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1.
Recent projections of global climate change necessitate improved methodologies that quantify shoreline variability. Updated analyses of shoreline movement provide important information that can aid and inform likely intervention policies. This paper uses the Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR) technique to evaluate shoreline change trends over the time period 1856 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on recent rates of change, during the 1994 to 2015 period of active storm conditions. Small segments, on the order of tens of kilometers, along two sandy barrier island regions on Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts were chosen for this study. The overall average rate of change over the 159-year period along Little St. George Island was ??0.62?±?0.12 m/year, with approximately 65% of shoreline segments eroding and 35% advancing. During periods of storm clustering (1994–2015), retreat rates along portions of this Gulf coast barrier accelerated to ??5.49?±?1.4 m/year. Along the northern portion of Merritt Island on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the overall mean rate of change was 0.22?±?0.08 m/year, indicative of a shoreline in a state of relative dynamic equilibrium. In direct contrast with the Gulf coast shoreline segment, the majority of transects (65%) evaluated along the oceanfront of Merritt Island over the long term displayed a seaward advance. Results indicate that episodes of clustered storm activity with fairly quick return intervals generally produce dramatic morphological alteration of the coast and can delay natural beach recovery. Additionally, the data show that tidal inlet dynamics, shoreline orientation, along with engineering projects, act over a variety of spatial and temporal scales to influence shoreline evolution. Further, the trends of shoreline movement observed in this study indicate that nearshore bathymetry—the presence of shoals—wields some influence on the behavior of local segments of the shoreline.  相似文献   

2.
The present study investigates the impact of wave energy and littoral current on shorelines along the south-west coast of Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu, India. The multi-temporal Landsat TM, ETM+ images acquired from 1999 to 2011 were used to demarcate the rate of shoreline shift using GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System. The statistical analysis such as net shoreline movement and end point rate were determined from the multi-temporal shoreline layers. Moreover, the wave energy and seasonal littoral current velocity were calculated for each coastal zone using mathematical equations. The results reveal that the coastal zones, which include Kanyakumari, Kovalam, Manavalakurichi and Thengapattinam coasts, consisting of maximum wave energy along with high velocity of littoral current, have faced continuous erosion processes. The estimated wave energy along these zones ranges from 6.5 to 8.5 kJ/km2 and the observed current velocity varies from 0.22 to 0.32 m/s during south-west and north-east monsoons. The cumulative effect of these coastal processes in the study area leads to severe erosion that is estimated as 300.63, 69.92, 54.12 and 66.11 m, respectively. However, the coastal zones, namely Rajakkamangalam, Ganapathipuram, Muttam and Colachel, have experienced sediment deposits due to current movement during the north-east monsoon. However, the trend changes during the south-west monsoon as a result of sediment drift through backwash. The spatial variation of shoreline and its impact on wave energy and the littoral current have been mapped using the geo-spatial technology. This study envisages the impact of coastal processes on site-specific shorelines. Hence, the study will be effective for sustainable coastal zone management.  相似文献   

3.
Trends of shoreline changes need a scientific study as erosion affects the coastal ecosystem and environment. This study focuses on the trends of shoreline changes along the Van Island, Gulf of Mannar, during the period from 2000 to 2016 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System model of a tool in Arc Map. Shorelines were extracted from the Landsat OLI and ETM+ satellite data from the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 and short-term changes obtained by TSS with the help of GPS. The rates of changes were calculated by the standard method of end point rate based on 157 transects lines and baseline. The average value of EPR observed was ?5.03 m/year during the study period. Statistics of EPR further calculated the average long-time intervals during the period of 15 years and also short-term changes. It is noted that the study area of Van Island’s degradation is very rapid. The analysis shows that the surveyed years from 2015 to 2016 record the highest erosion and retreat of shoreline changes in December 2014 to May2015 than in May2015 to December 2015. Based on the predicted EPR value of ?125 m/year of erosion in the next 25 years, it is concluded that the Van Island will vanish.  相似文献   

