自然变异与灾害过程的社会学研究

论述了自然变异及自然灾害与人类社会的互馈关系 ,探讨了社会条件控制下自然灾害的阶段性特点 ,提出了开展灾害社会学研究的使命。认为自然变异及自然灾害破坏人类社会的健康发展 ,但人类社会并不是完全被动的应付自然变异和自然灾害 ,而是对自然变异及自然灾害作出双向反响。一方面 ,采取科学的社会行为 ,积极抑制灾害活动 ,减轻自然灾害破坏损失 ;另一方面因政治腐败 ,纲纪松弛 ,经济衰退 ,社会混乱 ,或违背自然规律 ,盲目的社会经济活动 ,导致天灾与人祸并行 ,不仅加剧自然灾害 ,甚至导致许多全球性重大环境问题 ,对人类社会造成广泛而深远的影响。自然灾害不仅受自然条件控制 ,而且受人类社会的强烈影响 ,因此自然灾害除伴随自然条件发生复杂的周期性变化外 ,还伴随社会条件发生阶段性变化。自然灾害是一种自然社会现象 ,而且随着人类社会的持续发展 ,自然灾害的社会性越来越强烈。因此 ,在进一步加强灾害的自然科学研究的同时 ,开展社会学研究 ,对于发展灾害理论以及促进减灾事业的发展是十分必要的。     

地质科学在自然灾害综合研究中的作用

各种自然灾害的发生、发展和时空分布都不是孤立的，而是相互耦合从而形成一个统一的自然灾害系统。自然灾害系统是地球整体系统的一个组成部分。地球系统科学研究的基础和中坚是地质科学，因此地质科学在自然灾害综合研究中有着重要的地位。目前的研究表明：自然灾害系统的形成机制与分布，受到了地壳运动、地质作用和地质构造格局的控制，同时地球下垫面的状况又可以制约自然灾害的孕育、活动和能量释放过程。因此，对和自然灾害的发生有着密切关系的各种地质条件进行深入研究，是自然灾害综合研究的基础，也是进行自然灾害综合预报的基础。     

基于属性规律的区域地质灾害预警与决策支持系统

地质灾害既具有自然属性,又具有社会属性。而目前国内的有关预警系统仅考虑了自然属性,其作用较之防灾实践的要求仍有不小的差距。因此,建立基于自然-社会地质灾害自然-社会属性规律的区域地质灾害预警与决策支持系统具有重要的现实意义。作者运用GIS等计算机技术,研究了建立基于属性规律的区域地质灾害预警、决策支持系统的任务、作用及结构。并对区域地质灾害预警、决策支持系统开发作了一些理论性的探讨。     

Disasters in Bangladesh

This paper deals with various types of natural disasters which occur very frequently in Bangladesh. Disaster can occur at any time, in any place, in any dimension, and may owe as much to the circumstances as to the scale of the event. With the exception of the man-made disaster of war, famine, fire, pollution, accident and civil strife, the worst disasters follow natural events.Bangladesh is widely known as a land of natural disasters and is highly vulnerable to flood, cyclone and river erosion. By the effects of these disasters the country is now permanently in distress. These disasters have become a regular phenomenon and cause suffering to millions of people of the country since many decades. Besides, it also focuses on policy options concerning disaster management.     

人类活动在放大和减轻山地灾害中所起作用--以太行山区前南峪和真炭沟小流域为例

山地生态环境脆弱性是山地灾害形成的基础。通过太行山两个典型小流域在 1996年 8月的洪涝灾情形成的对比分析 ,揭示了人类活动在山地环境脆弱性方面所起的重要作用。合理的土地利用方式和水土保持措施可以有效地减轻流域对洪涝灾害的脆弱性。在相同的自然条件和致灾因子强度下 ,脆弱性强 ,灾情重。     

Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness

A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms.     

