自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异影响的评价方法

With the rapid economic development during the last 30 years in China, more and more disparities have emerged among different regions. It has been one of the hot topics in the fields of physical geography and economic geography, and also has been the task for Chinese government to handle. Nevertheless, to quantitatively assess the impacts of physio-geographical patterns （PGP） on the regional development disparity has been ignored for a long time. In this paper, a quantitative method was adopted to assess the marginal effects of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity using the partial determination coefficients. The paper described the construction of the evaluation model step by step following its key scientific thinking. Total GDP, per capita GDP, primary industrial output value and secondary industrial output value were employed in this study as the indicators to reflect the impacts of PGP on the regional development disparity. Based on the evaluation methods built by researchers, this study firstly analyzed the temporal impacts of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity of the regional development in China during the past 50 years, and then explained the spatial differences at each development stage. The results show that the spatio-temporal disparity in China is highly related to the PGP, and that the marginal contribution rate could be employed as an effective way to quantitatively assess the impact of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity of the regional development.     

Methods to evaluate the impacts of physio- geographical pattern on spatio-temporal disparity of regional development

With the rapid economic development during the last 30 years in China, more and more disparities have emerged among different regions. It has been one of the hot topics in the fields of physical geography and economic geography, and also has been the task for Chinese government to handle. Nevertheless, to quantitatively assess the impacts of physio-geographical patterns (PGP) on the regional development disparity has been ignored for a long time. In this paper, a quantitative method was adopted to assess the marginal ef-fects of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity using the partial determination coefficients. The paper described the construction of the evaluation model step by step following its key scien-tific thinking. Total GDP, per capita GDP, primary industrial output value and secondary in-dustrial output value were employed in this study as the indicators to reflect the impacts of PGP on the regional development disparity. Based on the evaluation methods built by re-searchers, this study firstly analyzed the temporal impacts of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity of the regional development in China during the past 50 years, and then explained the spatial differences at each development stage. The results show that the spatio-temporal disparity in China is highly related to the PGP, and that the marginal contribution rate could be employed as an effective way to quantitatively assess the impact of the PGP on spa-tio-temporal disparity of the regional development.     

Vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ciudad Juárez (Mexico)–El Paso (USA) metropolis: A model for spatial risk assessment in transnational context

The purpose of this paper is to present a geographic information system (GIS)-based method for mapping risk to environmental hazards. Framed by the hazards literature, the method has been developed to specifically overcome issues of data compatibility associated with transnational contexts. The approach is elaborated in reference to a project in which risk was spatially characterized, using a suite of biophysical and social indicators, for the Ciudad Juárez (Mexico)–El Paso (USA) metropolis. Results reveal clear spatial disparities in hazard vulnerability, both within and between the two cities, based on the differential allocation of selected risk factors. The case indicates that future international analyses will be advanced by the clear definition of concepts, the systematic mining of compatible variables, and the selection of valid risk indicators based on criteria that balance the need to incorporate contextual specificity with general comparability.     

旅游经济在辽宁区域经济差异中的作用

通过选取变异系数、基尼系数、锡尔系数等9种测度区域经济差距的指标,对辽宁区域经济差距和扣除旅游收入后的经济差距进行测量与对比,并以此为基础进一步分析旅游经济对辽宁区域经济差距的作用。结果显示,2007年之前旅游经济对于辽宁区域经济差距起到了扩大作用,而2007年之后旅游经济缩小辽宁区域经济差距的功能逐步增强。旅游经济平衡区域经济差距的作用在辽宁还有很大的空间可以挖掘,未来如果辽宁发展战略得当,旅游将会发挥更大的平衡区域经济差距的作用。     

基于ESDA的区域经济空间差异分析——以江苏省为例

基于ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析,利用江苏省1978～2002年县域人均GDP数据,对江苏省县域总体和局部空间差异的变化趋势、特征与成因进行了初步探索。结果首先表明,随着我国改革开放进程的逐步深化,江苏省县域经济空间差异在总体上呈现缩小趋势。其次,江苏省县域局部空间差异不断缩小,特别是苏南和苏北县域,表现出与周边地区同步发展态势。再者,苏南地区对全省的极化效应明显大于其扩散效应。大致自1992年以来,苏南和苏北地区内部分别形成了与周边地区显著相似的区域。最后,江苏省县域总体和局部空间差异的缩小并不是全省区域经济协调发展的标志,而是南北空间分异的表现。在循环累积因果机制作用下,南北差异有可能进一步扩大。     

Racial/ethnic,area socioeconomic,and geographic disparities of cervical cancer survival in Texas