4.
Densely populated coastal zones of India are highly exposed to natural environment. These are impacted by episodic natural events, continuous coastal process, gradually rising sea levels and coexisting human interventions. The present study is an attempt to assess the implication of the sea level rise and coastal slope in the coastal erosion for entire mainland of India. In this regard, two methods were employed to estimate the shoreline change rate (SCR): (1) satellite-derived SCR using the Landsat TM and ETM+ acquired during 1989–2001 and (2) SCR derived by Bruun Rule using the parameters coastal slope and sea level trend derived from satellite altimetry. Satellite-derived SCR has been compared with the shoreline change estimated based on Bruun Rule, revealing a better agreement with each other in terms of trend. Peaks of shoreline retreat calculated using Bruun model and satellite-observed SCR offset by 25–50 km. Offset in these peaks was observed due to net drift towards north in the east coast and south in the west coast of India, revealing the applicability of the Bruun Rule along the Indian coast. The present study demonstrates that coastal slope is an additional parameter responsible for the movement of shoreline along with sea level change. The results of satellite-derived SCR reveal the highest percentage of erosion along West Bengal coast with 70% followed by Kerala (65%), Gujarat (60%) and Odisha (50%). The coastlines of remaining states recorded less than 50% of coasts under erosion. Results of this study are proving critical inputs for the coastal management.  相似文献   

5.
In the absence of a generic approach to study shoreline changes, this research focus on the development of a generic methodology to detect, measure, analyze, and predict shoreline changes to manage coastal environment. The unique strength of this approach is that it incorporates image processing techniques, remotely sensed derived data into a GIS to analyze measure, and predict and visualize shoreline changes. It is independent from the study region or the remote sensing data. This methodology uses Speeded Up Robust Feature to detect the study regions from satellite images automatically. Also, it proposes a model of shoreline using the Canny edge detector on Normalized Difference Water Index image. To measure the changes, Digital Shoreline Analysis System extension of ArcGIS was used and the End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) approaches were used on the modeled shoreline. The EPR is calculated by dividing the distance of shoreline movement by the time elapsed between the oldest and the most recent shoreline. A LRR statistic can be determined by fitting a least-squares regression line to all shoreline points for a particular transect. Three regions of the island of Djerba in Tunisia were selected for this study; Rass Errmall, El Kastil, and Aghir. Accretions as well as erosion processes were observed in the study areas between 1984 and 2009. The average of the erosion was around ?6.95 m/year in Aghir. The average of erosion is around ?4.09 m/year and accretion trend is around +11.7 m/year in Rass Errmall. El Kastil was under a remarkable accretion with 21.14 m/year during the same period.  相似文献   

6.
Coastal shoreline hardening is intensifying due to human population growth and sea level rise. Prior studies have emphasized shoreline-hardening effects on faunal abundance and diversity; few have examined effects on faunal biomass and size structure or described effects specific to different functional groups. We evaluated the biomass and size structure of mobile fish and crustacean assemblages within two nearshore zones (waters extending 3 and 16 m from shore) adjacent to natural (native wetland; beach) and hardened (bulkhead; riprap) shorelines. Within 3 m from shore, the total fish/crustacean biomass was greatest at hardened shorelines, driven by greater water depth that facilitated access to planktivore (e.g., bay anchovy) and benthivore-piscivore (e.g., white perch) species. Small-bodied littoral-demersal species (e.g., Fundulus spp.) had greatest biomass at wetlands. By contrast, total biomass was comparable among shoreline types within 16 m from shore, suggesting the effect of shoreline hardening on fish biomass is largely within extreme nearshore areas immediately at the land/water interface. Shoreline type utilization was mediated by body size across all functional groups: small individuals (≤60 mm) were most abundant at wetlands and beaches, while large individuals (>100 mm) were most abundant at hardened shorelines. Taxonomic diversity analysis indicated natural shoreline types had more diverse assemblages, especially within 3 m from shore, although relationships with shoreline type were weak and sensitive to the inclusion/exclusion of crustaceans. Our study illustrates how shoreline hardening effects on fish/crustacean assemblages are mediated by functional group, body size, and distance from shore, with important applications for management.  相似文献   

