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1.
In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.  相似文献   

2.
The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4mm and 97.7mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.  相似文献   

3.
High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related disasters. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for research and operational usage. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Considerable variability in the prediction of the intensity and location of mesoscale heavy rainfall, as well as in the intensity and path of the super-cyclone, are found. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary conditions and availability of data on land–ocean surface processes are tuned separately to the specific event types, such as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling such types of events may require suitable treatments for their proper simulations through appropriate dynamics, physics and resolution.  相似文献   

4.
Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting.To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea,this study per-formed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations,including domain setup,grid resolution,sea surface temperature,land surface data,and atmosphere-wave coupling.The simu-lated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions,atmo-spheric stabilities,and sea status.Generally,the simulated wind profiles matched observations,despite systematic underestimations.Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling.Atmosphere-wave cou-pling further improved the simulated wind,especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution,and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface infor-mation only had a slight impact,mainly visible during very stable conditions.Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact,most visible during unstable conditions.Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.  相似文献   

5.
Forecasting skill of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in simulating typhoons over the West Pacific and South China Sea with different trajectories has been studied in terms of track direction and intensity. Four distinct types of typhoons are chosen for this study in such a way that one of them turns toward left during its motion and had landfall, while the second took a right turn before landfall. The third typhoon followed almost a straight line path during its course of motion, while the fourth typhoon tracked toward the coast and just before landfall, ceased its motion and travelled in reverse direction. WRF model has been nested in one way with a coarse resolution of 9?km and a fine resolution of 3?km for this study, and the experiments are performed with National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecasting System (NCEP-GFS) analyses and forecast fields. The model has been integrated up to 96?h and the simulation results are compared with observed and analyzed fields. The results show that the WRF model could satisfactorily simulate the typhoons in terms of time and location of landfall, mean sea-level pressure, maximum wind speed, etc. Results also show that the sensitivity of model resolution is less in predicting the track, while the fine-resolution model component predicted slightly better in terms of central pressure drop and maximum wind. In the case of typhoon motion speed, the coarse-resolution component of the model predicted the landfall time ahead of the actual, whereas the finer one produced either very close to the best track or lagging little behind the best track though the difference in forecast between the model components is minimal. The general tendency of track error forecast is that it increases almost linearly up to 48?h of model simulations and then it diverges quickly. The results also show that the salient features of typhoons such as warm central core, radial increase of wind speed, etc. are simulated well by both the coarse and fine domains of the WRF model.  相似文献   

6.
Natural Hazards - Precipitation and temperature are critical climatic variables that drive catastrophic climatic events including droughts and floods. These variables continue to fluctuate, thereby...  相似文献   

7.
The Late Precambrian or Eocambrian and the lowermost part of Palaeozoic rocks of West Africa and of the Western half of Central Africa include two lithostratigraphic sequences of sediments which we can identify as well on the craton as in the orogenic belts. The lower sequence, argillaceous, green colour, sometimes flyschoid, begins with a tillite or a mixtite. The upper sequence made of reddish, mainly continental sandstones, represents in some areas the molasse of the Pan-African Fold Belt.These two sequences, and notably at the base of the first one the tillite horizon, seem to be older in the South (Katangan and West-Congolian Chains) than in the North (Adrar of Mauritania). This diachronism is thought to be related to polar wandering, the South pole having shifted in that interval of time from South-Africa to West of the Senegal coast.
Zusammenfassung Das obere Präkambrium oder Eokambrium und die Basis des Paläozoikums von Westafrika und im westlichen Teil von Zentralafrika sind aus zwei lithostratigraphischen Abfolgen gebildet, die gleichfalls auf den Kratonen und in den Gebirgsketten zu erkennen sind. Die untere feinklastische Abfolge, grün, manchmal flyschartig, beginnt mit einem Tillit oder einem Mixtit. Die obere rote, sandige Abfolge, kontinentalen Ursprungs, wird örtlich als eine von der pan-afrikanischen Orogenese gebildete Molasse angesehen.Diese beiden Abfolgen, besonders die Tillite, scheinen diachron und im Süden älter (Katangische und West-Kongolische Gebirgsketten) als im Norden (Adrar von Mauritanien) zu sein. Diese Verjüngung nach Norden kann mit einer Polwanderung in Verbindung gebracht werden; der Südpol zieht während dieser Zeit von Südafrika in das Gebiet westlich der senegalesischen Küste.

