches are larger than those in the upper reaches. （4） The extreme temperature indices are well correlated with each other except diurnal temperature range.     

川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害危险度评价简

川滇黔接壤地区是中国自然灾害极易发区,高频度、高强度的自然灾害已经给该区域社会经济发展造成严重威胁。通过对川滇黔接壤地区主要自然灾害的实地调查和数据分析,构建地震、泥石流、崩塌滑坡、洪涝、干旱、冰雹和低温冷害等7个主要灾种的危险度评价指标体系和评价指标数据库,利用GIS空间分析功能获取研究区自然灾害危险度综合评价图。结果表明：川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害表现出“两线一区”的基本格局,即小江—安宁河深大断裂、金沙江沿线和乌蒙山区3个自然灾害高危险区。宏观地质构造和地貌形态是控制川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害分布格局的主要因素。高度危险和极度危险区威胁的国土总面积、总人口、GDP总量都占到研究区的一半以上,防灾减灾成为该地区发展中不可忽视的关键问题。研究也发现自然灾害对农村区域影响更加显著,因此在该地区社会经济发展和扶贫开发中,特别是乌蒙山区集中连片特困地区开发中要高度重视自然灾害的影响。     

Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s简

Land-use/land-cover changes （LUCCs） have links to both human and nature inter- actions. China＇s Land-Use/cover Datasets （CLUDs） were updated regularly at 5-year inter- vals from the late 1980s to 2010, with standard procedures based on Landsat TM／ETM＋ im- ages. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics, differences, and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as fol- lows. Land-use changes （LUCs） across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years （1990-2010）. The area of cropland change de- creased in the south and increased in the north, but the total area remained almost un- changed. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly, were mainly distributed in the east, and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first, and then increased, but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included （1） an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the southeastern coastal areas, the midstream area of the Yangtze River, and the Sichuan Basin; （2） shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China; （3） continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields; and （4） effective- ness of the ＂Grain for Green＂ project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia, the Loess Plateau, and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades, although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland, policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century, the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use pat- terns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation. The ＂dynamic regionalization method＂ was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries, the internal characteristics of zones, and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed ＂the pattern of the change process,＂ namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning, variations in unit boundaries, and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the ＂pattern＂ and ＂process＂ of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.     

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its driving factors in the Three-River Headwaters Region during 2000–2011简

The Three-River Headwaters Region （TRHR）, which is the source area of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River, is of key importance to the ecological secu- rity of China. Because of climate changes and human activities, ecological degradation oc- curred in this region. Therefore, ＂The nature reserve of Three-River Sou,＇ce Regions＂ was established, and ＂The project of ecological protection and construction for the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve＂ was implemented by the Chinese government. This study, based on MODIS-NDVI and climate data, aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its driving factors in the TRHR between 2000 and 2011, from three dimensions. Linear regression, Hurst index analysis, and partial correlation analysis were employed. The results showed the following： （1） In the past 12 years （2000-2011）, the NDVI of the study area increased, with a linear tendency being 1.2%/10a, of which the Yangtze and Yellow River source regions presented an increasing trend, while the Lancang River source region showed a decreasing trend. （2） Vegetation coverage presented an obvious spatial difference in the TRHR, and the NDVI frequency was featured by a bimodal structure. （3） The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area, being 64.06% and 35.94%, respectively during the study period, and presented an increasing trend in the north and a decreasing trend in the south. （4） The reverse characteristics of vegetation cov- erage change are significant. In the future, degradation trends will be mainly found in the Yangtze River Basin and to the north of the Yellow River, while areas with improving trends are mainly distributed in the Lancang River Basin. （5） The response of vegetation coverage to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has a time lag, while there is no such lag in the case of temperature. （6） The increased vegetation coverage is mainly attributed to the warm-wet climate change and the implementation of the ecological protection project.     

