Quantitative estimation of climate change effects on potential evapotranspiration in Beijingduring 1951-2010简

℃ Climate change is likely to affect hydrological cycle through precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture etc. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the climate change and the sensitivity of estimated evapotranspiration to each climatic variable for a semi-arid region of Beijing in North China using data set from 1951 to 2010. Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration （ETo）. Changes of ETo to each climatic variable was estimated using a sensitivity analysis method proposed in this study. Results show that in the past 60 years, mean temperature and vapor pressure deficit （VPD） were significantly increasing, relative humidity and sunshine hours were significantly decreasing, and wind speed greatly oscillated without a significant trend. Total precipitation was significantly decreasing in corn season （from June to September）, but it was increasing in wheat season （from October to next May）. The change rates of tem- perature, relative humidity, VPD, wind speed, annual total precipitation, sunshine hours and solar radiation were 0.42℃, 1.47%, 0.04 kPa, 0.05 m.s-1, 25.0 mm, 74.0 hours and 90.7 MJ.m-2 per decade, respectively. In the past 60 years, yearly ETo was increasing with a rate of 19.5 mm per decade, and total ETos in wheat and corn seasons were increasing with rates of 13.1 and 5.3 mm per decade, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that mean air temperature was the first key factor for ETo change in the past 60 years, causing an annual total ETo increase of 7.4%, followed by relative humidity （5.5%） and sunshine hours （-3.1%）; the less sensitivity factors were wind speed （0.7%）, minimum temperature （-0.3%） and maximum temperature （-0.2%）. A greater reduction of total ETo （12.3%） in the past 60 years was found in wheat season, mainly because of mean temperature （8.6%） and relative hu- midity （5.4%）, as compared to a reduction of 6.0% in ETo during corn season due to sunshinehours （-6.9%）, relative humidity （4.7%） and temperature （4.5%）. Increasing precipitation in the wheat season will improve crop growth, while decreasing precipitation and increasing ETo in the corn season induces a great pressure for local government and farmers to use water more efficiently by widely adopting water-saving technologies in the future.     

Effects of urbanization on daily temperature extremes in North China简

The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by ur- banization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of ho- mogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 mete- orological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP- Ⅱ reanalysis data （R-2）, and the data of simulations by regional climate model （RegCM3）. The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961-2010 and 1951-2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in an- nual and winter diurnal temperature range （DTR） are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature （TNn） are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights （TN90p） contributed by urbaniza- tion is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.     

川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害危险度评价简

川滇黔接壤地区是中国自然灾害极易发区,高频度、高强度的自然灾害已经给该区域社会经济发展造成严重威胁。通过对川滇黔接壤地区主要自然灾害的实地调查和数据分析,构建地震、泥石流、崩塌滑坡、洪涝、干旱、冰雹和低温冷害等7个主要灾种的危险度评价指标体系和评价指标数据库,利用GIS空间分析功能获取研究区自然灾害危险度综合评价图。结果表明：川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害表现出“两线一区”的基本格局,即小江—安宁河深大断裂、金沙江沿线和乌蒙山区3个自然灾害高危险区。宏观地质构造和地貌形态是控制川滇黔接壤地区自然灾害分布格局的主要因素。高度危险和极度危险区威胁的国土总面积、总人口、GDP总量都占到研究区的一半以上,防灾减灾成为该地区发展中不可忽视的关键问题。研究也发现自然灾害对农村区域影响更加显著,因此在该地区社会经济发展和扶贫开发中,特别是乌蒙山区集中连片特困地区开发中要高度重视自然灾害的影响。     

The GSC Regional Conferences held in 2013简

In order to provide better services to the members of Geographical Society of China （GSC） and geographers and engineers in China, and improve GSC＇s ability in hosting comprehensive aca- demic conferences, with the support of China Association for Science and Technology （CAST）, GSC established 7 regional divisions, representing different regions of China. In addition, GSC revised the annual conference organizing policies by hosting the comprehensive national aca- demic conference biannually. Instead of hosting annual national conferences, GSC organizes regional academic conferences. The new policy was initiated and executed in 2013. Up to now, 7 regional conferences have been successfully organized by the regional divisions in their areas. The 7 regional divisions are： Northern China Division, Northwest China Division, Northeast China Division, Southwest China Division, Central China Division, Southern China Division and Eastern China Division. The regional divisions promote the objectives of GSC through regional conferences and activities in their respective areas. The purpose is to build platforms extensively for academic exchange between geographers; collaborate with local geographical societies and integrate local resources; and unite all the regional academic organizations.     

