风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述

脆弱性是自然灾害风险研究的热点,风暴潮灾害脆弱性与风暴潮自然过程强度以及沿海社会经济、人口、自然环境等因素相关。本文从风暴潮灾害脆弱性定义出发,对国内外风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性和物理脆弱性进行了回顾,重点对人口、海堤、房屋等风暴潮灾害典型承灾体物理脆弱性研究进展进行了论述,分析了风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中存在的不确定性,探讨了风暴潮灾害脆弱性在灾害损失评估、保险及再保险、防灾减灾决策支持等领域的应用,对未来风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究提出了以下展望：①开发符合中国沿海区域风暴潮灾害特征和承灾体分布的定量化、精细化脆弱性曲线,拓展风暴潮脆弱性评价结果在保险理赔、灾害损失评估等领域应用;②气候变化背景下中国沿海面临风暴潮巨灾风险,迫切需要建立科学的基于灾害实地踏勘以及物模实验、数值模拟相结合的风暴潮灾害典型承灾体脆弱性评估方法模型。     

沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展

联合国国际减灾十年计划提出应更加重视自然灾害所造成的风险及其相应的防灾预案。 经过十几年的发展, 风暴潮灾害风险评估逐渐形成了独特的研究领域。目前国内外风暴潮灾害风 险评估研究主要集中在对风暴潮数值预报、潮高估算和重现期研究, 危险性评估, 承灾体暴露性 和脆弱性评估, 灾害风险区划、灾情损失评估等, 对沿海城市的风暴潮灾害综合风险及其次生灾 害链风险的研究则较少。从自然、社会、经济、政策、文化和工程等多角度建立沿海城市风暴潮灾 害风险评估指标体系, 运用3S 技术对沿海城市的风暴潮进行综合灾害风险研究是当前风暴潮灾 害研究的重要方向。今后的研究重点应构建基于场景的风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系和开发基 于风险的决策支持系统, 加强灾害撤退避难图编制研究, 建立持续的城市灾害风险管理体制以及 对防灾预案和灾情损失的定量化预评估等。     

新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮

分析了新奥尔良的地理环境,概述了卡特里娜飓风与丽塔飓风及其对新奥尔良的影响.简述了华南沿海的台风暴潮灾害情况,提出了新奥尔良飓风灾难对华南沿海的几点警示:(1)加强提高防御台风暴潮灾害的认识;(2)保护好沿海抗御台风暴潮的"前沿阵地;(3)加强和完善防台风暴潮应急预案;(4)应对台风暴潮要充分考虑全球环境变化.     

Comprehensive Evaluation of Farm Household Livelihood Assets in a Western Mountainous Area of China: A Case Study in Zunyi City

As the foundation of farm household structure, livelihood asset status is the basis for farmers to gain opportunities, adopt livelihood strategies, resist livelihood risk, and engage in positive livelihood achievements. Quantifying farm household assets identifies future development trends that are fundamentally necessary to predict farm household vulnerability and strategy, as well as understanding farmers’ current living situations. Using Zunyi City in China’s western mountainous area as a case study, we conducted stratified sampling and participatory rural investigation appraisal to collect data on the attributes of farm households’ livelihood assets and livelihood strategies to establish an index evaluation system and enable evaluation and analysis of farm households with different livelihood strategies. Our research indicates that due to structural differences, total livelihood assets of farm households with different livelihood strategies are similar. Rural households have an abundance of natural and material assets and deficiencies in human, financial and social assets. Non-rural households and part- time households are abundant in human, financial and social assets and deficient in natural and material assets.     

近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价

采用1990~2009年风暴潮灾害损失数据,选择中国东部沿海地区11个省市为研究对象,借鉴沿海脆弱性指数(Coastal Vulnerability Index,CVI)方法的评估思路,构建风暴潮灾害脆弱性指数SSVI(Storm Surge Vulnerability Index,SSVI),采用加法模型评价中国沿海省区风暴潮灾害的物理脆弱性。结果表明:沿海地区风暴潮脆弱性存在较大年际变化;高和很高脆弱性等级主要分布于东南沿海各省区,低和很低脆弱性等级主要分别于北部沿海各省区,而中等脆弱性等级空间分布则变化较大。     

珠江三角洲脆弱性研究进展

珠江三角洲是我国第二大河三角洲。随着全球变暖、海平面上升和人类活动的加强,珠江三角洲自然的固有脆弱性和人为的特殊脆弱性显著增强。自然的固有脆弱性包括基底沉降、新构造运动、地震、软土层、海平面变化、海水入侵、风暴潮与洪水等;人为的特殊脆弱性包括污染、过度采砂和抽水、人工填土及人工建筑等。通过对目前珠江三角洲各项脆弱性分散研究文献和资料的收集汇总,把珠江三角洲作为一个整体系统进行归纳分析研究。结果表明这些脆弱性的研究还存在初级定性描述、相互矛盾、缺乏整体性和系统性,监测-预警-应急机制不够完善。认为珠江三角洲脆弱性研究还应加强定量分析,采用新的方法和手段,重视各脆弱性之间的耦合作用及珠江三角洲脆弱性变化对人类社会经济发展的影响,重点研究珠江三角洲对脆弱性变化的自适应性。     

