Evaluation of swimmer-based rip current escape strategies

Rip currents are the primary hazard on surf beaches, and early studies described them as fast, shore-normal flows that extended seaward of the surf zone. Based on this traditional view, commonly promoted safety advice was to escape a rip current by swimming parallel to the beach. However, recent studies have shown dominant rip current re-circulation within the surf zone and have endorsed floating as an appropriate escape strategy. Here, a first quantitative assessment of the efficacy of various rip current escape strategies, with a focus on the underlying physical processes, is presented. A field study was conducted at Shelly Beach, NSW, Australia, measuring three rip currents (two open beaches, one topographic) over 3 days in varying wave conditions. Floating was found to be a longer duration, more variable escape strategy ( $ \overline{t} $  = 3.8 min, σ = 2.4 min), than swimming parallel ( $ \overline{t} $  = 2.2 min, σ = 1.0 min). Neither of the scenarios is 100 % foolproof, and both fail in some scenarios, making simplified safety recommendations difficult. Swim parallel failures are related to swimming against the alongshore current of the rip circulation. Float failures related to surf zone exits, with the highest exit rate occurring in the topographic rip. Float failures also occurred due to multiple re-circulations without the person attaining safe footing on the bar. The variable spatial and temporal behaviour of rip currents suggests that a single escape strategy safety message is inappropriate. Instead, a combined approach and scenario-specific safety advice should be considered by beach safety practitioners to promote to the public.     

Rip current escape strategies: lessons for swimmers and coastal rescue authorities

Lagrangian flow of two rip currents was measured using human drifters to understand how variations in surf zone circulation affect exit positions of floating swimmers. Based on these results, two escape strategies were assessed, ‘do nothing’ and ‘swim parallel to the beach’. The drifter paths and exit positions were analysed to determine the best escape strategy for passive swimmers in each scenario. Of the two methods, doing nothing to allow the rip current to take a swimmer is the most effective strategy. More than 75% of rip current flow scenarios could hinder chances of escape of swimmers if the wrong direction was chosen to swim parallel to the beach to safety. This is because in many situations a swimmer encounters not only a rip current flowing offshore but also a longshore current flowing parallel to the beach. The best education campaign for the public, in addition to only swimming on a patrolled beach, would be to promote the ‘do nothing’ rip current escape strategy, as it covers all flow scenarios without reducing a swimmer’s chance of survival.     

An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in the conterminous United States for the period 1994–2007. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. An analysis of historical hazard event data illustrate that, on average, 35 people reportedly die from rip currents each year in the United States. Also, similar to other hazard events where unique differences in gender vulnerability have been found, men are over six times more likely to fall victim to a deadly rip current than females. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern United States, with a nonuniform spatial distribution along other Atlantic, Pacific, and Great Lakes coastlines. Physical vulnerabilities are suggested as the primary cause for the unique fatality distribution found. Temporally, summer season weekends are shown to have the more fatalities than any other time of the year. A classification scheme was developed to categorize synoptic-scale weather conditions present during deadly rip current events. More than 70% of all rip current fatalities are associated with onshore winds. Specifically, a rip current fatality is most likely when a surface high pressure system creates these onshore winds. The quality of the fatality reporting database available for researchers is also assessed.     

Alongshore variation in the rip current hazard at Pensacola Beach, Florida

Many drowning and near drownings at Pensacola Beach, Florida are attributed to rip currents, the strong seaward-flowing currents that extend from the shoreline to the line of breakers and sometimes beyond. While surf forecasts assume that the rip hazard is uniform alongshore and that the (erosion) rips are ephemeral features, evidence is presented to suggest that the rip hazard at Pensacola Beach is not uniform alongshore. Rather the rip current “hotspots” develop as a consequence of an alongshore variation in the surf similarity parameter and nearshore state on the order of ~1,450 m. The variation is forced by transverse ridges on the inner shelf that force wave refraction and focusing at the ridge crests. This creates a more dissipative, rhythmic bar and beach morphology at the ridges and rougher surf. Between ridges, where wave heights and periods are smaller and the outermost bar is forced closer to the shoreline, the nearshore is in a (more reflective) bar and rip state during red flag conditions. Drownings between 2000 and 2009 are shown to be clustered between transverse ridges and in the years following a hurricane or tropical storm (2000–2003 and 2005–2008) when the bar and rip morphology first develops as the shore face recovers. This continues until the innermost bar attaches to the beach face unless the bar system is reset by another tropical storm or hurricane. It is argued that the rip hazard is dependent on the alongshore covariation of the environmental forcing with the individual and group behavior in both time and space, even on what appears to be a relatively uniform beach environment.     

The psychology of beach users: importance of confirmation bias,action, and intention to improving rip current safety

Natural Hazards - The rip current hazard on beaches is a global public health issue. While physical controls on rip current formation and flow behavior are relatively well understood, there has...     

