Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.     

Tall clouds from small eruptions: the sensitivity of eruption height and fine ash content to tropospheric instability

A critical factor in successfully monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash dispersion for aviation safety is the height reached by eruption clouds, which is affected by environmental factors, such as wind shear and atmospheric instability. Following earlier work using the Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model for strong Plinian eruptions, this study considered a range of eruption strengths in different atmospheres. The results suggest that relatively weak volcanic eruptions in the moist tropics can trigger deep convection that transports volcanic material to 15–20 km. For the same volcanic strength there can be ~9 km difference between eruption heights in moist tropical and dry subpolar environments (a larger height difference than previously suggested), which appears consistent with observations. These results suggest that eruption intensity should not be estimated from eruption height alone for tropospheric eruptions and also that the average height of volcanic eruptions may increase if the tropical atmospheric belt widens in a changing climate. Ash aggregation is promoted by hydrometeors (particularly liquid water), so the smaller modelled eruptions in moist atmospheres, which have a relatively small ash content for their height and water content, result in a relatively small proportion of fine ash in the dispersing cloud when compared to a dry atmosphere. This in turn makes the ash clouds much more difficult to detect using remote sensing than those in dry atmospheres. Overall, a weak eruption in the tropics is more likely to produce a plume above cruising levels for civil aviation, harder to detect and track, but with a lower concentration of fine ash than a mid-latitude or polar equivalent. There is currently no defined ‘acceptable’ concentration of ash for aircraft, but as these results suggest low-grade encounters in the tropics from undetected clouds are likely, it would be desirable to explore that issue.     

Dispersion modeling of volcanic ash clouds: North Pacific eruptions, the past 40?years: 1970–2010

Over the last 40 years, there have been numerous volcanic eruptions across the North Pacific (NOPAC) region that posed a potential threat to both local communities and transcontinental aircraft. The ability to detect these volcanic clouds using satellite remote sensing and predict their movement by dispersion modeling is a major component of hazard mitigation. The Puff volcanic ash transport and dispersion model, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, was used to illustrate the impact that these volcanic ash clouds have made across the NOPAC and entire Polar region over the past 40 years. Nearly, 400 separate ash clouds were analyzed that were either reported or detected to have reached above 6 km (20,000 ft) above sea level, an average of one ash cloud every 1.25 months. Particular events showed that ash clouds can be tracked from Alaska to Greenland (Crater Peak, Mount Spurr in 1992), from Kamchatka to Alaska (Kluvicheskoi Volcano in 1994), from Alaska to California (Mount Cleveland Volcano in 2001) and from multiple events within 1 day (Mount Augustine Volcano in 2006). This study showed the vast number of events that have impacted this Polar region and how tracking them is useful for hazard mitigation.     

El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

Automated forecasting of volcanic ash dispersion utilizing Virtual Globes

There are over 100 active volcanoes in the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, most of which are located in sparsely populated areas. Dispersion models play an important role in forecasting the movement of volcanic ash clouds by complementing both remote sensing data and visual observations from the ground and aircraft. Puff is a three-dimensional dispersion model, primarily designed for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory and other agencies. Since early 2007, the model is in an automated mode to predict the movement of airborne volcanic ash at multiple elevated alert status volcanoes worldwide to provide immediate information when an eruption occurs. Twelve of the predictions are within the NOPAC region, nine more within the southern section of the Pacific ring of fire and the others are in Europe and the Caribbean. Model forecasts are made for initial ash plumes ranging from 4 to 20 km altitude above sea level and for a 24-h forecast period. This information is made available via the Puff model website. Model results can be displayed in Virtual Globes for three-dimensional visualization. Here, we show operational Puff predictions in two and three-dimensions in Google Earth^®, both as iso-surfaces and particles, and study past eruptions to illustrate the capabilities that the Virtual Globes can provide. In addition, we show the opportunity that Google Maps^® provides in displaying Puff operational predictions via an application programming web interface and how radiosonde data (vertical soundings) and numerical weather prediction vertical profiles can be displayed in Virtual Globes for assisting in estimating ash cloud heights.     

Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic clouds and the risk to global air traffic

Remote sensing instruments have been used to identify, track and in some cases quantify atmospheric constituents from space-borne platforms for nearly 30 years. These data have proven to be extremely useful for detecting hazardous ash and gas (principally SO₂) clouds emitted by volcanoes and which have the potential to intersect global air routes. The remoteness of volcanoes, the sporadic timings of eruptions and the ability of the upper atmosphere winds to quickly spread ash and gas, make satellite remote sensing a key tool for developing hazard warning systems. It is easily recognized how powerful these tools are for hazard detection and yet there has not been a single instrument designed specifically for this use. Instead, researchers have had to make use of instruments and data designed for other purposes. In this article the satellite instruments, algorithms and techniques used for ash and gas detection are described from a historical perspective with a view to elucidating their value and shortcomings. Volcanic clouds residing in the mid- to upper-troposphere (heights above 5 km) have the greatest potential of intersecting air routes and can be dispersed over many 1,000s of kilometres by the prevailing winds. Global air traffic vulnerability to the threat posed by volcanic clouds is then considered from the perspectives of satellite remote sensing, the upper troposphere mean wind circulation, and current and forecast air traffic density based on an up-to-date aircraft emissions inventory. It is concluded that aviation in the Asia Pacific region will be increasingly vulnerable to volcanic cloud encounters because of the large number of active volcanoes in the region and the increasing growth rate of air traffic in that region. It is also noted that should high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft become operational, there will be an increased risk to volcanic debris that is far from its source location. This vulnerability is highlighted using air traffic density maps based on NOx emissions and satellite SO₂ observations of the spread of volcanic clouds.     

Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation

Satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions can provide critical information for aviation hazard mitigation, particularly when ash detection techniques fail. Recent developments in space-based SO₂ monitoring are discussed, focusing on daily, global ultraviolet (UV) measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. OMI’s high sensitivity to SO₂ permits long-range tracking of volcanic clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and accurate mapping of their perimeters to facilitate avoidance. Examples from 2006 to 2007 include eruptions of Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), Rabaul (Papua New Guinea), Nyamuragira (DR Congo), and Jebel at Tair (Yemen). A tendency for some volcanic clouds to occupy the jet stream suggests an increased threat to aircraft that exploit this phenomenon. Synergy between NASA A-Train sensors such as OMI and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite can provide critical information on volcanic cloud altitude. OMI and AIRS SO₂ data products are being produced in near real-time for distribution to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) via a NOAA website. Operational issues arising from these improved SO₂ measurements include the reliability of SO₂ as proxy for co-erupted ash, the duration of VAAC advisories for long-lived volcanic clouds, and the potential effects of elevated concentrations of SO₂ and sulfate aerosol in ash-poor clouds on aircraft and avionics (including cumulative effects after multiple inadvertent transits through dilute clouds). Further research is required in these areas. Aviation community assistance is sought through continued reporting of sulfurous odors or other indications of diffuse volcanic cloud encounters, in order to validate the satellite retrievals.     

Observations of volcanic emissions from space: current and future perspectives

Volcanoes worldwide pose a major threat to humans at both local and global scales. The effective monitoring of volcanoes is essential to manage and reduce risk associated with the threat that they pose. The measurement of volcanic cloud composition can provide important clues to the underlying volcanic processes and can be indicative of impending eruption. Hazards posed by plumes to humans and animals are significant, as well as the potential climatic impacts and the threat to aircraft by the ingestion of volcanic ash all justify careful monitoring. Recent advances in instrument technology have allowed for high resolution monitoring of volcanic clouds from satellite-based instruments. There exists a suite of instruments with varying spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions, which when used in conjunction can provide detailed information about cloud properties. Such instruments have the capability to quantify sulphur dioxide, ash and aerosol content as well as the spatial and vertical distribution of species. Here we present an overview of the range of instruments useful for such monitoring, outline their functionality and describe the potential of future missions.     