7.
Mapping the occurrence and thickness of layers within a soil profile is a prerequisite for soil characterization. The objective of this paper is to compare the applicability of two statistical methods—discriminant analysis (DA) and logistic regression (LR)—used to calculate the thickness of Quaternary sediments in a formal way and to identify parameters controlling the occurrence of these sediments. The investigations were carried out in southern Bavaria in an area of about 150 ha presenting a large variability in relief and parent material (Tertiary material, Pleistocene loess, colluvial/alluvial sediments). Comparisons between the two statistical methods were carried out with a training dataset and an evaluation dataset. The results show that DA was preferable under the assumptions of normality and equal variance/covariance matrices. The analyses produced models with 80 % and 79 % correctly reclassified assignments and a canonical correlation coefficient of approximately 0.60. From the simulations, it was found (i) that the determining predictors were altitude, slope, and upslope catchment area (partly expressed as topographical wetness index), SAGA wetness index and specific catchment area; and (ii) that a disadvantage of LR was that trial and error was frequently necessary to find the optimal composition of variables. In this study, a hierarchical combination of binary and ordinal LR was used and revealed (iii) that when the probabilities in LR between adjacent categories were similar, the possibility of incorrect calculations increased and (iv) that visual inspections as well as RMSE showed that DA with weighted depths (5 cm-stepwise DA) provided the best prediction accuracy. This information can help improve soil surveys and the predictability of the spatial heterogeneity in landscapes.  相似文献   

8.
One of the most effective means of monitoring the cumulative effects of natural processes and human activities on the shoreline is to study the patterns of shoreline change over time. An attempt has been made to study the shoreline changes along Al Batinah, Sultanate of Oman, at the outlet of Wadi Al Hawasnah. The previous studies showed that Al Batinah coastline is generally stable except where coastal engineering structures like harbors, corniches, ports, and recharge dams are present. Remote sensing and GIS techniques are widely used in the coastal geomorphology because they provide the best sources to study the long-term shoreline changes. Rapid shoreline changes at the mouth of Wadi Al Hawasnah have been measured using proxy data derived mainly from satellite images from 2000 to 2005. The mouth of Wadi Al Hawasnah is now completely blocked after the construction of recharge dam at the upper stream of Wadi Al Hawasnah and Wadi Bani Umar in 1995. There has been no discharge to the sea after the construction of the dam. Furthermore, beach profiles of this area show erosion close to the south of the tidal inlet and accretion further south. The shorelines in the northwest of the tidal inlet remained stable.  相似文献   

9.
Living shorelines are a shoreline stabilization strategy encompassing a range of vegetative to structural materials and serve as an alternative approach to the use of structures like bulkheads, which are known to aggravate erosion. Living shorelines are often installed with little to no long-term monitoring for effectiveness; specifically, there is a lack of quantitative data regarding their performance as a shoreline stabilization strategy. This study sought to assess the performance of living shorelines with sills, with respect to shoreline protection, by determining shoreline change rates (SCR) using geospatial analysis. Shoreline surveys were conducted using a real-time kinematic (RTK)-GPS unit at a total of 17 living shoreline projects and nine control segments at 12 sites along the coast of North Carolina. Current shoreline position was compared to historic (pre-installation) shoreline positions obtained from aerial imagery, dating to 1993. The average SCR among northern sites before installation was ??0.45?±?0.49 m year?1, and in southern sites, it was ??0.21?±?0.52 m year?1. After installation, average SCR was significantly less erosive at northern and southern sites with living shorelines, 0.17?±?0.47 and ??0.01?±?0.51 m year?1, respectively. Of the 17 living shoreline project segments, 12 exhibited a reduction in the rate of erosion; of those 12, six were observed to be accreting. This study supports the convention that living shorelines can reduce the rate of erosion and potentially restore lost shore zone habitat.  相似文献   

