基于“源－汇”理念的黔中“两湖一库”地区土地利用变化及驱动力分析

“两湖一库”是典型的喀斯特高原湖泊,湖库周边生态环境极为脆弱,其土地利用变化对所在区域生态安全/供水安全及社会经济发展带来重要影响。基于“源－汇”理念和黔中“两湖一库”地区1998－2018年4期遥感解译数据,采用土地利用动态度模型分析近20年来“两湖一库”地区土地利用动态演变规律,并运用定量与定性分析相结合的方法探究其驱动力。结果表明:（1）1998－2018年建设用地、林地、未利用土地（主要为暂时性未利用土地）面积不断增加,水域面积波动减少,耕地、草地面积持续减少,其中建设用地和未利用土地在各时段均为变化最活跃的地类。（2）年均综合土地利用动态度由1998－2008年的1.33%提高至2008－2013年的2.4%和2013－2018年的2.3%。近10年各地类间的相互转换较10年前更为活跃。（3）主要的土地利用“源－汇”转换关系表现为耕地转为林地和建设用地、草地转为林地和耕地。（4）各地类加速向建设用地转换,建成区面积迅速扩张,“两湖一库”供水压力进一步增大。（5）人口压力、经济发展等因素是“两湖一库”地区建设用地扩张的主要驱动因素,政策因素对林地和水域面积变化有重要影响。研究结果可以为“两湖一库”地区土地利用、规划及社会－经济－生态协调发展提供参考。      

不同土地利用方式下土壤CO2时空分布特征及其影响因素——以湘西大龙洞地下河流域为例

为了解不同土地利用方式/覆被条件土壤剖面CO2时空分布特征及其影响因素,对湖南湘西大龙洞地下河流域的4种土地利用方式（林地、草地、玉米地、烟叶地）土壤不同深度的CO2浓度进行为期一年的观测。结果显示,不同土地利用方式的土壤CO2表现为草地(7 527 mg/m3)>林地(7 197 mg/m3)>烟叶地（4 562 mg/m3）>玉米地(4 414 mg/m3);随剖面深度加大,草地和玉米地土壤CO2呈先增大后稳定的趋势,林地和烟叶地则表现为先增大后降低的趋势;时间变化上,不同土地利用方式下的土壤CO2月均浓度曲线与气温的变化曲线有很好的对应性,表现为2-8月浓度升高,8-12月降低,12月至次年2月为小幅下降,土壤CO2浓度的最低值和最高值分别出现在2月和8月。相关性分析显示,气温对土壤CO2浓度的影响最显著,此外,不同土地利用方式下有机碳的差异,与气温相耦合的降雨因素等都对土壤CO2浓度变化有重要影响。      

贵阳市城镇化进程与土地利用转变关系

贵阳市岩溶地貌十分发育,可利用土地资源缺乏,城镇化发展与土地利用相互制约.基于贵阳市2001~2014年城镇化指标数据及1996、2001、2004、2009、2016年五期遥感影像数据,采用指标权重法和土地利用类型转移矩阵,分析了2001~2014年贵阳市城镇化发展趋势和1996~2016年土地利用的时空分布特征及演变规律.并运用相关性分析方法建立函数响应度模型,探讨了城镇化与土地利用之间的作用关系.结果表明:（1）2001~2014年间,贵阳市城镇化水平呈上升趋势,综合城镇化得分增长率为52.46%,其中人口（26.0%）、生态（20.4%）、空间（19.9%）和经济（18.3%）城镇化对综合城镇化贡献较大,社会（15.4%）城镇化相对较小;（2）贵阳市农用地、建设用地面积增加,净增长总量23.66%,未利用土地面积减少,净减少总量23.56%,土地利用类型总变化量为87.77%;（3）城镇化进程推动着土地利用的变迁,2001~2014年水田（13.767响应度）、裸地（4.476）、旱地（1.708）、灌木（1.319）土地利用类型对城镇化的综合响应度较高,乔木（0.897）、草地（0.878）、建设用地（0.693）、水域（0.180）相对较低.城镇用地面积的快速扩张是土地利用类型转变的直接因素.因此,建议在城镇化进程中,优化土地利用结构,以提高土地资源利用效率,保证城镇化进程可持续发展.      

Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities

Land use change models are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use models can support land use planning and policy. Numerous land use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future land use change modelling research. This discussion is based on six concepts important to land use modelling: (1) Level of analysis; (2) Cross-scale dynamics; (3) Driving forces; (4) Spatial interaction and neighbourhood effects; (5) Temporal dynamics; and (6) Level of integration. For each of these concepts an overview is given of the variety of methods used to implement these concepts in operational models. It is concluded that a lot of progress has been made in building land use change models. However, in order to incorporate more aspects important to land use modelling it is needed to develop a new generation of land use models that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the land use system, implement new techniques to quantify neighbourhood effects, explicitly deal with temporal dynamics and achieve a higher level of integration between disciplinary approaches and between models studying urban and rural land use changes. If these requirements are fulfilled models will better support the analysis of land use dynamics and land use policy formulation.     

城镇化背景下欠发达县域土地利用结构与经济绩效关联度及优化分析——以江西上饶市万年县为例

基于信息熵模型和多因素加权法研究万年县土地利用结构有序度以及土地经济绩效变化趋势,通过灰色关联度模型分析两者的关联度。结果表明:万年县的土地利用结构日趋合理,土地经济绩效日益增长;土地利用结构与经济绩效存在最显著相关性的一级地类是交通运输用地,二级地类是公路用地;从2011~2017年石镇镇、梓埠镇、青云镇、汪家乡、苏桥乡、上坊乡六个乡镇的公路用地占各乡镇土地总面积的比例增量较少,经济增长比排名靠后,需要调整土地结构,加大对公路用地的投入。研究成果可为区域土地利用结构优化提供参考,为欠发达县域的经济发展提供指导建议。     

甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析

以甘肃省1949-2012年统计数据为基础数据, 分析了甘肃省64 a来耕地面积变化的特点, 计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数, 并运用GM(1, 1)模型预测未来15 a耕地压力指数变化. 结果表明: 1949-2012年的64 a时间里, 耕地面积增加了1.67×10⁴ hm², 最小人均耕地面积减少了0.526 hm², 耕地压力指数减少了0.951. 2012年14个地级市耕地压力指数差异大, 河西走廊大部分地区、 陇东、 陇南耕地压力指数低, 中部地区耕地压力指数高, 甘南地区耕地压力指数最高. 预测结果表明, 未来15 a甘肃耕地压力指数呈微弱的下降趋势, 耕地压力严峻.     

贵州镇远县耕地土壤中硒的分布特征及控制因素

依据镇远县耕地质量地球化学调查成果,对全县耕地表层土壤硒分布特征和控制因素进行了分析。结果显示:镇远县耕地土壤硒含量平均值为(0.64±0.56) mg/kg,富硒耕地硒含量平均值为(0.72±0.42) mg/kg,富硒耕地面积占总耕地面积的82.71%。全县耕地土壤硒含量受pH值、海拔、地形地貌、成土母岩、土壤类型和土地利用类型的影响,统计发现:偏酸性耕地、海拔800 m以下耕地、分布在槽沟和谷地的耕地、碳质岩系地层分布区耕地、粗骨土和红壤分布区、茶园和水田表层土壤均具有相对较高的硒含量。分析认为成土母岩是土壤硒的最重要来源,其对土壤中硒元素含量具有控制作用,尤以含碳硅质岩系最为明显,另外土壤有机质及pH值通过改变土壤理化性质深刻影响着硒的迁移及富集,进而影响土壤硒含量。     

Marginal land and the global land rush: A spatial exploration of contested lands and state-directed development in contemporary Ethiopia