基于FY-3A遥感数据的冰岛火山灰云识别

2010年4月至5月期间冰岛艾雅法拉火山喷发造成了欧洲航空业史无前例的瘫痪以及巨大的经济损失,其严重影响再次显示,对火山灰云进行有效监测的重要性。火山灰云是由火山碎屑物及气体组成的混合物,火山碎屑物主要由直径小于2mm的岩石、矿物、火山玻璃碎片组成,火山灰云中的气体主要包括水汽、CO2、SO2、H2S、CH4、CO、HCL、HF、HBr、和NOx等。使用具有我国自主知识产权的FY-3A/VIRR数据,对此次艾雅法拉火山喷发的不同阶段选取具有典型风向变化的日期,采用分裂窗亮温差算法(SWTD)、RGB真彩色方法、中红外波段数据等进行火山灰云的识别,并将结果与冰岛地区的火山灰监测报告以及前人的研究结果进行对比研究,结果表明:火山喷发初期火山灰云中较高含量的水汽会补偿反面吸收的影响,妨碍分裂窗亮温差算法(SWTD)对火山灰云的识别,而中红外波段数据因对高温物体的敏感性,不受水汽的影响,对喷发初期较高温度的火山灰云识别效果较好;在喷发中期,火山灰云浓度较大时三种方法均表现良好,卫星图像中火山灰云的位置信息及漂移方向均非常清晰,且同气象条件相吻合,验证了识别方法的正确性。该项结果表明,具有我国自主知识产权的FY-3A数据能够达到监测火山灰云的目的,而如何更加清晰地界定火山灰云的边界位置以及更加准确的计算出火山灰云的浓度需要进一步的深入研究。     

Far-travelled ash in past and future eruptions: combining tephrochronology with volcanic studies

Studies of recent eruptions have improved our understanding of volcanic ash transport and deposition, but have also raised important questions about the behaviour of far-travelled (distal) volcanic ash. In particular, it is difficult to reconcile estimates of distal ash mass and transport distance determined from eyewitness accounts, mapped deposits, satellite-based observations and cryptotephra records. Here we address this problem using data from well-characterized eruptions that, collectively, include all four data types. Data from recent eruptions allow us to relate eyewitness accounts to mapped deposits on the ground and satellite-based observations of ash in the air; observations from an historical eruption link eyewitness accounts to cryptotephra deposits. Together these examples show that (i) 10–20% of the erupted mass is typically deposited outside the mapped limits; (ii) estimates of the ash mass transported in volcanic clouds cannot account for all of this unmapped ash; and (iii) ash fall observed at distances beyond mapped deposits can have measurable impacts, and can form cryptotephra deposits with high (>~1000 cm⁻³) shard counts. We conclude that cryptotephra data can be incorporated into volcanological studies of ash transport and deposition and provide important insight into both the behaviour and impacts of far-travelled volcanic ash particles.     

Analysis of Cloud Scale Error of Low Resolution Satellite Based on GF-4 and Its Influence on Downward Radiation Calculation

In order to study the scale error of low resolution meteorological satellite cloud detection and its impact on the calculation of downlink radiation, cloud detection using high resolution stationary satellite GF-4 data and error analysis were carried out. Firstly, the cloud detection of GF-4 data is carried out by using visible channel threshold method and time series method, and the error of cloud detection results of Himawari-8 and FY-2 (FY-2G, FY-2E) is analyzed based on the results of GF-4 cloud detection.In the study area, FY-2G, FY-2E and Himawari-8 cloud images could distinguish the clouds and clear sky. The main reason for the error was the scale effect produced by different spatial resolution satellites(the differences caused by cloud detection algorithms are not discussed here).Most of the errors occurred in the areas of thin clouds and broken clouds.High resolution data could detect broken clouds, while low resolution data lead to false and missed detection. On this basis, the error of remote sensing calculation of short wave radiation was analyzed,and it was found that the error of the actual cloud amount in the pixel would bring significant error to the estimation of the downward radiation.The relative error of the instantaneous downward radiation in the selected test area was -173.52%, and the maximum relative error of shortwave radiation was -20.20%.The results show that the high resolution stationary satellite data can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the downlink shortwave radiation in the regions with more broken clouds.     

Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view

The volcanic ash or ‘tephra’ cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research.     

Development of python-FALL3D: a modified procedure for modelling volcanic ash dispersal in the Asia-Pacific region

Volcanic ash is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards and has the potential to affect hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of people in the densely populated islands of Indonesia. There is limited information available for this region on the hazard posed by volcanic ash, particularly from volcanoes that have not erupted in recent times. There is a need for computational models capable of accurately predicting volcanic ash dispersal at ground level when coupled with field observations of historical or ongoing eruptive activity. To maximise the effectiveness of such models, they should be readily accessible, easy to use and well tested. Geoscience Australia in collaboration with the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction and the Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geohazard Mitigation has collaboratively adapted an existing open-source volcanic ash dispersion model for use in Indonesia. The core model is the widely used, open-source volcanic ash dispersion model FALL3D. A Python wrapper (name here python-FALL3D) has been developed, which modifies the modelling procedure of FALL3D in order to simplify its use for those with little or no background in computational modelling. The modified procedure does not alter the core functionality of FALL3D, but simplifies the modelling procedure by streamlining the installation process, automating both the pre-processing of input meteorological datasets and configuring and executing each utility program in a single-step process. An application example was presented using python-FALL3D for an active volcano in West Java, Indonesia. The example showed that communities located on the western side of Gunung Gede are always susceptible to volcanic ash ground loading regardless of the seasonal variations in wind conditions, whereas communities on the eastern side of Gunung Gede have a marked increase in susceptibility to ground loading during rainy season conditions when prevailing winds include a strong easterly component.     

The terminal Cretaceous event: Circumterrestrial rings of tektite glass particles?

It is proposed to regard the terminal Cretaceous event as similar to the radiolarian extinction event in the late Eocene: the result of a volcanic eruption or series of eruptions on the moon. Some glassy ash, lapilli and blocks from these eruptions fell to the earth; some, in geocentric orbit, formed clouds around the earth. In accordance with current theory, it is found that the clouds in orbit would evolve into sets of rings, which would last a few hundred thousand to a few million years, and would perturb the climate of the earth. One such eruption apparently included iridium-bearing material, perhaps from the deep interior of the moon.The hypothesis permits a reconciliation between the evidence for the catastrophic intervention of extra-terrestrial masses in the earth environment, and the evidence for gradual (though rapid) change of flora and fauna at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. The formation of the E-ring of Saturn by ejecta from the Saturnian satellite Enceladus may have been analogous. The theory might be tested by studies of diurnal layering in molluscan shells.     

Tephra Fallout Models: The Effect of Different Source Shapes on Isomass Maps

Numerous tephra dispersion and sedimentation models rely on some abstraction of the volcanic plume to simplify forecasts of tephra accumulation as a function of the distance from the volcano. Here we present solutions to the commonly used advection–dispersion equation using a variety of source shapes: a point, horizontal and vertical lines, and a circular disk. These may be related to some volcanic plume structure, such as a strong plume (vertical line), umbrella cloud (circular disk), or co-ignimbrite plume (horizontal line), or can be used to build a more complex plume structure such as a series of circular disks to represent a buoyant weak plume. Basing parameters upon eruption data, we find that depositions for the horizontal source shapes are very similar but differ from the vertical line source deposition. We also compare the deposition from a series of stacked circular disk sources of increasing radius above the volcanic vent with that from a vertical line source.     

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.     

