Resilient capacity assessment for geological failure areas: examples from communities affected by debris flow disaster

This study establishes a novel method for assessing the community resilient capacity of debris flow disasters with appropriate parameters, such as responding, monitoring and communication capabilities. This study adopts eight communities in Taiwan, namely Nangang, Tongfu, Jhongyang, Laiyuan, Chingfu, Sinsheng, Shangan and Jyunkeng, as examples. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to establish the framework of the community resiliency capacity, including the community’s resources for disaster resilience and resident capabilities. The community’s resources for disaster resilience are identified by surveying the community leaders via checklists. Resident capabilities are determined using questionnaires. The community resilient capacity refers to the sum of the results from these two investigations. The two investigations have similar weights, indicating that they are equally significant when evaluating community resilient capacity. Second, FLO-2D software is utilized for hazard analysis by simulation results of deposited areas for debris flows, and then these areas were categorized according to hazard degrees. Finally, the vulnerability of communities is classified based on the land use type. In summary, the values of capacity, hazard and vulnerability are integrated to determine the risk of debris flow for each community. A risk map is then generated.     

Community resilience,globalization, and transitional pathways of decision-making

This article investigates the impacts of globalization processes on community resilience. It argues that theoretical concepts such as transition theory can provide a lens through which resilience pathways at community level can be better understood, and proposes a framework focused on a social resilience approach for understanding community resilience as the conceptual space at the intersection between economic, social and environmental capital. It argues that certain types of communities are losing resilience through increased embeddedness into globalized pathways of decision-making, while other communities may be gaining resilience, although not one system is either totally resilient or totally vulnerable. Striking the right ‘balance’ between communities and their scalar interactions with the global level is key for maximization of community resilience: while too much isolation of a community may be bad in light of over-dependency on local resources, skills and people, ‘over-globalization’, with possible loss of autonomy and identity, may be equally fraught with problems. In particular, relocalized communities have, so far, not shown much tangible success, as almost all members of the relocalization process at community level are simultaneously embedded within the global capitalist system through their dependencies on global economic processes.     

Land-use planning for natural hazards in New Zealand: the setting,barriers, ‘burning issues’ and priority actions

Land-use planners have a critical role to play in building vibrant, sustainable and hazard resilient communities in New Zealand. The policy and legal setting for natural hazards planning provides a solid foundation for good practice. But there are many examples of ‘bad practice’ that result in unnecessary risks and, in some cases, exposure to repeat events and potentially devastating impacts. Much, therefore, remains to be done to improve hazards planning policy and practice in New Zealand. This article explores the questions: What role does land-use planning play in managing hazard risks in New Zealand; and what needs to be done to reduce hazard risks and build community resilience? The article starts by describing the milieu within which natural hazards planning takes place. It goes onto outline the stakeholders and institutional and legal setting for natural hazards planning in New Zealand, including barriers to realising the potential of natural hazards planning. This synthesis reveals a number of ‘burning issues’, including the need to: (a) Improve understanding about the nature of hazards; (b) Prioritise risk avoidance (reduction) measures; (c) Provide national guidance for communities exposed to repeat events and address the relocation issue and (d) Mainstream climate change adaptation. Each ‘burning issue’ is discussed, and priority actions are recommended to realise the potential of land-use planning to reduce natural hazard risks and build community resilience in New Zealand. Ultimately, the challenge is to develop a cooperative hazards governance approach that is founded on coordinated policies, laws and institutions, cooperative professional practice and collaborative communities.     

Community resilience to tsunamis along the Southeastern Pacific: a multivariate approach incorporating physical,environmental, and social indicators

Tsunamic events are a frequent hazard to coastal towns. Despite this, the extent to which resilience models can be applied to coastal towns as well as the aspects that should be considered when doing so have not been fully evaluated. There is little information regarding the specific indicators that allow cities to better cope and adapt to the impacts of tsunamis, and this information is especially scarce for developing countries such as Chile. The main objective of this study is to develop a resilience model to explore the extent to which local characteristics influence the resilience of Chilean coastal communities to tsunami hazards. Accordingly, this study presents the Coastal Community Resilience model (The CORE model) for exploring the adaptive capacity of coastal areas affected by tsunamis. This model was then applied to fourteen coastal villages, distributed within four towns, three communes, and two regions of Chile. Data comprising 21 indicators that address the physical, environmental, and social resilience aspects of the villages were obtained on-site and from governmental and municipality databases; these data were then subjected to multivariate analysis in order to determine which indicators most and least affect resilience and whether indicators affect resilience positively or negatively. Variation in resilience among the villages was explained by similarities and differences in the administrative-political, urban, rural, and indigenous characteristics of the study areas. In addition to these results, we discuss land use planning considerations to build community resilience, and we provide insight into the utility of the resilience model proposed here. Overall, our findings shed light on gaps in planning policies and opportunities for planning coastal resilient communities, particularly for those where data of explicit indicators are scarce like in Chile and other developing countries.

     

Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages,losses, risks,and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside,Oregon

This paper presents a methodology to deaggregate the results of a multi-hazard damage analysis by extending the traditional multi-hazard damage analysis to consider both population characteristics and independent hazards. The methodology is applied to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon, considering four infrastructure systems: (1) buildings, (2) transportation network, (3) electric power network and (4) water supply network. Damages to all infrastructure systems are evaluated, and the networked infrastructures are used to inform parcel connectivity to critical facilities. US Census data and a probabilistic housing unit allocation method are implemented to assign detailed household demographic characteristics at the parcel level. Six dimensions of deaggregation are introduced: (1) spatial, (2) hazard type, (3) hazard intensity, (4) infrastructure system, (5) infrastructure component, and (6) housing unit characteristics. The damages, economic losses and risks, and connectivity to critical facilities are deaggregated across these six dimensions. The results show that deaggregated economic loss and risk plots can allow community resilience planners the ability to isolate high-risk events, as well as provide insights into the underlying driving forces. Geospatial representation of the results allows for the identification of both vulnerable buildings and areas within a community and is highlighted by the spatial pattern of parcel disconnection from critical facilities. The incorporation of population characteristics provides an understanding of how hazards disproportionately impact population subgroups and can aide in equitable resilience planning.

     

The occurrence laws of campus stampede accidents in China and its prevention and control measures

This research appraises how residential built environment growth influences coastal exposure and how this component of societal vulnerability contributes to tropical cyclone impact and disaster potential. Historical housing unit data and future demographic projections from a high-resolution, spatial allocation model illustrate that the area within 50 km of the US Atlantic and Gulf Coastlines has the greatest housing unit density of any physiographic region in the USA, with residential development in this region outpacing non-coastal areas. Tropical cyclone exposure for six at-risk metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are assessed. All six MSAs evaluated are distinct in their development character, yet all experienced significant growth from 1940 through the contemporary period; projections from the model under various socioeconomic pathways reveal that this growth is anticipated to continue during the twenty-first century. Using a worst-case scenario framework, the historical and future residential data for the six MSAs are intersected with synthetic hurricane wind swaths generated from contemporary landfalling events. The New York City MSA contains the greatest residential built environment exposure, but Miami is the most rapidly changing MSA and has the greatest potential for hurricane disaster occurrence based on the juxtaposition of climatological risk and exposure. A disaster potential metric illustrates that all six MSAs will experience significant increases in disaster probability during the twenty-first century. This analysis facilitates a detailed spatiotemporal assessment of US coastal region vulnerability, providing decision makers with information that may be used to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone disasters, mitigate tropical cyclone hazard impacts, and build community resilience for these and other hazards in the face of environmental and societal change.     

Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies

Vulnerability studies have evolved significantly in recent decades. Although not overly theoretical compared with some other fields of science, some important conceptual progress has been made. At the practical level, vulnerability indicators have been used either at a generic level or for particular hazard contexts. However, these indicators are often predictably too narrow in their coverage of aspects of vulnerability. An important need remains to produce more conceptually informed vulnerability indicators or parameters and more satisfactory operational tools to assess weaknesses and resilience in coping with natural risks. In this paper, we present the methodology developed in the context of a recently concluded EU funded project, ENSURE (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards). The resulting vulnerability and resilience assessment framework tool adopts a systemic approach embedding and integrating as much as possible the multifaceted and articulated nature of concepts such as vulnerability and resilience. The tool guides evaluators towards a comprehensive and context-related understanding of strengths and fragilities of a given territory and community with respect to natural extremes. In this paper, both the framework tool and its application to Sondrio in Italy, which is exposed to flash floods, are presented and discussed. The merits and demerits of the new tool are discussed, and the results of the application to Sondrio indicate where data are currently missing, suggesting the kind of data, which will need to be gathered in future to achieve more complete assessments. The results also suggest vulnerability reduction policies and actions and further ways of revising the existing framework tool in the future.     

Comparison of GA-BP and PSO-BP neural network models with initial BP model for rainfall-induced landslides risk assessment in regional scale: a case study in Sichuan,China

Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience.

     

Annual landslide risk and effectiveness of risk reduction measures in Shihmen watershed,Taiwan

Landslide risk analysis procedures in this study could evaluate annual landslide risk, and assess the effectiveness of measures. Risk analysis encompassing landslide hazard, vulnerability, and resilience capacity was used to evaluate annual landslide risk. First, landslide spatial, temporal, and area probabilities were joined to estimate annual probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, different elements were assigned corresponding values and vulnerabilities to calculate the expected property and life losses. Third, the resilience capacities of communities were calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of items, including “the participation experience of disaster prevention drill,” “real-time monitoring mechanism of community,” “autonomous monitoring of residents,” and “disaster prevention volunteer.” Finally, the annual landslide probabilities, expected losses, and resilience capacities were combined to evaluate annual landslide risk in Shihmen watershed. In addition, annual risks before and after the implementation of measures were compared to determine the benefits of measures, and subsequently benefit–cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit–cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit–cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating the effectiveness of measures was greater than the investment cost. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed changes in vulnerabilities and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit–cost ratio. However, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.     

Women’s empowerment following disaster: a longitudinal study of social change

This paper examines changes in gender relations in a small coastal community as a result of the 2010 Chile earthquake and tsunami. Vulnerability and resilience are used as a conceptual framework to analyse these changes. Based on empirical evidence from a seven-year longitudinal study and quasi-ethnographic work, we explore changes in power relations at the different stages of the disaster and longer-term recovery as well as the conditions that fostered these changes. Our findings show distinct patterns of change. First, disasters can trigger long-lasting changes that challenge historical patriarchal relations. Second, while vulnerability increases following a disaster, resilience can potentially counteract women’s vulnerability. We propose that resilience can be a pathway to produce long-term changes in gender relations and empower women in the context of disasters.     

Flood risk management,an approach to managing cross-border hazards

River flooding is a serious hazard in the UK with interest driven by recent widespread events. This paper reviews different approaches to flood risk management and the borders (physical, conceptual and organisational) that are involved. The paper showcases a multi-method approach to negotiating flood risk management interventions. We address three fundamental issues around flood risk management: differences and similarities between a variety of approaches; how different approaches work across borders between professionals, lay people, organisations and between different planning regimes; and, whether the science evidence base is adequate to support different types of flood risk management. We explore these issues through a case study on the River Tweed using Q methodology, community mapping and focus groups, participatory GIS, and interviews, which enabled co-production of knowledge around possible interventions to manage flooding. Our research demonstrated that excellent networks of practice exist to make decisions about flood risk management in the Scottish–English borders. Physical and organisational borders were continually traversed in practice. There was an overwhelming desire from professional flood managers and local communities for an alternative to simply structural methods of flood management. People were keen to make use of the ability of catchments to store water, even if land needed to be sacrificed to do so. There was no difference in the desire to embrace natural flood management approaches between people with different roles in flood management, expertise, training or based in different locations. Thus conceptual borders were also crossed effectively in practice.     