The ‘global land rush’ or ‘global land grabbing’ phenomena has prompted concerns over the potential of large-scale land acquisitions to displace rural populations and impact food security in lesser-developed countries. State actors often assert that lands being leased to investors are ‘marginal’, ‘wasteland’, ‘barren’, or ‘unused’ without explicitly stating the criteria that are used to classify those spaces. Using Ethiopia as a case study, this paper synthesizes semi-structured interviews and geospatial land-use data to unpack the federal government’s notion of ‘marginal land’ to investigate how land qualifies for deposition into a federal land bank set aside for future investment and the agro-ecological characteristics and human-environment interactions endemic to these areas. We find that government officials conceive land bank areas to be generally fertile but currently ‘unused’. In reality, we find land bank areas: (1) are used by pastoralists or rural people practicing land extensive forms of cultivation that are only loosely integrated into the Ethiopian state, (2) overlap with protected areas such as National Parks, and (3) are located in places that have surface water resources the government intends to use for large-scale development such as irrigation or hydropower projects. We argue that the intended land uses of banked lands serve not only to fulfill larger development objectives but also increase state-accessible product produced in these areas strengthening the link between ‘othering’ labels, development, and state-making in the context of the global land rush.     

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究旨在从典型区域角度揭示土地利用变化背后的真正动因及其作用机理,进而动态模拟、预测区域土地利用变化过程。土地利用系统的自组织性及其内驱动因子作用的复杂性,决定了其研究必须与某一特定区域相联系,以便确定合适的可定量指标来体现外生驱动因子的驱动效果。系统地识别土地利用系统在不同控制状态下的驱动因子及其多种时空尺度效应,建立具有综合模拟的区域土地利用变化动态模型,能减少土地利用系统通常受临界值域和突变所左右的局面。区域土地利用变化驱动因子识别、区域土地利用变化驱动机制分析、区域土地利用变化驱动过程模拟等的研究现状表明,为更好地理解区域土地利用变化的机制和原因,测度现有及未来土地利用变化的速率、过程和地点,支持政府相关决策的制定与实施,促使区域土地利用变化向有利于人类的方向发展,区域土地利用变化驱动力分析应优先考虑以下研究领域：①驱动力因子识别及其作用效应的尺度依赖性;②驱动力因子的贡献量化及其在具体区域的非均一分布;③驱动力因子作用过程的自然反馈机制模型化。 [HT5H]关〓键〓词：[HT5K]     

基于植物多样性恢复和保护的石漠化土地整理模式——以贵州撒拉溪和花江示范区为例

本文选取贵州毕节撒拉溪与关岭-贞丰花江示范区为研究对象,通过植物多样性和土地利用调查,掌握示范区植物种类、分布状况和生长特性,土地利用状况以及土地整理程度,选育植物先锋物种,结合模式构建的理论依据和边界条件,根据石漠化土地整理工程分区治理方法,在生态型土地整理技术体系的指导下,针对两个示范区具体情况分别提出温凉喀斯特高原山地潜在-轻度石漠化土地整理与混农林业复合经营模式和干热喀斯特高原峡谷中-强度石漠化土地整理与特色经果林集约经营模式。结果表明:(1)植物多样性本底调查是基于植物多样性恢复与保护的石漠化土地整理的基础,项目实施后还应对植物多样性进行动态监测。(2)土地整理规划设计应融入生态理念,构建基于植物多样性恢复和保护的石漠化土地整理模式,有助于生态修复和重建脆弱生态环境:2011-2014年期间,毕节撒拉溪示范区植被覆盖率上升8.51%,无石漠化面积扩大22.53 hm2;关岭-贞丰花江示范区植被覆盖率上升4.47%,无石漠化面积扩大13.2 hm2。(3)模式的构建依托于技术体系,毕节撒拉溪示范区主要采用潜在-轻度石漠化人工种草与草地生态改良丰产栽培技术、以金银花(Lonicera japonica)为主的坡地植物篱保水固土技术等进行模式构建;花江示范区选取以花椒-玉米为主的林粮空间优化配置技术、以皇竹草-苜蓿草为主的草地营养优化配置技术等构建经营模式。      