Résumé Le Précambrian terminal ou Eocambrien et la base du Paléozoïque de l'Afrique de l'Ouest et de la partie occidentale de l'Afrique centrale comprennent deux ensembles lithostratigraphiques identifiables aussi bien dans les couvertures cratoniques que dans les chaînes. L'ensemble inférieur, argileux, vert, parfois flyschoïde, débute par une tillite ou une mixtite. L'ensemble supérieur, gréseux, rouge, à dominante continentale, est interprété dans certaines zones comme la molasse de la chaîne pan-africaine. ces deux ensembles, et en particulier la tillite á la base du premier, semblent plus anciens au Sud (chaînes katangienne et ouest-congolience) qu'au Nord (Adrar de Mauritanie). Cet âge plus jeune vers le Nord va de Pair avec le mouvement du pôle sud, qui, â époque, se déplace de l'Afrique du Sud au large des côtes du Sénegal.

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8.
The Western Alps’ active tectonics is characterized by ongoing widespread extension in the highest parts of the belt and transpressive/compressive tectonics along its borders. We examine these contrasting tectonic regimes using a multidisciplinary approach including seismotectonics, numerical modeling, GPS, morphotectonics, fieldwork, and brittle deformation analysis. Extension appears to be the dominant process in the present-day tectonic activity in the Western Alps, affecting its internal areas all along the arc. Shortening, in contrast, is limited to small areas located along at the outer borders of the chain. Strike-slip is observed throughout the Alpine realm and in the foreland. The stress-orientation pattern is radial for σ3 in the inner, extensional zones, and for σ1 in the outer, transcurrent/tranpressional ones. Extensional areas can be correlated with the parts of the belt with the thickest crust. Quantification of seismic strain in tectonically homogeneous areas shows that only 10–20% of the geodesy-documented deformation can be explained by the Alpine seismicity. We propose that, Alpine active tectonics are ruled by isostasy/buoyancy forces rather than the ongoing shortening along the Alpine Europe/Adria collision zone. This interpretation is corroborated by numerical modeling. The Neogene extensional structures in the Alps formed under increasingly brittle conditions. A synthesis of paleostress tensors for the internal parts of the West-Alpine Arc documents major orogen-parallel extension with a continuous change in σ3 directions from ENE–WSW in the Simplon area, to N–S in the Vanoise area and to NNW–SSE in the Briançon area. Minor orogen-perpendicular extension increases from N to S. This second signal correlates with the present-day geodynamics as revealed by focal-plane mechanisms analysis. The orogen-parallel extension could be related to the opening of the Ligurian Sea during the Early-Middle Miocene and to compression/rotation of the Adriatic indenter inducing lateral extrusion.  相似文献   

9.
There are many scientific applications that have high performance computing (HPC) demands. Such demands are traditionally supported by cluster- or Grid-based systems. Cloud computing, which has experienced a tremendous growth, emerged as an approach to provide on-demand access to computing resources. The cloud computing paradigm offers a number of advantages over other distributed platforms. For example, the access to resources is flexible and cost-effective since it is not necessary to invest a large amount of money on a computing infrastructure nor pay salaries for maintenance functions. Therefore, the possibility of using cloud computing for running high performance computing applications is attractive. However, it has been shown elsewhere that current cloud computing platforms are not suitable for running some of these kinds of applications since the performance offered is very poor. The reason is mainly the overhead from virtualisation which is extensively used by most cloud computing platforms as a means to optimise resource usage. Furthermore, running HPC applications in current cloud platforms is a complex task that in many cases requires configuring a cluster of virtual machines (VMs). In this paper, we present a lightweight virtualisation approach for efficiently running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (a computing- and communication-intensive application) in a cloud computing environment. Our approach also provides a higher-level programming model that automates the process of configuring a cluster of VMs. We assume such a cloud environment can be shared with other types of HPC applications such as mpiBLAST (an embarrassingly parallel application), and MiniFE (a memory-intensive application). Our experimental results show that lightweight virtualisation imposes about 5 % overhead and it substantially outperforms traditional heavyweight virtualisation such as KVM.  相似文献   

