融入WTO——为农业服务的化工矿产资源发展战略构想

我国直接为农业服务的磷、硫、钾矿资源总体形势不容乐观。针对各自资源特点,应采取不同的发展战略:磷——立足国内,有进有出,南出北进;硫——立足国内,适当进口,调整结构,必要储备;钾——稳定进口,国外开发,国内开发,国内找矿,四位一体,分三步走。为此建议:将磷、硫、钾纳入战略性矿产资源的范畴进行管理和规划;强化地勘队伍,加大找矿力度;增加投入,寻求新的突破;加大“走出去”的步伐;规范进出口秩序;国家在更高的层面进行宏观调控;拓宽为农业服务的新领域。     

中下扬子区二叠系露头层序地层研究

按新近国际年代地层划分方案（ICS，2000），下扬子区二叠纪地层自下向上分为3统，9阶和相对应的华南传统6阶划分。二叠系从阿瑟尔阶至长兴阶（44Ma)共划分出14个三级层序，每个三级层序平均时限约为3.14Ma，其中“紫松阶”）相当阿瑟尔＋2／3萨克马尔阶）1个（船山组中上部）、“隆林阶、（相当1／3萨克马尔阶＋阿丁斯克阶）2个（分别对应船山组上部和梁山组或镇江组）、“栖霞阶”（相当库班甘德阶＋1／3罗德阶）3个（栖霞组），“茅口阶”（相当于2／3罗德阶＋沃德阶＋卡皮丹阶）4个（孤峰组，茅口组，堰桥组，银屏组和武穴组），吴家坪阶2个（龙潭组或吴家坪组），长兴阶2个（长兴组或大隆组）；共归并为4个层序组（sequence set)。     

封闭体系有机质与有机碳氢氮恢复动力学研究

在封闭体系的条件下,对典型的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ型干酪根在热演化过程中的损失进行生烃动力学研究,获得了Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ型干酪根的总量、有机碳、氢以及氮质量损失动力学参数。用Kinetics软件计算了封闭体系干酪根有机碳丰度、氢碳原子比和氮碳原子比的恢复系数。认为在对高成熟—过成熟干酪根进行生烃评价时,Ⅰ、Ⅲ型干酪根残余有机碳丰度需要进行恢复,而Ⅱ型干酪根残余有机碳丰度不需要恢复。三种类型干酪根的氢碳原子比均需要进行恢复。     

Distribution and Elimination of Lead Species in Soils Related to GAP of Chinese Medicinal Materials of Ligusticum Chuanxiong Hort

In this paper, the sequential extraction procedure was used for the selection of fractions of lead in seven stages corresponding to lead exchangeable, lead bounded to carbonates, to manganese oxides, to organic matters, to amorphous iron, and lead associated to crystallized iron, and to residuals. The vertical distributions of lead species were carried out in the soils related to good agriculture progress (GAP) of Chinese medical materials of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort in Dujiangyan city and Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province. Based on those researches, it is found that the plant of Glycine Max (L.) Merr. has the character of lead enrichment and sorption, which is not reported in the literature. Using Glycine Max (L.) Merr. alternate planting with Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort is a valuable recommended in order to produce a high quality Chinese medical materials in order to eliminate the barrier on the beyond the lead limit for the import and export of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort.     

Mineralogy of the Stibnite-Antimonselite Series

Minerals of the stibnite-antimonselite series, in close association with tiemannite, clausthalite, kullerudite, Se-bearing stibioluzonite, native gold, quartz, and barite, were discovered in Cambrian stratabound gold deposits at La'erma and Qiongmo, western Qinling, China. Based on S/(S + Se) ratios of microprobe analyses, the binary stibnite-antimonselite system is divided into four series: stibnite, Se-stibnite, S-antimonselite, and antimonselite. Micro-hardness of the stibnite series (Sb = 58.47 to 72.99 wt%, S = 11.86 to 28.76, and Se = 0.00 to 29.12) and the antimonselite series (Sb = 48.94 to 59.13 wt%, Se = 29.20 to 46.86, S = 1.99 to 11.43) is 101.26 and 103 kg/mm², respectively. Representative reflectivities of the four series are (470 nm) Rg'= 42.62 to 47.62%, Rp' = 30.83 to 40.55%; (550 nm) Rg' = 41.84 to 46.75%, Rp'= 31.48 to 38.85%; (590 nm) Rg' = 42.25 to 46.63%, Rp' = 30.73 to 39.46%; (650 nm) Rg' = 43.30 to 46.48%, Rp' = 30.01 to 41.56%. Cell parameters obtained from two stibnite samples (containing 3 to 5% Se) are a = 1.1209 to 1.1212 nm, b = 1.1299 to 1.1303 nm, c = 0.3847 to 0.3849 nm; and those of S-antimonselite and antimonselite are a = 1.1591 to 1.1593 nm, b = 1.1724 to 1.1747 nm, and c = 0.3941 to 0.3984 nm.     

