泥石流平均流速预测模型及敏感因子研究

为了探求泥石流平均流速敏感因子及影响因素耦合关系,本文采用BP神经网络和支持向量机模型对蒋家沟泥石流数据进行预测,对两种泥石流平均流速预测模型的学习与泛化能力进行比较,并对平均流速各影响因素的敏感程度进行分析,建立了泥石流平均流速敏感因子预测模型。结果表明：支持向量机的泛化能力优于BP网络,更适合样本数量较少的泥石流动态预测。沟道比降和不稳定层厚度是泥石流平均流速的主要影响因子,各因子之间存在复杂的耦合关系。基于不稳定层厚度和泥面比降的泥石流平均流速预测模型精度较高,能够定量描述泥石流动态与影响因子间的响应关系。研究成果可为泥石流防治提供依据。     

碎石土滑坡工程地质特性及防治方案研究

碎石土滑坡已经成为工程建设的主要病害之一。本文从碎石土滑坡发育的工程地质条件出发,通过大量文献研究和工程实践,系统地总结和归纳了碎石土滑坡滑体的物理力学性质和渗透性质,滑带土的颗粒成分、化学成分、微观结构、物理力学性质、遇水弱化性质和渗透性质。根据碎石土滑坡发育的工程地质特性,得到碎石土滑坡的工程地质模型、水文地质模型并提出了防治措施,对于工程实践中碎石土滑坡的稳定性分析和防治方案的设计具有重要的指导意义。     

Stability evaluation and potential damage of a giant paleo-landslide deposit at the East Himalayan Tectonic Junction on the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

A large number of paleo-landslide deposits exist in the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Once these deposits are destroyed, the disaster chain will cause huge damage to life and property and have an impact on local geomorphic evolution. Diverse models are applied to analyze different geological problems of paleo-landslide deposits, which can produce the advantages of different models fully, thereby making up for the shortcomings of poor applicability of a single model in a certain type of problem. In this study, the Baimu paleo-landslide deposit located at the North side of Dongjiuqu Bridge of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is taken as the research object to completely analyze the potential damage by combining various technical means and numerical model, aiming to provide certain reference for the design and construction of the project. Firstly, site investigation and terrain interpretation confirm the existence of local deformation and damage. Secondly, the finite element model based on the strength reduction method is used to analyze the stability of the deposit and determine the potential damage area. For the potential damage area, debris avalanche and debris flow as two disaster transformation modes are considered. The discrete element model and shallow flow model are used to simulate the dynamic process of debris avalanche and debris flow under complex terrain, respectively. The results show that potential debris avalanche or debris flow will accumulate at the mouth of the Baimu gully, and there will be no direct threat to the bridge. Finally, the formation and evolution sequence of the deposit is proposed, which plays an important role in analyzing the evolution of local river geomorphology.

     

Comparison of Two Empirical Models for Gully-Specific Debris Flow Hazard Assessment in Xiaojiang Valley of Southwestern China

Two sets of empirical models for debris flow hazard assessment on gully-specific scale are presented herein, which may be the first step toward developing a formalized procedure for debris flow hazard assessment. Emphasis is put on comparison of the two models between Multiple Factor Composite Assessment Model (MFCAM) and Multivariate Stepwise Regression Assessment Model (MSRAM). From the aspects of data acquisition and model construct, this paper shows the advantages and limitations of two models. From the assessment results, two models are still of uncertainty. Fundamental researches of debris flow hazard, especially the relationship between debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence should be given a priority in future study.     

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with predictions of debris flow runout distances

Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale.     

沟岸侧蚀对泥石流不稳定动力过程的影响

泥石流作为非牛顿体,屈服应力大,运动过程通常不稳定。前人建立了许多模型来研究沟床揭底和堰塞体溃决对泥石流不稳定动力过程的影响,沟岸侧蚀对泥石流不稳定动力过程的影响研究较少。通过侧蚀为主的模型和完全底蚀的模型两种水槽实验的对比,针对泥石流的动力过程展开研究。实验发现两种工况条件下泥石流正应力和孔隙水压力随着龙头高度沿程波动性的增长而相应地波动性增大,但侧蚀作用使得这种波动特征更加明显。通过力学分析,证明侧蚀作用导致泥石流龙头的阻力更大,但是龙身颗粒和龙头颗粒的速度差更大,使得龙头附加坡降更大,因此,侧蚀作用使得泥石流龙头的平均速度更快。泥石流龙头浓度和容重的不断增大,使得阻力不断增大,阻力和动力的动态平衡关系是泥石流不稳定运动的原因之一。     

泥石流本构模型及动力学模拟研究现状综述

由于泥石流动力学过程的复杂性,其本构模型及数值模拟研究仍然存在众多的难点问题。本文根据大量的文献资料和实例研究,对目前泥石流本构模型和动力学模拟研究现状和存在的问题进行了综合论述,主要包括:(1)已有泥石流动力学本构模型原理及适用性问题;(2)已有数值模拟方法的实现及选择应用;(3)泥石流动力学复杂环境效应研究,复杂地形和水文环境条件下的泥石流应力分布、动能传递等。最后对泥石流动力学G IS模拟的前景进行了讨论。     

沟岸侧蚀对泥石流形成和运动过程的影响

沟岸被侧蚀掉的松散物质会通过动量交换将能量传递给龙头,从而影响泥石流的形成和运动过程。前人建立了许多模型来研究泥石流的侵蚀过程对泥石流形成和运动过程的影响,但是模型中大多以底蚀作用为前提条件。通过侧蚀模型和底蚀模型两种水槽实验的对比,针对泥石流的形成和运动过程展开研究。实验发现侧蚀作用更有利于泥石流的形成和运动,泥石流的龙头高度和速度都有波动特征,但侧蚀作用使得这种波动特征更加明显。侧蚀作用使得泥石流的龙身速度更快于龙头速度,龙身颗粒源源不断地堆积于龙头,使得龙头有较大的高度和附加坡降,因此,侧蚀条件下龙头的速度更快。     

山区公路地质灾害减灾决策支持系统——以西藏古乡沟泥石流为例

由于复杂地形条件和地质条件以及降雨、地下水等因素的影响,山区公路易受到泥石流、滑坡、崩塌、溜砂坡等地质灾害的危害。文章在对山区公路地质灾害模型研究和分析的基础上,建立了滑坡稳定性分析、泥石流活动性分析、泥石流危险范围预测与危险性分区、滑坡区公路整治方案优选、拦砂坝优化设计等灾害分析模型和减灾决策模型,通过数据库、分析模型和决策模型的集成,建立了基于组件式GIS的山区公路地质灾害减灾决策支持系统。作为系统应用的实例,文章最后讨论了系统在古乡沟泥石流危险范围预测的应用,预测了一定条件下泥石流堆积扇上的泥深,泥石流运动过程中出现的最大泥深、最大速率、最大动量和最大动能,为古乡沟泥石流的预防和治理提供了科学依据。     

碎屑流与浊流的流体性质及沉积特征研究进展

受浊流沉积模式(即鲍马序列和浊积扇模式)的驱动和浊积岩思维定势的影响,自1970s浊流与浊积岩的概念逐渐扩大,特别是通过"高密度浊流"术语的引入,以及将水下浊流与陆上河流的错误类比,使得一部分碎屑流与底流的沉积被认为是浊积岩。随着现代观测设备的应用以及详细的岩芯观察,碎屑流(特别是砂质碎屑流)和浊流被重新认识。浊流是一种具牛顿流变性质和紊乱状态的沉积物重力流,其沉积物支撑机制是湍流。碎屑流是一种具塑性流变性质和层流状态的沉积物重力流,其沉积物支撑机制主要是基质强度和颗粒间的摩擦强度。浊流沉积具特征的正粒序韵律结构,底部为突变接触而顶部为渐变接触;碎屑流沉积一般具上、下两层韵律结构,即下部发育具平行碎屑结构的层流段,上部发育具块状层理的"刚性"筏流段。但当碎屑流被周围流体整体稀释改造且改造不彻底时,强碎屑流可变为中—弱碎屑流,相应自下而上可形成逆—正粒序的沉积韵律结构,其中发育有呈漂浮状的石英颗粒和泥质撕裂屑等碎屑颗粒,明显区别于浊流沉积单一的正粒序韵律结构特征。碎屑流沉积顶、底部均为突变接触。浊流的沉积模式为简单的具平坦盆底的坡底模式,而碎屑流则为复杂的斜坡模式。     

The experimental debris flows in the Chemolgan river basin

Debris flows are one of the most dangerous and common hydrological phenomena in mountainous regions. They are extremely various in their type and character, but they are always mountain flows consisting of a mixture of water and loose-fragmental debris. The problem of calculation and forecasting the mudflows still remains intractable. There are several reasons for that: Firstly, the representatives of the whole spectrum of the Earth Sciences (Hydrology, Geology, Geomorphology, Geography, Mechanics, Rheology) deal with this problem from their point of view. Secondly, systematic monitoring of passing debris flows are currently held only in several countries only (USA, Canada, Austria, Switzerland, Japan, China), because they require significant funding. Thirdly, the calculation methods, having been accepted for the present time, give certain errors. In this article, the results of the artificially triggered debris flow experiments conducted in 1972–1976 in the Chemolgan river basin, organized by the Kazakh Research Hydrometeorological Institute are described. These were the first full-scale experiments with the detailed recording of the numerous debris flows characteristics ever conducted. The movie is attached as supplementary material to the Editorial of the Special Issue. The information about the used measurement equipment, the obtained characteristics of debris flows, the debris flow classification accepted as a result of the experiments is given. Conducting such experiments in nature allowed us to assess various aspects of the formation of these natural phenomena and made it possible to build the mathematical models of the debris flow processes.     