Volcanic ash from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano created major disruption to European air traffic. The main uncertainty in predicting the volcanic ash distribution in air space was the nature of the eruption plume including the grain size of the volcanic ash. The volcanic ash samples collected in the vicinity of the volcano on April 15th 2010, the first day of air traffic disruption in Europe, reveal that up to 70% of the mass was less than 60 μm in diameter. This fine grained ash could remain suspended in the atmosphere for days, posing threats to air traffic.     

Widespread dispersal of Icelandic tephra: how does the Eyjafjöll eruption of 2010 compare to past Icelandic events?

The Eyjafjöll AD 2010 eruption is an extraordinary event in that it led to widespread and unprecedented disruption to air travel over Europe – a region generally considered to be free from the hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Following the onset of the eruption, satellite imagery demonstrated the rapid transportation of ash by westerly winds over mainland Europe, eventually expanding to large swathes of the North Atlantic Ocean and the eastern seaboard of Canada. This small‐to‐intermediate size eruption and the dispersal pattern observed are not particularly unusual for Icelandic eruptions within a longer‐term perspective. Indeed, the Eyjafjöll eruption is a relatively modest eruption in comparison to some of the 20 most voluminous eruptions that have deposited cryptotephra in sedimentary archives in mainland Europe, such as the mid Younger Dryas Vedde Ash and the mid Holocene Hekla 4 tephra. The 2010 eruption, however, highlights the critical role that weather patterns play in the distribution of a relatively small amount of ash and also highlights the spatially complex dispersal trajectories of tephra in the atmosphere. Whether or not the preservation of the Eyjafjöll 2010 tephra in European proxy archives will correspond to the extensive distributions mapped in the atmosphere remains to be seen. The Eyjafjöll 2010 event highlights our increased vulnerability to natural hazards rather than the unparalleled explosivity of the event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstruction of cloud-contaminated satellite remote sensing images using kernel PCA-based image modelling

The presence of clouds can restrict the potential uses of remote sensing satellite imagery in extracting information and interpretation. Automatic detection and removal of clouds which hide significant information in the image is an important task in remote sensing. Hence, our aim is to detect clouds and restore the missing information in order to make the image ready for further analysis and applications. Due to the difference in nature and appearance, thick and thin clouds are dealt separately. Thick cloud is detected using an efficient Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm, while thin cloud is detected using a simple region growing technique. In order to reconstruct the missing pixels, we utilize the prior knowledge about the statistics of the specific image class. Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA)-based image model is obtained using a set of training images. Missing area in the image is restored after an iterative projection operation and gradient descent algorithm. In short, an image lying out of the modelled image space is iteratively modified to obtain the restored image and that would be in the image space according to the obtained nonlinear low-dimensional and sparse KPCA image model. To illustrate the performance of the proposed method, a thorough experimental analysis on FORMOSAT multi-spectral images is done using MATLAB platform. When compared to the two recent existing techniques, our proposed method is superior and makes a promising tool for thick and thin cloud removal in multi-spectral satellite images.     

Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74,000 Years Ago

A general feedback between volcanism and climate at times of transition in the Quaternary climate record is suggested, exemplified by events accompanying the Toba eruption (74,000 yr ago), the largest known late Quaternary explosive volcanic eruption. The Toba paroxysm occurred during the δ¹⁸O stage 5a-4 transition, a period of rapid ice growth and falling global sea level, which may have been a factor in creating stresses that triggered the volcanic event. Toba is estimated to have produced between 10¹⁵ and 10¹⁶ g of fine ash and sulfur gases lofted in co-ignimbrite ash clouds to heights of at least 32 ± 5 km, which may have led to dense stratospheric dust and sulfuric acid aerosol clouds. These conditions could have created a brief, dramatic cooling or "volcanic winter," followed by estimated annual Northern Hemisphere surface-temperature decreases of 3° to 5°C caused by the longer-lived aerosols. Summer temperature decreases of 10°C at high northern latitudes, adjacent to regions already covered by snow and ice, might have increased snow cover and sea-ice extent, accelerating the global cooling already in progress. Evidence for such climate-volcanic feedback, following Milankovitch periodicities, is found at several climatic transitions.