新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

地球自然灾害发生原因初探

本文根据应力与应变原理对地球上自然灾害发生的原因进行了分析研究，根据灾害发生原因的不同，将其分为一般灾害和特殊灾害两种类型。本文还介绍了每种灾害类型的特点，危险及其相互关系，通过综合研究，掌握了地球上各种自然灾害发生的原因后，人类对各种灾害的预防工作就会变被动为主动。     

广西公路地质灾害特征及三级地貌区划研究

滑坡、崩塌、岩溶、膨胀土是影响广西地区公路工程建设的主要地质灾害,文章在全面调查广西地貌,自然环境特征的基础上,系统研究了该区地质灾害特点、分布及对公路工程的危害;针对以往公路自然区划中对气候（水热）因素考虑较多的情况,依据《公路自然区划标准》三级区划的第一种方法,遵循公路自然区划原则,借鉴自然区划方法,利用计算机平台（GIS）,制定广西公路三级地貌区划体系,该体系对广西地区的公路工程建设具有较大使用价值;依据该区划方案提出预防和治理该区主要公路地质灾害的措施。     

Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters

Natural Hazards - Understanding the occurrence of natural disasters in regions where the occurrence is high is very important, and it is known that the occurrence of disasters associated with...     

中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范

巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。      

自然灾害测报网格及其实现的关键技术研究

自然灾害测报是一门综合的科学,它涉及到的灾害数据采集、信息资源分布、异构等问题制约了行业应用和信息化发展,而网格是新一代高性能计算环境和信息服务的基础设施,能够实现动态跨地域的资源共享和整合工作。自然灾害测报网格（NDPG）基于网格技术,为灾害测报工作服务。本文对自然灾害测报网格的概念、研究内容和框架体系进行了初步探讨,并讨论了NDPG在实现中的几个关键技术问题。     

自然灾害灾情评估研究与实践进展

自然灾害灾情评估是科学开展灾害管理工作的基础。灾情评估以单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情评估为主要内容,基于历史灾情统计资料的评估方法、基于承灾体易损性的评估方法、现场抽样调查统计方法、遥感图像或航片识别法、基层统计上报方法、经济学方法等是灾情评估的主要方法。灾情评估的目标从对灾情的估算和统计扩展到对灾情大小的分级,评估内容上逐步重视灾害的社会经济影响评估,评估方法上注重多种方法的综合应用,以及建立灾情评估系统是灾情评估研究与应用的主要发展方向。国内外研究和实践成果在减灾工作中的实际应用亟待加强,迫切需要形成包括对单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情综合评估在内的自然灾害灾情评估的内容体系、评估指标体系、评估标准体系和评估方法体系。     

甘肃武山县环境地质问题及防止地质灾害的方法

阐述了武山县曾发生过的严重的地质灾害，以及现今仍存在的与地质条件和人为活动有关的县城规划安全的环境地质问题。指出这些安全隐患问题的不断累积将有可能引发地质灾害的危险。提出除了对环境地质问题有明确的认识外，还要充分利用自然条件，尊重自然地质作用的基本规律，籍以指导防止地质灾害的工作，并探讨了开展此项工作的两个方法。     

九寨沟地质灾害预测的空间分析模型

九寨沟是世界自然遗产,由于其活跃的新构造背景条件,因此是地质灾害的高发区。此次研究,应用了地理信息系统的空间分析工具,提取模型因子,采用模糊综合评价方法,建立九寨沟地区的地质灾害预测空间分析模型,划分地质灾害等级,对九寨沟地区的灾害进行预测,取得较好的效果。     

吉林省通化市地质灾害气象预报预警方法介绍

地质灾害是吉林省通化市较为严重的自然灾害之一。本文介绍了吉林省通化市地质灾害气象预报预警方法,通过建立预报预警模型,然后制作预警预报产品,并在汛期及时发布,对吉林省通化市地质灾害预报起到了较好的效果。     

Regional effects of natural disasters in China: investing in post-disaster recovery

We examine the effects of natural disasters on income and investment in China. Using macroeconomic province-level data and the provincial history of disaster exposure over the past two decades, we describe the relationship between disaster mortality and morbidity, disasters’ economic damages, government investment and regional economic activity, and infrastructure development. The Chinese government’s aggressive investment in post-disaster reconstruction is discussed, and the implications of this investment for post-disaster private sector economic activity are analyzed empirically. We further investigate the differential effects of natural disasters on economic activity in China’s diverse geographical regions.     

Regional effects of natural disasters in China: investing in post-disaster recovery

We examine the effects of natural disasters on income and investment in China. Using macroeconomic province-level data and the provincial history of disaster exposure over the past two decades, we describe the relationship between disaster mortality and morbidity, disasters’ economic damages, government investment and regional economic activity, and infrastructure development. The Chinese government’s aggressive investment in post-disaster reconstruction is discussed, and the implications of this investment for post-disaster private sector economic activity are analyzed empirically. We further investigate the differential effects of natural disasters on economic activity in China’s diverse geographical regions.

     

Social and Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim.