Cost-reliability consequence resource allocation: Application to an offshore structure

A model is given for the planning of the inspection and maintenance operations of a system: an application to an offshore structure is described. The objectiveis to minimize the total cost of inspections and consequences of failures, subject to an upper boundon the total failure probability of the system. An incremental algorithm is defined for the approximate solution of the problem, and a method is described for the evaluation of the quality of any feasible solution in terms of bounds of the optimal objective value. The incremental algorithm solves the problem parametrically for certain values of the system reliability. The model has been applied to obtain an optimal inspection plan against the consequences of gross errors, accidental events, fatigue and corrosion in terms of input describing element importance values, element reliability values, error detection probabilities, error detection costs and error repair costs for parametrical variations of the structural reliability.     

An integration of multi-criteria decision making techniques with a delay time model for determination of inspection intervals for marine machinery systems

For certain critical equipment items in marine machinery systems, the optimum maintenance strategy would be a scheduled on-condition operation. This involves inspection of the equipment items in order to monitor their performance degradation and, invariably, carry out repair or replacement tasks. The main challenge with this type of maintenance approach is the determination of the appropriate interval for performing the inspection task. This paper presents a methodology which integrates multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools with a delay time model for the determination of optimum inspection intervals for marine machinery systems. With this approach, multiple decision criteria are modelled with the delay time concept and aggregated with MCDM tools such that different criteria can be applied simultaneously in the ranking of different inspection interval alternatives. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using the case study of a water cooling pump of the central cooling system of a marine diesel engine.     

The Norwegian plan for integrated ecosystem-based management of the marine environment in the Norwegian Sea

A White Paper on a new integrated management plan for the Norwegian Sea was launched by the Norwegian government in May 2009. Following international guidelines for ecosystem-based management, the plan provides an overall framework for managing all human activities (mainly oil and gas industry, fishing, and shipping) in the area to ensure the continued production and function of the ecosystem. The plan is based on an assessment of the present and projected future impact of human activities and of the interactions between them, taking into account deficits in current knowledge of ecosystem state and dynamics. Areas of particular value in terms of biodiversity or biological production were identified. In each of these valuable areas, any access for substantial human activity is to be carefully managed. To monitor the overall development of the Norwegian Sea, a set of indicators with associated environmental quality objectives have been selected. The approach used builds upon experience gained from the first integrated Norwegian management plan for a marine area, the Barents Sea–Lofoten region, developed in 2002–2006. Work towards a Norwegian management plan for the North Sea, including Skagerrak, was initiated in 2009.     

福建海岸侵蚀风险评价研究

海岸侵蚀和淤积一直存在于海岸带系统内并塑造着现在的海岸线,近年来不当的人类活动以及全球气候变化加剧了海岸侵蚀,导致沿海土地流失,威胁人类生命财产安全。本文构建了海岸侵蚀风险评价理论体系,阐述了海岸侵蚀风险评价的方法,为海岸侵蚀风险管理提供有效指导。运用层析分析法确定评价指标权重;根据模糊集理论合成海岸侵蚀风险等级。以福建省海岸带为例,进行了海岸侵蚀风险评价,编绘了风险评价图,评价结果与客观情况比较吻合,验证了文中理论方法的适用性。本文构建的海岸侵蚀风险评价理论体系可以推广到其他区域,但应根据实际情况适当调整指标个数以及指标权重。     

台风下TLP立管系统可靠性评估

针对在南海海域频发的台风自然灾害,考虑海况随机性、结构随机性以及作业参数的随机性,采用梯度投影确定取样点的响应面法,分别建立P2D、D2P和P2P(P指生产立管,D指钻井立管)三种作业模式下TLP串行立管系统的结构极限状态方程。并在建立立管可靠性分析模型的基础上,确定一种立管可靠度计算方法。算例结合南海某TLP平台给出了上述方法的具体应用。研究表明,10年一遇台风情况下,P2D、D2P和P2P三种工况中生产立管系统的失效概率均小于0.001%,钻井立管系统的可靠度分别为0.016%和0.113%。在大于200年一遇的强台风情况下,P2P工况时的上下游生产立管系统失效概率均大于0.32%和0.018%。因此建议10年一遇台风情况下,停止钻井立管作业;在大于200年一遇的强台风情况下,停止生产立管作业。研究结果可为南海TLP立管系统可靠度评估及安全作业技术支持。     

