A comparative assessment between linear and quadratic discriminant analyses (LDA-QDA) with frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models for forest fire susceptibility mapping in China

Forest fire is known as an important natural hazard in many countries which causes financial damages and human losses; thus, it is necessary to investigate different aspects of this phenomenon. In this study, performance of four models of linear and quadratic discriminant analysis (LDA and QDA), frequency ratio (FR), and weights-of-evidence (WofE) was investigated to model forest fire susceptibility in the Yihuang area, China. For this purpose, firstly, a forest fire locations map was prepared implementing MODIS satellite images and field surveys. Then, it was classified into two groups including training (70%) and validation (30%) by a random algorithm. In addition, 13 forest fire effective factors were prepared and used such as slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), plan curvature, land use, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), annual rainfall, distance from roads and rivers, wind effect, annual temperature, and soil texture. Using the training dataset and effective factors, LDA, QDA, FR, and WofE models were applied and forest fire susceptibility maps were prepared. Finally, area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was implemented for investigating the performance of the models. The results depicted that WofE had the best performance (AUC = 82.2%), followed by FR (AUC = 80.9%), QDA (AUC = 78.3%), and LDA (AUC = 78%), respectively. The results of this study showed the high contribution of altitude, slope degree, and temperature. On the other hand, it was seen that slope aspect and soil had the lowest importance in forest fire susceptibility mapping. From the AUC results, it can be concluded that FR, WofE, LDA, and QDA had acceptable performance and could be used for forest fire susceptibility mapping at the regional scale.     

干旱气候因子与森林火灾

森林火灾作为一种自然灾害, 气候变化直接或间接影响森林燃烧的火环境, 进而对火发生和火行为产生影响. 干旱气候条件与森林火灾的发生有密切的关系, 气象条件通过气温、 日照、 蒸发量、 风力、 空气湿度等影响着森林火灾的发生和发展. 一般情况下, 气温高、 降水少、 湿度小、 风力大易发生森林火灾. 在山区, 山谷风和地形影响森林火灾蔓延, 森林火灾的蔓延主要受山谷风所控制, 具有间歇性, 另外地形的变化在很大程度上制约着火势的蔓延. 所以, 要利用不同时段的气象条件、 山风出现的时间及有利地形, 及时组织灭火和控制火势蔓延. 森林火灾的发生有各种类型, 通过对森林火灾中一些特殊火行为及相关元素对火灾发展蔓延影响分析, 找出森林火灾扑救与逃生的方法及注意事项.     

Fire danger assessment with remote sensing: a case study in Northern China

Every year several million hectares of forest and grassland in China are affected by wildfires. The majority of wildfires occur in the northern part of China, where grasslands and forests are ubiquitous. A critical step toward the protection of life, property, and natural resources from wildfires is the development of a fire danger rating system. This paper presents a new method to assess fire danger that capitalizes on the abundance of environmental data available via remote sensing and applies this new method to the northern part of China. Using an analytical hierarchy process, a fire danger index was developed based on five environmental factors that are known to affect fire frequency and severity, including land surface temperature, vegetation curing, equivalent water thickness, vegetation continuity degree, and fuel weight. Data for these five factors were derived from satellite imagery, instead of point data, allowing for predictions to be made over a large geographic area. Fire danger ratings were then mapped for the region based on the fire danger index. In addition, the accuracy of the fire danger index was evaluated by statistical analyses. The fire danger index was significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation, suggesting that changes in these two environmental variables will affect the predictions of the index.     

Forest fire spread simulation algorithm based on cellular automata

Traditional models result in low efficiency and poor accuracy when simulating the spread of large-scale forest fires. We constructed an improved model that couples cellular automata with an existing forest fire model to ensure better time accuracy of forest fire spread. Our model considers the impact of time steps on simulation accuracy to provide an optimal time step value. The model was tested using a case study of forest fire spread at Daxing’an Mountain in May 2006. The results show that the optimal time step for the forest fire spread geographic cellular automata simulation algorithm is 1/8 of the time taken for cellular material to be completely combusted. When compared with real fire data from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images, our model was found to have high temporal and spatial consistency, with a mean Kappa coefficient of 0.6352 and mean accuracy of 87.89%. This algorithm can be used to simulate and predict forest fire spread and is also reversible (i.e., it can identify fire source points).     

