Development of an Information and Database System for the IERS: Status and outlook

The focus of this paper is to present the concepts for a new dynamic, i.e. database-driven information system for the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Its goal is to coordinate the data and information flow between the participating institutions. Therefore, all relevant data and products of the IERS should be archived to guarantee their long-term availability. At the same time the consistency and timeliness of the contents of the information system can be guaranteed by managing the information in a database. Additionally, the metadata of all products (including the IERS publications) should be modelled in a database to allow the users to search for specific data or topics with respect to space, time and content. In order to be able to link related data the heterogeneous formats of the products have to be transformed into a common format. The eXtensible Markup Language (XML) is going to be used, to perform this ambitious task. The usage of XML not only allows to link related data but also to easily exchange data and to present them in different ways like Web pages, pdf, etc. The system will be completed by several tools to manage and coordinate the tasks of the Central Bureau (CB) and by an information system with respect to IERS-related topics. The standardised database tools will also allow an easy exchange of information with and links to other databases within the IGGOS project to realize a powerful instrument to serve the Earth observing system.     

A note on the deflection of a baroclinic current by a continental shelf

The deflection, at a step-shelf fronted coast, of a constant potential vorticity current in a reduced-gravity, inviscid model ocean is studied theoretically. The step shelf, with a depth smaller than the reservoir depth, forces the uplifting of the approaching current and causes water column foreshortening, leading to relative vorticity generation that enhances current deflection to the right (facing the coast). As a consequence, in comparison to the case of a vertical wall coast, the proportion of the transport to the right is increased. For normal incidence for a shelf-depth/reservoir-depth ratio of 0.3 and shelf width to deformation radius ratio of 1.5, more than 90% of the approaching current transport goes to the right and less than 10% to the left. In addition, the (barotropic) dynamic pressure at the coast is low to the right and high to the left (with the highest pressure at the stagnation point). In the vertical wall case, the wall pressures on the flank are equal. For oblique incidence from the left, the deflection to the left is drastically reduced. In fact, there is practically no steady-state flow diverted to the left (less than 2%) when the approach angle is greater than 60° to the left of normal. In the vertical wall case, the same angle would have to be 90° for the flow to the left to vanish, namely only when the approach current is parallel to the coast to the right.     

Analysis of change of red tide species in Yodo River estuary by the numerical ecosystem model

Occurrence number of red tides in Osaka Bay in Japan is more than 20 cases every year. Diatom red tide was dominant in Osaka Bay, but the non-diatom red tide was dominant in early 1990s. Therefore, the material cycling in Yodo River estuary in Osaka Bay during August from 1991 to 2000 was analyzed by using the numerical ecosystem model and field observation data to clarify the reasons of change in red tide species. Year-to-year variation in calculated concentration ratio of diatom to non-diatom corresponds to the variation in observed ratio of red tide days of diatom to non-diatom. Limiting nutrient of primary production is phosphate over the period. Diatom dominated from 1991 to 1993, but it was difficult for non-diatom to grow due to the limitation by physical condition. Non-diatom was able to grow because of good physical and nutrient conditions from 1994 to 1996. And diatom dominated again under the good physical condition, and phosphorus supply was not enough for non-diatom to grow from 1998 to 2000. Phosphate concentration in the lower layer of Yodo River estuary was important to the variation in red tide species in the upper layer of Yodo River estuary.     

Susceptibility of fish to Chattonella marina is determined by its tolerance to hypoxia

The harmful alga Chattonella marina has caused massive fish kills and economic losses worldwide. However, the fish kill mechanisms by C. marina have not been identified. The present study has confirmed that a significant elevation of blood osmolality is the universal response in moribund fish exposed to C. marina and the possible reasons leading to contradictory reports were identified. Both osmotic distress and respiratory impairment are important mechanisms leading to fish kill by C. marina. The susceptibility of marine fish to C. marina appears to be inversely related to their tolerance to hypoxia, with the hypoxia intolerant goldlined seabream being the most susceptible, and the hypoxia tolerant green grouper being the most tolerant to C. marina. Further studies in the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) showed that fish susceptibility to C. marina is directly related to susceptibility of the fish to hypoxia, but not related to its tolerance to hypersalinity stress.     

The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam

In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deviation Analysis on Willingness and Behavior of Residents' Earthquake Insurance Purchasing?Based on Logit Model

为真实了解和深入研究居民地震保险购买意愿与行为的背离现象及其形成机制,以全国不同省份居民作为研究对象,开展专项问卷调查,并采用Logit模型进行回归分析,提出提升居民购买地震保险意愿并付诸行动的相关建议。研究结果表明,居民对地震断裂带的判断属于地震风险感知变量,对投保意愿和购买行为均产生显著的正向影响;是否购买其他保险和是否通过网络捐款属于普通风险感知变量,对投保意愿产生显著的正向影响,对购买行为产生正向影响但不显著;地震风险感知变量既可增强居民的投保意愿,又可促使居民付诸实际购买行动;普通风险感知变量虽能增强居民的投保意愿,但对购买行为无效力,使投保意愿和购买行为表现出一定程度的背离。     

Data use and information creation: challenges for marine scientists and for managers

In the coastal waters of European countries and in the offshore waters of the north-east Atlantic, there is an increasing need for scientists to meet challenging objectives, such as to identify meaningful measures of 'quality', and to recommend 'indicators' to underpin implementation of directives, conventions, statutes and other more informal national and international initiatives. Those indicators may relate to particular species or habitats, to changes in physical and chemical characteristics, and even to the use to which the system is put. The problems to be overcome are difficult, but new and developing approaches will make a significant contribution. The approaches include: criteria to identify 'sensitivity' and 'importance', structures to organise information and electronic information resources to access data.The real challenge is to make the results of the various scientific initiatives relevant to and understandable by a wide range of customers with similar overlapping requirements, and thus make a genuine contribution to protecting the marine environment. Above and beyond that is the need for scientists to drive the agenda to enable real and lasting progress to be made towards ecosystem-based management of our seas and a proper consideration of what 'sustainability' may mean in the marine environment and how we utilise its resources.     

一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统

介绍了震前地声的历史记载以及震前地声的产生机制和特征．还有如何利用震前地声观测结果对地震发震的三要素进行预测。并针对震前地声监测所存在的问题、困难和发展趋势,提出了一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统,该系统可详尽、完整地记录震前地声的强度、频度、频谱,并可通过在地震易发区域的大规模密集布点,组成这一区域的震前地声监测网络,以监测大地震孕育过程,以及对大地震的三要素进行预测预报。     

Detecting infiltration and impacts of introduced water using strontium isotopes

Water introduced to surface drainages, such as agricultural and roadway runoff, mine drainage, or coalbed natural gas (CBNG)-produced water, potentially can be of environmental concern. In order to mitigate potential environmental effects, it may be important to be able to trace water discharged to the surface as it infiltrates and interacts with near-surface aquifers. We have chosen to study water withdrawn during CBNG production for isotope tracing in the hyporheic zone because it poses a variety of economic, environmental, and policy issues in the Rocky Mountain states. Ground water quality must be protected as CBNG water is added to semiarid ecosystems. Strontium (Sr) isotopes are effective fingerprints of the aquifer from which water originates. In this study, CBNG water was found to have a higher (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratio than the local alluvial aquifer water. This measurable difference allows the strontium isotope ratio and concentration to be used as tracers of CBNG water following its discharge to the surface. The dissolution and mobilization of salts from soil are an important contributor to ground water quality degradation. In the Powder River basin of Wyoming, the soils are calcium carbonate-buffered systems. The chemical similarity of strontium to calcium allows it to substitute into calcium minerals and enabled us to use strontium isotopes to identify calcium salts mobilized from the soil. Strontium isotopes are an effective monitor of the source of ions and the volume and direction of introduced water flow in the hyporheic zone.     

Review of vibroseis data acquisition and processing for better amplitudes: adjusting the sweep and deconvolving for the time-derivative of the true groundforce

The goal of vibroseis data acquisition and processing is to produce seismic reflection data with a known spatially-invariant wavelet, preferably zero phase, such that any variations in the data can be attributed to variations in geology. In current practice the vibrator control system is designed to make the estimated groundforce equal to the sweep and the resulting particle velocity data are cross-correlated with the sweep. Since the downgoing far-field particle velocity signal is proportional to the time-derivative of the groundforce, it makes more sense to cross-correlate with the time-derivative of the sweep. It also follows that the ideal amplitude spectrum of the groundforce should be inversely proportional to frequency. Because of non-linearities in the vibrator, bending of the baseplate and variable coupling of the baseplate to the ground, the true groundforce is not equal to the pre-determined sweep and varies not only from vibrator point to vibrator point but also from sweep to sweep at each vibrator point. To achieve the goal of a spatially-invariant wavelet, these variations should be removed by signature deconvolution, converting the wavelet to a much shorter zero-phase wavelet but with the same bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio as the original data. This can be done only if the true groundforce is known. The principle may be applied to an array of vibrators by employing pulse coding techniques and separating responses to individual vibrators in the frequency domain. Various approaches to improve the estimate of the true groundforce have been proposed or are under development; current methods are at best approximate.     