Early warning and mass evacuation in coastal cities

The FP7 Theseus research project (2009–2013) aims to develop and assess innovative technologies and methodologies for coastal protection against erosion, flooding and environmental damages. While protection structures may help to reduce the level of hazard and the expected degree of loss, some danger of technical failures or human errors will always remain. For extreme events, the implementation of non-structural measures as early warning systems and disaster management practices is required to ensure the protection of population.During Theseus, a methodology for helping the local authorities to prepare an action plan in case of coastal flooding was developed and tested on the estuary of Gironde in France. The methodology builds over the return of experience from past events and tries to clearly identify all the stages of an evacuation and the thinking process that can lead to a robust evacuation plan. It relies on a conceptual framework – SADT – which helps to understand how data should be processed from its collection to its use in the plan. The risk scenarios were calculated for current and future conditions of the XXIst century, taking into account the effects of climate change. The methodology is supported by the OSIRIS software, prototyped during the FP5 eponymous project and later distributed by CETMEF and the French basin authorities of Loire and Meuse.The methodology for the preparation of evacuation plans was applied on a pilot city of Theseus, Bordeaux on the estuary of Gironde (France), and the software used to calculate evacuation times was tried out on Cesenatico near the Adriatic coast (Italy). This comparison verified the replicability of methodological guidelines in two different European contexts. The cultural and organizational differences and the different number of people involved underlined strong questions to be addressed when applying them. In order to assess the efficiency of an evacuation strategy and to compute the number of people successfully evacuated over time, a macroscopic model (not representing each individual vehicle but only flows of vehicles in congestion points) for the simulation of traffic congestion was used, based on the work of the University of Twente, Rijkswaterstaat and INFRAM. This model will be integrated in the Theseus decision support system for helping coastal managers to select their strategy for risk mitigation.     

A methodology for assessing the reliability of taut and slack mooring systems against instability

In the present study, a methodology for reliability assessment of slack and taut mooring systems against instability has been presented. For this purpose, first, stability analysis of slack and taut mooring systems has been carried out and instable regions are obtained using procedure available in the literature. Having known the instable region(s), methodology for reliability assessment has been proposed which is based on Monte Carlo Simulation technique. After using the proposed methodology, probabilities of failure and reliability indices has been obtained for the above systems. Some parametric studies, such as, effect of lower and upper limits of instability and effect of frequency range of generations are also included to obtain the results of practical interest.     

Risk Based Optimal Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration

A framework of risk based inspection and repair planning was presented to optimize for the ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. The planning problem was formulated as an optimization problem where the expected lifetime costs were minimized with a eonstraint on the minimum aceeptable rehability index. The safety margins were established for the inspection events, the repair events and the failure events for ship struetures. Moreover, the formulae were derived to calculate failure probabihties and repair probabilities. Based on them, a component subjected to corrosion is investigated for illustration of the process of selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies were provided. The results show that the optimal inspection instants should take place before the reliability index reaches the minimum acceptable reliability index. The optimal target failure probability is 10^-3. In addition, a balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs by means of the risk-based optimal inspection and repair method, which is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy.     

船体结构腐蚀检测规划的成本及效益分析

建立了基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测规划的成本-效益分析模型。以费效比作为选择最优检测策略的标准,最优的检测策略是在保证结构设计工作寿命期内的可靠指标大于最低可靠指标的基础上,使得结构生命周期内总的费效比最大。在此基础上,以受点腐蚀损伤的船体构件为例,对其检测策略进行了成本-效益评估,并对计算结果进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,基于风险的成本及效益分析方法可以将检测规划的经济性和可靠性有效地结合起来,能够在风险与成本之间达到一种平衡,它在优化检测策略时是有效的。     

On the design of beach nourishment projects using static equilibrium concepts: Application to the Spanish coast

The concept of equilibrium plan form and equilibrium profile has been widely used as an engineering tool in order to design beach nourishment projects. The scope of this paper is to further explore this “equilibrium beach” concept in crenulated bays, as a long-term tool for beach nourishment projects. The proposed methodology is based on González and Medina (2001) and combines the static equilibrium plan and profile for long-term analysis. This methodology includes a modified equilibrium plan form, which is able to define the orientation of the local wave front in the diffracting point, and also to locate the downcoast starting point of the static equilibrium beach from which the parabolic plan form of Hsu and Evans (1989) is valid. This methodology permits the application of any equilibrium profile formulation. An example of the application of this methodology and long-term formulations to the design of the Spanish nourishment project of Poniente Beach (Gijón) is presented. Ten years after its construction, the beach has still got a static equilibrium and remains pretty close to the predicted equilibrium beach in plan and profile.     

基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究

在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。     

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。     

Reliability assessment of multi-megawatt capacity offshore dynamic positioning systems

A reliable Dynamic Positioning (DP) system is the key requirement for critical offshore activities. This paper presents the quantitative reliability assessment for offshore multi-megawatt capacity electric DP systems based on the present technological maturity and the offshore industry-reported component failure rates. It is identified that the International Maritime Organization defined DP1, DP2 DP3 architectures with fully redundant power generators and electric variable speed thrusters could have mean time to fail periods of 0.3, 2.1 and 2.5 years respectively. In the analyzed DP2 architecture, the power generation cum management system, the computer control cum sensors system and the thruster systems contribute to 17%, 42%, and 41% of the total DP system failures. The results presented could be used for reliability-centered design and maintenance planning of multi megawatt capacity DP systems.     

