Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Historical tsunamis and storms recorded in a coastal lowland,Shizuoka Prefecture,along the Pacific Coast of Japan

Four sand units deposited by tsunamis and one sand unit deposited by storm surge(s) were identified in a muddy marsh succession in a narrow coastal lowland along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Tsunamis in ad 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854 that were related to large subduction‐zone earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, and storm surges in 1680 and/or 1699 were responsible for the deposition of these sand units. These sand units are distinguished by lithofacies, sedimentary structures, grain‐size and mineral composition, and radiocarbon ages; their ages are supported by events in local historical records. The tsunami deposits in the study area are massive or parallel‐laminated sands, with associated intraclasts, gravels, draping mud layers and, rarely, a return‐flow subunit. The storm surge deposits are devoid of these characteristics, and are composed of groups of thin, current ripple‐laminated sand layers. The differences in sedimentary structures between the tsunami and storm surge deposits are attributed to the different characteristics of tsunami and storm waves.     

A near-fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj,located in the Kazerun fault system,southwest Iran

Natural Hazards - The Kazerun fault system (KFS) is located in the central part of the Zagros, the most seismically active orogenic belt in the Iranian plateau. The city of Yasouj is located in the...     

Predicting seiche hazard for coastal harbours along the northern and western coasts of France

Natural Hazards - Long-period waves propagating inside harbours can lead to the generation of seiche that can affect and significantly disrupt port operations. This study is based on the analysis...     

鲜水河断裂带乾宁段晚第四纪走滑速率及区域强震危险性研究

活动断裂几何学特征及滑动速率是研究断裂运动学、动力学机制及其评估区域强震危险性的重要依据。青藏高原东缘左行走滑的鲜水河断裂带是控制高原物质向南东挤出的重要边界,是中国陆内活动性最强的断裂之一。本文以鲜水河断裂带北西段为研究对象,通过高精度遥感影像解译、野外考察、OSL(光释光)和¹⁴C测年方法以及LiDAR(激光雷达)扫描获得乾宁段龙灯乡冲积阶地的位错量和废弃年龄。T4和T3′水平位错量分别为106±5 m和77±2 m, T4阶地垂直位错量为9.6±0.5 m。T4和T3′阶地的废弃年龄分别为11±1 ka和7±1 ka。结合对应的年龄和位错量,得到乾宁段晚第四纪走滑速率左行走滑速率为10.5±1 mm/a,垂直滑动速率为0.9±0.1 mm/a,断层倾向北东,具有正断运动学特征。通过重新计算断裂两侧GPS矢量沿断裂方向分量,得到鲜水河断裂带炉霍段、炉霍—康定段、磨西段现今左行走滑速率分别约为8.1 mm/a、8.2 mm/a、9.4 mm/a,整体表现为自北西向南东递增。综合乾宁段晚第四纪走滑速率和最新强震活动的离逝时间估算,认为鲜水河断裂带乾宁段目前应变累积...     

Active fault mapping: An initiative towards seismic hazard assessment in India

Identification and characterization of active faults and deciphering their seismic potential are of vital importance in seismic hazard assessment of any region. Seismic vulnerability of India is well known as more than 60 % of its area lies in high hazard zones due to the presence of major active faults in its plate boundaries and continental interiors, which produced large earthquakes in the past and have potential to generate major earthquakes in future. The safety of critical establishments, like Power plants, Refinaries and other lifeline structures is a major concern in these areas and calls for a better characterization of these faults to help mitigate the impact of future earthquakes. The paper provides a brief overview of the work carried out in India on active fault research, its limitations and immediate priorities.     