Usefulness of geological,mineralogical, chemical and chemometric analytical techniques in exploitation and profitability studies of iron mines and their associated elements

Due to the high number of variables involved in mine profitability studies, it is often very difficult to establish connections among them in order to provide a blend of market saleable quality products. In this sense, analytical chemistry together with chemometry are essential and indispensable disciplines to tackle these studies. The aim of this work was to demonstrate the utility of these disciplines to carry out optimization studies of iron mines. For this purpose, one of the most important iron mines of the Iberian Peninsula was chosen, sited in the mountain range of Sierra Menera, near the location of Ojos Negros (Teruel, Spain). Geological, mineralogical and chemical composition of 148 samples was analyzed, corresponding to different depths of three drill holes (named TE1, TE2 and TE3). In particular, aspects concerning to chemical composition are very important, since the mean contents of certain elements, such as phosphorus, sodium and potassium, should be restricted to the established limits to prevent that companies can drive back the raw material if they do not fulfil the necessary requirements. On the other hand, the large number of analysed samples drove us to use a statistical processing of the data. Among other aspects, it provides a way to find possible connections among a high number of variables and classify samples into compositional groups sharing similar composition, in order to limit the mineralised area and to obtain enough information about the amount of those chemical elements associated to iron ores. Data obtained from all these analytical techniques were in good agreement and provide a methodology that can be of wide interest applied to different geological studies.     

应用层次分析法评价富水优势断裂

基岩裂隙水探寻是一项意义重大的研究课题,富水优势断裂的确定是其中的关键。文章详细论述了运用层次分析法寻找富水优势断裂并进行分级的实施方法。这一方法的实施可归纳为"两个前题条件,五个分析步骤,一个结果判断",两个前题条件为富水性功能分类和构建优势指标体系,五个分析步骤为构建层次分析结构模型、构造判断矩阵、层次单排序及其一致性检验、层次总排序、对象层权重总排序;一个结果判断为利用层次分析的结果进行断裂富水性分级,从而最终确定出富水优势断裂。此法为富水优势断裂的定量化评价提供了一种简洁、实用的新方法。      

基于钻进状态监测的智能工况识别

钻进过程状态监测旨在实时描述钻进工况,判断运行性能优劣程度进行非优追溯,及时指导司钻人员调整作业操作,保证钻进过程安全、高效、稳定开展。钻进工况是钻进系统运行状态的反映,因此开展面向状态监测技术的钻进工况识别研究具有重要的理论和应用价值。本文针对钻进工况识别问题,基于状态监测数据,建立基于支持向量机的钻进工况识别模型,对钻进工况进行识别。综合工况识别结果,对钻进效率进行评估,并对影响钻进效率的因素进行讨论,寻找提升钻进效率的手段。最后,采用钻进现场实钻数据进行仿真实验,验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于差分干涉雷达的汶川地震同震形变特点

地震同震形变场是认识震源机制、确定发震断裂、分析发震断裂活动方式、评估震害损失及揭示未来发震趋势的重要依据。但在龙门山地区复杂的自然环境中, 现有的地震同震形变场获取方法(GPS测量、构造形迹分析、震源机制解结合数值模拟计算)难以快速、全面的捕捉到这种信息, 这突显出差分干涉雷达技术(D-InSAR, Differential Interferometry SAR)在同震形变场研究中的优势。本文介绍了其观测原理, 在地震同震形变监测中的研究现状, 并重点分析了已获取的D-InSAR汶川地震同震形变场的观测结果。基于差分干涉雷达观测及相关资料, 对龙门山断裂在本次地震中活动性进行了初步分析, 结果表明干涉雷达形变图像与地表破裂范围、逆冲角度的变化、上下盘升降关系及大型余震的展布存在很强的相关性。      

水质模型研究进展与流域管理模型WARMF评述

分析了以地表水、地下水与非点源为代表的水质模型研究发展历程,揭示了水质模型由经验-机理、单要素(或无机、大量、无毒要素)-多要素(或有机、微量、有毒要素)、单介质-多介质、稳态-动态、点源-非点源-两者统一研究、饱水带-包气带-二者统一研究、小规模分散(河流、湖泊、地下水等)-大规模集成(整个流域)、理论研究-实际应用研究的发展特点。认为当前水质模型正处于由水质研究向以水质为中心的流域管理研究转变的关键时期,给出了一个流域管理新模型WARMF的介绍与特点分析。     