A better understanding about the factors associated with cervical cancer survival disparities is an important step in developing more effective cervical cancer intervention strategies. This study investigates cervical cancer survival disparities from three different perspectives based on data from the Texas Cancer Registry from 1995 to 2005. These perspectives are race/ethnicity, area socioeconomic status (SES), and geographic locations. We examined the role of both individual- and contextual-level factors in cervical cancer survival disparities using a multilevel survival analysis. Individual-level factors included race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, tumor grade, stage at diagnosis, and type of treatment received. Contextual-level factors are census-tract-level variables, including demographic characteristics, health insurance expenditure, behavioral factors, extent of urbanization, and spatial access to primary care physicians. This study reveals that African-Americans had a higher mortality risk (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03–1.38) especially if stage was unknown (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.08–2.75) compared with non-Hispanic whites. Among women diagnosed at regional or distant stage, Hispanics had a survival advantage over their non-Hispanic white counterparts (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.69–0.94). We also identified geographic areas where longer-than-expected or shorter-than-expected cervical cancer survival was statistically significant. Only a small portion of these disparities were explained by individual- and contextual-level factors. This study suggests that Race/Ethnicity, SES, and geography are associated with cervical cancer survival in Texas.     

兰新铁路沿线经济带区域经济差异变动的空间分析

 以人均GDP为测度指标,利用传统统计分析与GeoDa、GIS软件相结合的方法,探讨了2000-2009年兰新铁路沿线经济带区域经济差异的时空格局及空间作用类型。研究表明：兰新铁路沿线经济带县域经济的总体差异呈扩大趋势,县域经济集聚性呈波动衰退趋势,甘肃段内部差异是区域整体差异的主要贡献者。经济发展较高水平县域集中分布在天山北坡地区以及河西地区西段,呈现出区段内集聚的特性;而较低水平县域主要分布在甘肃中部地区、河西地区东段以及青海东部地区,较高增长性县域呈现出向天山南北坡地区集聚的趋势。兰新铁路沿线经济带区域经济发展的空间关联效应较弱,总体呈现西高东低态势,以乌鲁木齐为中心的天山北坡经济带以及天山南坡产业带发展势头良好,而以兰州和西宁为中心的甘肃中部地区和青海东部地区发展相对滞后。     

基于空间场能的中国区域经济发展差异评价

促进区域协调发展是区域发展的重要目标,其基础是准确评价区域经济发展格局与空间差异。空间场能是区域中心城市借助区域联系"通道"带动外围地区发展而产生的"势能差"的抽象表达,是反映区域经济发展格局与空间差异的有效手段。基于空间场能的内涵及表征方法,从省际、市际、县际等尺度探讨了中国宏观经济、三大地带与南北经济差异的时空特征、区域经济变化的空间作用机制以及区域经济格局的类型划分。结果表明:①2000年以来中国区域经济的不平衡性在扩大,但不同研究尺度反映的经济差异大小有所差别;②三大地带的内部经济差异呈显著的"反自然梯度"特征,南北差异由"南北平分秋色"向"南强北弱"演变,南方与北方内部经济发展差异均呈扩大趋势;③中国区域经济增长存在显著的空间极化现象,经济增长局部聚集模式呈现分异性与规律性;④中国区域经济发展水平的空间格局可划分为5大类型区23个亚单元,不同类型区未来应实施针对性的发展策略。     

地理加权回归在区域土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以常州市孟河镇为例

以江苏省常州市新北区孟河镇为研究区,在土地利用格局模拟的回归建模中考虑驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间不稳定性,实现基于地理加权的回归分析模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)的Logistic回归模型进行比较。研究结果表明,运用地理加权回归(GWR)的建模方法,不但可以获得更好的拟合优度和更高的拟合准确率,而且可以获得各驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间分异特征。同时,研究结果也可以为孟河镇及其类似地区的土地利用规划决策提供科学依据。     

中国城市群的竞争力及对区域差异的影响

城市群已成为中国推进新型城镇化的主体形态,但各城市群的发展水平和在区域经济发展中的地位不同。本文引入竞争力这一概念,通过对城市群竞争力概念、内涵和评价方法的回顾,从经济竞争力、人力资源竞争力、基础设施竞争力、国际化竞争力和科技竞争力五个方面构建中国城市群竞争力评价指标体系。研究结果发现中国城市群的竞争力存在着发展水平差异和区域差异。按照综合竞争力和五项一级指标竞争力评价,13个城市群的发展水平可以分为四个层次：第一层次包括长三角、京津唐和珠三角三大城市群,是中国的经济中心和参与国际竞争合作的重要平台;第二层次包括成渝、山东半岛、辽中南、武汉等四个城市群,它们在部分方面的竞争力体现出了一定的优势和潜力,是区域经济的增长极。第三、第四层次城市群的竞争力较为薄弱。本文进一步提出城市群核心竞争力的概念,科创能力、国际化水平、资本集聚度是构成城市群核心竞争力的三大要素,城市群核心竞争力的差异在很大程度上造成了中国三大地带之间的发展差异,且由于先进生产要素分布的高度不均衡,中国区域发展差异的现象还将长期存在。     