岩溶山区土地利用方式对土壤活性有机碳及其分布的影响

对重庆中梁山不同土地利用方式下的0～50cm土壤活性有机碳含量和分布进行研究。结果表明:不同利用方式土壤有机碳(SOC)含量大小顺序为:竹林＞菜地＞草地＞林地＞园地＞弃耕地,且均表现为0～20cm层大于20～50cm层;土壤溶解性有机碳(DOC)含量平均值大小顺序为:林地＞竹林＞弃耕地＞草地＞园地＞菜地,土壤溶解性有机碳占土壤有机碳的比例随土层深度增加而增加;土壤易氧化有机碳(EOC)含量及其剖面分布与土壤有机碳含量变化相一致,相关分析表明,两者的相关性达到极显著水平(R=0.852,P＜0.0001),对土壤有机碳变化反应敏感。      

冲洪积平原地面沉降特征及主控因素——以北京平原为例

北京由于长期过量开采地下水,相继引发了一系列地质环境问题,其中地面沉降问题尤为突出。回顾了北京地面沉降发展历史,从平面和垂向上分析了地面沉降特征,在此基础上对北京冲洪积平原区沉降的主控因素进行了研究。结果表明:(1)平面上,沉降分为南、北2个大区,7个沉降中心。北区已由多个单独沉降中心区扩展成一个大区域,南区北扩明显;(2)垂向上,南区第一压缩层为沉降主贡献层,沉降占比42%,浅部地层沉降速率减小,深部地层沉降速率增加。土体变形特征为塑性变形,包含蠕变变形;北区第二压缩层为沉降主贡献层,沉降占比65%,浅部沉降量值很小且波动平缓,深部沉降量相对较大。土体变形特征为浅部以弹性变形为主,深部以塑性变形为主,包含蠕变变形;(3)沉降受构造作用及基底格架控制,北东方向受冲洪积扇上部单一砂卵砾石的地层条件控制扩展范围有限,沉降整体向北西、南东方向扩张;(4)地层结构决定沉降平面和垂向分布特征,尤其北部冲洪积与南部湖相沉积的差异,是产生深浅部地层沉降贡献率不同的重要因素;(5)地下水开采仍是沉降产生的主因,地下水漏斗的扩展和沉降中心的分布高度吻合,主要沉降层地下水位下降速率与沉降速率成正比。     

新疆喀什噶尔河流域1990-2010年土地利用/覆被及景观格局的变化特征

采用新疆喀什噶尔河流域1990、2000和2010年的Landsat-TM影像数据和中巴资源卫星数据, 结合GIS技术, 分析了喀什噶尔河流域近20 a土地利用/覆被及景观格局动态变化特征, 并对其变化原因进行探讨. 结果显示: 在1990-2010年喀什噶尔河流域耕地、建设用地、盐碱地、水域湿地、裸土地和其他未利用地面积呈不断增加趋势, 变化幅度分别为73.92%、51.44%、24.27%、10.24%、6.47%和2.98%; 林地、草地和沙地面积减少, 变化幅度分别为-4.13%、-17.16%和-0.73%; 裸石岩砾面积近20 a基本维持不变. 利用转移矩阵可知, 流域新增耕地面积主要来自于16.46%的草地和3.36%的林地; 新增建设用地主要来自于1.46%的耕地和0.22%的草地; 新增水域湿地面积主要来自于0.18%的草地; 新增盐碱地面积主要来自于0.28%的草地. 1990-2010年的20 a里喀什噶尔河流域耕地和水域湿地分布趋于集中, 景观优势度增强, 且斑块之间的联系不断增强. 林地和草地面积减少, 景观趋于破碎化, 景观优势度降低. 喀什噶尔河流域土地利用类型及景观指数的变化受人口、经济、政策和技术的多重影响, 导致流域耕地面积增加、植被退化. 因此, 合理利用流域水土资源对流域生态环境安全十分重要.     

