Lunar and solar barometric tides at Nandi,Fiji

Lunar and solar atmospheric tidal oscillations have been determined with satisfactory accuracy from 17 years 11 months of mean sea-level barometric pressure observations taken at Nandi, Fiji. In many respects, the results are consistent with previous tidal determinations in the south-west Pacific region, although these are few and widely scattered. However, the mean annual amplitude of the lunar tide at Nandi, as determined in this study, 88 b, is much greater than might have been expected from currently available global amplitude maps. Nevertheless, the probable correctness of this result has been confirmed by the analysis of nearly 6 years of similar data from Nausori (130 km E.S.E. of Nandi), which yielded a mean annual lunar amplitude of 88 b, compared with a Nandi amplitude of 83 b for a closely corresponding period.     

地方震及近震地下水同震震后效应研究

同震效应、震后效应是地下水异常变化的显著特征。通过多年预报研究、实践, 依据1982年以来的观测资料, 分析同震效应、震后效应的机理、特征, 提出震后效应的单井、密集、条带、迁移等空间分布, 可对老震区余震、外围区及井位附近牵动性后继地震地点预报有指示意义, 亦可对中期、短期预报及后继地震震型判定提供线索。     

再论MDCB地震监测仪的映震效果

分析了 Ｍ Ｄ Ｃ Ｂ 型地震监测仪在廊坊连续４２ 个月观测期间, 所记录的类地应力值、８ 方位异常值和异常频度等１４ 种电磁波地震前兆异常参数的动态趋势、方向性反映、临震变化与一定范围内一定强度地震的对应关系, 并得出了电磁波前兆异常参数与地震数量关系的初步结果。     

Site effect and damage distribution in Pujili (Ecuador) after the 28 March 1996 earthquake

The 28 March 1996 earthquake (Mw=5.7) produced extensive damage in Pujili, a small town located in the central part of the Inter-Andean valley of Ecuador. Variations in the damage rate of adobe constructions throughout the city let us suppose a ground motion amplification related to site effects. A site effect study using the H/V spectral ratio confirmed the good agreement with geological formations and showed that a second peak in some soil response appears at sites that are located over a zone of alluvial deposits, in the most damaged area of the city. This second peak is in the frequency range 5–7 Hz, close to the natural response of adobe building frequency. Thus, the second peak seems to increase the damage rate of adobe buildings and may be related to superficial alluvial deposits of a river, acting independently of the rest of the soil column.     

月球表面主要矿物反射光谱特性研究

分析了矿物在可见光及近红外区光谱生成的机理,介绍了月球表面最为主要的四种矿物——辉石、斜长石、橄榄石、钛铁矿,并分析了它们各自光谱特征及生成原因,讨论了造成同种矿物光谱差异的原因,给出了它们各自的标志性特征。     

The effect of earthquake duration on the damage of structures

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the effect of duration on the damage of structures subjected to earthquakes. The earthquake excitation is modelled by a non-stationary random process whose response spectrum is probabilistically consistent with a design response spectrum specified independently of the duration. Damage is assumed to accumulate with the cyclic application of large strains in the structural members. Two types of structure are examined: one representative of a steel structure and the other reprsentative of a reinforced concrete structure. The level of expected damage is found to be a strong function of both the ductility of the response and the duration of the excitation. Results are presented for systems with linear stiffness and a particular form of softening behaviour.     

The solar magnetic flux mid-term periodicities and the solar dynamo

We investigate here the fluctuations in the total, open and closed solar magnetic flux (SMF) for the period 1971–1999 by means of the maximum entropy method in the frequency range 5×10⁻⁹–10⁻⁷ Hz (6 yr to 120 days). We use monthly data for the total, open and closed magnetic solar fluxes. Periodicities found in the series are similar showing that there is some relationship between the fluxes. The most important finding of this work is the existence of fluctuations at around 1.3 and 1.7 yr in the SMF with alternating importance during consecutive even and odd solar cycles. These fluctuations are directly related with variations present in cosmic rays, solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity indexes. A quasi-triennial periodicity previously found in sunspots and other solar phenomena is also of importance. The SMF is generated by the action of the solar dynamo; therefore, it is through the magnetic flux that the solar dynamo influences several heliospheric phenomena.     