10.
Atiqur Rahman 《GeoJournal》2006,65(3):211-227
The main objectives of the present study are: (i) to assess the income-wise household environmental conditions of the sampled households in Aligarh city, (ii) to examine income-wise disease profile of the population, (iii) to assess the relationship between income and four most occurring diseases, (iv) draw out inter-relationship between income, non-ideal household environmental conditions and environment related diseases. The quality of life and diseases in any urban areas get reflected by the immediate neighborhood in different parts of the city which depends upon the income strata of the households, their way of living, and their understanding of their household environment. This is because it is the household environment, which exerts the most and immediate influence on the life of the people. This study was carried out in order to assess household environmental conditions (i.e. housing conditions, bathroom and sanitation conditions, water supply conditions, water logging conditions, household garbage and solid waste, household pests, indoor air and indoor noise pollution) and their effect on the health of the resident population of Aligarh city. The method includes household survey of Aligarh city using questionnaires. The sampled households were classified into five income groups from very low to very high. Relationship was tested between income and household environmental conditions and also between income and diseases using Chi-Square technique. About 55% of the total sampled households suffer from diarrhea/dysentery, 43% jaundice, 42% malaria and 41% respiratory diseases. About 40% suffer from skin diseases, small pox/chicken pox. All these diseases are a result of poor household environmental conditions. Whereas 35% people reported other diseases (i.e. heart disease, hypertension and diabetes), only 14.42% households reported of tuberculosis. The study concludes that there exists a significant positive relationship between income level and household environmental conditions, and also between income and various diseases among sampled households of Aligarh city.  相似文献   

11.
We combine environmental magnetism, geochemical measurements and colour reflectance to study two late Quaternary sediment cores: GeoB 4905‐4 at 2° 30′ N off Cameroon and GeoB 4906‐3 at 0° 44′ N off Gabon. This area is suitable for investigating precipitation changes over Central and West Africa because of its potential to record input of aeolian and fluvial sediments. Three magnetozones representing low and high degree of alteration of the primary rock magnetic signals were identified. The magnetic signature is dominated by fine‐grained magnetite, while residual haematite prevails in the reduced intervals, showing increase in concentration and fine grain size at wet intervals. Our records also show millennial‐scale changes in climate during the last glacial and interglacial cycles. At the northern location, the past 5.5 ka are marked by high‐frequency oscillations of Ti and colour reflectance, which suggests aeolian input and hence aridity. The southern location remains under the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and thus did not register aeolian signals. The millennial‐scale climatic signals indicate that drier and/or colder conditions persisted during the late Holocene and are synchronous with the 900 a climatic cycles observed in Northern Hemisphere ice core records. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
《Geoforum》1986,17(2):141-159
Very few analysts have identified the broader material circumstances within South Africa which have provided the direct pre-conditions for the present crisis. This paper describes some of these economic factors and indicates the extent and depth of the present crisis. Housing, transport, employment and education provide the focus given their direct links to black protest. Having provided this context for the present unrest the paper then briefly explores the key aspects of the present government's ‘reforms’. The state and capital's policies of ‘controlled’ urbanization and the privatization of the social bases of reproduction are subjected to critical examination. The conclusion reached is that these reforms fail to address the nature of the crisis and as such are unlikely to succeed.  相似文献   

13.
Mineralogy, major, trace and rare earth elements of a weathering profile developed on tertiary greenstone belt in the extreme North Cameroon are reported. The aim of which was to investigate mineralogical evolution and element mobilization and redistribution during weathering under dry tropical climate. The weathering profile consists of four main horizons: (1) a spheroidal weathering zone constituted by a corestone–shell complex, (2) a C horizon, (3) a Bw horizon and an Ah horizon. The results indicate that nontronite, a Fe-rich smectite, is the exclusive clay mineral formed in the exfoliated shells and the C horizon. It is associated with kaolinite in the upper horizons. The coexistence of these two clay minerals induced a decrease of CEC and pH which becomes neutral. The weathering index (WI) values reveal that weathering becomes more and more intensive from the corestone up to Bw horizon, which is the most weathered horizon in the weathering profile. Mass balance calculations, using Th as immobile element, indicate that Ti is quite mobile and that Al and Fe are relatively enriched at the bottom and strongly leached at the top of the profile. Alkalis and alkaline earth elements are strong leached through out the profile, except Ca which displays similar trend as Al and Fe. The same goes for LILE (Cs, Sr), TTE (Cr, Co, Ni) and HSFE (Y, Nb, Hf). In opposite, REE are depleted at the bottom and enriched in the upper horizons, with more enrichment for LREE than for HREE. It appears that weathering of greenstone belt causes a fractionation of HREE and induces a concentration of LREEs. Ce and Eu anomalies display opposite behaviour.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Offshore active faults, especially those in the deep sea, are very difficult to study because of the water and sedimentary cover. To characterize the nature and geometry of offshore active faults, a combination of methods must be employed. Generally, seismic profiling is used to map these faults, but often only fault-related folds rather than fracture planes are imaged. Multi-beam swath bathymetry provides information on the structure and growth history of a fault because movements of an active fault are reflected in the bottom morphology. Submersible and deep-tow surveys allow direct observations of deformations on the seafloor (including fracture zones and microstructures). In the deep sea, linearly aligned cold seep communities provide indirect evidence for active faults and the spatial migration of their activities.The Western Sagami Bay fault (WSBF) in the western Sagami Bay off central Japan is an active fault that has been studied in detail using the above methods. The bottom morphology, fracture  相似文献   