The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic develop-ment in China简

Understanding the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic de- velopment on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance. Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China, applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic development level. The study identified the following results. （1） The 31 province-level re- gions fall into six categories： only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization, 3 regions are in medium over-urbanization, 11 slight over-urbanization, 8 basic coordination, one medium under-urbanization, and seven slight under-urbanization. （2） There are signifi- cant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development. （3） The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west. The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized, while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized. （4） The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect. Hence, two important insights are proposed. First, the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigi- lance. Second, urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

京津冀都市圈汽车产业空间布局演化研究简

产业的集聚与扩散所形成的产业结构变迁,带动城市空间发生重构。随着产业不断发展成熟,生产片段化的趋势日益显著,对地区产业链的研究有助于寻求区域空间结构优化的途径。本文基于企业层面的数据,刻画京津冀都市圈汽车制造业企业的空间分布格局,考察汽车企业在都市圈范围内集聚与扩散特点,探讨汽车产业链不同环节的地域特征差异,并分析影响微观企业空间布局的驱动力量。研究结果表明,1996年京津冀都市圈汽车产业集聚程度较低,2001年出现少数集聚中心主导的向心集聚,2010年核心城市与多个新兴集聚点共存;北京的城市功能拓展区和城市发展新区（朝阳、通州、大兴等）、天津市环城4 区（西青、东丽等）以及河北的沧州、廊坊是汽车零部件和配件企业的主要集聚区,而汽车修理企业则倾向于在北京的城市功能拓展区（丰台、朝阳）、天津市内六区和滨海新区以及河北的唐山和石家庄布局。基于条件logit模型的定量研究,验证了市场条件、集聚经济和政策引导等因素是影响京津冀都市圈汽车企业布局的主要因素。     

辽宁沿海经济带产业分工研究简

为反映区域产业分工现状,利用变异系数与空间洛伦茨曲线、空间基尼系数相结合,在产品层次上,对辽宁沿海经济带产业分工现状进行定量研究并提出相应的协调发展建议。结果表明：辽宁沿海经济带农业和采掘业依据自身比较优势发展相应产业,产业分工较为明确;制造业在行业层次存在同构现象,但在产品层次上,各地差异化发展明显,区域产业分工逐步显现;第三产业内部结构亟待调整,其中基础服务业与个人消费服务业发展较为完善,但生产和市场服务业中的金融、物流和专业技术服务业与公共服务业中的公共管理服务业发展相对滞后,影响工业化进程的推进与产业结构的升级。在此基础上,针对各产业分工结果,提出相应的协调发展建议。     

Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-RiverHeadwaters region,China简

The Three-River Headwaters region in China is an ecological barrier providing en- vironmental protection and regional sustainable development for the mid-stream and down- stream areas, which also plays an important role in animal husbandry in China. This study estimated the grassland yield in the Three-River Headwaters region based on MODIS NPP data, and calculated the proper livestock-carrying capacity of the grassland. We analyzed the overgrazing number and its spatial distribution characteristics through data comparison be- tween actual and proper livestock-carrying capacity. The results showed the following： （1） total grassland yield （hay） in the Three-River Headwaters region was 10.96 million tons in 2010 with an average grassland yield of 465.70 kg/hm2 （the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest in turn）; （2） the proper livestock-carrying capacity in the Three-River Headwaters region is 12.19 million sheep units （hereafter described as ＂SU＂）, and the average stocking capacity is 51.27 SU [the proper carrying capacity is above 100 SU/km2 in the eastern counties, 60 SU/km2 in the cen- tral counties （except Madoi County）, and 30 SU/km2 in the western counties]; and （3） total overgrazing number was 6.52 million SU in the Three-River Headwaters region in 2010, with an average overgrazing ratio of 67.88% and an average overgrazing number of 27.43 SU/km2 A higher overgrazing ratio occurred in Tongde, Xinghai, Yushu, Henan and Z~kog. There was no overgrazing in Zhiduo, Tanggula Township and Darlag, Qumerleb and Madoi. The re- mainder of the counties had varying degrees of overgrazing.     