Comparative studies of the distribution characteristics of rocky desertification and land use/land cover classes in typical areas of Guizhou province, China

The Huajiang and Hongfenghu demonstration areas represent typical karst landforms and rocky desertification landscapes in Guizhou, China. These were selected for a comparison of rocky desertification and land use cover. Based mainly on 5 m resolution Spot 5, remote sensing images, topographic maps (1:10,000) and land use maps, the intensity and extent of rocky desertification, and slope characteristics of the two areas were interpreted. Spatial overlay analysis was used to compare the land use/land cover (LULC) and rocky desertification within each. The results were compared using the concepts of rocky desertification occurrence (RDO) among LULC classes and the structure value of desertification land (SVDL). The results demonstrated that (1) the landforms and extent of rocky desertification in the two areas are significantly different and the proportion of very steep slopes is one of the reasons leading to large areas of rocky desertification; (2) the RDO and SVDL show significant differences between the two areas; also rocky desertification intensity in various LULC classes cannot be measured in terms of RDO. High RDO may occur in low-intensity desertification land, and vice versa; (3) the structural characteristics of rocky desertification among various LULC are consistent among the woodland, “bare land” and “other grassland” land use classes in the two areas, but sequence slight > moderate > intense is not consistent between the areas. For the rocky desertification control, the present authors consider that the spatial distribution differences of rocky desertification and LULC among areas with different landform types area combined with the intensity of rocky desertification should be used in designing appropriate measures for control of desertification and rehabilitation of land.     

不同耕地类型对流域水沙过程的影响研究

常用的水土保持措施是退耕还林,但淮河流域是中国重要的农业产区,大规模实行退耕还林并不现实,所以通过调整耕地类型来减少水土流失可能是解决社会经济发展和生态保护矛盾的好方法。为研究不同耕地类型对流域水文要素及产沙的影响,考虑水田和旱地两种耕地类型对淮河息县水文站上游流域构建SWAT模型,构造A(实际耕地利用方式)、B(所有耕地为水田)和C(所有耕地为旱地)三种耕地类型情景,比较不同耕地类型情景下流域水文要素及产沙的变化情况。研究结果表明:所构建的SWAT模型在息县流域径流及泥沙模拟中具有良好的适用性,R2和NSE(Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency)均达到0.75以上;水田和旱地两种不同耕地类型对流域多年年均蒸散发及多年平均径流量影响较小,但对流域产沙量影响较大,在汛期更为明显,模拟期内每平方公里水田每年最多比旱地少产沙491.8t,平均每年少产沙约208.7t。采取水田耕种比旱地耕种更有利于减少息县流域内的水土流失。     

Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok,India

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.     

黔桂岩溶山区土地利用变化的社会经济因素分析

基于黔桂岩溶山区1990、2015年的土地利用数据和社会经济统计资料,利用典范对应分析方法对1990-2015年25年间的土地利用变化及社会经济驱动因素进行了实证分析。结论如下:（1）黔桂岩溶山区土地利用变化存在明显的时空分异现象;（2）贵州高原区以草地大幅减少和林地增加为主要特征;黔桂峰丛洼地区以水域面积增加和草地减少为主要特征;广西丘陵区的主要特征是耕地减少和建设用地增加。（3）贵州高原区土地利用类型变化以经济和人口因素为主要驱动力;广西丘陵区土地利用类型变化以经济因素和农业结构水平为主要驱动力;农业因素对黔桂峰丛洼地区的土地利用变化驱动作用明显。未来应提高贵州高原和黔桂峰丛洼地区岩溶山区草地生态功能重要性的认识,在加强森林植被恢复的同时加强草地资源保护;城镇化发展背景下黔桂岩溶山区应减少优质耕地占用,开发低丘缓坡土地,建设山地特色城市。      