四川西昌“3·30”火烧区响水沟火后泥石流成灾机理

2020年3月30日,西昌市经久乡发生森林大火,响水沟流域植被被林火大面积烧毁,同年雨季,响水沟流域内多条沟道暴发泥石流,其中1#、2#、3#沟毗邻居民房屋和耕地,影响较为严重。通过野外调查、遥感解译和室外试验,以响水沟1#、2#、3#沟为研究对象,分析了不同林火烈度下,渗透特征、坡面侵蚀和沟道侵蚀的差异,从而揭示响水沟火后泥石流的成灾机理。结果表明,林火是泥石流暴发的重要诱因,火后泥石流的降雨阈值会明显降低。林火干扰导致坡面土壤的渗透系数表现出不同程度的降低,林火烈度越严重的区域,渗透系数越小,降雨更大比例地转化为坡面径流参与到坡面侵蚀。随降雨次数的增多,轻度、中度、重度火烧区域的坡面土壤侵蚀深度均增加;中度、重度林火烈度的侵蚀深度差异不大,且明显高于轻度区域,说明当林火烈度达到中度时,坡面土壤便会受到较大程度的侵蚀。地形条件相似的沟道,林火烈度越严重,泥石流侵蚀能力越强,最终体现于沟道两岸崩滑体数量越多,沟道宽度和深度越大。     

Hydrological impact of forest fires and climate change in a Mediterranean basin

Forest fire can modify and accelerate the hydrological response of Mediterranean basins submitted to intense rainfall: during the years following a fire, the effects on the hydrological response may be similar to those produced by the growth of impervious areas. Moreover, climate change and global warming in Mediterranean areas can imply consequences on both flash flood and fire hazards, by amplifying these phenomena. Based on historical events and post-fire experience, a methodology to interpret the impacts of forest fire in terms of rainfall-runoff model parameters has been proposed. It allows to estimate the consequences of forest fire at the watershed scale depending on the considered burned area. In a second stage, the combined effect of forest fire and climate change has been analysed to map the future risk of forest fire and their consequence on flood occurrence. This study has been conducted on the Llobregat river basin (Spain), a catchment of approximately 5,000 km² frequently affected by flash floods and forest fires. The results show that forest fire can modify the hydrological response at the watershed scale when the burned area is significant. Moreover, it has been shown that climate change may increase the occurrence of both hazards, and hence, more frequent severe flash floods may appear.     

基于MapGIS的森林防火监测预警系统设计与实现

快速、准确的进行林火火源监测及定位可以有效缩短扑救时间,降低林业资源损失和自然环境污染.为了解决这一问题,采用地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)和遥感(remote sensing, RS)作为研究手段、运用实例研究的方法,以MapGIS开发平台为基础,设计并开发“森林防火监测预警系统”.“遥感影像定位”和“视频图像定位”作为两种常用的监测定位手段,可以从宏观和微观的不同角度互补;火险等级预报为监测重点提供参考依据;火势推演分析紧密结合气象信息和植被信息模拟火场扩散情况.结果表明,GIS在森林防火监测定位方面不仅有着良好的可视性,其强大的空间分析特性尤为突出,对促进森林防火管理的信息化、科学化起到十分重要的作用.      

国产高分系列卫星在森林火灾应急处置中的全流程应用——以四川九龙县三岩龙乡“4·08”森林火灾为例

四川西部高山峡谷地貌发育,山高林密且地质环境恶劣,区内林草资源丰富,森林火灾多发、易发、频发,灾害应急处置难度大,防控任务重。国产高分系列卫星影像具有时空分辨率高、载荷类型多、机动性强、幅宽范围大、成像迅速等优点,对川西地区森林防灭火、灾害应急处置及防灾减灾等有明显优势。以2021年四川九龙县三岩龙乡“4·08”森林火灾为例,利用国产高分系列卫星数据分别对森林火灾初期、中期及晚期开展应急处置,包括快速解译林火火灾救援要素(初期)、感知亮温异常态势(中期)、跟踪监测过火区动态(中期)、结合火场需求提供应急扑救部署建议(中期)、开展灾损解译评估(晚期)及火后泥石流易发性评价(火后)等,结果表明国产高分系列卫星对森林火灾应急处置的全流程应用具有实践指导意义。     

Forest fire risk mapping of Kolli Hills, India, considering subjectivity and inconsistency issues