A response‐based decoupling criterion for multiply‐supported secondary systems

It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce vibration and pounding in adjacent structures

The dynamic response of tall civil structures due to earthquakes is very important to civil engineers. Structures exposed to earthquakes experience vibrations that are detrimental to their structural components. Structural pounding is an additional problem that occurs when buildings experience earthquake excitation. This phenomena occurs when adjacent structures collide from their out‐of‐phase vibrations. Many energy dissipation devices are presently being used to reduce the system response. Tuned mass dampers (TMD) are commonly used to improve the response of structures. The stiffness and damping properties of the TMD are designed to be a function of the natural frequency of the building to which it is connected. This research involves attaching adjacent structures with a shared tuned mass damper (STMD) to reduce both the structures vibration and probability of pounding. Because the STMD is connected to both buildings, the problem of tuning the STMD stiffness and damping parameters becomes an issue. A design procedure utilizing a performance function is used to obtain the STMD parameters to result in the best overall system response. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于分形特征的剖面分割方法探索

本文针对石油工程中地震剖面图象的分割,采用分形理论进行自相似特性的确定,计算和描述出作为分割依据的盒维数,并据此设计和实现了图象的分割,给出了实例。     

坑（井）-地电阻率成像技术数据处理方法研究

开发坑（井）一地电阻率成像技术数据处理软件包,对分布式地面一坑道电磁信号接收仪记录的时间序列进行分析处理,最终得到相应的视电阻率和相位参数。实际资料处理结果表明,在远区情况下,需考虑信噪比水平,选择合适的计算方法。当信噪比很低或较高时,可选择根据卡尼亚电阻率定义式直接比值的方法,该方法计算简便、效率高;当信噪比一般时,采用最小二乘或Robust等估算方法,能在一定程度上改善数据处理质量。     

Building over faults: A procedure for evaluating risk

This paper examines the risk from fault offset to a building constructed over the surface trace of a fault. An expression relating the magnitude of surface offset to its return period is derived using classical seismic hazard analysis. The risk from fault offset is compared with that due to ground shaking by comparing offsets and MM intensities with equal likelihoods of occurrence. The comparison of risks is useful since it enables risk from fault movement to be related to levels of community acceptance as expressed in building codes for design against ground shaking effects. Relative risk is independent of fault activity rate, but does depend on regional constants, principally those describing the attenuation of MM intensities. For a site over an isolated fault in the Wellington, New Zealand region the risk of damage from fault rupture appears to be about equal to that from ground shaking for buildings with poor earthquake resistance (e.g. unreinforced masonry structures). But for structures designed to have some resistance to ground shaking, the risk due to fault rupture is considerably greater than that due to ground shaking.     

Discussion on the energy partition of volcanic eruption

Energy of volcanic eruption is divided into various ways, such as lava flows, ash production, explosion, ground vibration, air waves and so on. In order to elucidate the cruptive mechanism, energy partition of volcanic eruption in unit time is considered to be a key to solve the problem. In this short paper, partition of eruption energy was calculated for typical three basaltic volcanoes. Ratio of tremor energy to thermal energy is almost the same for both Mihara and Nyragongo in spite of their different eruptive mechanism. Tremor energy was found to be small for Kilauea Volcano compared with the above two volcanoes. This was attributed to the different source mechanism of tremor. Partition of eruption energy was calculated for Also Volcano which showed phreatic explosion in 1958. Kinetic energy is almost ten times of thermal energy. Ratio of energy converted to elastic waves to thermal energy is found to be equivalent to the ratio of energy of elastic waves to the chemical energy in case of explosion of chemical explosives.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

A Basic Water Quality Model for the River Neckar: Part 2 – model‐based analysis of the oxygen budget and scenarios

In this paper the Basic Water Quality Model (BWQM) for the central part of River Neckar is used to analyse the oxygen budget and to assess the potentials of various measures to prevent or mitigate critical dissolved oxygen (DO) declines. It is shown that the oxygen budget is mainly governed by phytoplankton dynamics. The excessive growth of algae and the sudden break down of the resulting algal blooms may cause episodic DO depressions. Therefore, to stabilise the oxygen budget in a sustainable way, eutrophication has to be controlled within the central part of River Neckar and the upstream regions. The only feasible way to reach this goal appears to be a further drastic reduction of phosphorus emissions. In addition, it is indispensable to hold the very high standards of biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium retention at the wastewater treatment plants. A worse performance of the treatment plants would dramatically aggravate critical DO declines which may be caused by algae dynamics. As long as the oxygen budget is not completely stabilised, weir and turbine aeration can be used to mitigate DO depressions. It could be shown that the potentials of these measures suffice to keep DO at a tolerable level. However, due to the long travel times in River Neckar, it is important to start aeration up to several days before the DO minimum is reached.     

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.     

Design of efficient base isolation for hammers and presses

Foundations supporting hammers and presses have to withstand powerful short-period impact loads. When designing these foundations, their vibration amplitudes and the forces transmitted to the supporting piles or soil medium must be reduced to meet serviceability and stability requirements. Mounting systems are often used to achieve this goal. The objectives of this paper are to investigate the efficiency of mounting systems for different foundation configurations and to provide practical guidance for their design. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted and the results were used to establish a set of charts for the design of efficient mounting systems.