Landslide risk: some issues that determine societal acceptance

This paper illustrates approaches to landslide risk acceptance in various parts of the world in the context of the willingness to accept that risk, the willingness to pay to reduce the risk, and the willingness to alter the environment in the process. These factors are interlinked using the ternary ??willingness diagram?? which is also used to demonstrate how such willingness may change over time and to compare a range of generic approaches to landslide remediation as well as different conceptual approaches to landslide risk management. The willingness construct is intended to provide a readily understood framework for infrastructure owners and operators, amongst others, to understand how their approach to risk management compares with those in other regions, countries and contexts. Issues relevant to the response of society and groups of individuals to landslide risk, its acceptance and management include cultural factors, regulation and planning, budgetary constraints, vehicular vulnerability, and the often limited size of the event footprint compared to the vulnerability shadow that is cast are also discussed.     

湖南省探矿权、采矿权市场现状与发展对策

探矿权、采矿权市场是社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分．培育和规范探矿权、采矿权市场不仅是实现矿产资源利用方式和管理方式转变的根本途径，更是推动矿业经济全面开放。走向健康有序发展的强大动力．湖南省的探矿权、采矿权市场还不发育，与我国市场体制的发展进程和其他各类市场的建设进程相比，很难适应入世的需要．在对湖南省探矿权、采矿权市场现状进行深入分析的基础上，提出了解放思想、整顿秩序、明确政策、加强勘探。严格规划、加强领导等项措施来培育和规范我省探矿权、采矿权市场．     

The potential impact of herbivores on the susceptibility of the marsh plantSagittaria lancifolia to saltwater intrusion in coastal wetlands

The objective of this study was to experimentally evaluate the effects of simulated herbivory on the ability of a freshwater marsh plant to recover from temporary saltwater intrusion such as can be caused by tropical storms. Sods containingSagittaria lancifolia, a dominant plant in interior coastal marshes, were manipulated in the field so as to subject plants to a pulse of 15‰ salt water for a duration of 1 wk. In addition to the exposure to salt water, some plants were also subjected to both short-term and long-term flooding treatments of 20 cm, and to simulated herbivory (clipping). Following exposure to salt water, plants were allowed to recover over the winter and were harvested the next June. Neither simulated herbivory, nor salinity, nor flooding caused any long-term effect either singly or in pairwise combinations. However, when plants were subjected to herbivory, salt water, and flooding simultaneously, reduced growth and plant death occurred. These results suggest that high levels of grazing by herbivores may increase the susceptibility of coastal marsh plants to damage from saltwater intrusion. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY073 00002     

Severity scale for tornadoes

Tornadoes are the most destructive winds created by nature. Sometimes tornadoes are strong enough to destroy most things in their path. These types of tornadoes are few compared to all tornadoes confirmed/reported. Currently, existing scales describe severity levels in terms of intensity/magnitude, and they are not sufficient to clearly distinguish the severity level. Several discrepancies between various sources of information complicate the interpretation of trends in tornado data. As a solution to these inconsistencies, a technique is required to compare the severity level of tornadoes. Impact factors, such as the number of fatalities, number of injuries, number of homeless, affected population, affected area, and cost of damage, can be considered to evaluate the severity levels. Prior experience, preparedness, awareness, evolving technology, mitigation methods, and early warning systems may minimize the number of fatalities and injuries. Models are used to identify which of the above factors should be considered in a severity scale to indicate the seriousness of tornadoes. However, the lack of data prevents an in-depth analysis of tornado severity. Extreme value theory is used to study potential severity levels of tornadoes. This paper attempts to develop an initial severity scale for tornadoes, which is a primary stage to develop a multi-dimensional severity scale. This common scale provides the criteria to rank tornadoes and allows the impact of one tornado to be compared to the impact of another tornado. Further, the scale allows the impact of a tornado to be compared to any type of natural disaster that occurs.     