Holocene Environmental Change and River-Mouth Sedimentation in the Baie des Anges, French Riviera

River mouths on the steep, high-relief coast of the French Riviera exhibit thick sequences of Holocene marine, estuarine, deltaic, and river channel-floodplain sediments that overlie basal fluvial Pleistocene gravel. Gravel is uncommon in most of the early to middle Holocene aggradational-progradational marine, estuarine, deltaic sediments, despite an ample supply from rock units in the steep adjoining uplands. River-mouth gravel is common only in late Holocene river channels and in barrier beaches perched on finer-grained nearshore sediments. Neither downslope grain-size fining on alluvial fans nor sediment stacking patterns during sea-level (base-level) rise readily account for the lack of early to middle Holocene gravel in the river-mouth sediment wedges. Holocene sea-level rise led to the storage of fine-grained sediments in shallow marine, estuarine, and deltaic environments in the present coastal zone. We infer that humid temperate conditions, a dense forest cover, landscape stabilization, and a regular quiescent river flow regime associated with the Atlantic climatic optimum limited gravel supply in the adjoining catchments and gravel entrainment downstream during the early Holocene. Sea-level stabilization in the middle and late Holocene coincided with a marked change in bioclimatic conditions toward the present Mediterranean-type regime, which is characterized by a less dense forest cover, soil erosion, and episodic catastrophic floods. The late Holocene was thus a time of downstream bedload channel aggradation, fine-grained floodplain and paludal sedimentation, and seaward flushing of clasts leading to the formation and consolidation of the gravel barrier beaches that bound the rivermouths and embayments.     

Rockfall hazard assessment along a road in the Sorrento Peninsula,Campania, southern Italy

Rockfalls are common in the steep and vertical slopes of the Campania carbonate massifs and ridges, and frequently represent the main threat to the anthropogenic environment, potentially damaging urban areas, scattered houses, roads, etc. Despite the generally limited volumes involved, the high velocity of movement (from few to tens of metres per second) poses rockfalls among the most dangerous natural hazards to man. Evaluating the rockfall hazard is not an easy task, due to the high number of involved factors, and particularly to the difficulty in determining the properties of the rock mass. In this paper, we illustrate the assessment of the rockfall hazard along a small area of the Sorrento Peninsula (Campania region, southern Italy). Choice of the site was determined by the presence of a road heavily frequented by vehicles. In the area, we have carried out detailed field surveys and software simulations that allow generating simple rockfall hazard maps. Over twenty measurement stations for geo-mechanical characterization of the rock mass have been distributed along a 400-m-long slope of Mount Vico Alvano. Following the internationally established standards for the acquisition of rock mass parameters, the main kinematics have been recognized, and the discontinuity families leading to the different failures identified. After carrying out field experiments by artificially releasing a number of unstable blocks on the rock cliff, the rockfall trajectories along the slope were modelled using 2-D and 3-D programs for rockfall analysis. The results were exploited to evaluate the rockfall hazard along the threatened element at risk.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

基于GIS的万州示范区地质灾害灾情评估系统设计

文章结合地质灾害灾情评估的特点和发展需要，提出运用地理信息系统(GIS)先进技术进行地质灾害灾情评估的框架，讨论以地理信息系统为开发平台的区域地质灾害灾情评估系统的设计。建立系统总体框架、工作流程，以及灾情评估模型的模块功能。该设计结合当前地质灾害管理、评估的需要，为区域地质灾害评估提供了一个应用例证。     

青藏高原东南缘德钦- 中甸断裂中北段活动性及地震危险性评估

青藏高原的隆升和向东挤出使得青藏高原内部和周缘形成一系列强烈变形的次级块体,川滇地块是其中变形最为活跃的地块。德钦 中甸断裂是川滇地块的西边界断裂之一,晚第四纪以来断裂主要表现为右旋滑动,同时发育倾滑分量。在奔子栏镇 瓦卡镇以南至中甸一带,断层发育明显的正倾滑分量,在奔子栏镇 瓦卡镇以北则发育明显的逆倾滑分量。奔子栏镇一带是断层运动特征的改变部位,也是断层宏观走向改变的部位,这些特征表明奔子栏镇更是德钦 中甸走滑断裂的枢纽部位。研究表明德钦 中甸断裂在奔子栏镇附近的古地震平均复发周期为11. 35±2. 4ka,长期滑动速率1. 3~1. 7mm/a。按照构造类比原则,奔子栏镇是德钦 中甸断裂的地震成核部位,其潜在震级下限不会低于M7,潜在地震烈度下限不会低于Ⅹ度。     

