A review on simulation models for exploration and exploitation of natural gas hydrate

Simulation models have been used widely to help design, operate, control and optimize the processes of exploration and exploitation of natural gas hydrates and been responsible for many of the most important technology breakthroughs. Currently, a rich body of literature exists and is still evolving. This paper presents a critical review of the most influential works that are recognised as representative and important simulation models and links to the techniques commonly used in natural gas hydrate exploration and exploitation. Model background, ideal assumptions and main results are presented. Models are broadly classified into two categories: physically and empirically based models. Models are reviewed with comprehensive, although not exhaustive, publications. The strengths and limitations of the models are discussed. The paper is concluded by outlining open questions and new directions for future work. The review is useful for understanding the innovation process and the current and future status of simulation models on exploration and exploitation of natural gas hydrate and highlights the key aspects of model improvement.     

热成因甲烷碳同位素分布的形成机制

很多学者从不同的角度用不同的方法模拟了从有机母质 (包括煤和干酪根等气源 )形成天然气 (甲烷 )时的碳同位素分馏效应 ,建立了碳同位素分馏效应的很多模型 ,同时也讨论了催化作用和成烃后作用对天然气碳同位素的影响。但这些理论模型和模拟实验结果都还不能完全地拟合自然界中热成因甲烷碳同位素的分布 ,也未能从本质上完全阐明其碳同位素的分馏机制。其原因是各种模型的前提假设都未能完全满足复杂的自然界条件。今后工作的重点应放在用化学动力学的方法建立更完善的模型上 ,同时也应当重点考虑催化作用和成烃后作用对天然气同位素的影响。     

Evans blue removal from wastewater by rarasaponin–bentonite

The feasibility of natural bentonite and rarasaponin–bentonite for Evans blue removal from aqueous solution was studied. Rarasaponin is a natural surfactant obtained from Sapindus rarak DC was used as modifying agent for natural bentonite modification. Adsorption experiments were conducted in a batch system at various temperatures. Several temperature-dependent isotherm models (Langmuir, Freundlich, Sips and Toth) were used to represent equilibrium data. It was found that Toth model represents the adsorption equilibrium data better than other models. Kinetic data were best represented by the pseudo-first order model. The controlling mechanism of the adsorption of Evans blue onto natural bentonite and rarasaponin–bentonite was physical adsorption.     

区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展

讨论了区域自然灾害风险的含义,指出了保险与灾害研究中对风险含义的不同理解,着重说明可能性风险概念,综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型,指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识,风险估算,风险评价三个环节,风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型,概率风险模型,可能性风险模型三个阶段,着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。     

四川天然气化探异常模式的研究

根据四川盆地两个天然气藏的土壤地球化学异常特征、指标间的组合关系 ,建立了“环中顶”和“面状”化探异常模式。经川西地区油气化探生产实践 ,表明两种异常模式对寻找天然气藏具有良好的效果     

Chemical structural studies of natural lignin by dipolar dephasing solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance

Two natural lignins, one from a gymnosperm wood the other from angiosperm wood, were examined by conventional solid-state and dipolar dephasing ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) techniques. The results obtained from both techniques show that the structure of natural lignins is consistent with models of softwood and hardwood lignin. The dipolar dephasing NMR data provide a measure of the degree of substitution on aromatic rings which is consistent with the models.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

山坡风化表层碎石爬行机理研究

山坡风化表层碎石爬行运动是存在于自然界、受多种环境因素影响的一种地表缓慢地质变形现象。本文在介绍有关现场试验测量方法的基础上,通过对测量数据和实地观察结果的分析研究,初步描述了这一自然现象的运动机理和存在的运动形式,并提出了对这一自然现象进行可能的力学、数学模拟研究的初步设想和尝试。     

滑雪场积雪模拟研究进展

滑雪场的积雪条件是评价其盈利能力的关键指标.通过积雪模型准确地模拟滑雪场积雪条件对评估滑雪旅游目的地的气候风险具有重要意义,积雪模型亦可为滑雪场的造雪量和造雪时间提供科学依据.首先简要概述了滑雪场积雪模拟的发展趋势,介绍了具体的模拟方法.分析发现,应用于滑雪场积雪模拟的模型从早期的经验线性模型发展为简化的物理模型,再到...     

