2011年5月11-12日广西区域性暴雨诊断分析

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测资料、自动站雨量资料、卫星TBB资料和雷达资料.对2011年5月11-12日广西出现的区域性暴雨进行诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨是在欧亚中高纬地区为两脊一槽的环流背景下产生的.500hPa南支槽、850hPa低涡和地面辐合线是其主要影响系统.水汽从南海输送到广西上空.并在桂西北产生强烈辐合.暴雨发生前广西处于θse高能舌区内,低层暖平流、中高层冷平流加剧大气层结的不稳定.在500hPa南支槽前正涡度平流输送下,桂西北850hPa低涡得到加强,低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直结构,有利于产生强烈的垂直上升运动.强降水与桂西北两个MBCS云团的强烈发展有关,冷云顶在-52℃以下的TBB低值区与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系.涡旋状降水回波的不断新生东北移是导致区域性暴雨发生的原因之一.     

2008年"7·12"广西区域性暴雨天气过程综合分析

对2008年7月12日广西全区性暴雨天气过程成因进行了综合分析,分析表明:500hPa低压环流、850百帕低空切变线和低涡是此次过程的天气尺度系统、中尺度系统是造成暴雨的直接原因。     

2008年台山市"龙舟水"特大暴雨过程分析

从500hPa环流、850hPa环流、地面形势、卫星云图与雷达资料、地形的屏障作用等方面,分析2008年台山市"龙舟水"的特大暴雨过程,试图为今后作"龙舟水"暴雨预报提供参考.     

2011年春季河南久旱转暴雨的环流特征及成因分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP再分析资料,从前期天气背景、大气环流演变及产生持续性强降水的动力、热力和水汽等条件,分析了2008年6月广西出现的一次持续性强降水过程。结果发现：这次持续性强降雨过程期间500hPa环流形势稳定,高空西风小槽呈阶梯状持续下滑影响广西,不断诱发暴雨出现;200hPa广西处于南亚高压东部脊区和高空西风急流出口区右方,风速辐散明显,在高低空急流耦合作用下,华南出现了正反两支垂直环流,广西上空辐合上升运动明显,为强降水的出现提供极好的动力条件;南海季风暴发和副热带高压在华南沿海的稳定维持,使得华南低空形成了印度洋和南海两支水汽通道,为暴雨区上空提供了源源不断的水汽;高温、高湿、高能的热力条件,有利于扰动的形成和对流不稳定能量产生,为广西持续性暴雨提供必要的能量条件。     

开封市短期区域性暴雨分型预报方法

使用1965～1995年开封市历史气象资料，对其中36个区域性暴雨样本进行了分析。以此为基础，依据区域性暴雨日前24h高空(500hPa、700hPa、850hPa)环流形势，将开封市区域性暴雨划分为四型七类。以西风槽型和冷式切变线类区域性暴雨为例，给出了其入型指标和预报指标，并建立了开封市短期区域性暴雨预报模式。     

广西一次持续性强降雨过程成因分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP再分析资料,从前期天气背景、大气环流演变及产生持续性强降雨的动力、热力和水汽等条件,分析了2008年6月广西出现的一次持续性强降雨过程。结果发现：这次持续性强降雨过程期间,500hPa环流形势稳定,高空西风小槽呈阶梯状持续下滑影响广西,不断诱发暴雨出现;200hPa广西处于南亚高压东部脊区和高空西风急流出口区右方,风速辐散明显,在高低空急流耦合作用下,华南出现了正反两支垂直环流,广西上空辐合上升运动明显,为强降雨的出现提供了极好的动力条件;南海季风暴发和副热带高压在华南沿海的稳定维持,使得华南低空形成了印度洋和南海两吏水汽通道,为暴雨区上空提供了源源不断的水汽;高温、高湿、高能的热力条件,有利于扰动的形成和对流不稳定能量产生,为广西持续性暴雨提供了必要的能量条件。     

2008年中国-东盟博览会期间广西暴雨过程分析

利用常规资料、T639分析资料、Fy2C卫星云图资料对2008年中国-东盟博览会期间(10月22～23日)发生的一场区域性暴雨过程进行了综合诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨过程是由于西太平洋副高强,贝加尔湖低涡深,切变线南下增强及江南锋生共同影响造成.这些大尺度环流系统在广西北部表现为一向南向东倾斜的斜压系统,是此次初秋暴雨发生的环流背景.虽然没有大范围的低空急流水汽输送带,但稳定少变的副高边缘及南下增强的低空切变线仍在广西北部形成了高水汽环境和一定的对流不稳定能量,触发了中尺度对流系统活动,从而导致了暴雨过程的发生.     

2008年6月广西持续性暴雨的诊断与数值模拟

用NCEP/NCAR全球逐日再分析格点资料和广西区域日降水资料,对2008年6月12—13日发生在广西的持续性暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,并利用中尺度数值模式WRF进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明:暴雨过程的水汽来源主要为孟加拉湾南部和南海北部;在强降水期间,暴雨区上空低层为较强的大气层结不稳定区,中高层为大气层结相对稳定区,不稳定能量与降水强度有着很好的对应关系;西南急流作为对流系统上升的触发机制,为广西持续性暴雨过程的发生和发展提供了水汽条件和动力条件。WRF模式成功模拟出本次暴雨过程的大尺度环流形势的演变及中尺度降雨分布,本次暴雨与850hPa上一个β中尺度低涡的生成和强烈发展直接关联。     

08．6广西连续暴雨的大尺度环流和物理条件分析

利用常规观测资料、自动站资料和每6h一次的NCEP1×1分析资料,对2008年6月8日。18日广西连续暴雨过程的大尺度环流和物理条件进行了分析。结果表明：副热带高空急流右侧维持强辐散场,500hPa中、低纬广西维持低压槽区,中、高纬东亚大槽和其后部阻塞高压形势维持,贝加尔湖以西宽广的槽区不断有小槽分裂东移,低空西南急流...     

兴安县"06.13"暴雨过程分析

[HT5"SS]利用常规气象资料、卫星云图、雷达产品等资料,从大气环流特征、物理量场、K指数、沙氏指数及降水云团的发展演变等方面对2007年6月13日兴安县的暴雨过程进行分析.结果表明:这次过程.500hPa高原槽加深东移影响本地;700hPa西南低空急流带来强盛的水汽辐合;850hPa低涡切变在兴安站附近生成并维持,同时地面相应位置有静止锋维持.同时有低压倒槽影响.高、中、低空环流形势的良好配合.是6月13日兴安站暴雨产生的真正原因.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.