10.
Many shoreline studies rely on historical change rates determined from aerial imagery decades to over 50 years apart to predict shoreline position and determine setback distances for coastal structures. These studies may not illustrate the coastal impacts of short-duration but potentially high-impact storm events. In this study, shoreline change rates (SCRs) are quantified at five different sites ranging from marsh to sediment bank shorelines around the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) for a series of historical (decadal to 50-year) and short-term (bimonthly) time periods as well as for individual storm events. Long-term (historical) SCRs of approximately ?0.5 ± 0.07 m year?1 are observed, consistent with previous work along estuarine shorelines in North Carolina. Short-term SCRs are highly variable, both spatially and temporally, and ranged from 15.8 ± 7.5 to ?19.3 ± 11.5 m year?1 at one of the study sites. The influence of wave climate on the spatial and temporal variability of short-term erosion rates is investigated using meteorological observations and coupled hydrodynamic (Delft3D) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are applied to simulate hourly variability in the surface waves and water levels. The results indicate that in the fetch-limited APES, wind direction strongly influences the wave climate at the study sites. The wave height also has an influence on short-term SCRs as determined from the wave simulations for individual meteorological events, but no statistical correlation is found for wave height and SCRs over the long term. Despite the significantly higher rates of shoreline erosion over short time periods and from individual events like hurricanes, the cumulative impact over long time periods is low. Therefore, while the short-term response of these shorelines to episodic forcing should be taken into account in management plans, the long-term trends commonly used in ocean shoreline management can also be used to determine erosion setbacks on estuarine shorelines.  相似文献   

11.
Depositional facies have been hypothesized to be linked to sequence stratigraphic positions. Also, shoreline systems are built by mixed processes, including rivers, storms, fair-weather waves and tides. Resolving the complexity of shoreline deposition requires detailed quantitative facies analysis with particular attention to heterolithic successions. In this study, 71 sections in a 130 km long outcrop belt of the Cretaceous Gallup Formation in the north-west of the San Juan Basin were measured. Five major facies associations were identified using sedimentological and iconological interpretations, including offshore shelf, non-deltaic shoreline sandstones, deltas, coastal bayline and fluvial. Each facies association also comprises subordinate facies. Depositional facies interpretations are placed in a high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework that allows for reconstructions of the palaeogeography of individual parasequence sets that demonstrate temporal and spatial evolution of facies associations and depositional processes. The results show that the Gallup is a mixed-process-controlled depositional system with fair-weather and storm-wave dominance, river influence and tide-effect, contrasting with previous interpretations of a solely fair-weather wave-dominated environment. Depositional processes and the resultant facies change with sequence stratigraphic positions in response to relative sea-level changes – particular facies are only deposited in certain systems tracts. Distinction and transition between non-deltaic shorefaces and wave-dominated deltas have also been documented in this study. Non-deltaic shorefaces are characterized by homogeneous sandstones with a wide-range bioturbation index and the absence of mudstones. Wave-dominated deltas are subject to river influence and contain prodelta facies. This study shows the importance of detailed facies analysis with high-resolution sequence stratigraphic control using outcrops for documenting sedimentary processes of shallow marine shoreline systems.  相似文献   