Analyzing spatiotemporal land use/cover dynamic using remote sensing imagery and GIS techniques case: Kan basin of Iran

Land use/land cover (LU/LC) that are significant elements for the interconnection of human activities and environment monitoring can be useful to find out the deviations of saving a maintainable environment. Remote sensing is a very useful tool for the affair of land use or land cover monitoring, which can be helpful to decide the allocation of land use and land cover. Supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm in GIS was applied in this study to detect land use/land cover changes observed in Kan basin using multispectral satellite data obtained from Landsat 5 (TM) and 8 (OLI) for the years 2000 and 2016, respectively. The main aim of this study was to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover changes in Kan basin of Tehran over the period 2000–2016. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique was applied to Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2016. The Kan basin was classified into five major LU/LC classes including: Built up areas, garden, pasture, water and bare-land. Change detection analysis was performed to compare the quantities of land cover class conversions between time intervals. The results revealed both increase and decrease of the different LU/LC classes from 2000 to 2016. The results indicate that during the study period, built-up land, and pastures have increased by 0.2% (76.4 km²) and 0.3% (86.03 km²) while water, garden and bare land have decreased by 0, 0.01% (3.62 km²) and 0.4% (117.168 km²), respectively. Information obtained from change detection of LU/LC can aid in providing optimal solutions for the selection, planning, implementation and monitoring of development schemes to meet the increasing demands of human needs in land management.     

50余年来岩溶山地近郊村域土地利用与景观格局演变——以贵州省清镇市王家寨地区为例

选取贵州省清镇市近郊村域王家寨地区为研究对象,在GIS支持下,利用该区域1963年、1982年、2005年、2010年和2015年5期土地利用图形数据叠加分析,提取出研究区50余年来的土地利用/覆盖信息,并结合相应的社会经济统计数据,分析了其驱动力因子,其结果表明:(1)1963—2015年间,土地覆盖类型的总体变化为高被草地和平坝旱耕地明显减少,低被草地、农村居民点、工矿用地、公路用地面积大幅增加,其中,平坝旱耕地有向经济效益更高的土地利用方式转变的趋势;（2）景观格局演变的总体趋势是:自1963年起,斑块数量、斑块密度持续增加,到2015年呈下降趋势,而最大斑块指数逐年减小,形状趋于不规则,同时,近50年景观的多样性指数持续增加;（3）区内土地利用/覆盖和景观格局呈阶段性变化,从1963年到2005年,坡地土地利用活动较强,2005年后,平地土地利用强度增加、农业逐渐转型、聚落持续扩展;（4）区内土地利用及景观格局的变化主要受经济、人口和政策因素的影响。      

Land use change modeling and the effect of compact city paradigms: integration of GIS-based cellular automata and weights-of-evidence techniques

In recent decades, attaining urban sustainability is the primary goal for urban planners and decision makers. Among various aspects of urban sustainability, environmental protection such as agricultural and forest conservations is very important in tropical countries like Malaysia. In this regard, compact urban development due to high density, rural development containment is known as the most sustainable urban forms. This paper attempts to propose an integrated modeling approach to predict the future land use changes by considering city compactness paradigms. First, the cellular automata (CA) were applied for calculating land use conversion. Next, weights-of-evidence (WoE) which is based on Bayes theory was utilized to calibrate CA model and to support the transitional rule assessment. Several urban-related parameters as well as compact city indicators were utilized to estimate the future land use maps. The results showed how compact development parameters and site characteristics can be combined using the WoE model to predict the probability of land use changes. The modeling approach supports the essential logic of probabilistic methods and indicates that spatial autocorrelation of various land use types and accessibility is the main drivers of urban land use changes.