珠江虎门潮汐水道难降解有机污染物入海通量研究

对采自虎门潮汐水道狮子洋4个采样点表层水样中的多环芳烃、有机氯农药进行了定量分析.洪、枯水期水体中多环芳烃总量(颗粒相和溶解相)分别是786～964 ng/L、11 360～19 603 ng/L;有机氯农药总量分别是9.68～26.29 ng/L、41.65～96.23 ng/L.根据4个采样点洪、枯水期有机污染物浓度的平均值估算多环芳烃、有机氯农药的年均入海通量.初步估算结果显示:多环芳烃的总入海通量(溶解相和颗粒相)为438.4×103 kg/a,其中颗粒相是52.5×103 kg/a;16种优控多环芳烃的入海通量为247.9×103 kg/a.有机氯农药的总入海通量是2.6×103kg/a,其中六六六的入海通量为1.1×103 kg/a,滴滴涕类的入海通量为0.3×103kg/a,其它有机氯农药的入海通量为1.2×103 kg/a.     

珠江虎门河口水体有机氯农药的垂向分布及二次污染初步研究

采用5点法对珠江广州河段白鹅潭水域进行垂线采样,并采取表层沉积物的界面水。水样采用GF/F玻璃滤膜过滤分离出颗粒相和溶解相,据美国EPA标准对有机氯农药进行定量分析,结果显示有机氯农药浓度范围是23.89~61.69ng/L;据有机氯农药浓度的垂向分布特征、颗粒相为主要输运方式的DDTs的中下层高浓度跃层的形成、以及有机氯农药在颗粒相和溶解相浓度分布和分配系数表明,水柱上层和下层水体的有机氯农药的输入方式有较大的差异,结合主成分分析结果,在流速增加的动力条件下,表层沉积物存在二次污染的风险。     

对珠江三角洲第四纪断裂运动的再认识

编制了珠江三角洲番禺台地东缘第四纪堆积阶地、陆域钻孔及海域地震探测等一系列联合剖面,分析了抬升区、下沉区和海陆之间的沉积差异和控制因素,剖析了地动型和水动型海平面变化对三角洲形成演化的影响,厘清了各组断裂的活动及其对三角洲沉积发育的影响,结果发现北东东向和北北西向2组断裂为珠江三角洲地区的主要活动断裂,它们共轭联动,控制着珠江三角洲沉积的格局和水道的变迁,尤其是北东东向断裂,可能是南海北部大陆架滨海断裂系的组成部分。相比而言,陆域断裂活动性较弱,以缓慢蠕动和断块的差异升降和掀斜为主,海域断裂活动性较强,滨海断裂带是危险性很高的活动大断裂。三角洲其他方向的断裂更新世以来无明显活动。     

从珠三角到大珠三角再到粤港澳大湾区：改革开放以来中国的国家尺度重组

尺度重组是解释当前国家、城市等地域组织参与全球化竞争的工具媒介。文章以中国华南地区改革开放以来广东、香港、澳门三地跨界合作为例,借鉴行动者网络理论的研究方法深入剖析珠三角、大珠三角及粤港澳大湾区3个“新国家空间”的尺度重组过程,揭示中国尺度重组的政治经济逻辑。研究发现,行动者拥有的资源决定了其在尺度网络中的地位,而中国的“新国家空间”形成主要依托中央政府推动,其发展目标的设定具有决定性作用,港澳特区政府、广东省地方政府、乡镇企业和外资企业等其他行动者在协同合作中将自身的发展目标与之融合形成了“强制通过点”。纵观三阶段的演变过程,制度因素的重要性越来越得到凸显。     

Grain-size distribution characteristics of red sandy sediments in Dongjiang River valley, southern Nanling Mountains, during the MIS2 stage

Layer LJ3 of Linjiang stratigraphic section in Dongjiang River valley in the south of the Nanling Mountains is a set of red sandy sediments.Measured by thermoluminescence(TL) dating,it was found to be formed in MIS2-9,500 ± 800 yr to 19,600 ± 1,800 yr B.P.After analy-sis of the grain sizes of the 16 samples(LJ3-100 to LJ3-85) in this layer,it was discovered that(1) The contents of each grain group in dif-ferent samples are similar.(2) The values of Md,Mz,,Sk,and Kg vary from LJ3-100 to LJ3-85 in a narrow range.(3) The segments of each sample in the accumulative curves extend parallel with similar slopes.All the three aspects reveal the Aeolian characteristics of Layer LJ3.Therefore,it is thought that Layer LJ3 consists of red sandy sediments formed in MIS2 in the south of Nanling Mountain,which reflects the arid climate at that time.     