Fluid Households,Complex Families: The Impacts of Children's Migration as a Response to HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa*

Abstract

The fluidity of southern African families is related to a long history of internal and external migration. Currently, HIV/AIDS is having a dramatic impact on extended family structures, with the migration of individual members employed as a coping strategy. Children's migration is one aspect of this that is often distinct from that undertaken by other household members. This article is based on qualitative research conducted in Lesotho and Malawi with young migrants and the households that receive them. It examines the processes of fragmentation and re-formation of households through the movements of children that are taking place in response to HIV/AIDS, and explores the impacts these processes have on young migrants and the households they join.     

Fluid Households,Complex Families: The Impacts of Children's Migration as a Response to HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa*

The fluidity of southern African families is related to a long history of internal and external migration. Currently, HIV/AIDS is having a dramatic impact on extended family structures, with the migration of individual members employed as a coping strategy. Children's migration is one aspect of this that is often distinct from that undertaken by other household members. This article is based on qualitative research conducted in Lesotho and Malawi with young migrants and the households that receive them. It examines the processes of fragmentation and re‐formation of households through the movements of children that are taking place in response to HIV/AIDS, and explores the impacts these processes have on young migrants and the households they join.     

The household economy of pastoralists and wage-labourers in the Richtersveld, South Africa

The Richtersveld is situated in an arid environment and its inhabitants are confronted with various hazards. Based on data collected during 22 months of ethnographic fieldwork, the livelihood strategies of Richtersvelders are explored. Besides a thorough examination of the diversified economy, the internal institutional arrangements for pooling and redistributing resources within households are analysed in this paper. Encouraging household members to engage in different activities and to share their income—as well as skills to manage the household budget properly—are integral to diversification and reducing the vulnerability of households. This study has shown that even in a community marked by considerable dependence on wage labour, almost three-quarters of the households are directly involved in stock farming. Although pastoralism still plays an important role for households, it has shifted from being the core economic activity to being an insurance against unemployment and contributing to subsistence. Stock farming serves to build up resilience through the diversification of economic activities inside the household. In the South African context, the relevance of activities dependent on land has implications not only for rural development, but also for post-apartheid land and agrarian reform.     

农户贫困脆弱性测度及其影响因素——基于秦巴山区的实证分析

防止致贫返贫、建立脱贫长效机制是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的关键落脚点。探究农户贫困脆弱性及其机制可为建立预防致贫返贫机制提供思路和借鉴。通过构建贫困脆弱性分析框架和测度体系,以秦巴山区为例,测度农户贫困脆弱性水平,分析贫困脆弱性差异,采用分位数回归模型揭示农户贫困脆弱性的影响因素。结果表明：① 农户贫困脆弱性水平均值为0.046,贫困脆弱性等级呈现“纺锤形”分布。② 农户贫困脆弱性水平及不同维度间差异明显。补贴依赖型、务农主导型农户受健康冲击或教育压力大且适应力薄弱,贫困脆弱性较高。多元型和纯务工型农户具有低风险与低敏感性,适应力较高,贫困脆弱性较低。③ 农户的暴露风险、适应力具有地域分异性,中山区农户自然风险较高且高贫困脆弱性的农户比例大;河谷川塬区农户的适应力较高。④ 建档立卡贫困识别与贫困脆弱性评估结果具有一定差异。⑤ 农户贫困脆弱性受家庭层面的户主受教育程度、健康水平、职业类型、社会连接度、政策依赖性、非农就业人数、生计多样性以及村域层面的地形起伏度、道路可达性、与河流的距离以及教育可及性等因素的影响。     

广东沿海地区风暴潮易损性评估

从系统学角度出发,对广东省沿海地区(阳江-汕尾岸段)风暴潮灾害易损性因子进行综合分析,提出从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面对风暴潮承灾体进行易损性评估,建立广东省沿海地区风暴潮易损性评价指标体系.依托国际通用的海岸易损性评估模式并对其进行改进,建立与广东省沿海地区相适应的风暴潮易损性评价模型...     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

山区农户双重风险感知对搬迁意愿和搬迁行为的影响

以受汶川“5.12”地震和“7.10”特大山洪泥石流灾害严重影响的汶川县原草坡乡为例,从农户风险感知现状出发,考察风险感知对搬迁意愿和搬迁行为的不同影响。研究结果表明：农户对自然灾害风险感知越强、对搬迁安置风险感知越弱,其搬迁意愿越强;较高的自然灾害风险感知会提高农户搬离灾害隐患点或风险区的概率,较强的搬迁安置风险感知会降低农户全家搬迁的可能性;搬迁安置风险感知对未搬迁和部分搬迁农户的影响程度超过自然灾害风险感知的影响。基于汶川县原草坡乡的实证研究,提出避灾搬迁安置决策中的“双重风险感知”假说。     

城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hot-spots in disaster research.However,up until now,urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes.This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research,which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China.As an example,we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai.Based on the basic concept of disaster risk,this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods.Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure,we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments.A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model,an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model,was applied to simulate inundation area and depth.Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys,which were further applied to analyse vulnerability,exposure and loss assessment.Finally,the ex-ceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities.A framework was also devel-oped for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss.This is a new explora-tion for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.     