Forest fires have adverse ecological, economic, and social impacts. In this light, the present research aimed, first, to construct a fire risk model using a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and second, to derive a forest fire risk modeling strategy that alleviates the problem of inconsistency in the assigning of scores and weights to forest fire categories and layers. Third, the local-orientation effects and causes, which are relevant to the subjectivity problem, were investigated by comparing the risk scoring and weighting outcomes from Indian and Korean expert groups (IEG and KEG). Fourth, forest fire factors that can be considered regional and global also were investigated. Kolli Hills, India, was selected as the study area in this research. In the interests of alleviating the inconsistency problem, a weighting and scoring scheme based on the analytic hierarchy process was applied. The experiences from the existence of prevailing westerly winds, the most common forest types (i.e., in Korea: pine trees), and the different anthropogenic pressures between Korea and India resulted in the different scoring and weighting decisions of the two expert groups. Among the five fire risk factors, slope, road, and settlement can be considered to be global factors. On the other hand, forest cover and aspect are regional factors that can be more influenced by local environmental conditions. When considering the producer’s accuracy, the approach of the IEG together with the natural breaks thresholding method provided the best fire risk mapping result. On the other hand, the model from the IEG with equal interval provided the best result from the viewpoint of user’s accuracy and overall accuracy. Overall, this paper proposes a forest fire risk mapping procedure as basis for developing a global forest fire risk modeling in the future, where a series of standardized modeling steps and variables should be defined.     

An android intelligent mobile terminal application: field data survey system for forest fires

In order to meet the requirements of data collection in field survey of forest fires, this paper designed and realized a data collection system for forest fire field survey based on mobile smart phones with Android system. This android intelligent mobile terminal application contains three main data collection functions which are forest fuel data collection, forest fire events survey data collection and wildfire experiment data collection. Moreover, this intelligent mobile terminal application could overlay the spatial location of the collected data and Google map, which can facilitate users to understand the surrounding environment of the collected location. The intelligent mobile terminal application can easily record the text and numeric data when collecting forest fire data in field. Spatial locations, pictures, videos and other multimedia information can also be obtained by GPS and camera with the intelligent terminal. The system has been initially applied in the field works and obtained very good practical effect.     

Shifting zonal patterns of the southern boreal forest in eastern Canada associated with changing fire regime during the Holocene

This research aims at uncovering the stand-scale Holocene fire history of balsam fir forest stands from two bioclimatic zones of the boreal forest and assessing the existence of a sub-continental shift in past fire activity that could have triggered a change in the Holocene zonal pattern. In eastern Canada, the extant closed-crown boreal forest corresponds to two ecological regions separated along 49°N, the northern black spruce zone and the southern balsam fir zone. We sampled balsam fir stands from the southern fir zone (n = 7) and among the northernmost patches of fir forest located far beyond the fir zone boundary, into the spruce zone (n = 6). Macrofossil analysis of charcoal in mineral soils was used to reconstruct both the stand-scale and regional Holocene fire histories. Data were interpreted in the context of published palaeoecological evidence. Stands of the balsam fir zone were submitted to recurrent fire disturbances between c. 9000 and 5000 cal. yr B.P. Local fire histories suggested that four sites within the fir zone escaped fire during the Holocene. Such fire protected sites allowed the continuous maintenance of the balsam fir forest in the southern boreal landscape. Stands of the spruce zone have been affected by recurrent fires from 5000 cal. yr B.P. to present. Local fire histories indicated that no site escaped fire in this zone. Published palaeoecological data suggested that balsam fir migrated to its current northern limit sometime between 7300 and 6200 cal. yr B.P. A change of the fire regime 5000 years ago caused the regional decline of an historical northern balsam fir forest and its replacement by black spruce forest. The consequence was a sub-continental reshuffling of the fir and spruce zones within the closed-crown boreal forest. The macrofossil analysis of charcoal in mineral soils was instrumental to the reconstruction of stand-scale Holocene fire history at sites where no other in situ fire proxies were available.     

Modeling forest fire risk in the northeast of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Fire in forested areas can be regarded as an environmental disaster which is triggered by either natural forces or anthropogenic activities. Fires are one of the major hazards in forested and grassland areas in the north of Iran. Control of fire is difficult, but it is feasible to map fire risk by geospatial technologies and thereby minimize the frequency of fire occurrences and damages caused by fire. The fire risk models provide a suitable concept to understand characterization of fire risk. Some models are map based, and they combine effectively different forest fire–causing variables with remote sensing data in a GIS environment for identifying and mapping forest fire risk. In this study, Structural Fire Index, Fire Risk Index, and a new index called Hybrid Fire Index were used to delineate fire risk in northeastern Iran that is subjected to frequent forest fire. Vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads, and vicinity to settlements were used as the factors influencing accidental fire starts. These indices were set up by assigning subjective weight values to the classes of the layers based on their sensitivity ratio to fire. Hot spots data derived from MODIS satellite sensor were used to validate the indices. Assessment of the indices with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that 76.7 % accuracy of the HFI outperformed the other two indices. According to the Hybrid Fire Index, 57.5 % of the study area is located under high-risk zone, 33 % in medium-risk zone, and the remaining 9.5 % area is located in low-risk zone.     

