灌区干旱风险评估模型研究

根据风险理论,建立了包括农业干旱发生概率、抗旱能力、受灾体种植面积比等多因子的灌区农业干旱风险评估模型。并将相对产量作为灌区农业干旱评估指标,能够反映土壤 作物 大气系统中水分运动对农业生产的影响,利用该指标结合干旱风险评估模型对灌区农业干旱进行风险评估,分析出灌区各种作物对干旱风险度影响最大的生育阶段和风险度最高的农作物,以便灌区制定合理的抗旱方案以减小灌区干旱损失。     

城市泥石流风险评价探讨

探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。     

A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment

The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented.     

Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment

This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model.     

Engineering-geological and geotechnical investigation for risk assessment

Before construction activities could begin, engineering geological and geotechnical investigations had to be approved in order to establish a map with suitable areas for safe construction. The example used in this study is Tunis City which has complex geology and geomorphology. The risk analysis was based on a large-scale land-suitability map that was prepared using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The approach used in this study combined physical data with the geotechnical properties of Tunis City. The adopted methodology and analyses were performed to assess the risk of urban expansion and landscape management. Results are presented as a zoning map that shows the suitable area for safe extension of the urban area. The data used and multi-criterion analysis of geotechnical and geological data seems to be useful for similar case studies and the adopted methodology can be used successfully for identifying similar cities for risk assessment.     

地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论

为了分析阐明突发地质灾害风险评估领域的一些热点问题,在概要地分析地质灾害风险评估技术指南编写的目的、基本原则和结构层次、核心内容的基础上,重点探索了地质灾害易发程度、危险性和风险评估的工作流程。初步提出地质灾害风险评估应该遵循的6条基本原则、结构层次及核心内容;初步提出定性分析－定量化评价相结合的地质灾害风险评估技术方法,提倡实用性技术方法和GIS技术的推广应用;初步提出地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评估区划的基本工作流程。最后,简要地讨论了地质灾害风险评估的一些主要难点和易于混淆的问题,为地质灾害风险评估技术指南的编制和修改完善提供参考依据。     

Flood risk assessment for informal settlements

The urban informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to flooding events, due to both their generally poor quality of construction and high population density. An integrated approach to the analysis of flooding risk of informal settlements should take into account, and propagate, the many sources of uncertainty affecting the problem, ranging from the characterization of rainfall curve and flooding hazard to the characterization of the vulnerability of the portfolio of buildings. This paper proposes a probabilistic and modular approach for calculating the flooding risk in terms of the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specific limit state for each building within the informal settlement and the expected number of people affected (if the area is not evacuated). The flooding risk in this approach is calculated by the convolution of flooding hazard and flooding fragility for a specified limit state for each structure within the portfolio of buildings. This is achieved by employing the flooding height as an intermediate variable bridging over the fragility and hazard calculations. The focus of this paper is on an ultimate limit state where the life of slum dwellers is endangered by flooding. The fragility is calculated by using a logic tree procedure where several possible combinations of building features/construction details, and their eventual outcome in terms of the necessity to perform structural analysis or the application of nominal threshold flood heights, are taken into account. The logic tree branch probabilities are characterized based on both the orthophoto recognition and the sample in situ building survey. The application of the methodology is presented for Suna, a sub-ward of Dar es Salaam City (Tanzania) in the Msimbazi River basin having a high concentration of informal settlements.     

单体滑坡灾害财产风险定量评估模型

目前承灾体易损性评估尚处于经验评估阶段,制约了单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估的定量化程度。为此,针对典型承灾体（建筑结构物）,提出一种单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估模型。认为财产风险是坡体失稳概率、承灾体在滑坡作用下的失效概率以及承灾体价值的乘积。避开了易损性评估,从一个新的角度来评估滑坡灾害财产风险。通过研究,验证了该模型正确反映了滑坡成灾过程中各种因素对财产风险的影响,从而为单体滑坡灾害财产风险的定量化评估提供了新的途径。另外以该模型应用研究为基础,提出承灾体安全范围的概念,对于每一个承灾体而言,将单体滑坡灾害影响范围划分为：危险区域、相对危险区域和安全区域,为建设工程选址或场地风险评估提供了实用指标,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

Landslide risk assessment

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of <0.50=low risk, 0.50 to 1.50=moderate risk, and >1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction.     

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura,Japan

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.     

Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment

Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches: on the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from local disaster databases, allowing estimating losses due to small-scale events and, on the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to estimate losses for greater or even catastrophic events, for which information usually is not available due to the lack of historical data. A “hybrid” loss exceedance curve is thus determined, which combines the results of these two approaches and represents the disaster risk in a proper and complete way. This curve merges two components: the corresponding to small and moderate losses, calculated using an inductive and retrospective analysis, and the corresponding to extreme losses, calculated using a deductive and prospective analysis. Applications of this risk assessment technique are given in this article for eleven countries.     