2008年汶川8.0级地震的发震构造:沿龙门山断裂带新生的地壳深部断裂

在区域地质构造研究中,龙门山断裂带也称为龙门山褶皱-冲断带或推覆构造带。许多研究者认为,2008年汶川8级地震的发震构造是这条断裂带或其中央映秀—北川断裂。笔者在深入分析龙门山断裂带的构造演化和岩石圈结构构造特征的基础上,着重探讨8级地震的发震构造,提出不同的认识。龙门山断裂带经历了松潘—甘孜造山带的前陆褶皱-冲断带(T3-J)、造山带(K-E)和青藏高原边缘隆起带(N-Q)3个动力学条件不同的演化阶段,在前两个阶段断裂带递进发展,第三阶段断裂带则被改造。从三维空间看,龙门山断裂带位于松潘—甘孜地块东南缘的上地壳内,并被推覆到扬子陆块上;而松潘—甘孜地块的中—下地壳和岩石圈地幔发生韧性增厚,而且向扬子陆块壳下俯冲,从而使浅、深部构造在垂向上形成吞噬扬子地块的鳄鱼嘴式结构。虽然在平面上汶川8级地震的主余震分布与映秀—北川断裂一致,但从剖面上看其震源所构成的震源破裂体位于龙门山断裂带之下的扬子陆块内。这种不一致性表明,8级地震的发震构造不是龙门山断裂带,而是扬子陆块内新生的高角度断裂,其走向基本与龙门山断裂带一致。推测这一震源断裂的形成过程是:当松潘—甘孜地块向东南推挤时,其前缘鳄鱼嘴构造咬合并错断被吞噬的扬子陆块部分,形成具有右旋逆平移性质的新断裂,导致汶川8级地震的发生。     

从苏门答腊-安达曼到日本东北:特大地震及其引发的超级海啸的启示

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼MW9.1地震及印度洋超级海啸,以及2011年日本东北MW9.0地震及海啸与核泄漏,给人类带来了巨大的灾难。这两次灾难的接连发生充分暴露了迄今我们对于地震发生规律的认识水平还是很低的,启示我们需要继续加强对地震发生的规律性与地震预测预报的研究。在地震危险性评估中,要努力克服经验性方法的局限性,加强地应力测量以确定断层接近破裂的程度,更直接地估计地震危险性;要最大限度地运用地震、大地测量、地质、地貌等所有可资利用的资料,尽快将学术研究成果应用于防灾减灾实践。要重视不同观测资料的整合集成。要加强学科与学科之间的交叉渗透,自然科学与社会科学之间的合作交流,以及科学界与决策者和社会公众的相互沟通。要加强在海域对地震、海啸的多学科、多手段的监测工作,加强地震破裂过程复杂性的理论与应用研究,提高对地震、海啸(包括局地海啸)的监测、预测预报与预警水平。     

广东沿海陆地地质灾害系统与灾害动力学

依据地质灾害发生的动力学机制以及对地表的影响深度和灾害载体的运动特征，将广东陆地地质灾害划分为三类灾害系，即表层灾害系、表－浅层灾害系和表－深层灾害系，其影响因素和动力源是大气圈、水圈、岩石圈、生物圈及人文圈（人类活动）。五大圈造成了地质灾害系的形成、演化和发展，又反过来影响这五大圈的变化。灾害系的能量源归属于三大类：日地系统、地球系统和人类系统。文中指出人类系统的能量源在地质环境和地质灾害的形成、演化中占有越来越重要的地位。     

Hydrogeochemical assessment of groundwater quality along the coastal aquifers of southern Tamil Nadu,India