三江地区含锡花岗岩Rb—Sr等时线年龄

通过含锡花岗岩全岩Rb-Sr等时线年龄研究,哀牢山-金沙江锡矿带的含锡花岗岩形成于燕山中晚期(133～80Ma);临沧-左贡锡矿带的年龄范围648～370Ma,相当于徵江期到海西期;潞西-腾冲锡矿带,属于燕山晚期到喜山期(105～51Ma)。     

A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation to the Pareto front of optimal short-term and long-term trade-offs. However, such methods rely on a large number of reservoir simulations and scale poorly with the number of objectives subject to optimization. Consequently, the large-scale nature of production optimization severely limits applications to real-life scenarios. More practical alternatives include ad hoc hierarchical switching schemes. As a drawback, such methods lack robustness due to unclear convergence properties and do not naturally generalize to cases of more than two objectives. Also, as this paper shows, the hierarchical formulation may skew the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical approaches, the method is guaranteed to converge to a Pareto optimal point. Also, the LS method is designed to properly balance multiple objectives, independently of Pareto front’s shape. As such, the method poses a practical alternative to a posteriori methods in situations where the frontier is intractable to generate.     

The comparison of discrete payment vehicle methods (dichotomous choice) in improving the quality of the environment

Using methods to estimate the value of environmental goods seems to be essential for economic planning and moving toward development. In this paper, using methods of discrete payment vehicle (dichotomous choice), i.e., single-bounded and Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice, the value of air pollution in Tehran and households’ willingness to pay to improve air quality, in four selected regions (Shahr-e-Ray, Shoosh, Haft-e-Tir and Tajrish) is estimated and the corresponding results of these two techniques were compared. The results showed that the total value of air quality improvement, calculated through two techniques of Double-Bounded and Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice were, respectively, 2,398,657,500 and 1,492,566,000 thousands Rials (1USD = 35,000R) in a year and weighted mean of each citizen’s willingness to pay to improve air quality, calculated through these two methods was estimated to be 282,192 and 175,596 Rials in a year, respectively. Considering the annual damage to health, for any 1% increase in pollutants and yearly cost of pollution reduction which are, respectively, 1,199,000,000 and 7,336,000,000 thousands Rials, it was determined that citizens’ willingness to pay through two methods includes 20 and 30% of the cost of pollution control, respectively, while 70% of pollution is due to mobile sources. However, citizens’ low willingness to pay is attributed to citizens’ distrust of government policies as well as their ignorance of the harmful effects of air pollution. In general, the results of this study, with regard to the cost of pollution from Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice are closer to actual market conditions.     

河南省地震活动趋势分析

河南省东北部属华北地洼区烈震区南延部分,西南部属华中地洼区中强震区。历史上发生5级及5级以上的地震18次,依规律可分淅川-南阳、信阳-商城、菏泽-许昌、安阳-新乡,洛阳-灵宝5个构造地震带,空间分布规律:长期隆起强烈坳陷区;不同构造单元交接处地貌反差明显的下降一侧:新生代后大面积沉降背景下差异下降显著部位;上述部位几组断裂交叉处是发震有利场所。时空迁移规律:南阳、信阳-商城地震活动动向有待进一步研究;菏泽-许昌构造中强震线,地震活动以双震形式跳跃式往返迁移;安阳-新乡构造中强震线。有南北往返递迁规律;豫北不同地震线间有由东向西波浪状转化递迁规律。许昌、安阳-新乡、洛阳-灵宝一带,存在着发生中强地震危险性。     

Research on Outcrop Sequence Stratigraphy of Permian in Middle—Lower Yangtze Region

According to the latest International Chronostratigraphic Scheme (ICS, 2000), the Permian in the Middle-Lower Yangtze region of South China can e divided into three series and nine stages relevant to the traditional six stages of South China. From Assellian to Changxingian of Permian, 44 Main age range, the strata are composed of 14 third-order sequences, each of which is 3.14 Ma in average age range. There is one third-order sequence of Zisongian, equivalent to middle and upper Chuanshan Formation or equal to Asselian and two thirds of Sakmarian. There are two third-order sequences, corresponding to Liang-shan Formation or Zhenjiang Formation and upper Chuanshan Formation, which are assigned to Longlingian, coinciding with Artinskian and one third of Sakmarian. In addition, three third-order sequences, equal to Qixia Formation, are attributed to Chhsian, corresponding to Kubergandian and one third of Roadian. Four third-order sequences, comprising Gufeng, Maokou, Yanqiao,Yinping and Wuxue formations, are assigned to Maokouan, equivalent to two thirds of Roadian, Wordian and Capitanian. Two third-order sequences, equal to Longtan Formation or Wujiaping Formation, are included in Wuchiapingian. Other two third-order sequences, corresponding to changxing Formation or Dalong Formation, are assigned to Changhsingian. In brief, these above third-order sequences can be incorporated into 4 sequences sets.