油气田（井）生产动态预测的灰色预测模型

本文针对辽河油田荣３７块天然气藏（井）的生产动态预测中,生产数据的离散状态及不均衡的实际,较完整、系统地介绍了所引入的几个使用效果好,拟合精度高的一般灰色系统ＧＭ（１,１）模型及为解决油气田（井）生产过程中因关井、生产间断、或因工程上的与地质上的原因生产出现随机性急剧变化而引入两个改进的ＧＭ（１,１）模型－非等间距和阶跃模型。通过几种模型特征的分析对比及在辽河油田荣３７块全气藏及气井的动态拟合预测     

Sensitivity of shear zones in orogenic wedges to surface processes and strain softening

We investigate the internal deformation of orogenic wedges growing by frontal accretion with a two-dimensional numerical model. Our models are limited to crustal deformation and assume a horizontal detachment as observed for various natural orogens (e.g. Alaska and Costa Rica). The model wedges develop as a result of convergence of a brittle sediment layer in front of a strong backstop. We find that our reference model develops in-sequence forward-thrusts which propagate upward from the basal detachment. For this reference model we investigate the sensitivity of shear zone activity to surface processes and strain softening. Model results show that diffusive or slope dependent erosion enhances material transport across the wedge and slows down forward propagation of the deformation front. Frictional strain softening focuses deformation into narrow shear zones and enhances displacement along them. This has also been postulated for natural thrusts such as the Glarus thrust in the Swiss Alps and the Moine thrust in the Scottish Caledonides. A second series of models investigates the effects of regularly spaced weak inclusions within the sediment layer which simulate remnants of previous deformation phases. These inclusions facilitate and focus internal deformation, influence the thrust dip and thrust vergence and enable thrust reactivation in the internal part of the wedge. Our results show that inactive thrusts in the internal part of the wedges may be reactivated in models with diffusive surface processes, strain softening or weak inclusions. Thrust reactivation occurs as models seek to maintain their critical taper angle. First order characteristics of our numerical models agree well with natural orogenic wedges and results from other numerical and analogue models.     

Computational methods for fitting statistical distribution models of multi-site binding equilibria

Statistical distribution models of multi-site binding equilibria have potential applicability in the study of acid-base and metal complexation chemistry of humic substances in soils, sediments, and natural waters. A mathematical derivation is presented for the general continuous model for the case of proton binding; computational methods are described for fitting numerically the parameters in such models. Among models considered are those based on nontruncated, truncated, and bimodal (mixed) distributions. Specific emphasis is placed on Gaussian distribution models.     

Revised activity–composition models for clinopyroxene and amphibole

Recent activity–composition models for clinopyroxene and amphibole are revised to provide better consistency with observed phase relations in natural rocks. For clinopyroxene, the calibration in NCFMAS is retained, but the incorporation of acmite is revised to improve the partitioning of ferric iron between coexisting clinopyroxenes. For amphibole, the NCFMASH calibration is retained, but the addition of ferric iron is changed to provide consistency with the clinopyroxenes. The thermodynamics of orthoamphibole (gedrite) is also adjusted to resolve an unrelated inconsistency. The effects of these improvements are illustrated through comparison of calculated pseudosections produced with the existing and new models with natural data from lawsonite eclogites.     

Comparison of Static,Kinematic and Dynamic Geodetic Deformation Models for Kutlugün Landslide in Northeastern Turkey

Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.     

塔里木盆地天然气运聚系统与运聚模式

对塔里木盆地东部地层压力结构和天然气性质差异的研究表明,塔里木盆地东部具有多个独立的天然气运聚系统。这些运聚系统具有流体封存箱的特征。天然气只能在运聚系统内部进行短距离的运移,不能进行大规模侧向运移。因此天然气藏的形成具有近源的特点。由于不同运聚系统特征的差异,塔里木盆地大致有三种天然气运聚模式。     

Functional trajectory models for assessment of transplanted eelgrass,Zostera marina L., in the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire

Functional trajectory models were used to assess the restoration of ecological functions in two transplanted eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) beds compared to three natural, reference beds in the Great Bay Estuary, New Hamsphire. Functional trajectory models describe the development of ecological functions over time in restored habitats relative to levels of function in natural habitats. We present the first application of trajectory models to transplanted seagrass and evaluate the utility of these models as a tool for assessing seagrass restoration. The project was an analysis of 9 yr of monitoring data, the longest monitoring of transplanted eelgrass to date. We used trajectory models to assess the time course of development of functions in transplanted beds by evaluating statistical trends, and to determine functional equivalence, defined as the time when functions in a transplanted bed reach an asymptote and are no more than 1 standard deviation below the reference mean. The functions modeled included primary production, 3-dimensional habitat structure, faunal use, and sediment filtering and trapping. Measured proxies for primary production and habitat structure increased logistically (sigmoidally) with time, reaching functional equivalence after 3 yr. In transplanted beds, trends in habitat use by infaunal invertebrates and fish were logarithmic, and values were functionally equivalent 2–4 yr after transplanting. We saw no trend in sediment filtering and trapping capacity of transplanted eelgrass over the 9 yr. Measures of function in both reference and transplanted beds fluctuated due to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. After reaching equivalence, measures of function in transplanted beds tracked those in reference beds, exhibiting long-term persistence and rebounding from disturbances similarly to reference beds. Trajectory models can illustrate the time course of eelgrass bed development, aiding the design of monitoring programs and the evaluation of ecological functional equivalence in seagrass restoration projects.     