Internal erosion of chemically reinforced granular materials: a mathematical modeling approach

Internal erosion (IE) affects the stability of natural and reinforced materials by causing instability within their granular structure. The dislodgement and transport of eroded particles affect both the particulate concentration of eroding fluid and the pore network of eroded material. In this study, we examined these modifications using a transport model with a finite element code. First, IE tests on chemically reinforced sand columns were performed to obtain information about eroded material loss of mass, particulate concentration of effluent, porosity and permeability modifications, and existing IE stages. Second, based on experimental results, a mathematical one‐dimensional model has been formulated to monitor the evolution and spatial distribution of erodible solids, fluidized particles, porosity, permeability, and seepage stresses. The model consists of a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations solved in sequence. It provides valuable information about the extent and the dynamics of structural changes, which can be used to estimate an IE time for the hydraulic work to reach failure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perception of the rip current hazard on Galveston Island and North Padre Island,Texas, USA

The hazard posed by a rip current depends in part on the ability of beach users to identify a rip current and to associate surf conditions with the potential for rip currents. Understanding which visual features beach users associated with rip currents is an important step in the development of appropriate programs and educational materials aimed at improving the ability of beach users to identify a rip current. A face-to-face survey (n = 392) was conducted to assess the ability of beach users to identify a rip current using five near eye-level photographs that simulate the view of the beach and surf zone as the respondent approached the beach. The survey was conducted on three heavily used public beaches in Texas (Galveston, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi) at the height of the summer beach season in 2012. Only 13 % of respondents correctly selected the photograph showing the most hazardous conditions and correctly identified the precise location of the rip current on the photograph. The majority of beach users (87 %) incorrectly indicated that the photograph with the heaviest surf represented the most hazardous surf conditions and greatest potential for the development of rip currents, or failed to identify rip currents in photographs. Respondents who were able to correctly identify the rip current tended to recognize the breaking wave pattern, areas of darker water, or the proximity to structures as key visual characteristics of rip currents and also had higher self-reported abilities to swim in rough water and escape a rip current.     

On a novel approach to forecast sparse rare events: applications to Parkfield earthquake prediction

Natural Hazards - Rare events are plentiful in nature and most of them have devastating consequences on human lives and property. Modeling such events is intrinsically challenging due to their very...     

Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in important locations along east and west coasts of India for the period 2000–2010. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their spatial distributions. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern India, with a non-uniform spatial distribution. August and October are identified as most favorable for rip current generation. In India, rip current-related drowning is estimated as 39 per year during the last decade. East coast of India averaged 30–40 drownings, and west coast of India averaged 5–10 drownings per year. In coastal Andhra Pradesh, more than 350 people had been drowned due to rip currents and only 10 people were rescued. Visakhapatnam recorded highest drowning (293); R. K. beach is the most vulnerable potential rip current zones. From 2007 onward, rip current deaths increased at an alarming rate. The frequency of rip current drownings increased markedly during shore-normal wave incidence and mid-low tidal stages. A new empirical forecasting technique has been developed for prediction of rip current risk in India for the first time. FORTRAN-based software was developed to generate automatic rip current forecast report for any given location. The scale’s performance was tested with field data and by using different statistical methods. The new predictive scale is predicting rip current occurrences reasonably well.     

On the time-dependent behaviour of glacial sediments: a geotechnical approach

Soft sediments can deform under both changes in stress and changes in strain rate, as well as during sustained loading (e.g. creep). In glacial conditions, soft subglacial sediments can contribute to glacier movements, and when the ice/sediment system is coupled, the rate-sensitivity of the sub-layer can affect the velocity of the glacier. These issues have been the object of studies by several geologists. In parallel, the effects of time and strain rate on the behaviour of soils have been studied for many years by geotechnical engineers, to estimate the long-term performance of ground structures. This paper applies the knowledge acquired in soil mechanics to a geological problem: results on two glacial sediments of different origins, obtained from advanced geotechnical laboratory tests, are presented and analysed in the light of recent advances in soil mechanics. Independently of time effects, the test data show that the pre-failure behaviour is not elastic but that the sediments develop plastic strains before reaching their peak strength, with the stiffness gradually degrading. Results from tests performed with variable strain rates suggest that the time-dependent (viscous) behaviour of the sediments may be governed by their mineralogy, in particular the presence of plastic fines. The viscous behaviour observed in the plastic tills seems to affect the pre-failure behaviour only, for example the yield surface, stiffness, strength, but the criteria of failure, e.g. critical or residual angle of failure are found to be constant and independent of strain rate. The test data also suggest that the viscous behaviour may be related to stress level, being more prevalent at low stresses. These results, obtained under laboratory-controlled conditions, over a large range of strains, pre- and post-peak strength, are a necessary step towards developing constitutive models for subglacial sediments rigorously. It is only after this has been achieved that such models should be implemented in finite element code to analyse ice/sediment systems, with the aim to understand glacier movements better.     