城市饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价及风险管理

环境健康风险评价是环境科学的一个新兴研究领域,在简要介绍水环境健康风险评价基本方法的基础上,建立了健康风险评价模式,并根据深圳市主要饮用水源地水质监测资料,进行分析与评价。研究结果表明:(1)深圳市7个主要水库由基因毒物质所产生的健康风险的数量级为1 0-5~1 0-4,而由躯体毒物质所产生的健康风险的数量级为1 0-11~1 0-10,因此,基因毒物质为优先控制污染物;(2)对于Cr、As、Cd这三种基因毒物质,这7个水库的优先控制污染物是Cr;(3)对于躯体毒物质,所有水库的优先控制污染物是氨;(4)饮用水源各类污染物所致健康危害的个人年总风险小于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受值,但超过瑞典环保局、荷兰建设和环境部推荐的最大可接受水平。目前环境健康风险评价还没有包括在常规环境评价工作中,建议在今后的评价工作中应该逐步开展这方面的工作,以提高供水安全。     

承灾体易损性评估模型与滑坡灾害风险度指标

承灾体易损性定量评估是制约滑坡灾害风险评估研究的瓶颈问题。为此,以滑坡体冲击冲量为致灾强度指标、建筑物整体抗剪力为抗灾性能指标,推导出典型承灾体易损性定量评估模型。在此基础上,考虑滑体运动特征参数随机性对易损性的影响,提出风险曲线和最大风险度指标的概念,以反映滑坡灾害成灾全过程中不确定性对灾害后果的影响。并采用该模型分析了坡体几何特征参数、受灾体空间位置以及受灾体抗灾性能对易损性的影响规律。将风险度指标应用于算例分析,并与以往方法进行了比较,分析发现,建立的易损性定量评估模型可以反映二维简化情况下受灾体毁损程度与各种影响因素之间关系的基本规律,为易损性定量评估提供了一种途径。     

An integrated GIS-based approach for geohazards risk assessment in coal mines

From the viewpoint of safety in underground coal mining, the most suitable mining panel is the one with minimum geological structures, the right machinery, and equipment selection, trained employee, and proficient stope management. Since the ground parameters are uncontrollable and inherent uncertainties exist, a high percent of risk will usually accompany the underground coal mining activities. The main purpose of this study is to present a geological–geotechnical risk assessment model for identification of high risk-prone areas in underground coal mines using an integrated GIS-geostatistics system. Tabas as the first mechanized and largest underground coal mine in Iran was selected as a case study in this study. Gas content of coal seam, Coal Mine Roof Rating (CMRR), initial in situ stress state, fault throw, and orientation were selected as hazard/risk factors. For estimating the amount of coal seam gas content, CMRR and initial in situ stress in unsampled areas and providing the prediction maps, geostatistics module in ArcGIS was used. Rock engineering system–interaction matrix method was used for attribute weight assignment. Next, the attribute layers were weighted, rated, and overlaid to create a final map of geohazards risk. The analysis results of final risk map indicate that about 45% of under study area is prone to high to very high geohazards risk. Comparison of the results with experiences obtained during the early part of the mine and mined-out panels showed generally good agreement with promising ideas. This highlights the potential application of the GIS-based approach for hazards detection and geohazards risk assessment in underground coal mines.     

Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.     

Health risk assessment for typical and abandoned chromium-contaminated sites

Chromium pollution were investigated by sampling the abandoned chromium contaminated sites in Chongqing. Its health risk was assessed following the procedures made by USEPA. The results showed that the most seriously polluted land was found at the former production area （G4） with average Cr（VI） concentration of 3369.2 mg kg-1 on the surface soil. The assessment indicated that there was high risk of non-carcinogens for children. The assessed risk of the first layer of office area （G1） for children, chromium slag transition （G2）, drainage pipeline chromium slag transition （G3） and production area （G4） for both children and adults were not acceptable （〉1.00× 106）. It was strongly suggested that the accessible measures of remediation should be taken for a portion of contaminated sites before the reuse of abandoned lands.     

Debris flood risk assessment for Mosquito Creek, British Columbia, Canada

Mosquito Creek drains a 15.5 km² watershed on the North Shore Mountains north of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, and flows through the densely urbanized District and then City of North Vancouver. Previous studies determined that the creek is subject to debris floods (hyperconcentrated flows). The National Research Council of Canada is applying multi-hazard risk assessment procedures for various regions in B.C. and chose Mosquito Creek as one of its target areas. As part of its natural hazard management plan, the District of North Vancouver (DNV) requested an assessment of debris flood hazards and associated risk to life. Using a combination of empirical methods, dendrochronology and some judgment, BGC Engineering Inc. assessed debris flood hazard extent, velocity and depth for estimated 100-, 200-, 500- and 2,500-year debris flow return periods. Based on the results from the hazard assessment, risk for individuals and groups living within the hazard area, including residential homes and a fire hall, was estimated. Compared to risk tolerance criteria accepted on an interim basis by the DNV, we estimate that societal risk exceeds tolerable standards and that individual risk exceeds tolerable standards for 10 homes. The results from the risk to loss of life study have prompted DNV to implement a series of risk reduction measures including installation of a debris containment net and watershed restoration measures.     

Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan

Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.     

MRPN technique for assessment of working risks in underground coal mines

Accidents in underground collieries, under geological and geotechnical uncertainties, cause some irrecoverable consequences for workers. Recognizing and studying the effective factors in the occurrence of such accidents have a very crucial impact on improving worker safety and reducing mining costs. This paper introduces a new and beneficial technique named “modified risk priority number (MRPN)” for recognizing and assessing those risks which may cause working accidents in Iranian underground collieries. The available qualitative data from the mines was quantified using standard tables established for risk assessment. The technique was exemplified using data from mine accidents in Kerman and East-Alborz regions. Roof-fall was found to be the most significant risk factor in the mines that were investigated.     

Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany

Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed.