青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

地球γ射线闪(TGFs)及其物理机制研究进展

根据卫星、地面、飞机和气球的探测结果,TGFs和与雷暴、闪电过程有关的高能辐射现象可以大致分为2类:持续时间为毫秒量级的短时间高能辐射,一般认为多数可能与闪电有关;持续时间为几秒甚至更长的长时间高能辐射,一般认为可能与雷暴有关.对已有的TGFs和与雷暴、闪电有关的高能辐射现象的观测事实、理论探索和数值模拟方面的进展进行简要的回顾,并提出目前尚未解决的问题.     

Audible thunder characteristic and the relation between peak frequency and lightning parameters

In recent summers, some natural lightning optical spectra and audible thunder signals were observed. Twelve events on 15 August 2008 are selected as samples since some synchronizing information about them are obtained, such as lightning optical spectra, surface E-field changes, etc. By using digital filter and Fourier transform, thunder frequency spectra in observation location have been calculated. Then the two main propagation effects, finite amplitude propagation and attenuation by air, are calculated. Upon that we take the test thunder frequency spectra and work backward to recalculate the original frequency spectra near generation location. Thunder frequency spectra and the frequency distribution varying with distance are researched. According to the theories on plasma, the channel temperature and electron density are further calculated by transition parameters of lines in lightning optical spectra. Pressure and the average ionization degree of each discharge channel are obtained by using Saha equations, charge conservation equations and particle conservation equations. Moreover, the relationship between the peak frequency of each thunder and channel parameters of the lightning is studied.     

1961-2013年青海高原雷暴日数及雷电灾害变化特征研究

利用青海省48个测站雷暴、 雷电灾害监测资料, 分析了1961-2013年青海全省雷暴日数、 1997-2014年雷电灾害气候特征及其变化趋势. 结果表明: 青海省年雷暴日数在2.3～73.8 d之间, 两个高值中心分别在囊谦及祁连山的大通, 而两个低值中心在冷湖和西宁. 多雷区分布在三江源大部、 青海高原东北部大部, 而柴达木盆地为雷暴低发区. 青海高原雷暴日数分布特征为自东南向西北随纬度增加而逐渐减少, 各地区雷暴日数减少趋势非常显著, 三江源尤为突出. 全省大部分地区经历了增加-减少-增加-减少的演变规律; 各地雷暴的年内分布呈单峰型, 雷暴主要发生在5-9月, 主要集中在 6-8月, 最早出现在1月, 最晚出现在11月. 全省平均初雷日为4月16日, 最早初雷暴日为1月9日, 平均终雷暴日为9月15日, 最晚终雷暴日为11月28日. 青海省雷电灾害次数以微弱的次数增加, 直接经济损失、 人员伤亡也呈增加趋势, 家用、 办公电子电器设备损失呈增加趋势, 而电力设备、 建筑物、 交通、 金融等行业发生的次数、 损失呈下降趋势.     

我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析

为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程,在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上,分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征,包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用,得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关;雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的,同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同,雷击死亡人数在农田最多,而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全,其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。     

Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis

Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived. The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning, calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters. The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed databases.     

One step back for a leap forward: toward operational measurements of elements at risk

This study presents the evaluation of 1 year of operational lightning forecasts provided for Europe, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a cloud-top height-based lightning parameterization scheme. Three different convective parameterization schemes were employed for parameterizing sub-grid cloud-top heights and consequently driving the lightning scheme. Triggering of the lightning scheme was controlled by means of a model-resolved microphysics-based masking filter, while the formulation for deriving lightning flash rates was also modified, assuming a single “marine” equation instead of the original equations discriminating between continental and marine lightning. Gridded lightning observations were used for evaluating model performance on a dichotomous decision basis. Analysis showed that the lightning scheme is sensitive to the parameterization of convection. In particular, the Kain–Fritsch convective scheme was found to outperform the Grell–Devenyi and Grell–Freitas schemes, showing a statistically significant better performance with respect to lightning prediction. This was most evident during the warm season, while smaller differences among the schemes were recorded during the cold season. Further, for all examined convective schemes, it was found that the application of the masking filter is desirable for improving model performance in terms of lightning forecasting. Last, the reported results revealed that the refinement of the formulation of the lightning parameterization scheme, adhering to a “global” marine equation instead of distinguishing between land and sea lightning, may be necessary in order to obtain reliable lightning forecasts.     

岩心钻探作业雷电防范措施浅析

岩心钻探作业作为地质勘查一种重要手段,其作业场所大多位于郊区或野外,作业所使用的钻机、钻塔及其附属件几乎全部为金属构件,其设备在地面上相对位置凸出,极易遭受雷电袭击,在当前钻探作业中,雷电防范未能引起施工队伍的足够重视,在防雷设施使用和安装上存在不少问题。通过运用雷电防范原理分析钻探设备防雷系统,对岩心钻探作业的防雷措施作讨论,以便为钻探施工队伍正确使用各种防雷方法作参考。     

青海高原2008-2016年云地闪特征分析

利用2008-2016年青海省云地闪监测网资料,分析了云地闪特征。结果表明：2008-2016年青海高原云地闪次数呈现逐年增加的趋势;各年正云地闪比例在10.1%~19.8%之间,平均正云地闪比例为15.0%,且春季和秋季明显高于夏季;总云地闪平均电流强度为30.3 kA,正云地闪平均电流强度为50.1 kA,负云地闪平均电流强度为27.2 kA;负云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现双峰双谷的分布特征,正云地闪月平均峰值电流呈现单峰单谷的特征;正负云地闪电流强度频次分布均呈现正态分布的特征;云地闪电流强度幅值频次累积概率分布服从IEEE Std 1243-1997推荐的雷电流累积概率分布模型;云地闪平均陡度为7.3 kA·us^-1,正云地闪平均陡度为7.8 kA·us^-1,负云地闪平均陡度为7.2 kA·us^-1;云地闪在夏季（6-8月）发生较为频繁,占总闪电的81.0%,其次是秋季（9-11月）,占总闪电的13.5%,夏季和秋季云地闪电占全年闪电的94.5%;云地闪的日变化呈现单峰单谷的特征;总云地闪年均最大密度达10.4次·km^-2·a^-1,正云地闪年均最大密度达2.1次·km^-2·a^-1,负云地闪年均最大密度达10.3次·km^-2·a^-1,总云地闪和负云地闪的密度高值区在西宁、大通和湟中一带,正云地闪的密度高值区在玛沁和同德一带。     

The current status of lightning safety knowledge and the effects of lightning education modes on college students

Lightning is a natural hazard occurring frequently within the United States causing injury, damage, and death. To avoid this hazard, citizens need to self-mitigate their risk by taking action. The level of lightning safety knowledge must be known to determine if citizens have the tools to mitigate their risk. No studies have previously explored the status of lightning safety knowledge or the best way to educate about lightning safety. Therefore, the research community is unaware if citizens understand their risk and have the knowledge to mitigate their risk, or if current safety programs are effectively educating citizens. This study distributed two surveys to college students in Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. Following the pre-mode survey, students were shown videos, given brochures, or both with lightning safety information. A follow-up survey was then distributed. Participants were found to have a moderate level of lightning safety knowledge. Study areas of variable risk as well as past death rates were not found to affect the rate of knowledge. The presence of education programs were not affected by the variable risk. Misunderstood areas of lightning safety knowledge were associated mostly with the lightning and thunder relationship as well as safety before and after a thunderstorm. The education modes involving a video were the most effective at increasing knowledge. Gender displayed minor differences in gaining of lightning safety knowledge.     

Lightning fatalities in Colombia from 2000 to 2009

National lightning fatality information has been gathered and published for Australia, Canada, the USA, and Western Europe, but few such studies have taken place and been published in the formal literature during the last decade in other areas. National lightning fatality data are difficult to collect in many countries, especially in tropical regions, despite a high frequency of lightning. To partially fill this gap, the current paper provides the first comprehensive national summary of lightning deaths in Colombia. Data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics were gathered for 2000 through 2009 and were classified according to the number of fatalities by year, month, gender, age, and location of the fatality. These data were assigned to geographical departments to determine the fatality rates per type of population. Comparison was also made with the population percentage in rural areas where the outdoor lightning risk may be greater than in cities due to labor-intensive agricultural practices, housing that is unsafe from the lightning threat, lack of access to weather forecasts and lightning safety knowledge, and other factors. Data from an international lightning locating system also were used to determine the annual lightning frequency and monthly totals in Colombia. During the ten study years, 757 deaths were identified. The highest mortality rates were in rural areas with a maximum of 7.69 deaths per million per year in the Vaupes Department of eastern Colombia. The death rate for all of Colombia was 1.78 per million per year during the same period.     

Evidence for the production of hydrogen peroxide in rainwater by lightning during thunderstorms

Rain samples were collected sequentially from individual events at a site in Miami, Florida, USA, from April 1995 to October 1996, and analyzed for H₂O₂, major anions, pH, temperature, and rainfall amounts. The measurements showed that in the absence of lightning, the concentration of H₂O₂, like that of sulfate and other conservative constituents, either remained fairly constant or decreased as a function of time during the storms depending on whether rainout or washout process was the dominant pathway for the removal of atmospheric H₂O₂. However, during the course of several thunderstorms, H₂O₂ concentration increased significantly with time, whereas the concentration of sulfate and other conservative constituents remained fairly constant or decreased as a function of time. These observations indicate that substantial amounts of H₂O₂ in rainwater were produced by lightning activities during thunderstorms. Possible mechanisms are proposed here.     

Anomalous electric field changes and high flash rate beneath a thunderstorm in northeast India

In spite of many experimental and theoretical studies the relationships between storm dynamics, severe weather, and lightning activity have been least understood. Measurements of electric field made under a severe thunderstorm at a northeastern Indian station, Guwahati, India are reported. Lightning flash rate increases drastically to about 84 flashes per minute (fpm) during the active stage which lasted for about 7 minutes, from about 15 flashes per minute during the initial phase of thunderstorm. Sudden increase in lightning flash rate (‘lightning jump’) of about 65 fpm/min is also observed in the beginning of the active stage. The dissipating stage is marked by slow and steady decrease in lightning frequency. Despite very high flash rate during the active stage, no severe weather conditions are observed at the ground. It is proposed that the short duration of the active stage might be the reason for the non-observance of severe weather conditions at the ground. Analysis of Skew-t graph at Guwahati suggests that vertical distribution of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) also may play some role in non-occurrence of severe weather at ground in spite of large lightning flash rate and lightning jump observed in this thunderstorm. Further, all electric field changes after a lightning discharge indicates the presence of strong Lower Positive Charge Centers (LPCC) in the active and dissipation stages. This suggests that LPCC plays an important role in initiation of lightning discharges in these stages.     

Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.     

Risk of injury and death from lightning in Northern Malawi

Rates of lightning mortality in communities on the western shore of Lake Malawi are higher than any other reported rate in the world: 419 strike victims per million people per annum and 84 deaths per million per annum. To document the background to this phenomenon, we conducted comprehensive household interviews with surviving victims and witnesses of every case of lightning strike in seven administrative areas around Nkhata Bay, Malawi. We find that the consequential lightning strikes are significantly more common in the rainy season and during the morning. Among those victims struck by lightning, there is an average ratio of approximately one death to four injuries, which is substantially higher than the commonly accepted ratio of 1:10. Children and adults are at equal risk of being struck. If struck, the probability of death is greater when the victim is outside in the open or outside under cover than indoors under a tin or thatched roof, but is unaffected by different kinds of footwear or whether it is raining. Reported explanations for strikes often center on witchcraft or other forms of social conflict. Our findings extend the study of consequential lightning strikes in the developing world and highlight cultural factors associated with this hazard. We end with recommendations for reducing the risk of lightning for rural populations.     

Spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground lightning over the northwest Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010–2015

The spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning covering the period 2010–2015 over the northwest Iberian Peninsula were investigated. The analysis conducted employed three main methods: the circulation weather types developed by Jenkinson and Collison, the fit of a generalized additive model (GAM) for geographic variables, and the use of a concentration index for the ratio of lightning strikes and thunderstorm days. The main activity in the summer months can be attributed to situations with eastern or anticyclonic flow due to convection by insolation. In winter, lightning proves to have a frontal origin and is mainly associated with western or cyclonic flow situations which occur with advections of air masses of maritime origin. The largest number of CG discharges occurs under eastern flow and their hybrids with anticyclonic situations. Thunderstorms with greater CG lightning activity, highlighted by a higher concentration index, are located in areas with a higher density of lightning strikes, above all in mountainous areas away from the sea. The modeling of lightning density with geographic variables shows the positive influence of altitude and, particularly, distance to the sea, with nonlinear relationships due to the complex orography of the region. Likewise, areas with convex topography receive more lightning strikes than concave ones, a relation which has been demonstrated for the first time from a GAM.     

Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009

Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations.     

The effect of El Nino and La Nina on lightning activity: its relation with meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters

The decadal variation of lightning activity over Northeast India (NEI) from the year 2002 to 2011 is studied with the help of satellite-based lightning imaging sensor (LIS) data. An anomalous 56 % increase in lightning activity is observed in the year 2010 with respect to the previous years. To investigate the reason behind this increase, the LIS data are analyzed with several meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters. These parameters are convective sources of cloud ice, cloud top temperature, surface temperature, convective precipitation rate and total ice water content and convective available potential energy. On a synoptic scale, the period of anomalous lightning activity could be related to the development of an El Nino event at the middle of 2009 that broke down in the early months of the next year with a rapid transition to La Nina by August 2010. Analyses expose that El Nino Southern Oscillation might have diversely modified the local meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters. It comes out that this rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina condition could be the possible reason behind the dramatic increase in lightning activity, which was not previously documented over NEI.     

A study of lightning activity over land and oceanic regions of India

Monthly variations of lightning activity over typical land and oceanic regions of India were examined using satellite data (OTD) for a 5-year period (1995–1999). It is noted that the nature of variation between surface air maximum temperature (T _max), thunderstorm days (Th_n), and lightning flash count over ER and WR showed remarkable correspondence and sensitivity with each other on monthly time scale. As we move out of winter season and enter the monsoon season, via pre-monsoon season, the WR undergoes cooling relative to the ER in the range 0.1–1.2°C. As a result, WR experiences reduction of thunder days and lowering in flash count. This decrease in T _max, Th_n, and flash count over WR may also be associated with relatively small values of T _θw and CAPE in comparison with similar values over ER during the monsoon season. Our observation of associated reduction in Th_n and lightning count per 1°C cooling in surface air maximum temperature suggests reduction of ∼3.5 thunderstorms per station and 73 flashes. Comparison of lightning flashes between pairs of coastal, oceanic, arid-zone, hilly, and island stations reveals distinct relationship between climate regime and intensity of lightning activity. We may conclude the results of this study by saying that the overhead lightning activity is a clear reflection of the status of the underlying ground-earth properties. A close and continuous monitoring of lightning activity may be considered as a need of present day scientific studies.