安徽省区域经济格局时空演变研究

利用统计分析和探索性空间自相关分析方法(ESDA),在ArcGIS和GeoDA软件的支持下,以县、县级市和设区市市辖区为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,从时间、空间、关联性3个侧面,对1997—2009年安徽省区域经济格局时空演变进行分析,得到以下结论:(1)从时间演变过程来看,安徽省区域经济绝对差异持续扩大,相对差异波动性扩大。(2)从空间演变过程来看,安徽省区域经济发展格局经历了阶段性演化,分别呈现出"条带状"、"串珠状"以及"⊥"字型和"U"字型交织的空间格局。(3)从空间关联性来看,经济发展的整体关联性较弱,表明区域发展的空间相互作用并不显著,近年来,部分发达地区对周边地区的辐射带动效应开始显现,空间关联性有所增强。研究表明:区域经济空间格局除了与自身发展条件、历史基础以及区域空间相互作用有关外,还受到区域发展政策的较大影响。     

长江经济带人口流动对区域经济差异的影响

依据中国第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查的户籍人口和常住人口数据,借助泰尔指数、空间分析、回归建模等方法,分析长江经济带经济差异和人口流动的时空格局,探究人口流动对区域经济差异的影响。结果表明：① 基于户籍人口计算的经济总差异和分解差异均大于基于常住人口计算的差异,户籍口径差异随时间扩大,常住口径差异则随时间缩小;② 长江经济带县域经济差异格局在东、中、西地带呈现不同的中心—外围结构,东部以空间聚合的长三角经济发达县为面状核心区,具有都市连绵带特征,中部和西部则形成多个以中心城市为点状核心区的中心—外围结构;③ 人口流动对流入地和流出地经济增长的影响不同,2000年和2010年流动人口比率的提高均显著促进流入地的经济增长,但在2000年会相对减缓流出地的增长,2010年则相对缓慢地促进流出地的增长,县域经济差异不断扩大;④ 省域和地带因素会干扰人口流动对县域经济差异的解释,在控制了二者的影响之后,人口流动对县域经济差异的扩大程度明显减弱;⑤ 人口流动对区域经济差异的影响最为突出,其次是以工业化水平所体现的经济结构,人力资本、财政分权和区域战略的影响较小;对流出地而言,重视劳动力回流、推进人口家庭化迁移、加快工业化进程,是防止乃至缩小区域经济差异的政策关键。     

中国区域经济差异的时空尺度分析

运用多阶段Theil系数嵌套分解法和小波分析法,从空间尺度和时间尺度两个方面研究中国区域经济差异问题。基本结论是:从省级行政区域单元来看,东部省际之间差异的变化趋势和全国的变化趋势基本是一致的,中部和西部省际之间的差异一直相对较小,而且变化趋势较为缓慢,但是三大地带之间差异一直在增大。从地级行政区域单元来看,省内差异是全国整体差异的重要构成部分,省内差异对于全国整体差异的贡献比三大地带之间差异和省际差异的贡献显著得多。从时间尺度来看,在大时间尺度(譬如24年)水平上,中国区域经济差异的变化过程,基本上服从“倒U型”曲线规律,但是小时间尺度(譬如2³年或2²年)水平上来看,则呈现为一条由几个倒U与U型曲线首尾相接的“复合倒U型曲线”。     

广东省区域发展差异及空间格局演变——兼论3种测度方法的比较

缩小区域发展差异、促进区域协调发展是我国经济发展的紧迫任务。目前,区域差异研究普遍采用人均GDP指标,容易忽视大量流动人口的影响。基于此,构建了一个耦合人口和空间因素的新指标——人.地均GDP。从广东省的实证研究得出,新指标不仅能更客观地描述区域发展差异的动态演变过程,而且能避免地方政府在现有考核指标下容易出现的各类政策偏差。最后,提出区域经济发展战略应以环境承载力为基础,实现人口和空间双协调的政策建议。     

中国区域发展差距格式实证研究

区域发展差距是客观存在的一种空间现象。对于其格式,目前学术界存在2种观点,就是"Williamson假说"和"Amos假说"。文章在以往中国区域发展差距研究的基础上,利用区域发展差距方程式研究了中国区域发展差距格式。实证分析结果表明,在1952～2000年期间,中国区域发展差距符合"Amos假说"的格式。但是,不同时期呈现不同的特征,在1952～1980年期间,其差距符合"Williamson假说"的格式,并在1980～2000年期间,其差距符合"Amos假说"的格式。     