A mathematical programming approach for scheduling equipment in a surface coal mining operation

Summary A mathematical programming model for scheduling open pit mining was developed and validated using data from a surface mining operation. A two-phase solution procedure was used involving repeated evaluations of an integer scheduling model and a simple transportation model.     

Short communication: public interest in rip currents relative to other natural hazards: evidence from Google search data

Natural Hazards - Informing and warning beach users about the danger posed by the rip current hazard remain a difficult challenge. Recent evidence suggests that warning signs and flags alone have...     

Assessing the resilience of Delhi to climate-related disasters: a comprehensive approach

The study addresses disaster risks in Delhi through a resilience approach. It utilizes the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) tool, which assesses disaster resilience from five dimensions: physical, social, economic, institutional, and natural. Each dimension comprises 5 parameters, and each parameter consists of 5 variables. The study is carried out in the nine revenue districts of Delhi and reveals that East Delhi is least resilient and New Delhi is most resilient. The CDRI analysis in East Delhi points out the urgent need to focus on key parameters such as housing and land use, population, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. On the other hand, New Delhi is the most resilient due to all five dimensions, where most significant parameters responsible for its high resilience are housing and land use, population, income, employment, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. In addition, the overall results of all nine districts show an inverse relationship between resilience score and population density. For example, districts with higher population density show low resilience and vice versa. Moreover, districts located on hazard-prone areas show low resilience. For example, East Delhi and North East Delhi scored low resilience because they both are situated on the Yamuna flood catchment areas. The study further develops key suggestions that are required to address disaster risk in all nine districts of Delhi and discusses future implications of CDRI to address city??s vulnerability. The approach??s distinctness is reflected through its consideration of micro-level diversities and presents some implications to resilience.     

Corundum from basaltic terrains: a mineral inclusion approach to the enigma

 This paper investigates the origin of corundum megacrysts that occur in many basaltic terrains, and which are considered to be eroded from basaltic rocks. Geochemical data for over 80 primary mineral inclusions within corundum megacrysts are used to gain a new insight into the petrogenetic history of the corundum megacrysts. A wide spectrum of minerals is present as inclusions in the corundum; the most common are Nb−Ta oxides (such as titaniferous columbite and uranpyrochlore), alkali feldspar, low-Ca plagioclase (albite-oligoclase) and zircon. Rare inclusions include Fe,Cu-sulphide (low in Ni), cobalt-rich spinel, Th,Ce-rich phosphate and uraninite. The similar chemistry of some inclusion minerals from corundum occurring in widely separated areas suggests that the corundum megacrysts in basalts have a similar petrogenesis. Geochemical characteristics of the inclusions indicate a bimodal grouping, which is best explained by a mixing-hybridisation process. This study indicates that the corundum megacrysts are not cogenetic with their basaltic hosts but are crustal fragments accidentally incorporated into the erupting magma. It is suggested that interactions between a silicic component and an intruding carbonatitic or similar Si-poor magma is responsible for Al-oversaturation, resulting in locally distributed lenses of corundum-bearing rock of mixed paragenesis (“hybrid rock hypothesis”). Feldspar exsolution textures provide strong evidence that this hybridisation occurred at mid-crustal levels. Subsequent volcanic eruptions brought the corundum-bearing rocks (later disintegrated in the magma) up to the Earth's surface. This petrogenetic model for corundum megacrysts is experimentally testable. Received: 15 March 1995 / Accepted: 30 June 1995     

浅谈城市地图的现势性

介绍了城市地图现势性意义,城市地图发展现状及目前存在的问题,为保证城市地图的现势性采取哪些措施等。     

A mathematical approach investigating the production of effective water during coalbed methane well drainage

Drainage of formation water controls pressure dropping behavior of coalbed methane wells. Different behaviors indicate that formation water can be classified into two types. The first type is ineffective water, representing the water from aquifers of strong, extremely strong water yield property, or phreatic water. It is difficult to generate pressure dropping when this type of water is pumped. The other type is effective water, representing the water from aquifers of middle or weak water yield property. Pressure decline will occur if this type of water is pumped. Based on the modified Duipt equation, the production of effective water and the production percentage of ineffective water for well QNPN01 are calculated considering the variations of influence radius, absolute permeability, and relative water permeability. The results show that in the single water flow stage, the production of effective water and the production percentage of ineffective water drop in the zigzag way at first and then keep stable roughly. In the water–gas flow stage, the production of effective water decreases firstly and then keeps stable, while the production percentage of ineffective water increases firstly and then keeps stable. Furthermore, the production of effective water in unit pressure decline indicates that the process of pressure dropping can be divided into four stages. The first one is a single water flow stage in which pressure dropping completely depends on effective water. The second one refers to the beginning of a water–gas flow stage. In the stage, pressure dropping strongly depends on effective water. Pressure dropping caused by effective water drainage starts to be replaced by gas desorbing in the third stage, and completely replaced in the fourth stage.