12.
The nearshore land-water interface is an important ecological zone that faces anthropogenic pressure from development in coastal regions throughout the world. Coastal waters and estuaries like Chesapeake Bay receive and process land discharges loaded with anthropogenic nutrients and other pollutants that cause eutrophication, hypoxia, and other damage to shallow-water ecosystems. In addition, shorelines are increasingly armored with bulkhead (seawall), riprap, and other structures to protect human infrastructure against the threats of sea-level rise, storm surge, and erosion. Armoring can further influence estuarine and nearshore marine ecosystem functions by degrading water quality, spreading invasive species, and destroying ecologically valuable habitat. These detrimental effects on ecosystem function have ramifications for ecologically and economically important flora and fauna. This special issue of Estuaries and Coasts explores the interacting effects of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems. The majority of papers focus on the Chesapeake Bay region, USA, where 50 major tributaries and an extensive watershed (~ 167,000 km2), provide an ideal model to examine the impacts of human activities at scales ranging from the local shoreline to the entire watershed. The papers consider the influence of watershed land use and natural versus armored shorelines on ecosystem properties and processes as well as on key natural resources.  相似文献   

13.
One of the most important aspects of coastal zone management is the analysis of shoreline dynamics. Over the last years, beaches of the Ravenna coast (NE Italy) experienced large modifications, in some places narrowing or even being completely lost, thus threatening tourism, coastal assets and nature. Coastal erosion has direct consequences for Ravenna tourist-based economy, which largely depends on the attraction provided by sandy beaches. In this study, long-term (>?50 years) coastal analysis was used to identify the sectors along the coast where the shoreline position has changed, either advancing or retreating. Shoreline changes were measured on GIS environment by means of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) extension. Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) strategies were employed to examine shoreline variability and reveal erosional/accretional trends. The results show that significant shoreline changes affected the entire coastal region, with most of the study area under retreat, mainly in the most valuable tourist assets of the littoral. The effects were found to be worsened by impacts of land subsidence, presence of harbor infrastructure and deficit in sediment budget. A simple shoreline classification was performed over the DSAS results and cross-checked with local knowledge of the area. The measurement of erosion or accretion rates in each studied segment is found to be useful for land use planning and coastal management plans, especially regarding the prediction of future shoreline positions. Especially important is the potential of the classification to identify areas of significant position change, with current and future implications for the design of sustainable shoreline management and mitigation measures.  相似文献   

14.
Barrier islands are found around the world and are important environmentally and economically. With accelerated sea level rise and relentless storms, their evolution is complex but important to understand, especially from a coastal planning and managing perspective. In this study, shoreline change estimates from aerial photography (1949, 1974, 2006), sedimentological and stratigraphic investigation, and analysis of geomorphic character were used to evaluate the hurricane response and decadal evolution of Ocracoke Island, NC. Between 1949 and 2006, the majority (>?65% of transects) of the entire island eroded at an average rate of ??0.54 m/year. Cross-island width decreased by as much as 40% (180 m) over the period. Hurricane Isabel (2003) represented up to 23% of the long-term net change in some regions of the island. The rate of narrowing of Ocracoke Island appears to have increased in the last half century and is due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Isabel overwashed a total of 9% of the island based on aerial photographic analysis with an average deposit thickness of 0.24 m based on trench investigation. Assessment with the Storm Impact Scale showed a direct relationship between overwash and the pre-existing dune conditions, which had been affected by long-term erosion. Sedimentological signatures interpreted from cores show up to four distinct stacked overwash deposits, potentially dating back as far as 1944. This multi-pronged analysis shows the complexity of barrier island evolution and highlights the necessity to examine and model a system response in four dimensions (i.e., spatially and with time).  相似文献   