Use of local knowledge in marine protected area management

For decades, fishermen in most parts of the world have been experiencing a reduction in fish abundances. Overexploitation and increasing demands are the glaring visible causes, but weakness or absence of fishery management is the core problem. Faced with repeated failure of fishery management and the resulting overexploitation in fish stocks, new management plans are needed in order to preserve both fishermen's jobs and food security. A growing number of published sources have proposed marine protected areas (MPA) as a fishery management tool. The decision of MPA design requires close collaboration with local fishermen communities for it to be accepted and respected. This paper focus on the case of a Uruguayan lagoon, the Rocha lagoon, which is exploited by two fishermen communities. The lagoon is located inside a national park. Park authorities are in the process of designing a management plan that defines a MPA inside the lagoon. The plan also sets out the rules to be upheld for the artificial opening of the sandbar that separates the lagoon from the ocean. It is shown that it is relevant to study the local ecological knowledge (LEK) in order (1) to understand the fishery related ecological issues within the lagoon and (2) to highlight an existing conflict between two fishermen communities. Studying the LEK allowed a clear representation of the factors that must be taken into account when defining the management plan. Furthermore, the LEK study in itself creates an appropriate place for inter-community debate and it enhances the acceptance of the future management plan.     

落物撞击作用下海底管道风险评估

海洋平台吊机起吊货物频繁,落物事故偶有发生,对平台附近的海底管道造成危害。在DNV推荐方法的基础上,改进了碰撞概率的计算方法。运用概率统计的方法以及失效概率理论编制Matlab程序,充分考虑各因素不确定性基础上,对落物撞击作用下海底管道进行了风险评估及敏感性分析。为减少落物对海底管线的损伤,及如何配置合理的防护措施提供了科学依据。     

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Considering Corrosion Model Uncertainty

Owing to high costs and unnecessary inspections necessitated by the traditional inspection planning for ship structures, the risk-based inspection and repair planning should be investigated for the most cost-effective inspection. This paper aims to propose a cost-benefit assessment model of risk-based inspection and repair planning for ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. Then, the benefit-cost ratio is taken to be an index for the selection of the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The planning problem is formulated as an optimization problem where the benefit-cost ratio for the expected lifetime is maximized with a constraint on the minimum acceptalbe reliability index. To account for the effect of corrosion model uncertainty on the cost-benefit assessment, two corrosion models, namgly, Paik＇ s model and Guedes Soares＇ model, are adopted for analysis. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. Sensitivity studies are also providet. The results indicate that the proposed method of risk-based cost-benefit analysis can effectively integrate the economy with reliability of the inspection and repair planning. A balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs with the proposed method, which is very. effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. It is pointed out that the corrosion model uncertainty and parametric uncertaintg have a significant impact on the cost-benefit assessment of inspection and repair planning.     

The missing layer: Geo-technologies, communities, and implications for marine spatial planning

The assessment and management of marine resources is an increasingly spatial affair dependent upon emerging geo-technologies, such as geographic information systems, and the subsequent production of diverse layers of spatial information. These rapid developments are, however, focused on biophysical processes and data collection initiatives; the social landscape of the marine environment is undocumented and remains a “missing layer” in decision-making. As a result, the resource areas upon which stakeholders and communities are dependent are neither mapped nor integrated into planning processes. We report on a participatory method to map the presence of fishing communities at-sea. The lessons learned concerning the spatial representation of communities informs not only fisheries, but other sectors struggling to incorporate similarly the human dimensions of the marine environment in assessment and planning.     

A methodology for defining homogeneous water bodies in estuaries – Application to the transitional systems of the EU Water Framework Directive

A methodology is developed and tested for division of estuarine and coastal systems into water bodies for monitoring and management purposes. This division is often implicit in the choice of sampling stations and in pollution abatement measures applied to different locations – it is now an explicit requirement of European Union Directive 2000/60/EC (Water Framework Directive) and recommended by United States Agencies such as EPA and NOAA. The approach considers both natural characteristics and the human dimension, by means of a stepwise methodology, which considers, on the one hand, morphology and salinity distribution, and, on the other, appropriate indicators of pressure and state. In the present application, nitrogen and phosphorus loading was used as the pressure component and chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen as indicators of state. The criteria for system division were defined based on (1) an adimensional shape factor and salinity classes for the natural component; and (2) a normalised pressure index and (ASSETS) eutrophication symptom classes for the human dimension. Water quality databases and GIS were used to develop spatial distributions for the various components, and the results were aggregated into a final water body division, using tidal excursion as a “common sense” test. The methodology was applied to three well-studied systems in Portugal, a tubular estuary (Mondego), a wide lagunal estuary (Sado) and a coastal barrier island system (Ria Formosa). Although a final definition of water bodies will usually be a policy decision, this type of approach for the division of coastal systems into management units scientifically informs the decision-making process.     

海洋资源资产国家所有权委托代理考核评价的逻辑与实施建议

为保障海洋资源资产国家所有权委托代理机制的实施成效,有必要对其结果进行考核评价。文章探讨了考核评价的理论逻辑,并在现状分析的基础上提出做好相关工作的对策建议。研究结果表明：考核评价的实施涉及内容、实施主体、评价方式、结果运用等关键要素;同时,应从全面实施海洋资源资产化管理、深化海洋综合管理体制机制改革、构建完备的考评体系、完善领导干部监督检查制度、鼓励社会参与、建立海洋资源资产数据库等方面对考核评价工作进行完善。