中国土地利用空间格局刻画方法研究

土地利用空间格局研究是土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）理论和实践的基础,对土地利用空间格局进行有效刻画有利于国土资源空间优化,提升土地利用规划和管理水平。由于土地利用空间格局的研究范畴尚不明晰,目前土地利用空间格局的研究对形状、斑块分布和结构等方面关注较少,缺乏对不同土地利用类型间相互关系的研究;同时,格局指标繁多且存在较大的相关性,如何建立指标与土地利用空间格局的对应关系值得进一步研究。本文在深刻理解土地利用空间格局内涵的基础上,将面积、形状和斑块分布总结为土地利用几何特征,将结构和多样性总结为土地利用类型特征,建立了土地利用空间格局刻画指标体系,利用模糊C均值聚类分析,明确了指标与空间格局间的对应关系。结果表明,中国土地利用几何特征可以划分为简单大斑块型、复杂大斑块型、复杂小斑块型、简单小斑块型和散布型五种,不同的几何特征反映了不同土地利用类型的面积、形状和斑块分布的特点,体现了区域土地利用类型的组合关系。2010年中国土地利用共存在61种不同的结构,但主要的结构类型仅有14种,结构特征具有明显的空间聚集性,体现了不同土地利用类型的空间分异性。中国土地利用多样性以3~5类为主,占比达66.69%,其特征总体上呈现“东北、东南高,西北低”的态势。该研究丰富了土地利用空间格局研究的理论体系,填补了中国土地利用整体空间格局刻画的空白。     

区域发展差距测度指标体系探讨

区域发展差距是自然、经济和社会等多种因素共同作用的结果。建立区域发展差距测度指标体系反映了区域发展差距研究从单要素、单指标走向多要素、多指标综合测度的发展趋势。本文在进行区域发展差距概念界定、构成要素类型划分,以及阐述构建区域发展差距测度指标体系遵循的基本原则基础上,通过对区域发展差距构成要素进行甄别、归类和属性特征分析,筛选、构建和设计出了以衡量民生质量为导向的区域发展差距宏观和微观测度指标体系。宏观测度指标体系由3个综合指标、18个要素指标和54个属性指标构成;微观测度指标体系由3个综合指标、14个要素指标和70个属性指标构成。     

Spatiality of regional inequality

Spatial inequality has drawn renewed scholarly interests and societal concerns. This paper reviews the literature on regional inequality, with a focus on spatiality of regional economic/income inequality, to make a timely contribution for a better understanding of the complexity and dynamics of spatial inequality. We find that existing theories disagree over temporal trends and underlying forces of regional inequality, and spatio-temporal models have been favored by economic geographers. It also shows that the research on regional inequality covers all continents of the world, including both developed and developing countries. The scope of research has also been broadened, expanding to household and environmental inequalities. The paper proposes components of spatiality of regional inequality, including scale, location, physical geography, place, space, spatial network, and spatial-temporal models. The paper also proposes areas for future research.     

福建省区域经济发展的时空差异

以福建省9个地（市）为研究的地域单元,从经济发展水平、经济发展速度和产业结构3个侧面,定量分析了1993～2007年福建省区域经济发展的时空差异问题,结果发现：20世纪90年代以来福建省区域经济绝对差异仍呈现持续扩大的趋势,相对差异则维持高位波动状态但呈现缓慢下降趋势;而空间发展格局表现出沿海凸起并呈现闽东南高闽西北低的特征。最后在简要分析影响区域经济时空差异因素的基础上对未来发展趋势进行了探讨。     

Incorporation of multi-scale spatial autocorrelation in soil moisture–landscape modeling

Effects of spatial autocorrelation (SAC), or spatial structure, have often been neglected in the conventional models of pedogeomorphological processes. Based on soil, vegetation, and topographic data collected in a coastal dunefield in western Korea, this research developed three soil moisture–landscape models, each incorporating SAC at fine, broad, and multiple scales, respectively, into a non-spatial ordinary least squares (OLS) model. All of these spatially explicit models showed better performance than the OLS model, as consistently indicated by R², Akaike’s information criterion, and Moran’s I. In particular, the best model was proved to be the one using spatial eigenvector mapping, a technique that accounts for spatial structure at multiple scales simultaneously. After including SAC, predictor variables with greater inherent spatial structure underwent more reduction in their predictive power than those with less structure. This finding implies that the environmental variables pedogeomorphologists have perceived important in the conventional regression modeling may have a reduced predictive power in reality, in cases where they possess a significant amount of SAC. This research demonstrates that accounting for spatial structure not only helps to avoid the violation of statistical assumptions, but also allows a better understanding of dynamic soil hydrological processes occurring at different spatial scales.