Towards Stochastic Time-Varying Geological Modeling

The modeling of subsurface geometry and properties is a key element to understand Earth processes and manage natural hazards and resources. In this paper, we suggest this field should evolve beyond pure data fitting approaches by integrating geological concepts to constrain interpretations or test their consistency. This process necessarily calls for adding the time dimension to 3D modeling, both at the geological and human time scales. Also, instead of striving for one single best model, it is appropriate to generate several possible subsurface models in order to convey a quantitative sense of uncertainty. Depending on the modeling objective (e.g., quantification of natural resources, production forecast), this population of models can be ranked. Inverse theory then provides a framework to validate (or rather invalidate) models which are not compatible with certain types of observations. We review recent methods to better achieve both stochastic and time-varying geomodeling and advocate that the application of inversion should rely not only on random field models, but also on geological concepts and parameters.     

A thermodynamic model for titanium and ferric iron solution in biotite

Recent crystallographic data indicate that in biotite Ti orders preferentially onto the M2 octahedral site rather than onto the M1 site as assumed in previous solution models for K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (KFMASHTO) biotite. In view of these data, we reformulate and reparameterize former biotite solution models. Our reparameterization takes into account Fe–Mg order–disorder and ferric iron contents of natural biotite as well as both natural and experimental observations on biotite Ti-content over a wide range of physicochemical conditions. In comparison with previous biotite models, the new model reproduces the Ti-content and stability field of biotite as constrained by experiments with significantly better accuracy. The predictive power of the model is tested by comparison with petrologically well-characterized natural samples of SiO₂-saturated and SiO₂-undersaturated rocks that were not used in the parameterization. In all these tests, the reformulated model performs well.     

How many subductions in the Variscan orogeny? Insights from numerical models

We developed a 2D numerical model to simulate the evolution of two superposed ocean-continent-ocean subduction cycles with opposite vergence, both followed by continental collision, aiming to better understand the evolution of the Variscan belt. Three models with different velocities of the first oceanic subduction have been implemented. Striking differences in the thermo-mechanical evolution between the first subduction, which activates in an unperturbed system, and the second subduction, characterised by an opposite vergence, have been enlighten, in particular regarding the temperature in the mantle wedge and in the interior of the slab. Pressure and temperature (P-T) conditions predicted by one cycle and two cycles models have been compared with natural P-T estimates of the Variscan metamorphism from the Alps and from the French Massif Central (FMC). The comparative analysis supports that a slow and hot subduction well reproduces the P-T conditions compatible with data from the FMC, while P-T conditions compatible with data of Variscan metamorphism from the Alps can be reproduced by either a cold or hot oceanic subduction models. Analysing the agreement of both double and single subduction models with natural P-T estimates, we observed that polycyclic models better describe the evolution of the Variscan orogeny.     

Kinematics and 3-D internal deformation of granular slopes: Analogue models and natural landslides

This study uses results from a series of analogue models, and field observations, scanned data and sections of natural landslides to investigate the kinematics and internal deformation during the failure of an unstable slope. The models simulate collapse of granular slopes and focus on the spatial and temporal distribution of their internal structures. Using a series of systematically designed models, we have studied the effect of friction and deformability of the runout base on internal deformation within a granular slope. The results of these different models show that the collapse of granular slopes resulted in different-generation extensional faults at the back of the slope, and contractional structures (overturned folds, sheath folds and thrusts) at the toe of the slope. The failure surfaces and the volume of the failure mass changed both spatially and temporally. Younger failure surfaces formed in the back of the older ones by incorporating additional new material from the head of the slope. Our model results also show that the nature of the runout base has a significant influence on the runout distance, topography and internal deformation of a granular slope. Model results are compared with natural landslides where local profiles were dug in order to decipher the internal structures of the failure mass. The natural cases show similar structural distribution at the head and toe of the failure mass. As in model results, our field observations indicate the presence of at least two generations of failure surfaces where the older ones are steeper.