快速空间扩张下西安市边缘区社会脆弱性多尺度评估

社会脆弱性评估是解析社会脆弱性要素关系、量化社会脆弱性程度、识别脆弱空间单元或社会群体的重要途径,是实现社会脆弱性精准治理的重要依据。本文从外部扰动、内在结构、构成维度、尺度层级4个方面阐释了社会脆弱性概念内涵,并建立起社会脆弱性评估框架（SVAF）,明确了社会脆弱性评价流程、评价目标、评价要素和数据方法,提出从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建社会脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,以西安城市边缘区为例,视快速空间扩张为城市边缘区社会系统的主要扰动因子,开展多尺度社会脆弱性评价,得出街道、社区和农户3个尺度上的社会脆弱性空间（类型）分异结果。街道尺度上,低社会脆弱性街道占主体（48%）,且多邻近市中心;社区尺度上,居住开发型社区社会脆弱性最高,教育功能型最低;农户尺度上,社会脆弱性以中等为主（52.7%）,高社会脆弱性农户（17.5%）少于低社会脆弱性农户（29.9%）。随着街道-社区-农户尺度的下降,社会脆弱性指数的低值化集中趋势愈发显著,在农户-社区尺度之间,社会脆弱性指数等级对应关系相对明显,而其他两个尺度间并不显著。本研究可在社会脆弱性评价流程、评价指标体系、数据方法组织以及多尺度评价等方面为社会脆弱性评估理论研究与实践应用提供有益的探索。     

2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害网络建模及演化机制研究

基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐日气温和降水格网数据,利用复杂网络分析方法,对2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害综合致灾过程进行再认识,综合分析低温雨雪冰冻灾害在时空维度的网络特性。结果表明：2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害是典型的多灾种叠加事件,低温与雨雪灾害叠加放大了致灾因子的危险性;基础设施设防水平低与春运高峰叠加增大了承灾体的脆弱性;低山丘陵区与人口聚集区叠加降低了孕灾环境的稳定性。低温冰冻雨雪灾害具有小世界特征和核心—边缘结构,具体表现为：在空间打击上具有集聚性,影响区域相对集中;在时间打击上具有连续性,间隔1天事件相对较少。在研究方法上,复杂网络是一种有效分析多灾种叠加的方法,可以进一步挖掘自然灾害的时空演化信息。     

Mapping and ranking global mortality,affected population and GDP loss risks for multiple climatic hazards

Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that: countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.     

西藏农牧区家庭生活用水特征及其影响因素

农村家庭用水结构调查与影响因素分析是分析农村用水情况,保障用水安全的基础。采用问卷调查和实测的方式获取西藏自治区9个县（市、区）的84个家庭的用水数据,对比分析不同家庭的用水量及用水结构,总结了西藏农村家庭用水的影响因素。研究表明：农村家庭人均生活用水量在33~38 L/d之间,家庭差异显著,主要集中在洗衣、洗菜、洗碗用水三项,家庭生活用水的主要用水项是卫生用水和厨房用水;生产方式与文化风俗习惯影响家庭用水水平,人口组成影响用水结构,常住人口数和家庭收入水平与家庭人均用水量呈现显著负相关。     

综合气象致灾因子影响人口、死亡人口与GDP损失风险的制图与排名（英文）

Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that: countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.     

基于农户视角的洪灾社会脆弱度及影响因素——以安康市4个滨河村庄为例

降低洪灾社会脆弱度是缓解洪灾社会影响,建立洪水韧性的重要途径。本文从敏感性、适应性和暴露度3个方面构建微观尺度下的洪灾社会脆弱度评价指标体系,以安康市4个滨河村庄为例,运用基于熵权的综合指数法评价农户的洪灾社会脆弱度,并通过BP神经网络分析厘清评价指标与社会脆弱度之间的重要性关系,识别出洪灾社会脆弱度的主要影响因素。据此提出相应的对策建议作为降低农户洪灾社会脆弱度的实践依据。研究表明：①案例村调研样本中近一半的农户处于高社会脆弱度等级,由此推算,研究区有715个农户具有较高的洪灾社会脆弱度;②受访者健康状况、防汛信息渠道、避灾疏散方式、建筑质量、是否有病残人口、家庭收入多样性、5岁以下幼儿比重和60岁以上老年人比重是农户社会脆弱度的主要影响因素;③基于农户视角的洪灾社会脆弱度评价能准确地识别出脆弱度较高的农户,其结果在降低洪灾社会脆弱度方面更具有现实意义。