15.
Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) provides many important ecosystem functions, but SAV has been significantly reduced in many estuaries. We used spatial–statistical models to identify estuarine shoreline characteristics that explain variations in SAV abundance among subestuaries of the Chesapeake Bay and mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays. We summarized digital spatial data on shoreline construction, shoreline land use, physical characteristics, watershed land cover, and salinity for each subestuary. We related SAV abundance to shoreline characteristics and other stressors using univariate regression and multivariate models. The strongest univariate predictors of SAV abundance were percent shoreline forest, percent shoreline marsh, the percentage of shoreline that is 5–10 m tall, percent riprap, the percentage of subestuary area <2 m deep, percent herbaceous wetland, and percent shrubland. Shoreline marsh, bulkhead, and shoreline forest had different effects on SAV in different salinity zones. Percent riprap shoreline was the most important variable in a regression tree analysis of all the subestuaries, and percent deciduous forest in the watershed was the most important variable in a separate regression tree analysis on the mesohaline subestuaries. Subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap followed a significantly different temporal trajectory than those with >5.4 % riprap. SAV abundance has increased steadily since 1984 in subestuaries with <5.4 % riprap, but has not increased since 1996–1997 in subestuaries with >5.4 % riprap. Some shoreline characteristics interact with larger-scale factors like land cover and salinity zone to affect the distribution of SAV, while the effects of other shoreline characteristics are consistent among subestuaries with different salinities or local watershed land covers. Many shoreline characteristics can be controlled by management decisions, and our results help identify factors that managers should consider in efforts to increase SAV abundance.  相似文献   

16.
In many coastal regions throughout the world, there is increasing pressure to harden shorelines to protect human infrastructures against sea level rise, storm surge, and erosion. This study examines waterbird community integrity in relation to shoreline hardening and land use characteristics at three geospatial scales: (1) the shoreline scale characterized by seven shoreline types: bulkhead, riprap, developed, natural marsh, Phragmites-dominated marsh, sandy beach, and forest; (2) the local subestuary landscape scale including land up to 500 m inland of the shoreline; and (3) the watershed scale >500 m from the shoreline. From 2010 to 2014, we conducted waterbird surveys along the shoreline and open water within 21 subestuaries throughout the Chesapeake Bay during two seasons to encompass post-breeding shorebirds and colonial waterbirds in late summer and migrating and wintering waterfowl in late fall. We employed an Index of Waterbird Community Integrity (IWCI) derived from mean abundance of individual waterbird species and scores of six key species attributes describing each species’ sensitivity to human disturbance, and then used this index to characterize communities in each subestuary and season. IWCI scores ranged from 14.3 to 19.7. Multivariate regression model selection showed that the local shoreline scale had the strongest influence on IWCI scores. At this scale, percent coverage of bulkhead and Phragmites along shorelines were the strongest predictors of IWCI, both with negative relationships. Recursive partitioning revealed that when subestuary shoreline coverage exceeded thresholds of approximately 5% Phragmites or 8% bulkhead, IWCI scores decreased. Our results indicate that development at the shoreline scale has an important effect on waterbird community integrity, and that shoreline hardening and invasive Phragmites each have a negative effect on waterbirds using subestuarine systems.  相似文献   

17.
Aerial photographs, recording 12 positions of the shoreline and vegetation line over a 50-yr period, were used to investigate long-term ecotone displacement trends and the relationship between ecotone displacement and shoreline migration on Hog Island, Virginia. A robust regression modeling technique, originally developed for shoreline trend detection analyses, enabled examination of the direction, magnitude, and timing of changes in long-term ecotone displacement. Measurements were obtained at 277 shore normal transects spaced 50 m apart. The results show that long-term trends in ecotone displacement and shoreline movement are nonlinear for over three-fourths of the Hog Island coast. On average, the shoreline and vegetation line experienced reversals in 1972 and 1974, respectively. Rarely did the ecotones and shorelines move in tandem or synchronously. Concavity tests indicate that most of the shoreline and ecotone are currently moving seaward and the distance between the shoreline and vegetation line is decreasing through time. Evidence exists for a decennial time lag between the reversal of the shoreline and the ecotone and vice versa. The ecotone and shoreline trends apparently correspond to tidal inlet dynamics, individual storm events, storm climate, inherited topography (e.g., dune), and vegetation type.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper, an automated method for retrieval of snow surface temperature (SST) in Beas River Basin, India, using Landsat-8 thermal data is proposed. Digital number (DN) values of thermal data were converted into Top of Atmospheric (TOA) radiance. Surface radiance has been estimated from TOA radiance using a single channel method. The estimated surface radiance was then converted into SST. Cloud free Landsat-8 data for January and February 2017 has been used to estimate SST. Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) has established a wireless sensor network (WSN) in an avalanche prone slope in Beas River Basin, India. Landsat-8 retrieved SST has been compared and validated with recorded SST at WSN stations. The retrieved SST using proposed algorithm was in good agreement with SST recorded on ground by sensor network. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) between estimated and recorded SST has been observed as ~?1.1 K and ~?1.5 K for 23 January 2017 and ~?0.7 and ~?1.6 K for 24 February 2017. Algorithm has shown a potential for automated mapping of snow and ice surface temperature using Landsat-8 data for snow cover and glaciers in Himalaya.  相似文献   

19.
The present study attempts to model the spatial variability of three groundwater qualitative parameters in Guilan Province, northern Iran, using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Data collected from 140 observation wells for the years 2002–2014 were used. Five variables, X and Y coordinates of the observation well, distance of the observation well from the shoreline, areal average 6-month rainfall depth, and groundwater level at the day of water quality sampling, were considered as primary input variables. In addition, nine qualitative variables were also considered as auxiliary input variables. Electrical conductivity (EC), sodium concentration (Na+), and sulfate concentration (SO4 2?) of the groundwater in the region were estimated using ANNs and SVMs with different input combinations. The results showed that both ANNs and SVMs work well when the only primary input variable is the well location. The ANN yielded an RMSE of 1.03 mEq/l for SO4 2?, 1.05 mEq/l for Na+, and 203.17 μS/cm for EC, using the X and Y coordinates of the observation wells in the study area. In the case of SVM, these values were, respectively, 0.87, 0.87, and 176.68. Considering the auxiliary input variables (pH, EC, and the concentrations of Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl?, SO4 2?, and HCO3 ?) resulted in a significant decrease in the RMSE of both ANNs (0.22, 0.30, and 33.04) and SVMs (0.26, 0.34, and 36.23). Comparing these RMSE values with those of cokriging interpolation technique (0.59, 0.98, and 177.59) indicated that ANNs and SVMs produced more accurate estimates of the three qualitative parameters. The relative importance of auxiliary input variables was also determined using Gamma test. The output uncertainty of ANNs and SVMs were determined using p-factor and d-factor. The results showed that SVMs have less uncertainty than ANNs.  相似文献   

20.
Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important pathway for groundwater and associated chemicals to discharge to the sea. Groundwater levels monitored along a transect perpendicular to the shoreline are used to calculate SGD flux from the nearshore aquifer to Tolo Harbor, Hong Kong (China). The calculated SGD flux—recharge/discharge measured with Darcy’s Law methods—agrees well with estimates based on geo-tracer techniques and seepage meter in Tolo Harbor during previous studies. The estimated freshwater SGD is 1.69–2.0 m2/d at the study site and 0.3?±?0.04 cm/d for the whole of Tolo Harbor, which is comparable to the river discharge (0.25?±?0.07 cm/d) and precipitation (0.45?±?0.15 cm/d). The tide-driven SGD in the intertidal zone is 13.98–17.59 m2/d at the study site and 2.42?±?0.56 cm/d for the whole of Tolo Harbor. The SGD occurring in the subtidal zone and the bottom of Tolo Harbor is 3.12?±?4.63 cm/d. Fresh SGD accounts for ~5% of the total SGD, while the rest (~95%) is contributed by saline SGD driven by various forces. About 96% of the tide-driven SGD in the intertidal zone occurs in the ebbing tide period because the head difference between the groundwater level and sea level is great during this period. Tide-driven SGD in the spring tide is ~1.2 times that during neap tide. The tidal fluctuation amplitude and tide-driven SGD in the intertidal zone are positively correlated to each other; thus, a spring neap variation of the tide-driven SGD is observed.  相似文献   

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