地震现场震情监视预报工作的回顾及展望

回顾了我国 30多年来的地震现场震情监视预报工作。该工作从目标角度考虑大致可分为二个不同的阶段, 1980年前主要是地震预报方法的探索, 而 1980年以后,更主要的是承担地震预报的社会服务。对我国赴国外地震现场的工作情况作了概述, 并提出了地震现场震情监视预报工作的可能前景。     

我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展

回顾和总结了1966年邢台地震以来我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展,并将其归纳为建立了4个方面的基础,即: 地震预测预报的多学科观测基础;获取了一批中强以上乃至大地震资料的震例基础;建立了经验性预测方法和判据的经验预报基础;初步探索了地震孕育发生的地震预报理论基础。文中还阐述了我国20世纪90年代在长期预报、中期预报、短临预报的预报效能。     

2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1大地震的同震效应

应用有限单元方法,计算了2015年尼泊尔MS8.1大地震发生产生的同震变形和应力变化.计算中考虑地球为球体以确保远场应力场变化得到可靠结果,采用PREM模型的地球分层模型,考虑了中国地震局(CEA)和美国地质调查局(USGS)各自提供的断层滑动模型.结果表明:尼泊尔MS8.1地震是一个比较典型的低角度逆冲地震,水平位移和应力降较大;地震造成南北方向上的水平位移最突出,且集中在首都加德满都附近区域.USGS断层滑动模型地表最大位移量达到3.5m,CEA滑动模型最大为1.2m;东西向和垂直方向上的同震位移相对较小;同震位移量级在0.1m的影响区域可达300km;地震造成尼泊尔地区最大库仑应力变化可达到MPa量级,地震危险性依然较大.此次MS8.1地震对我国西藏地区有一定影响,特别是雅鲁藏布江地区和拉萨块体南北走向的正断层,库仑应力变化为正,量级可达数千帕乃至十余千帕,应该注意该区被诱发中强震的可能性.     

地震时、 空分布均匀度研究探讨

强震在孕育过程中, 在一定的时空范围内多数伴随大量的地震时空集中活动。 在前人研究的基础上, 提出了含义明确、 适用性好的刻画地震时、 空分布均匀程度的定量参数C_t和C_d。 研究了宁夏及邻区的5个M_S≥5.5地震, 以及我国华北的4个M_S≥6.0的地震, 发现震前几个月或1年左右, C_t和C_d值有一明显的异常上升过程, 表明震前地震在时间、 空间分布上有明显的集中过程。     

The third asymptotic distribution of largest magnitudes in the Balkan earthquake provinces

Summary The third asymptotic distribution of the theory of largest values is applied to sixteen earthquake provinces in the Balkan area. The model which assumes an upper magnitude limit fits the observations better than the first distribution. Graphs and tables provide estimates of return periods of largest magnitudes.Communication presented at the XV General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission in Krakow, 22–28 September, 1976.     

地震前兆观测异常信号识别的困难与局限性

地震前兆观测异常信号识别是前兆研究的基础,但是前兆现象的识别始终存有较大争议,从前兆观测系统,环境影响因素,观测量自身物理规律,前兆特征和数据处理方法等方面分析了前兆识别中存在的客观困难和局限性,文中提出了一些观点,希冀通过对存在问题的客观认识,寻求在当前认识水平和条件下地震前兆研究的途径。     

青海玉树地震的天文背景分析

系统地分析了青海玉树地震发生时的天体位置、太阳活动与地球自转等天文因素的影响.从大的长期天文背景来看,玉树地震发生于中国大震频发的月亮白赤交角由极大变到极小时期,并且是太阳活动的偶数周;从短临看,玉树地震正好发生在地球自转与太阳黑子数发生突跳的时期,且此时震中所受的天体引潮力加速度又处于其变化速率最大的极值附近.研究结果表明,这些天文因素对玉树地震的孕育与发生起到了不可忽视的作用,是值得进一步深入研究的.     

辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。     

玉树地震震源区速度结构与余震分布的关系

利用玉树震区21个应急流动地震台站和青海省地震台网固定地震台站的观测数据,采用双差层析成像方法,对2010年4月14日至6月15期间发生的地震进行了重定位,并反演得到了玉树地震震源区的三维速度结构.重定位结果揭示余震主要沿NW向成窄带状分布在断层的两侧,表明脆性破裂应力释放主要集中于一个狭窄的区域内.在西北端,余震偏离玉树—甘孜断裂分布,在SW向也有分布,推测可能与南西向次级断裂有关.双差层析成像得到的速度结构在浅部与地表地质构造相一致,中上地壳的速度结构显示巴颜喀拉地块为高速异常,羌塘地块为低速异常.玉树地震余震分布与特定的速度结构存在相关性：主震发生在高低速过渡带偏高速体的一侧,余震主要分布在高速体外围,高速体内部几乎没有余震分布.一般说来,中上地壳的高速体通常具有较高的强度,可以积累较强的孕震能量.主震发生后,高速体内积累的弹性能量向周边释放,可能是导致高速体周边余震发生的主要原因.     

浅谈多角度偏振遥感技术及其在探测月球资源中的应用

在反射、散射和透射电磁辐射的过程中,地表或大气中的目标地物将产生与它们自身性质相关的偏振特性.多角度偏振探测技术就是利用物质的这种偏振特性,对目标地物进行全方位、多角度的观测,是当前遥感识别目标地物的一种新手段,目前在我国还处于基础性试验研究阶段.本文从多角度偏振技术的物理机理出发,阐述了该种技术在当前“月球探测热”中的应用设想,表明在当前“重返月球”计划中多角度偏振探测技术应用的可行性.最后讨论了今后多角度偏振技术的应用与发展.     

Behavior of large fill dams during earthquake and earthquake damage

This paper describes the behavior of and damage to large fill dams during earthquakes. Although fill dams have been constructed since olden times, there are only records of recent earthquake damage. We analyzed the behavior of fill dams of at least 15 m in height during earthquakes, and investigated the damage to the fill dams. The fact that fill dams that are designed and constructed based on the modern design standards have never been failed but have been only slightly affected by past earthquakes in Japan and other nations suggests that such large fill dams are highly earthquake resistant. The modern conventional design methods (soil engineering control of the bank soil, method for evaluating slip safety, and evaluation method of the foundation ground) are thus fully adequate for determining earthquake resistance.     

福建地区地倾斜中短期前兆异常识别及映震效果初探

对福建地区10年来的倾斜资料，统一用调和分析、差分分析、卡尔曼滤波和最大相关系数方法进行系统处理，提取异常信息，统计分析它们与该地区MS5级以上地震的关系，并对这几种方法进行评价。结果是：地倾斜固体潮M2波γ因子异常与地震的对应率为46％(P=54％)，差分分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为23％(P=42％)，卡尔曼滤波方法识别的异常与地震的对应率为30％(P=34％)，最大相关系数分析方法识别的异常与地震对应率为19％(P=37％)。     

汶川MS8.0级地震余震分布及周边区域P波三维速度结构研究

利用川滇地区长期积累的地震走时观测资料和汶川地震余震观测资料对汶川地震震源区及周边区域地壳和上地幔P波三维速度结构进行了研究.结果表明,浅部P波速度分布与地表地质之间具有很好的对应关系.龙门山断裂带在20 km以上深度表现为高速异常带,彭灌杂岩体和宝兴杂岩体为局部高速异常区.龙门山断裂带中上地壳的局部高速异常体对汶川地震的余震分布具有明显的控制作用.在余震带南端,余震全部发生在与宝兴杂岩体对应的高速异常体的东北侧;在余震带的中段,与彭灌杂岩体对应的高速异常体在一定程度上控制了余震的分布;在余震带的东北端,宁强-勉县一带的高速异常体可能阻止了余震进一步向东北扩展.龙门山断裂带中上地壳的P波高速异常表明介质具有相对较高的强度,在青藏高原物质向东挤出过程中起到了较强的阻挡作用,有利于深部能量积累.在30 km深度之下,扬子地块具有明显的高速特征,其前缘随深度增加向青藏高原方向扩展,在下地壳和上地幔顶部已达到龙门山断裂带以西.