基于SEBS模型的西藏地区地表日蒸散量研究（英文）

The estimation of surface evapotranspiration(ET) with satellite dataset is one of the main subjects in the understanding of climate change,disaster monitoring and the circulation of water vapor and energy in Tibet Autonomous Region(TAR).This research selects satellite images on January 11,April 6,July 31 and October 19 in 2010 as the representative of winter,spring,summer and autumn respectively,estimates the distribution of daily surface ET based on the surface energy balance system(SEBS) along with potential evapotranspiration(PET) and ET derived from Penman-Monteith(P-M) method.The results are obtained as follows.(1) The seasonal distribution of ET and PET basically decreases from the southeast part to the northwest part of TAR.Although ET and PET have similar spatial distributions,there are still some differences to estimate the extreme values especially the maximum value in the middle and southeastern parts of TAR.No matter what kind of methods we adopted,the maximum value of ET and PET always appears in summer,followed by autumn or spring while that in winter is the smallest.(2) In order to better understand the accuracy of SEBS model in the estimation of ET,we compared the ET from SEBS and the ET obtained from P-M method.Results show that the ET from SEBS could estimates the variation trend of actual ET,but it slightly underestimates or overestimates the value of ET as a whole,especially for those areas with thick forest.(3) The spatial distribution of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) exhibits a decreasing trend from the southeast part to the northwest part of TAR which displays remarkable consistency of distributions between ET and vegetation index.ET is well positively related to NDVI,minimum,mean,maximum air temperature and sunshine duration in different seasons while negatively related to precipitation,relative humidity and wind speed in summer.     

宁夏回族自治区土地沙漠化研究

该文分析土地沙漠化的形成是不合理的人类经济活动和恶劣的自然环境相互作用的结果。人类不仅是促进土地沙漠化发生发展的主要动因 ,同时也是沙漠化的受害者。只有采取合理的符合生态原则的治理活动 ,诸如一系列政策保护与技术防治相结合的措施 ,才能实现土地沙漠化逆转     

西藏小城镇体系发展思路及其空间布局和功能分类

对西藏小城镇发展现状与问题进行了分析,提出了西藏小城镇发展思路及发展战略,将西藏小城镇发展空间布局划分为如下五大区域:①藏南宽谷山原城镇发展区,②藏东南山地城镇发展区;③藏东“三江”流域城镇发展区,④藏北高原城镇发展区;⑤藏西高原城镇发展区。通过各城镇发展区自然环境特点、区位条件、特色资源分布及特色产业发展方向与潜力的分析,对130个建制镇的功能进行了分类。     

西藏自治区农牧民素质对收入的影响

文章以西藏自治区为研究背景,在抽样调查的基础上综合分析西藏农牧民文化、身体和心理素质状况,结果显示西藏农牧民素质偏低是限制剩余劳动力转移、制约区域经济发展的主要因素;农牧民素质与收入水平正相关;政府针对教育和科技的投入对增加农牧民收入贡献和边际效益都较大;具有较高素质的农牧民是当地的富裕典型;西藏自治区增加农牧民收入、发展农村经济、提高农牧民生活水平、妥善解决“三农”问题的关键是提高农牧民素质。针对这一情况,文章以生态经济理论为指导提出了旨在提高农牧民素质的对策,包括加大教育投入、稳定农村科技队伍、引进科技人员、对劳动力进行短期培训等措施。     

西藏自治区农牧民收入结构分析

依据入户调查资料 ,文章重点分析了现阶段西藏农牧民的收入结构 ,包括收入来源、收入性质、现金收入等内容 ,探索了不同地区 (农区、牧区、半农半牧区、一江两河农业开发区、城郊区等 )及不同收入段农牧民收入结构和收入来源的差异。通过分析发现西藏农牧民收入有以下特征 :①收入以实物为主 ,现金收入和可支配收入少 ;②城郊区农牧民收入多样化指数高 ,农牧民收入高 ,收入多样化指数与农牧民收入正相关 ;③低收入农户收入来源单一 ,抗风险能力弱 ,收入增加困难 ;④从生活质量看农区优于牧区 ,半农半牧区农牧民生活质量最差 ;⑤影响农牧民人均收入的主要因子为人均生产性投入、区域通达度等。     

西藏粮油生产与供给的发展趋势

本文对西藏粮油生产发展趋势与特点及影响西藏粮油生产的因素进行了分析。结果表明： 单产是目前西藏粮油总产量提高的首要驱动力。而提高粮油单产则需采取： 切实加强农作物优良品种的选育与推广; 粮油种植技术规范化、系统化和模式化; 大力推广低产田改造技术, 扩大中低产田改造的面积; 兴修水利和确保水利设施的质量等措施。     

西藏自治区农牧业和农牧区经济结构战略性调整探讨

自改革开放以来，西藏农牧区基础设施建设和农牧业综合生产能力发生了显著的变化，农牧民收入呈现稳定增长态势。在新的形势下，如何加快农牧民收入的增长，实现党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的目标，进一步推进农牧业和农牧区经济结构战略性调整显得十分的必要。根据西藏的实际情况，提出农牧业和农牧区经济结构战略性调整的基本构架，即在确定“九个生态经济区”基础上，建设“九个特色优势资源生产基地”和发展“九个特色优势产业”；对各生态经济区发展方向及其特色优势资源生产基地和特色优势产业的布局与发展进行了分析。     

中国西部大开发中的人口问题研究--以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

文章以新疆为例，首先分析了中国西部人口的基本特征；然后讨论了人口因素对西部大开发的影响，认为西部大开发应拒绝人口数量的过快增长，尽快提高人口素质。最后强调，为适应西部大开发，西部地区应转变观念，合理控制人口规模；采取多种途径，努力提高人口素质；正确认识民族人口问题，进一步优化西部人口结构。     

新疆S214省道防沙体系对近地表风沙流的影响

对新疆S214省道台特玛湖干涸湖盆段防沙体系内外的风沙流输沙和风速进行了同步观测,数据分析表明：观测时防沙体系中阻固沙带已拦截了大量风沙,虽近地表风速被削弱程度不大,但风沙流输沙的43.26%仍可被防沙体系所拦截和固定,而剩余部分则可借助路侧输沙带的较大风力输移到公路下风侧,且不产生路面沙害,表明阻-固-输结合型防沙体系非常适宜单风向强风沙环境。S214省道防沙实践可为其他强风沙环境公路防沙提供重要借鉴经验。     

新疆多语种地名空间分布特征研究

将新疆维吾尔自治区16037个地名作为研究对象,利用ArcGIS10.5核密度的空间平滑分析法和数理统计方法,以多语种地名的视角,分析新疆各语种地名空间分布特征及所蕴含的文化内涵。研究发现：汉族与维吾尔族为农耕民族,因生产方式对地形、坡度的挑剔和水源的依赖等特征,新疆汉语和维吾尔语地名多分布于山前冲积平原,以天山山脉为界,天山北麓汉语地名集中分布,南麓维吾尔语地名分布密集;蒙古族与哈萨克族为游牧民族,因其换季游牧需要广阔草场等特性,蒙古语地名多分布于天山北麓以西的缓坡、低山、高平原地区,总体呈现大分散、小集中的特点。哈萨克语地名集中分布于阿尔泰山、塔尔巴哈台山及伊犁河谷的中山区。总体上,新疆多民族多语种地名的分布特征与地形海拔、坡度等地理环境条件和以此为基础的生产方式关系密切。