Extension and subsidence of the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea

Abstract The uniform stretching model has been applied to seismic reflection profiles and well-log information from the Pearl River Mouth Basin on the northern flank of the South China Sea. Stretching factors were calculated from subsidence curves determined from the stratigraphy by using the backstripping technique to remove the effects of compaction and sediment loading. Variations in rift topography, palaeobathymetry and global sea-level v/ere taken into account. We argue that the Pearl River Mouth Basin formed by lithospheric extension by a factor of about 1.8, lasting from Late Cretaceous to late Oligocene times. Stretching factors calculated from subsidence agree with those determined from the geometry of normal faulting and from crustal thinning. Thus there is no indication of a significant discrepancy between the different estimates of stretching. The geometry of faulting suggests that considerable amounts of local footwall uplift occurred during the rifting period. Small differences between the observed and calculated subsidence curves (∽ 400 m in the middle Miocene) are best explained by minor amounts of extension ( β ∽ 1.1). The time-temperature history of sediments within the basin has also been calculated so that expected vitrinite reflectance and oil abundance could be determined. The results are consistent with each other and are in reasonable agreement with observations from wells.     

Evolving Spatial Form of Urban-Rural Interaction in the Pearl River Delta,China

Much of the development literature and the theory of urban transition have been based on an arbitrary division of production space into city and countryside. Despite growing recognition of the need for an integrated approach to urban-rural relations, controversial issues related to the definition and measurement of the phenomenon remain unresolved. This case study of spatial transformation in China’s Pearl River Delta analyzes with greater precision the geographic extent and functional attributes of a zone of urban-rural interaction located outside and between major metropolitan centers. This zone has been the spatial focus of industrial and commercial development, although most of its population remains officially classified as “agricultural.” The peri-urban zone was initially left behind by the central cities in terms of its contribution to the regional economy. After a decade of postreform development, this zone has moved ahead of the central cities and become the region’s main destination for in-migrants and foreign investment. The growth of the zone of urban-rural interaction outside the central cities has absorbed a significant amount of the increased urban population, but it has not brought about a reduction of regional economic inequality because of the persistence of a backward economy in the periphery. Theoretical questions are raised concerning the validity of several fundamental assumptions underlying the conventional model of urban transition.     

The spatial dynamics of foreign investment in the Pearl River Delta, south China

The Pearl River Delta region in south China has experienced dramatic economic development, industrialization and urbanization since the late 1970s. Foreign investment, especially the capital from Hong Kong, has been one of the major driving forces underlying the process. The spatial concentration/diffusion of foreign investment in a region also has important bearing on the balanced/unbalanced urban and regional development. This issue remains unexamined and critical analysis is needed to unveil the spatial impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in China. This paper will focus on the Pearl River Delta region to examine the spatial diffusion and the determinants of foreign investment. The diffusion of foreign investment from the provincial capital, Guangzhou and two special economic zones near Hong Kong to surrounding areas is clearly identified. The diffusion is the result of the widespread implementation of open-door policy in the region and significant improvement in infrastructure. Four models of foreign investment are developed to explain the spatial incidence of foreign investment in the region. The findings of this paper can shed light on the regional development process in China and other developing countries under the influence of foreign capital.     

State-Sponsored and Spontaneous Urbanization in the Pearl River Delta of South China, 1980-1998

State-sponsored urbanization prevailed in the prereform China. A new track of spontaneous urbanization has emerged since 1978. However, state-sponsored urbanization has continued to be an important process of urbanization in the reform period. The Chinese pattern of urbanization since 1978 is distinguished by dual-track urbanization. This paper uses the dualtrack urbanization approach to examine the urbanization process in Pearl River Delta in the reform period. Whether urbanization takes place in main cities or low-order settlements has been a lasting theme of the urbanization inquiry. This issue is assessed by an analysis of the relative concentration and deconcentration of urban population among four groups of settlements: the primate city, cities with special economic zones, prefecture-level cities and county-level cities/counties. Contrary to previous research, it is found that both state-sponsored and spontaneous urbanization are driving a dispersed pattern of urbanization in the region.