18.
《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(5):389-400
Despite its capital importance, the genesis of endoreic water table depressions in Western sub-Sahelian Africa is not well known yet. It is the case of the Trarza Aquifer, which is the main resource of drinkable water for Nouakchott. While water needs are growing steadily, global warming is threatening this resource. The genesis of piezometric depression is the object of this study, which analyses it in the light of the hydrochemistry of the western border of the Trarza aquifer, which is located in proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and its salt wedge.

The hydrochemical facies of groundwater in the Idini pumping site, 60 km East of Nouakchott, and that of a Nouakchott to the Senegal River transect, should be categorised into 3 groups: 1) chloro-sulfated 2) sulfato-chlorinated and chloro-bicarbonated. Such facies, which are also sodocalcic, indicate that mineralization is of mixed origin (marine and continental).

After reviewing the main mathematical models for piezometric depression, the present study attempts a conceptualization of the piezometric evolution of this phreatic aquifer (Continental Terminal) during the Quaternary. It highlights the dominant role of evaporation in the evolution of the water table of the Trarza aquifer, whose impact is similar to the one of the Quaternary marine level increase.  相似文献   

19.
The continental climatic evolution of Anatolia has been reconstructed quantitatively for the last 45 million years using the coexistence approach. Although there were some regional effects, the Anatolian Cenozoic continental climate record correlated with the European climatic condition and the global oxygen isotope record from marine environments. From middle Eocene to late Miocene, continental warming in Anatolia was pronounced for inferred winter temperature and mean annual temperature as in Europe. Generally, the palaeoclimatic property of Anatolia resembles the European climatic changing and marine temperature changing based on the oxygen isotope record; however, climatic values of the terrestrial area in Anatolia are higher from Lutetian to Aquitanian and these values are lower than European values from Aquitanian to Tortonian. Correspondingly, Cenozoic climatic cooling in Anatolia is directly associated with an increase of seasonality, palaeogeographic position and terrestrial condition. Furthermore, mean annual precipitation values of Anatolia remained relatively stable during the Eocene–Oligocene; however, these values indicated changing throughout middle–late Miocene. Moreover, in this study, decline of abundance and variables for the mangrove and back mangrove palaeocommunities during the last 45 million years is recorded because of the decreasing of humidity, temperature and increasing of terrestrial condition.  相似文献   

20.
《Gondwana Research》2016,29(4):1500-1515
Although the Late Devonian extinctions were amongst the largest mass extinction events in the Phanerozoic, the causes, nature and timing of these events remain poorly restrained. In addition to the most pronounced biodiversity loss at the Frasnian–Famennian (F–F) boundary and the end Famennian, there were also less extensively studied extinction pulses in the Middle to Late Givetian and the Frasnian. Here we used a combination of palynological, elemental, molecular and stable isotope analyses to investigate a sedimentary record of reef-systems from this time period in the Canning Basin, Western Australia.The acquired data generally showed distinct variations between sediments from (i) the time around the Givetian–Frasnian (G–F) boundary and (ii) later in the Frasnian and indicated a distinct interval of biotic stress, particularly for reef-builders, in the older sediments. Alterations of pristane/phytane ratios, gammacerane indices, Chlorobi biomarkers, δDkerogen and chroman ratios describe the change from a restricted marine palaeoenvironment with an anoxic/euxinic hypolimnion towards a presumably open marine setting with a vertically mixed oxic to suboxic water column. Simultaneous excursions in δ13C profiles of carbonates, organic matter (OM) and hydrocarbons in the older sediments reflect the stratification-induced enhancement of OM-recycling by sulfate reducing bacteria. Alterations in sterane distributions and elevated abundances of methyltrimethyltridecylchromans (MTTCs) and perylene indicate an increased terrigenous nutrient input via riverine influx, which would have promoted stratification, phytoplankton blooms and the development of lower water column anoxia.The detected palaeoenvironmental conditions around the G–F boundary may reflect a local or global extinction event. Our data furthermore suggest a contribution of the higher plant-expansion and photic zone euxinia to the Late Devonian extinctions, consistent with previous hypotheses. Furthermore, this work might contribute to the understanding of variations in Devonian reef margin and platform-top architecture, relevant for petroleum exploration and development in the global Devonian hydrocarbon resources.  相似文献   

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