泥石流成因机理的非饱和土力学理论研究

泥石流是一种具有较强破坏力的自然山地灾害。对于它的预报研究历来为人们所重视，并建立了很多雨量预报模型。然而，这些雨量预报模型的预报时间很短，往往只能在灾害发生前几十分钟作出预报。论文应用非饱和土强度理论对降雨型泥石漉的成园机理进行了研究，提出降雨型泥石流的形成过程可以划分为2个阶段：第一个阶段与前期实效降雨量有关；第二个阶段与短历时强降雨有关。并对各个阶段降雨作用机理以及固体松散物质的力学性质变化特征进行探讨。为预先判断在降雨条件下，会不会发生泥石流以及所需要的降雨量和雨型提供依据。     

Debris-flow event in the Frangerello Stream-Susa Valley (Italy)—calibration of numerical models for the back analysis of the 16 October, 2000 rainstorm

Three debris-flow simulation model software have been applied to the back analysis of a typical alpine debris flow that caused significant deposition on an urbanized alluvial fan. Parameters used in the models were at first retrieved from the literature and then adjusted to fit field evidence. In the case where different codes adopted the same parameters, the same input values were used, and comparable outputs were obtained. Results of the constitutive laws used (Bingham rheology, Voellmy fluid rheology and a quadratic rheology formulation which adds collisional and turbulent stresses to the Bingham law) indicate that no single rheological model appears to be valid for all debris flows. The three applied models appear to be capable of reasonable reproduction of debris-flow events, although with different levels of detail. The study shows how different software can be used to predict the debris-flow motion for various purposes from a first screening, to predict the runout distance and deposition of the solid material and to the different behaviour of the mixtures of flows with variation of maximum solid concentration.     

Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling

Taiwan is a mountainous country, so there is an ever present danger of landslide disasters during the rainy seasons or typhoons. This study aims to develop a fuzzy-rule-based risk assessment model for debris flows and to verify the accuracy of risk assessment so as to help related organizations reduce losses caused by debris flows. The database is comprised of information from actual cases of debris flows that occurred in the Hualien area of Taiwan from 2007 to 2008. The established models can assess the likelihood of the occurrence of debris flows using computed indicators, verify modeling errors, and make comparisons between the existing models for practical applications. In the establishment of a fuzzy-based debris flow risk assessment model, possible for accounting it on the basis of far less information regarding a real system and the information can be of an uncertain, fuzzy or inexact character, the influential factors affecting debris flows include the average terrain slope, catchment area, effective catchment area, accumulated rainfall, rainfall intensity, and geological conditions. The results prove that the risk assessment model systems are quite suitable for debris flow risk assessment, with a resultant ratio of success 96?% and a normalized relative error 4.63?%.     

冰碛湖溃决泥石流流量计算方法

冰碛湖溃决泥石流是高山高寒地区一种常见的灾害类型,虽爆发频率低,但造成的危害极大,该类型的泥石流防治是区域开发建设中必须要面对的问题,而流量计算又是其核心问题之一。以西藏地区近100 a以来的冰碛湖溃决实例为基础,探讨了溃口深度的计算方法;以逐渐溃决模型和配方法为基础,分析了冰碛湖溃决泥石流的容重峰值流量与洪峰演进计算方法的适用性与流程;通过案例的对比研究,探讨了计算模型参数率定与误差来源。结果表明：瞬间溃决模型高估了冰碛湖溃决泥石流的峰值流量,泥石流的预测值偏保守;而逐渐溃决模型更接近于冰碛湖溃决的物理机制,在冰川U型谷内,可不考虑泥石流的堵塞作用,泥石流的峰值流量预测值与实测值较吻合;在冰川U型谷外或近沟口段则需考虑泥石流的堵塞作用。文中提出的计算模型作为冰碛湖溃决泥石流防治工程参数设计的依据是可行的。     

乌东德地区泥石流危险范围预测模型

为了更加客观、准确地预测泥石流的危险范围,在前人研究经验和大量野外考察的基础上,选取多项泥石流重要影响因素,对乌东德地区上百条泥石流按照其堆积区规模分组进行多元回归分析,得到不同类型泥石流中各影响因素对堆积区形态参数的预测模型。通过不断改变步长的方式搜索适用于一个地区泥石流危险范围预测的数学模型,运用计算机搜索大量可能的数学模型,通过平均误差计算比较得到最优预测模型。将该方法和文献[3]的逐步回归分析方法一起应用到乌东德地区的实例上进行验证,预测结果显示,后者得到的误差要比本文方法计算的误差大很多,本文方法的预测误差为6.7%～9.2%,文献[3]方法的预测误差为10.5%～29.6%。     

中巴经济走廊泥石流活动性分析 ——以中巴公路奥布段为例

中巴经济走廊内的中巴公路奥布段泥石流频发且类型复杂,严重影响着安全出行和贸易流通。在对中巴公路奥布段沿线泥石流沟谷纵剖面形态分析的基础上,揭示其形态指数特征和活动程度,并从区域地形、地质和气象等因素方面探讨了泥石流的活动性差异成因及危害性。研究发现：公路沿线泥石流类型主要包括冰川型和降雨型两种,冰川型泥石流为27条,降雨型为26条。冰川型泥石流活动性强烈,形态指数N ≥ 1的沟谷占冰川型沟谷总数的81%,多数沟谷形态呈下凹状;降雨型泥石流活动性相对较弱,形态指数N ≥ 1的沟谷占其总数的50%,沟谷形态多呈上凸状。研究区大落差地形、不同物源供给和充沛水源条件等对泥石流的发育和活动具有重要影响,也是不同类型泥石流活动性差异的控制因素。研究结果可为研究区泥石流预测和防治提供指导,也可为中巴经济走廊区内交通工程选线和泥石流防治提供参考。     

Debris flows in the Swiss National Park: the influence of different flow models and varying DEM grid size on modeling results

In the Swiss National Park, debris flows are a frequent phenomenon and have repeatedly affected highways and hiking structures. In this study, we first investigated the main characteristics and dimensions of current debris flows by field work and empirical parameterization schemes. Additionally, we evaluated a topography-based flow-trajectory geographic information system model (MSF) and a flow-routing model (FLO-2D) in terms of debris flow-affected areas. Three generically different digital elevation models (DEM) with grid spacing of 25, 4, and 1 m were used in conjunction with the flow models. The evaluation of the DEM grid spacing shows that for both flow models the 25-m DEM can give an approximate estimation of the potential hazard zone. Four- and one-meter DEMs mostly confine the simulated debris flow to existing channels and are in accordance with observations of recent debris-flow events. The study shows that DEM quality and grid resolution are crucial for the resulting delineation of potentially affected areas and thus for hazard assessment and mapping.     

Machine Learning Based Predictive Modeling of Debris Flow Probability Following Wildfire in the Intermountain Western United States

It has been recognized that wildfire, followed by large precipitation events, triggers both flooding and debris flows in mountainous regions. The ability to predict and mitigate these hazards is crucial in protecting public safety and infrastructure. A need for advanced modeling techniques was highlighted by re-evaluating existing prediction models from the literature. Data from 15 individual burn basins in the intermountain western United States, which contained 388 instances and 26 variables, were obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). After randomly selecting a subset of the data to serve as a validation set, advanced predictive modeling techniques, using machine learning, were implemented using the remaining training data. Tenfold cross-validation was applied to the training data to ensure nearly unbiased error estimation and also to avoid model over-fitting. Linear, nonlinear, and rule-based predictive models including naïve Bayes, mixture discriminant analysis, classification trees, and logistic regression models were developed and tested on the validation dataset. Results for the new non-linear approaches were nearly twice as successful as those for the linear models, previously published in debris flow prediction literature. The new prediction models advance the current state-of-the-art of debris flow prediction and improve the ability to accurately predict debris flow events in wildfire-prone intermountain western United States.     

渤中25-1油田沙三段重力流沉积模式及油气地质意义

运用最新重力流沉积理论,以钻井岩芯、地震资料为基础,系统研究了渤海海域渤中25-1油田沙三段重力流沉积特征、类型、岩相组合、砂体空间展布特征以及沉积模式。结果表明,研究区主要发育滑塌重力流、砂质碎屑流、浊流3种重力流沉积类型,并构成5种典型的岩相组合,包括湖相细粒沉积与滑塌重力流组合（MS）、砂质碎屑流与滑塌重力流组合（DS）、砂质碎屑流与浊流组合（DT）、浊流与砂质碎屑流组合（TD）、湖相细粒沉积与浊流组合（MT）。研究区重力流沉积具有"源-坡-断-流"联控的"滑塌-砂质碎屑流-浊流"沉积过程与发育模式,其中砂质碎屑流砂体呈舌状体分布,浊流砂体则具有朵状体形态特征。储层综合评价表明,砂质碎屑流砂体粒度粗、宽厚比小、泥质含量低、物性好,是优质的重力流储层类型。对不同重力流类型沉积特征、展布形态以及储层性质的精细研究,对深水优质砂岩储层的预测具有重要的指导意义。