大兴安岭西北坡火烧迹地湿地格局变化及其影响因子研究

选取大兴安岭1987年特大森林火灾主要过火区的图强林业局育英和奋斗两林场作为研究区,利用地理信息系统软件,对其火后湿地格局变化以及森林水文功能恢复状况进行了分析。结果显示,与过火前相比湿地面积增加了77.56%,且分布趋于集中;森林的平均水文调节能力已得到初步恢复,但具有较高调节能力的林地所占面积有所减少;森林的水文调节能力、地形因子以及火烧强度对湿地分布格局的变化均有明显影响。在森林水文调节功能下降地区、地势较低的谷地,坡度平缓的坡地以及火烧强度较大的地区,湿地面积增加明显。     

火后泥石流流域坡面侵蚀物源动储量估算方法探讨

火后泥石流具有易发、突发等特征,尤其在林火发生当年异常活跃,林火干扰会加剧土壤侵蚀,若将常规泥石流坡面侵蚀物源动储量估算方法应用于火后泥石流将使计算结果偏小,会导致拦砂坝等治理工程库容设计有效性不足.本文采用修正通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE),以四川省雅江县八角楼乡火烧迹地D4流域为例,通过野外调查、室内外试验、遥感解...     

古炭屑与古森林火?

森林火普遍发生在地质历史时期中，它对自然植被系统的演替起着重要作用。不同强度和频率的森林火培育出不同类型的植被：频繁的森林火导致草甸的形成，而热带雨林形成的原因之一是森林火的缺乏。古炭屑作为古森林火的遗迹，具有分布广泛、细胞结构保存完好以及原地埋藏等特点，为研究古森林火发生的强度和频率提供了宝贵的材料。古炭屑的出现与当时的气候因素、植被类型和地理状况有密切关系：干旱、少雨的气候常常伴随高频率森林火的发生，表现出古炭屑的数量增多；易燃物种组成的植被易发生森林火，古炭屑的出现也会增多，而耐火树种会降低森林火的强度，古炭屑则出现少。因此，从古炭屑的数量和种类的变化，可探讨古森林火的发生规律，进而推断长期地质历史时期的气候、植被、地理状况的演变。     

浅层滑坡型火后泥石流起动机理研究进展与案例分析

火后泥石流由起动条件的不同可以分为表面径流型火后泥石流和浅层滑坡型火后泥石流.由于表面径流型火后泥石流多发生于火灾后的前两年,水土流失严重,灾害效应明显,因此,大多数研究集中在表面径流型火后泥石流.然而,对于火灾较长时间后发生的浅层滑坡型火后泥石流,现有研究相对较少,这制约了人们对于浅层滑坡型火后泥石流起动条件和起动机...     

大兴安岭林区火灾后冻土环境的变化——以古莲河煤矿地区为例

本文通过对我国大兴安岭古莲河煤矿地区火灾后第二年冻土环境的野外调查表明,火灾后气温、地温、蒸发量及风速有明显的增加;湿度、含冰量、含水量有显著的减小。所有这些因子的变化导致了季节融化深度的增加。这些结论说明了森林火灾后冻土环境确实有较大的变化。此外,结合室内试验,本文还对火灾后最大季节融化深度(ξ_(max))进行了预测、由于植被与冻土关系的复杂性,本文对今后的工作提出了自己的看法,以便更完善地研究火灾后冻土环境的变化及对森林生态系统的影响。     

Comparison of new individual and hybrid machine learning algorithms for modeling and mapping fire hazard: a supplementary analysis of fire hazard in different counties of Golestan Province in Iran

Natural Hazards - The forest fire hazard mapping using the accurate models in the fire-prone areas has particular importance to predict the future fire occurrence and allocate the resources for...     

Forest fire risk estimation in a typical temperate forest in Northeastern China using the Canadian forest fire weather index: case study in autumn 2019 and 2020

Natural Hazards - China's forest cover has increased by approximately 10% as a result of sustainable forest management since the late 1970s. The forest ecosystem area affected by fire is...