Hydrogeochemical investigation of groundwater has been carried out in the coastal aquifers of southern Tamil Nadu, India. Seventy-nine dug well samples were collected and analyzed for various physicochemical parameters. The result of the geochemical analysis indicates the groundwater in the study area is slightly alkaline with moderate saline water. The cation and anion concentrations confirm most of the groundwater samples belong to the order of Na⁺ > Mg²⁺ > Ca²⁺ > K⁺ and Cl^? > SO₄ ^2? > HCO₃ ^?. Thereby three major hydrochemical facies (Ca–Cl, mixed Ca–Mg–Cl and Na–Cl) were identified. Based on the US Salinity diagram, majority of the samples fall under medium to very high salinity with low to high sodium hazard. The cross plot of Ca²⁺ + Mg²⁺ versus chloride shows 61 % of the samples fall under saline water category. Higher EC, TDS and Cl concentrations were observed from Tiruchendur to Koodankulam coastal zone. It indicates that these regions are significantly affected by saltwater contamination due to seawater intrusion, saltpan deposits, and beach placer mining activities.     

Peculiarities of tsunamis generated by Asteroid impact or nuclear explosions in the northwest of Black Sea

Different models are used to evaluate the seashore effects of the tsunami generated by an asteroid impacting the shallow-water plateau in the northwest basin of the Black Sea. The shortest distance between the impact location and the coast is about 185 km. The tsunami’s effects on the coastal regions depend on many factors among which the most important is asteroid size. The tsunami generated by a 250-m asteroid reaches the nearest dry land location in 35 min and needs about 2 h to arrive all over the Black Sea coast. The run-up value is about 2 m high on Turkish and Crimean coasts. In the western Black Sea regions, the wave height is about 3 m. The run-up values strongly depend on bathymetry and topography peculiarities. The run-up values in case of the tsunami generated by a 1,000-m-sized asteroid are up to five to six times larger than in case of the 250-m impactor, depending on location. Differences between the tsunami’s dynamics on coastal regions situated in the proximity of deep water and shallow water, respectively, are outlined. Aspects concerning accidental or deliberate nuclear explosions are briefly referred. Possible social consequences and prevention are shortly discussed.     

新生代阿尔金断裂带的演化:来自沿线盆地沉积记录的启示SCIEI北大核心CSCD

阿尔金断裂带是青藏高原自印度与欧亚大陆碰撞后向北扩展的前缘断裂,其新生代活动性对于研究青藏高原隆升与扩展过程和机制具有重要意义。近些年,运用热年代学、断裂几何学和运动学、沉积学、磁性地层学和地震学等方法对阿尔金断裂带的性质、组成结构、断裂活动时代、走滑断裂运动特征、走滑位移量和走滑速率等进行了细致的研究,而对阿尔金断裂带沿线受其控制的新生代沉积盆地的地层年代、沉积演化特征虽然也有一定研究,但往往仅限于单个盆地,缺乏对沿线盆地整体的对比认识,造成对阿尔金断裂带走滑起始时间及阿尔金山的隆升历史存在不同的认识。本文对近二十年来阿尔金断裂带沿线新生代沉积盆地的磁性地层年代与沉积相演化的研究进展进行综述,建立阿尔金断裂带沿线盆地新生代沉积序列和年代框架;辅助热年代学等资料,提出阿尔金断裂带的三阶段演化模型:始新世-中中新世,阿尔金断裂带以大幅度的走滑运动为主,同时伴随着阿尔金山小范围的隆升;中中新世开始,阿尔金山开始大规模的隆升,伴随着较少量的走滑运动;晚中新世以来,阿尔金断裂带构造活动加强。     

青海西南部乌丽活动断裂系的地质特征及灾害效应

乌丽活动断裂系发育于乌丽山地,是青藏高原北部重要的区域性活动构造体系,由乌丽北山活动断裂、乌丽盆缘活动断裂和乌丽南山活动断裂所组成,主要包括17条不同规模、不同性质的活动断层。大部分活动断层属左旋斜滑断层,部分活动断层为左旋走滑断层。据地质观测资料估算,典型活动断层全新世左旋走滑速度分量为1．2—3．5mm／a、垂直下滑速度分量为0．5—3．5mm／a。沿乌丽活动断裂系发育5条宽100—400m的构造裂缝带、大量串珠状冰丘群与少量移动冰丘,构造裂缝产生的高密度地表破裂和移动冰丘造成的地表拱曲变形是影响青藏铁路、公路线路工程安全的主要地质灾害。