Spatial and temporal evolution of community resilience to natural hazards in the coastal areas of China

With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.     

Planning for resettlement: building partnerships for,by, and with Indigenous peoples

Efforts in the United States to plan or implement relocation in response to climate risks have struggled to improve material conditions for participants, to incorporate local knowledge, and to keep communities intact. Mixed methodologies of community geography provide an opportunity for dialogue and knowledge-sharing to collaboratively diagnose the challenges of climate adaptation led by communities. In this article, we advance a participatory practice model for the co-creation of knowledge initiated during a two-day workshop with members from the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe from Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, Yup’ik people from Newtok Village in Alaska, and researchers from the MIT Resilient Communities Lab. Building on prior scholarship of indigenizing climate change research, this article shares the experience of the workshop to support knowledge exchange and dialogue, with the goal of understanding how to build participatory and non-extractive community-academic partnerships. We reflect on the community values and principles used to guide this workshop to inform more inclusive and co-produced research partnerships, and pedagogies that can improve and assist the self-determination of groups impacted by climate change. Workshop presentations and discussions highlight interconnected themes of resources, systems & structures, regulatory imbalance, and resilience that underpin climate resettlement. We reflect on the narratives presented by members of both Indigenous tribes and NGO partners that illustrate the shortcomings of resettlement planning practices past and present as perpetuating existing inequality. In response to this structured knowledge exchange, we identify potential roles for community-academic partnerships that aim to improve the equity of existing resettlement models. We propose approaches for incorporating traditional knowledge into the pedagogy, discourse, and practice of academic planning programs.

     

巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁

自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。     

Resilience and seismic risk perception at school: a geoethical experiment in Aiello Calabro,southern Italy

The last few years have seen the debate on the geoethics of environmental and climatic protection growing to include resilience as a central idea within this new discipline, which holds many similarities with geography. Resilience analysis often looks at the capacity to re-establish conditions of equilibrium within a system which has been hit by a serious shock, e.g. a natural or man-made disaster. Geoethics works, in tandem with geological analyses and the geography of risk, to inform a population and develop integrated risk management in such a way as to strengthen a community’s resilience. The aim of this work is to study some people’s capacity to overcome what was potentially a disastrous event and, through a process of reconstruction, turn it into an occasion for growth. The experiment, carried out in the primary and middle schools in Aiello Calabro (Calabria, southern Italy), was conducted on the basis of the belief that there is a close relationship between a population’s having a realistic understanding of the risk of such an event, e.g. an earthquake, and high levels of resilience. We also tried to gain an insight into the relationship that may exist between resilience in primary and secondary school children and methods of coping which give an appropriate management of seismic risk. To be more precise, we try to discover whether there is a link between good/appropriate resilience and good/appropriate risk management.

     

Distribution characteristics and factors influencing microbial communities in the core soils of a seawater intrusion area in Longkou City,China

Microbes live throughout the soil profile. Microbial communities in subsurface horizons are impacted by a saltwater–freshwater transition zone formed by seawater intrusion (SWI) in coastal regions. The main purpose of this study is to explore the changes in microbial communities within the soil profile because of SWI. The study characterizes the depth-dependent distributions of bacterial and archaeal communities through high-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons by collecting surface soil and deep core samples at nine soil depths in Longkou City, China. The results showed that although microbial communities were considerably impacted by SWI in both horizontal and vertical domains, the extent of these effects was variable. The soil depth strongly influenced the microbial communities, and the microbial diversity and community structure were significantly different (p < 0.05) at various depths. Compared with SWI, soil depth was a greater influencing factor for microbial diversity and community structure. Furthermore, soil microbial community structure was closely related to the environmental conditions, among which the most significant environmental factors were soil depth, pH, organic carbon, and total nitrogen.

     

Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

Re-specifying disaster risk: concepts,methods, and models

The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters.